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Week 6 DraftKings Tournament Picks

By Jared Smola 9:56pm EDT 10/14/23

Stacks

Matt Stafford ($6,100) + Cooper Kupp ($9,000) and/or Puka Nacua ($8,000) and/or Tutu Atwell ($5,100)

Stafford isn’t sneaking up on anyone. In fact, our ownership projections have him as the most popular play among QBs at 14%.

I’m willing to eat that ownership in what looks like a blowup spot.

Stafford has been on the wrong side of TD variance so far, finding the end zone on just 2.5% of his passes. That’s considerably below his career 4.7% TD rate and 5.6% TD rate with the Rams heading into this season.

The volume and yardage has been there, though. Stafford ranks second in the NFL with 203 pass attempts and fourth with 1,451 passing yards.

And he’s playing well, ranking sixth among 31 qualifying QBs in Pro Football Focus passing grades.

A big game is coming – and what better time than Sunday against a Cardinals squad sitting 30th in pass defense DVOA and 31st in adjusted fantasy points allowed to QBs.

We can fend off some of the Stafford ownership by stacking him in unique ways.

I don’t think many teams will play Stafford with both Kupp and Nacua because it’s so expensive. But those two accounted for 62% of Stafford’s targets last week and should continue dominating volume going forward. If Stafford has a tournament-winning performance this weekend, there’s a decent chance that both Kupp and Nacua deliver.

Or we can play one of those guys and Atwell. Tutu sunk to a 13.5% target share with Kupp back last week. But he still ran a route on 95% of Rams pass plays. That playing time means that 7-8 target games are still well within his range of outcomes. And Atwell has the big-play ability to deliver value on just one catch.

Joshua Dobbs ($5,200) + Marquise Brown ($5,300)

I like the Cardinals-Rams game. It has highest over/under on the main slate at 48 points. And we don’t have to worry about weather in a week where there are plenty of weather concerns. 

Here’s a way to get exposure to that game for cheaper and with lower ownership than the Stafford stack.

Dobbs is coming off a Week 5 dud but has already delivered games of 25.2 and 23.4 DraftKings points. That’d be enough to win a tournament at this price tag. And he’s projected for just 7% ownership.

Brown will be more popular (17%) but is one of the best values at WR on the slate. He’s averaging 15.2 DK points per game and has scored 16+ in four straight.

He hasn’t had a monster game yet but certainly has upside considering his big-play ability and volume. Brown ranks 15th among WRs in targets and 10th in air yards.

Also consider:

  • Tua Tagovailoa ($7,600) + Tyreek Hill ($9,300) + Raheem Mostert ($6,400)
  • Joe Burrow ($6,300) + Ja’Marr Chase ($8,300)
  • Trevor Lawrence ($6,500) + Calvin Ridley ($6,700) + Evan Engram ($4,500)
  • Gardner Minshew ($5,000) + Michael Pittman ($6,300) + Josh Downs ($4,100)

 

Running Backs

Bijan Robinson, Falcons ($7,200)

Robinson is a sneaky play this week.

How do I know? Because he wasn’t even on my radar until Friday night.

Robinson disappointed as chalk last week, getting out-carried by RB Tyler Allgeier and scoring just 12.8 DraftKings points.

But there’s a reason that Robinson was chalk last week: He’s very good at football and is playing a big role in Atlanta’s passing game.

None of that has changed heading into Week 6. But Robinson is $500 cheaper and projected for just 8% ownership.

The matchup is only a bit tougher than last week. Washington ranks 16th in run defense DVOA and 11th in adjusted fantasy points allowed to RBs.

There’s still 30-point upside here.

Ken Walker, Seahawks ($6,700)

Walker has proven tournament-winning upside. He already has a 30-point game this season and topped 30 twice last year.

It’d be nice if Walker did more in the passing game.

But that’s offset by the TD upside. Walker has handled 80% of Seattle’s carries inside the five-yard line and already hit paydirt five times this season.

But I particularly like Walker in this matchup. Cincinnati ranks 30th in run defense DVOA and has particularly struggled preventing big runs. The Bengals have allowed the third-highest percentage of runs against them to go for 15+ yards this year.

Big plays are Walker’s calling card.

So there’s big-play and TD upside here – all at just 4% projected ownership.

D’Onta Foreman, Bears ($4,400)

I laid out the case for Chuba Hubbard in the cash-game article. He’s the best pure value among the cheap RBs this week.

But he’s also projected for more than three times the ownership as Foreman (28% to 9%). Hubbard is nowhere near that strong a bet to outscore the Bear this week.

Like Hubbard, Foreman will be his team’s lead back this weekend. Behind him is Darryton Evans, who spent last season with Chicago but was just re-signed this week. Evans has 35 regular-season touches to his name.

Foreman, of course, had fallen behind RBs Khalil Herbert and Roschon Johnson and was a healthy scratch the past four weeks.

But he’s a capable back. Foreman sports a career 4.3 yards per carry, including 4.5 last year in Carolina, where he ranked ninth among 48 qualifiers in NFL Next Gen Stats’ Rush Yards Over Expected Per Attempt.

It’s also worth noting that Foreman ran 15 pass routes and drew three targets in the opener, so the Bears are willing to use him in the passing game. (And they’ll need to this week.)

If you’re playing a cheap RB, Foreman is a higher EV play than Hubbard.

Also consider:

  • Travis Etienne, Jaguars ($7,100)
  • Alvin Kamara, Saints ($6,800)
  • Raheem Mostert, Dolphins ($6,400)
  • D’Andre Swift, Eagles ($6,100)

 

Wide Receivers

DeVonta Smith, Eagles ($7,000)

We’ve seen squeaky wheel situations pay off with A.J. Brown and Dallas Goedert in Philadelphia over the past few weeks.

There’s been nothing public about Smith’s recent production, but you gotta think the Eagles want to get him going after last week’s one-catch outing.

Sunday presents a nice opportunity against a Jets secondary that will be without its top 2 CBs in Sauce Gardner and D.J. Reed.

Smith already has a 26.1-point game under his belt this season and topped 30 DK points twice last year.

D.J. Moore, Bears ($6,500)

Moore is sitting on some ridiculous and unsustainable efficiency metrics: a 79% catch rate, 19.7 yards per catch, and 15.6 yards per target.

If folks were chasing that stuff, Moore would be an easy fade.

But he’s projected for just 5% ownership, despite being a top-12 WR value on the slate.

The other part of Moore’s scorching start to the season has been big volume. He’s totaled 32 targets on a 27.8% target share over the past four weeks.

As long as that continues, the efficiency can sink and Moore can still pay off in tournaments.

Sunday’s matchup is good against a burnable Vikings secondary that ranks 26th in adjusted fantasy points allowed to WRs.

Drake London, Falcons ($4,800)

That 52-point outing from D.J. Moore last week? It came vs. the Commanders, who London gets this week.

Washington ranks 31st in adjusted fantasy points allowed to WRs and has already surrendered five games of 20+ DK points to WRs this season.

Since a quiet opener, London has averaged 7.5 targets on a 21.6% target share.

He’s projected for just 5% ownership.

Also consider:

  • Tyreek Hill, Dolphins ($9,300)
  • Cooper Kupp, Rams ($9,000)
  • Ja’Marr Chase, Bengals ($8,300)
  • Calvin Ridley, Jaguars ($6,700)
  • Chris Olave, Saints ($6,600)
  • Marquise Brown, Cardinals ($5,300)
  • Josh Downs, Colts ($4,100)
  • Jaxon Smith-Njigba, Seahawks ($3,600)
  • Jonathan Mingo, Panthers ($3,500)

 

Tight Ends

Logan Thomas, Commanders ($3,500)

I made the case for Thomas in this week’s cash-game article. The skinny:

  1. He’s seeing nice volume.
  2. He has an awesome matchup against a Falcons defense ranked dead last in adjusted fantasy points allowed to TEs.

At just 7% projected ownership as our top TE value, Thomas is a nice tournament play.

Jonnu Smith, Falcons ($3,400)

Smith is projected for just 5% ownership, despite being our second-best value at the position.

He’s seen 6,8, 6, and 7 targets over the last four weeks – strong volume for a $3,400 TE. 

Smith has tallied 15.5 and 11.7 DraftKings points the last two weeks, without scoring a TD.

The matchup looks tough on paper vs. the Commanders, who rank fifth in TE coverage DVOA and third in adjusted fantasy points allowed.

But Smith has played 56% of his snaps out wide, in the slot, or in the backfield this year – so the traditional TE matchup metrics don’t totally apply.

Also consider:

  • T.J. Hockenson, Vikings ($6,600)
  • Dallas Goedert, Eagles ($4,800)
  • Evan Engram, Jaguars ($4,500)
  • Kyle Pitts, Falcons ($3,500)

 

Defense/Special Teams

Vikings ($3,000)

Lions ($2,700)

Patriots ($2,600)

Browns ($2,200)

  

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