Jaguars QB Trevor Lawrence diced the Ravens for 9.3 yards per pass attempt in Thursday night's win. He found TE Nate Boerkircher deep downfield for 52 yards after extending a play on a rollout in the first quarter and later hit WR Parker Washington up the seam for a 50-yard catch-and-run TD. That put Jacksonville up 17 to 3 just before halftime, and the score never got closer. Lawrence threw just 11 passes in the second half of the easy win, finishing with an underwhelming 242-1-0 passing line.
2026 Fantasy Football Impact: Volume Remains a Problem
This has been the story with Lawrence for most of the season: strong efficiency on weak volume. He entered this week third among QBs in fantasy points per dropback but just 24th in dropbacks.
It's been partly by design. The Jaguars entered Week 9 ranked 31st in pace and 27th in pass rate over expected (-2.6%).
But game script has been the bigger problem. Jacksonville has led for well over 50% of its offensive snaps, a top-5 mark. That's left Lawrence needing to do little in the second half of many games.
Check out his production in the first half vs. second half of games:
| First Half | Second Half | |
| Pass Attempts | 136 | 88 |
| Pass Yards | 1,196 | 736 |
| Pass TDs | 12 | 6 |
| Fantasy Points | 96.7 | 55.6 |
This would typically be something we expect to regress. But that might not be the case for Lawrence, especially in the short term. His next 3 opponents: Titans, Giants, Titans. The Jaguars will be significant favorites in all three games, and Lawrence will be at risk of low volume.
He should get some more competitive games down the stretch:
- Week 13: at Bears
- Week 14: vs. Steelers
- Week 15: at Texans
- Week 16: at Cowboys
- Week 17: vs. Commanders
Lawrence's efficiency in this strong Jacksonville offense gives him big fantasy upside when volume allows it. He just needs the volume.
Consider him a low-end QB1 the next few weeks. He'll have a higher ceiling down the stretch.
