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Week 16 DraftKings Tournament Picks

By Jared Smola | Updated on Mon, 11 Mar 2024 . 4:21 PM EDT

Stacks

Jaguars at Buccaneers

There’s a lot to like about this game from a tournament stacking perspective.

For starters, these are two bad pass defenses.

Jacksonville ranks 25th in pass defense DVOA over the last five weeks, allowing 8.2 yards per attempt. The Jags sit 27th in adjusted fantasy points allowed to QBs and 28th to WRs.

The Bucs check in 19th in pass defense DVOA over the last five weeks – which is actually a slight improvement from where they were over the first 10 weeks. Tampa Bay sits 26th in adjusted fantasy points allowed to QBs and 30th to WRs.

But both of these defenses play the run tough. As a result, they rank third (Jacksonville) and fourth (Tampa Bay) in pass rate over expected against.

In other words, offenses tend to shift significantly toward the pass against both of these defenses.

So this game has the potential to turn into a pass-happy shootout.

The availability of QB Trevor Lawrence ($6,600) boosts the odds of a shootout.

And this game is easily stackable because these are concentrated passing games.

On the Bucs side, WR Mike Evans ($7,600), WR Chris Godwin ($6,200), and RB Rachaad White ($7,400) have combined to account for:

  • 59% of the team’s targets
  • 62% of the receptions
  • 71% of the receiving yards
  • 63% of the receiving yards

White is a particularly intriguing stack with QB Baker Mayfield ($6,000) because the Jaguars have allowed the most catches and third most receiving yards to RBs.

The Jaguars passing game has become much more concentrated with the injuries to WRs Christian Kirk and Zay Jones.

If Lawrence has a big game against Tampa, there’s a good chance that WR Calvin Ridley ($6,300) and TE Evan Engram ($5,400) come along for the ride.

If you’re building multiple Lawrence teams, you can also consider RB Travis Etienne ($6,600) and WR Parker Washington ($3,800).

Also consider:

  • Justin Fields ($7,100) + D.J. Moore ($6,900)
  • Joe Flacco ($5,500) + Amari Cooper ($6,400) + David Njoku ($5,300)
  • Nick Mullens ($5,300) + Justin Jefferson ($8,100)
  • Geno Smith ($5,800) + D.K. Metcalf ($6,700)

 

Running Backs

Bijan Robinson, Falcons ($6,300)

Last week sucked if you were invested in Robinson.

But it also gives us an opportunity to get him this week at significantly deflated ownership in an awesome spot.

Robinson’s Falcons are 2.5-point home favorites with a 23.5-point implied total – fourth highest on the main slate.

And he gets a Colts defense that ranks:

  • 31st in pass rate over expected against
  • 23rd in run defense DVOA
  • 30th in adjusted fantasy points allowed to RBs

It’s easy to forget after last week’s dud, but Robinson was rolling heading into that game. In his previous four outings, he averaged 16.5 carries, 5.0 targets, and 18.9 DK points.

If last week was wiped from everyone’s memory, Robinson would be 25% owned this week. Instead, he’s projected for just 14%.

Ken Walker, Seahawks ($6,200)

Walker is dealing with a shoulder injury that has him listed as questionable, so he doesn’t come without risk.

But HC Pete Carroll said Friday that Walker will play. And if he does, he’ll find himself in a sneaky good spot.

A usually stout Titans run defense has struggled the past two weeks without DT Jeffery Simmons, allowing 284 yards and two TDs on 5.1 yards per carry to Dolphins and Texans RBs.

Simmons landed on IR this week. And Tennessee will also be missing LB Jack Gibbens, S Amani Hooker, and S K’Von Wallace on Sunday. This is a banged-up defense.

The Seahawks get QB Geno Smith back this week, which should be a boost for the entire offense. They’re implied for a solid 22.5 points – sixth most on the main slate.

Also consider:

  • Rachaad White, Bucs ($7,400)
  • Jonathan Taylor, Colts ($7,200)
  • Jahmyr Gibbs, Lions ($7,000)
  • David Montgomery, Lions ($6,900)
  • Chuba Hubbard, Panthers ($5,700)
  • Ty Chandler, Vikings ($5,600)
  • Devin Singletary, Texans ($5,500)

TIP

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Wide Receivers

D.K. Metcalf, Seahawks ($6,700)

We talked about Tennessee’s defensive injuries adding to RB Ken Walker’s upside. The Titans will also be missing starting CB Sean Murphy-Bunting on Sunday.

And this is already a bad pass defense that ranks 27th in DVOA and 26th in adjusted fantasy points allowed to WRs.

Tyler Lockett and Jaxon Smith-Njigba are in play, too. But Metcalf is the Seattle WR with tournament-tilting upside. He went for 40 DK points vs. the Cowboys just a few weeks ago.

 

Garrett Wilson, Jets ($5,800)

Yes, QB Trevor Siemian is bad. But Washington’s pass defense is worse.

The Commanders rank dead last in adjusted fantasy points allowed to WRs. They’ve been especially bad against opposing No. 1 WRs, allowing them a whopping 102 yards per game. That’s 12 more yards than any other defense.

Wilson, who’s averaging 9.9 targets per game, will be running open all game on Sunday. We just need Siemian to hit him a handful of times.

Also consider:

  • CeeDee Lamb, Cowboys ($9,200)
  • Justin Jefferson, Vikings ($8,100)
  • Mike Evans, Bucs ($7,600)
  • D.J. Moore, Bears ($6,900)
  • Amari Cooper, Browns ($6,400)
  • Calvin Ridley, Jaguars ($6,300)
  • Chris Godwin, Bucs ($6,200)
  • DeAndre Hopkins, Titans ($6,100)
  • Drake London, Falcons ($5,100)
  • Dontayvion Wicks, Packers ($4,300)
  • Jameson Williams, Lions ($3,700)
  • Michael Wilson, Cardinals ($3,700)

 

Tight Ends

David Njoku, Browns ($5,300)

The red-hot Trey McBride is an awesome play. 

But Njoku has similar upside – and I expect to get him at significantly lower ownership than the Cardinal.

Njoku has scored 27.1 and 29.4 DK points in his last two outings. 

He’s benefiting from a Browns offense that’s gone pass-heavy under QB Joe Flacco, throwing on 67% of their offensive snaps over the past three games. Njoku has racked up 28 targets on a 21% share in those contests.

Sunday brings a trip to Houston for a Texans defense that ranks 29th in adjusted fantasy points allowed to TEs.

Also consider:

  • Trey McBride, Cardinals ($5,700)
  • Jake Ferguson, Cowboys ($4,900)
  • Kyle Pitts, Falcons ($4,000)
  • Chig Okonkwo, Seahawks ($3,100)

 

Defense/Special Teams

Jets ($3,100)

Cowboys ($3,000)

Bears ($2,800)

 

Jared Smola Author Image
Jared Smola, Lead Analyst
Jared has been with Draft Sharks since 2007. He’s now Lead Analyst, heading up the preseason and weekly projections that fuel your Draft War Room and My Team tools. He currently ranks 1st among 133 analysts in draft rankings accuracy.
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