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Week 8 DraftKings Tournament Picks

By Jared Smola 9:39pm EDT 10/28/23

Stacks

Jalen Hurts ($8,200) + A.J. Brown ($8,000)

Hurts vs. Washington’s 29th-ranked QB defense.

Patrick Mahomes vs. Denver’s 30th-ranked QB defense

Lamar Jackson vs. Arizona’s 31st-ranked QB defense.

What are the chances that at least one of these elite QBs has the 35+ DraftKings point outing you need to win a tournament this week?

Relatively high, which is why I think most tournament teams should be built around an elite QB this week.

Hurts is my favorite of the trio. In small part because he has the lowest projected ownership (7%). But mostly because Eagles-Commanders has a better chance to shoot out than Chiefs-Broncos or Ravens-Cardinals.

We’ve seen the Washington offense be productive in spurts this season – including in a 31-point outing vs. the Eagles back in Week 4.

Perhaps more importantly, Washington figures to go extremely pass heavy in this one. The Commanders rank third in pass rate over expected on the season, while the Eagles rank third in pass rate over expected against.

More passing can help fuel a shootout. It’s generally more efficient than running. And it tends to boost play volume (incompletions stop the clock).

It’d be tough to play a Hurts lineup without Brown, who’s averaged 28.8 DK points over his last five games. That includes a 41.5-pointer against the Commanders, who rank dead last in adjusted fantasy points allowed to WRs.

If you want to get frisky in large-field tournaments, considern adding WR DeVonta Smith ($6,700) to the stack. He’s been underwhelming for most of the season but already had a 26.1-point outing under his belt. It wouldn’t be surprising to see him have another big one in this matchup.

Also consider:

  • Patrick Mahomes ($8,400) + Travis Kelce ($8,400) + Rashee Rice ($5,000)
  • Lamar Jackson ($8,100) + Zay Flowers ($5,600) + Mark Andrews ($6,400)
  • Joe Burrow ($6,000) + Ja’Marr Chase ($8,100)
  • Derek Carr ($5,500) + Alvin Kamara ($7,300) + Chris Olave ($6,400)

 

Running Backs

Travis Etienne, Jaguars ($7,200)

A natural pivot from RB Alvin Kamara, who’s projected for twice the ownership as Etienne (20% vs. 10%).

We actually have Etienne projected for more DraftKings points this week, so you’re not even giving up raw value.

Etienne has tallied 39.4, 23.3, and 22.7 DraftKings points in his last three games.

He’s found the end zone twice in all three, which we obviously can’t bank on continuing going forward.

But he’s also averaged 19.3 carries and 4.3 targets over those three games. 

He’s getting awesome volume and is an explosive player. A good recipe for a tournament RB.

Etienne draws a nice matchup this week against the Steelers, who rank 19th in run defense DVOA and 18th in adjusted fantasy points allowed to RBs.

Pittsburgh is surrendering 4.7 yards per carry to RBs on the season and just gave up 127 rushing yards to Rams RBs Darrell Henderson and Royce Freeman last week.

Javonte Williams, Broncos ($5,200)

A Williams breakout is coming.

He’s now over a year removed from his multi-ligament knee injury; his role is growing; and his play is improving.

Week 7 brought season highs for Williams in:

  • Snap rate (53%)
  • Route rate (39%)
  • Rush attempt share (60%)

He also registered season highs in both Pro Football Focus rushing grade and yards after contact per attempt in each of the last 2 weeks. Only two RBs own a higher PFF rushing grade than Williams over that span.

This week admittedly isn’t the best spot for a breakout, with the Broncos seven-point underdogs vs. the Chiefs.

The matchup isn’t impossible, though. While Kansas City ranks second in adjusted fantasy points allowed to RBs, that’s largely because they’ve faced the fourth fewest RB rushing attempts.

The Chiefs have allowed 4.7 yards per carry to opposing RBs and rank 21st in run defense DVOA. 

They’ll also be without LB Nick Bolton on Sunday. He owns the team’s highest Pro Football Focus run defense grade.

Also consider:

  • Alvin Kamara, Saints ($7,300)
  • D’Andre Swift, Eagles ($6,300)
  • Jonathan Taylor, Colts ($6,200)
  • Isiah Pacheco, Chiefs ($6,100)
  • Breece Hall, Jets ($5,900)
  • Devin Singletary, Texans ($4,400)

 

Wide Receivers

Garrett Wilson, Jets ($6,300)

Jets RB Breece Hall will be one of the chalkiest plays on the slate. He deserves to be.

But what if the Jets’ TDs happen to go to Wilson instead of Hall? Then Wilson teams are scoring points AND keeping all the Hall teams from scoring.

That’s leverage.

Wilson is projected for just 5% ownership despite being in an ideal matchup against a blitz-heavy Giants defense. QB Zach Wilson has targeted Wilson on an absurd 43% of his passes when blitzed this season. 

Nico Collins, Texans ($5,500)

Collins is in the midst of a breakout season. He ranks fourth among 85 qualifying WRs in yards per route run and 13th in PPR points per game.

His week-to-week production has been volatile – but that’s exactly what we want in a tournament WR.

Collins already has two tournament-winning performances: 30.6 DK points in Week 2 and 38.8 points in Week 4.

He’s underpriced for a sneaky strong matchup vs. the Panthers.

Carolina ranks fourth in adjusted fantasy points allowed to WRs. But that’s mostly because they’re so bad against the run. The Panthers have faced the second fewest pass attempts per game.

But they’ve allowed a 67% catch rate and 13.7 yards per catch to opposing WRs – both worse than league average.

Outside CBs Donte Jackson and C.J. Henderson rank 79th and 103rd in Pro Football Focus coverage grade among 107 qualifiers.

Advantage Collins.

Josh Downs, Colts ($4,800)

I laid out the case for Downs in this week’s cash-games article.

At just 8% projected ownership, he’s an excellent tournament play.

I like mini-stacking Downs with Saints WR Chris Olave ($6,400), who’s a major positive regression candidate and gets a Colts defense that’s already allowed four WRs to score 25+ DraftKings points.

Also consider:

  • Ja’Marr Chase, Bengals ($8,100)
  • A.J. Brown, Eagles ($8,000)
  • DeVonta Smith, Eagles ($6,700)
  • Chris Olave, Saints ($6,400)
  • Christian Kirk, Jaguars ($5,900)
  • George Pickens, Steelers ($5,600)
  • Terry McLaurin, Commanders ($5,300)
  • Drake London, Falcons ($5,100)
  • Tank Dell, Texans ($4,900)
  • Michael Gallup, Cowboys ($3,400)

 

Tight Ends

Jake Ferguson, Cowboys ($3,600)

Ferguson has been quiet lately. He’s coming off a Week 7 bye and totaled just four catches across his last two games.

But Ferguson registered season-high route rates in both of those games – 73% in Week 5 and then 84% in Week 6. That bodes well for his volume going foward.

Ferguson has been a big part of Dallas’ red-zone offense all season, ranking second among TEs with 11 red-zone targets. There’s exciting TD upside here with Dallas sporting a strong 26.25-point implied total.

The Rams rank 30th in TE coverage DVOA and 31st in adjusted fantasy points allowed to TEs.

Also consider:

  • George Kittle, 49ers ($5,400)
  • Dallas Goedert, Eagles ($4,600)

 

Defense/Special Teams

Browns ($3,000)

Steelers ($2,900)

Vikings ($2,500)

Bengals ($2,200)

 

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