Week 8 Matchups That Matter: Hope You Have Some Cowboys!

Welcome to Week 8’s Matchups That Matter.

This article gives you a peek at the process behind our weekly projections and rankings. Below are the key metrics we use to set those numbers, so you can make sharper start/sit calls every week.

When you’re ready to set your lineup, hit the Week 8 Rankings and your Team Dashboard page for customized start/sit advice.

Good luck in Week 8!

Jump to:

• Game Totals
• Projected Points
• Projected Plays
• Pace Matchups
• Weather Concerns
• Quarterback Matchups
• Running Back Matchups
• Wide Receiver Matchups
• Tight End Matchups
• Defense/Special Teams Matchups
• Kicker Matchups

Highest Game Totals

1. Ravens at Bills (54.5)
2. Cardinals at Cowboys (54.5)
3. Panthers at Packers (47.5)
t-4. Colts at Jaguars (46.5)
t-4. Titans at Bengals (46.5)
t-4. Bears at Seahawks (46.5)

Lowest Game Totals

t-12. Chiefs at Broncos (40.5)
t-12. Eagles at Commanders (40.5)
14. Browns at Steelers (39.0)

Projected Points

We can use Vegas lines to calculate how many points each team is expected to score this week.

Highest Projected Points

1. Cowboys (30.75)
2. Bengals (29.5)
2. Bills (29.0)
4. Jaguars (28.25)
5. Rams (26.0)

Lowest Projected Points

t-22. Chargers (19.5)
t-22. Broncos (19.5)
t-24. Colts (18.25)
t-24. Dolphins (18.25)
26. Browns (17.5)
t-27. Titans (17.0)
t-27. Eagles (17.0)

Projected Plays

The chart below shows how many plays we're projecting each team to run vs. the league average for the week. More plays = more chances for fantasy points.

Most Projected Plays

1. Cardinals (63.6)
2. Rams (63.4)
3. Panthers (63.3)
t-4. Bills (63.1)
t-4. Bengals (63.1)

Fewest Projected Plays

23. Chargers (60.9)
24. Eagles (60.8)
25. Browns (60.7)
26. Colts (60.5)
27. Dolphins (59.1)
28. Titans (59.0)

Pace Matchups

The chart below displays how each game stacks up in terms of pace vs. the league average for the week. Pace is calculated by averaging the seconds per snap from both teams in each game. Faster-paced games often produce more plays, which means more fantasy points.

Fastest-Paced Games (Average of seconds per snap)

1. Panthers at Packers (27.2 seconds)
2. Cardinals at Cowboys (27.4 seconds)
3. Titans at Bengals (28.3 seconds)
4. Chargers at Rams (28.5 seconds)
5. Eagles at Commanders (28.6 seconds)

Slowest-Paced Games (Average of seconds per snap)

10. Vikings at Lions (29.9 seconds)
11. Patriots at Dolphins (30.0 seconds)
12. Ravens at Bills (30.0 seconds)
13. Colts at Jaguars (30.5 seconds)
14. Falcons at Buccaneers (30.6 seconds)

Weather Concerns

Falcons at Buccaneers

A chance for pop-up showers, particularly in the second half of this game. Winds are forecast around 10 mph with gusts up to 20. That could impact some deep passes and kicks, but we're not adjusting projections for this one.

Colts at Jaguars

A slight chance of rain during this game, but the bigger impact will come from the wind. The forecast calls for sustained winds around 15 mph with gusts up around 25. That's right on the edge of truly impactful wind. We're shifting both teams a bit more toward the run in our projections.

Patriots at Dolphins

Similar weather to Tampa Bay. A chance for showers throughout the game, with winds around 10 mph and gusts up around 20. We were already expecting both teams to lean run, and the weather should only push them further in that direction.

Quarterback

Pass Defense Power Rankings

Here's a look at how each team has fared in pass defense DVOA, Pro Football Focus coverage grade, PFF pass rush grade, and EPA allowed per pass through 7 weeks. Teams are ranked by "Pass Defense Power," which averages those 4 metrics.

Week 8 Passing Matchups

This chart plots each team's Pass Offense Power vs. their opponent's Pass Defense Power. Teams in the bottom right quadrant are in smash spots.

Adjusted-Fantasy-Points Matchup Upgrades & Downgrades

The best and worst Week 8 matchups according to our 2026 adjusted fantasy points allowed.

5 Best QB Matchups

1. Tanner McKee at Commanders (+49.6%)
2. Kyler Murray at Lions (+44.5%)
3. Dak Prescott vs. Cardinals (+40.7%)
4. Lamar Jackson at Bills (+26.3%)
5. Sam Darnold vs. Bears (+22.9%)

5 Worst QB Matchups

24. Matthew Stafford vs. Chargers (-22.9%)
25. Deshaun Watson at Steelers (-23.5%)
26. Michael Penix at Buccaneers (-26.1%)
27. Caleb Williams at Seahawks (-42.5%)
28. Jared Goff vs. Vikings (-52.4%)

Running Back

Run Defense Power Rankings

Here's a look at how each team has fared in run defense DVOA, Pro Football Focus run defense grade, and EPA allowed per rush through 7 weeks. Teams are ranked by "Run Defense Power," which averages those 3 metrics.

Week 8 Rushing Matchups

This chart plots each team's Run Offense Power vs. their opponent's Run Defense Power. Teams in the bottom right quadrant are in smash spots.

Adjusted-Fantasy-Points Matchup Upgrades & Downgrades

The best and worst Week 8 matchups according to our 2026 adjusted fantasy points allowed.

5 Best RB Matchups

1. Cardinals at Cowboys (+33.8%)
2. Patriots at Dolphins (+28.2%)
3. Ravens at Bills (+21.8%)
4. Packers vs. Panthers (+17.5%)
5. Buccaneers vs. Falcons (+13.9%)

5 Worst RB Matchups

24. Cowboys vs. Cardinals (-13.9%)
25. Titans at Bengals (-14.8%)
26. Bills vs. Ravens (-15.2%)
27. Falcons at Buccaneers (-16.3%)
28. Jahmyr Gibbs vs. Vikings (-28.1%)

Wide Receiver

Adjusted-Fantasy-Points Matchup Upgrades & Downgrades

The best and worst Week 8 matchups according to our 2026 adjusted fantasy points allowed. 

5 Best WR Matchups

1. Ravens at Bills (+39.5%)
2. Vikings at Lions (+22.7%)
3. Colts at Jaguars (+21.0%)
4. Bengals vs. Titans (+19.5%)
5. Commanders vs. Eagles (+12.3%)

5 Worst WR Matchups

24. Broncos vs. Chiefs (-15.4%)
25. Falcons at Buccaneers (-19.7%)
26. Patriots at Dolphins (-21.3%)
27. Lions vs. Vikings (-22.2%)
28. Bears at Seahawks (-26.6%)

WR/CB Matchup Upgrades

Seahawks WR Jaxon Smith-Njigba vs. Bears CBs Jaylon Johnson and Malik Muhammad

Ravens WR Zay Flowers vs. Bills CB Dee Alford

Packers WRs Christian Watson and Matthew Golden vs. Panthers CBs Will Lee and Tre'Von Moehrig

Panthers WRs Tetairoa McMillan and Jalen Coker vs. Packers CBs Keisean Nixon and Brandon Cisse

Jaguars WR Parker Washington vs. Colts CB Kapena Gushiken

Steelers WR Germie Bernard vs. Browns CB Myles Harden

Commanders WR Stefon Diggs vs. Eagles CB Cooper DeJean

Browns WR KC Concepcion vs. Steelers CB Jalen Ramsey

Eagles WR Makai Lemon vs. Commanders CB Amik Robertson

Dolphins WR Malik Washington vs. Patriots CB Marcus Jones

Cardinals WR Kendrick Bourne vs. Cowboys CB Caleb Downs

WR/CB Matchup Downgrades

Lions WRs Amon-Ra St. Brown and Jameson Williams vs. Vikings CBs Byron Murphy, Isaiah Rodgers, and James Pierre

Bears WRs Luther Burden and Rome Odunze vs. Seahawks CBs Devon Witherspoon, Josh Jobe, and Nehemiah Pritchett

Chiefs WRs Rashee Rice and Xavier Worthy vs. Broncos CBs Pat Surtain, Riley Moss, and Ja'Quan McMillian

Steelers WR D.K. Metcalf vs. Browns CBs Denzel Ward and Tyson Campbell

Tight End

Adjusted-Fantasy-Points Matchup Upgrades & Downgrades

The best and worst Week 8 matchups according to our 2026 adjusted fantasy points allowed.

5 Best TE Matchups

1. Vikings at Lions (+98.4%)
2. Eagles at Commanders (+94.1%)
3. Broncos vs. Chiefs (+70.5%)
4. Jets vs. Raiders (+51.4%)
5. Titans at Bengals (+33.5%)

5 Worst TE Matchups

24. Panthers at Packers (-31.2%)
25. Bears at Seahawks (-33.2%)
26. Rams vs. Chargers (-35.8%)
27. Chargers at Rams (-41.4%)
28. Lions vs. Vikings (-43.8%)

Defense/Special Teams

Adjusted-Fantasy-Points Matchup Upgrades & Downgrades

The best and worst Week 8 matchups according to our 2026 adjusted fantasy points allowed.

5 Best DST Matchups

1. Rams vs. Chargers (+112.0%)
2. Bengals vs. Titans (+69.5%)
3. Bears at Seahawks (+51.1%)
4. Buccaneers vs. Falcons (+43.5%)
5. Steelers vs. Browns (+27.9%)

5 Worst DST Matchups

24. Chiefs at Broncos (-36.5%)
25. Ravens at Bills (-47.3%)
26. Cardinals at Cowboys (-56.4%)
27. Colts at Jaguars (-57.2%)
28. Vikings at Lions (-62.3%)

Kicker

Adjusted-Fantasy-Points Matchup Upgrades & Downgrades

The best and worst Week 8 matchups according to our 2026 adjusted fantasy points allowed.

5 Best K Matchups

1. Andre Szmyt at Steelers (+35.8%)
2. Jake Elliott at Commanders (+31.9%)
3. Evan McPherson vs. Titans (+31.1%)
4. Cam Little vs. Colts (+30.4%)
5. Cameron Dicker at Rams (+28.9%)

5 Worst K Matchups

24. Spencer Shrader at Jaguars (-22.2%)
25. Jake Bates vs. Vikings (-25.8%)
26. Jason Myers vs. Bears (-39.9%)
27. Will Reichard at Lions (-40.1%)
28. Ryan Fitzgerald at Packers (-52.7%)