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Week 2 DraftKings Tournament Picks

By Jared Smola 10:27pm EDT 9/16/23

Stacks

Josh Allen ($7,900) + Stefon Diggs ($8,000) + Gabe Davis ($5,800) or Dalton Kincaid ($3,300)

The Bills go from a road game against an elite Jets defense to a home game against a leaky Raiders D.

It’s an obvious bounce-back spot. Buffalo’s 27.75-point implied total is highest on the main slate.

Allen and Diggs won’t fly under the DFS radar. 

But Davis and Kincaid surprisingly are. Both guys are projected for sub-5% ownership.

Davis is in a nice spot against a zone-heavy Raiders pass defense. He’s been more effective against zone than man throughout his career. Vegas also has a feeble pass rush, which should allow Davis to work downfield.

Kincaid is a salary saver with exciting upside. The rookie ran the seventh most routes (39) among TEs in Week 1. That’s what happens when you register a 76% route rate in a pass-happy offense.

I also like the Bills stack this week because if the Raiders are going to push back, we know who’s going to be doing the pushing. RB Josh Jacobs ($7,100) and WR Davante Adams ($7,600) are excellent runbacks.

Justin Herbert ($7,000) + Keenan Allen ($7,100) + Mike Williams ($5,700)

Herbert and Co. disappointed in Week 1 because the Chargers went much run-heavier than expected.

But, at second glance, OC Kellen Moore’s game plan made sense. Dolphins DC Vic Fangio deploys a heavy two-high scheme that invites opposing offenses to run. The Chargers took what the defense gave them – and had success on the ground.

The matchup is completely different this weekend. The Titans have been one of the biggest pass funnels in the NFL for a few seasons, and that continued in Week 1. They limited RB Jamaal Williams to 2.5 yards per carry but coughed up 9.2 yards per pass attempt to QB Derek Carr.

So we should expect Moore to call a pass-heavy game plan this Sunday, especially with RB Austin Ekeler out.

Allen looked like the focal point of Los Angeles’ passing game in the opener, drawing a 27.3% target share. He’s tough to leave out of Herbert lineups.

But this matchup is especially strong for Williams, who remains the Chargers’ best big-play threat. The Titans allowed the most fantasy points to WRs on passes 20+ yards downfield last year and allowed the fourth most in Week 1.

Tennessee will be without CB Kristian Fulton and S Amani Hooker on Sunday.

Also consider: Joe Burrow ($6,900) + Ja’Marr Chase ($7,900) + Tee Higgins ($6,400), Jared Goff ($6,200) + Amon-Ra St. Brown ($7,800) + Sam LaPorta ($3,900)

 

Running Backs

Derrick Henry, Titans ($7,400)

I like Henry as a runback on Justin Herbert teams or as part of a ministack with Keenan Allen or Mike Williams.

Tyjae Spears leading Titans RBs in Week 1 snaps was a big fantasy storyline – and figures to depress Henry’s ownership this week. 

But Henry still out-carried Spears 15 to three in that game and saw three targets. He remains the focal point of this offense. That should especially be the case this week because …

  1. Ryan Tannehill was awful last week.
  2. DeAndre Hopkins will be out or limited.
  3. The Chargers are a run-funnel defense.

James Cook, Bills ($6,100)

If I’m not stacking the Bills passing game, I’m playing their lead back.

Cook didn’t put up big fantasy numbers against a stout Jets defense last week, but the usage was strong: 12 carries and six targets on a 59% snap rate.

The spot doesn’t get much better than this week, with the Bills 8.5-point home favorites with a 27.75-point implied total.

Kenneth Walker, Seahawks ($5,800)

I’m surprised to see Walker projected for just 9% ownership. If he comes anywhere near that level, he’s an excellent tournament play.

Walker operated as Seattle’s clear lead ball-carrier and pass-catching RB in the opener. He played 64% of the snaps, handled 12 of 17 RB carries (71%), and drew a 19.2% target share.

That type of usage in a game vs. the Lions with shootout potential gives Walker an exciting ceiling. He was still in a bit role when these two teams produced 93 points last year. But RB Rashaad Penny ripped off 151 yards and two TDs on 17 carries in that one.

Also consider: Christian McCaffrey ($8,900), Tony Pollard ($7,500), Josh Jacobs ($7,100), Jahmyr Gibbs ($6,300)

 

Wide Receivers

Deebo Samuel ($5,600) and Jahan Dotson ($4,900), who I highlighted in this week’s cash-game article, will be staples on my tournament teams. Dotson is an especially strong play at 3% projected ownership.

D.K. Metcalf ($7,000) and Tyler Lockett ($6,100), Seahawks

Seattle’s offense was one of the biggest disappointments of Week 1.

And I won’t pretend to be completely confident that it’ll bounce back. QB Geno Smith’s play tailed off over the second half of last season, and he wasn’t very good in the opener. Plus, both of the Seahawks’ starting OTs are out this week.

But if this offense rebounds, Metcalf and Lockett have tournament-winning upside.

The matchup against Detroit’s secondary isn’t scary. This game has shootout potential. And Metcalf and Lockett are both projected for sub-5% ownership at reasonable salaries.

Nico Collins, Texans ($4,800)

This play got riskier with QB C.J. Stroud’s shoulder issue. But DFS tournaments are the place to take risks.

Collins still has exciting upside based on his projected usage and the Colts matchup.

Houston deployed a surprisingly fast-paced and pass-leaning offense in the opener, ranking third in neutral pace and ninth in Pass Rate Over Expected.

Collins was the lead dog in that passing game. He drew 11 targets (25% share) and racked up 158 air yards – third most league-wide.

As for the matchup, the Colts secondary looked like one to attack heading into the season. It allowed 165 yards and two TDs in Jaguars WRs in Week 1.

Also consider: Ja’Marr Chase ($7,900), Davante Adams ($7,600), Calvin Ridley ($7,200), Tee Higgins ($6,400), Mike Williams ($5,700), Christian Kirk ($5,100), Zay Flowers ($5,000)

 

Tight Ends

Sam LaPorta, Lions ($3,900)

LaPorta registered strong usage metrics in his debut last week: a 73% route rate and 14.3% target share.

He should be central to Detroit’s Week 2 game plan against a Seahawks defense that struggles defending the middle of the field. 

Rams QB Matt Stafford completed 16 of 22 passes (72.7%) for 172 yards (7.8 YPA) over the middle of the field vs. Seattle in the opener.

Also consider: Dalton Kincaid ($3,300), Chig Okonkwo ($3,300), Luke Musgrave ($3,200)

 

Defense/Specials Teams

Cowboys ($4,000)

Buccaneers ($3,200)

Jets ($2,700)

Cardinals ($2,600)

 

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