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Trevor Lawrence - Fantasy Points Outlook

Basic StatsTrevor Lawrence's Basic Stats

Trevor Lawrence
ADP: 5.10
Bye: 9
Experience: 2 Yr(s)
Age: 23.9
Height: 6'6"
Weight: 220
40 Time: 4.66

Trevor Lawrence's Weekly Outlook

Week 4 Projections
Yds TDs INT Rush Yds Fantasy Pts
263.9 1.7 0.7 18.1 18.7
Weekly Writeup
This Jaguars' passing offense has been spotty to open the season so far. As a result, Lawrence has yet to clear 300+ passing yards or throw multiple TDs in a contest while averaging 13.8 fantasy points per game. Perhaps traveling over to London will be just what this team needs. We're optimistic about Lawrence in Week 4, though the Falcons' defense ranks as the 13th-toughest matchup in adjusted fantasy points allowed to QBs this season. Consider him a low-end QB1.

Rest Of Way Outlook

Yds TDs INT Rush Yds Fantasy Pts
268.6 2.1 0.9 20.7 20.5

Trevor Lawrence's 2023 Projections & Outlook

Scoring

#7 Quarterback

327.7 Projected Points

ADP Comp/Att P Yds P TD INT Att R Yds Fum
5.10 395.9/585 4297.5 32.8 15.1 61 330.6 4.5

3D Projections DS 3D Projections

Basic StatsTrevor Lawrence's Preseason Player Analysis

View QB Fantasy Rankings »
Bottom Line

Lawrence showed serious improvement in Year 2 after Urban Meyer helped waste his rookie year. An ascending Jaguars offense should be even better with WR Calvin Ridley entering the mix.

Lawrence likely doesn’t have the rushing ceiling to challenge for the top of the QB rankings. But we’re betting on mid-QB1 production. Keep him in draft consideration across formats.

What We Learned Last Year
  • Trevor Lawrence doesn’t suck.
    • Most of us were pretty sure he didn’t. But a terrible rookie year made it much easier to wonder.
    • Last season mercifully found Doug Pederson replacing Urban Meyer and featured a big Lawrence turnaround.
  • Lawrence went from 33rd among QBs in fantasy points per game in 2021 to 11th last season.
  • He ranked:
    • 12th in passing yards per game
    • 18th in yards per pass attempt
    • 18th in passing TD rate
    • 13th in completion rate
    • 10th among QBs in rushing yards
    • T-5th in rushing TDs
    • 10th in carries
  • Lawrence dramatically improved his Pro Football Focus passing grade, ranking 14th among 48 QBs with 100+ dropbacks. He finished 36th in 2021.
  • Lawrence also appeared to improve over the second half.
    • Through Week 8, he tied for 30th in PFF passing grade.
    • From Week 9 through the playoffs, he ranked third.
    • Nothing big changed at that point in the season, other than Jacksonville trading RB James Robinson. So it’s fair to wonder how much he got boosted by positive matchups and/or how much the first-half performance got weighed down by especially bad outings at Philly in Week 4 and vs. Denver in Week 8.
  • In addition to the coaching change, the Jaguars signed WR Christian Kirk, WR Zay Jones, and TE Evan Engram in free agency last year.
  • Jacksonville also traded for Calvin Ridley during the season, though a league suspension kept him from joining the team.
What to Expect in 2023
  • Swapping out Marvin Jones Jr. (gone to Detroit) for Ridley should make the receiving corps even better.
    • Ridley hasn’t played a game since October 24, 2021. But his last full season found the wideout ranked 13th in PFF receiving grade.
    • Ridley’s career 12.9-yard average depth of target is 3.3 longer than the 2022 aDOTs for both Christian Kirk and Zay Jones. It also beats each player’s career mark.
    • That means Ridley likely enhances the downfield ability of this receiving corps.
  • That would be good for Lawrence, whose aDOT decreased from his rookie season to last year. College found him pushing the ball a little deeper: 9.5-yard aDOT vs. 8.0 so far in the pros.
  • Lawrence says he’s excited about Ridley: “He’s been awesome. He’s hungry. He’s excited to be here. He’s got the right attitude, I think that’s the biggest thing that I’ve noticed. And then on the field, he’s a freak — just the way he runs routes, how explosive he is, great hands.”
  • Lawrence’s rushing performance will be interesting to watch. Last year’s Jaguars decreased his designed runs slightly (by nine total). He also scored all five of his rushing TDs from inside the 5-yard line, finding the end zone on five of six opportunities in that range. Lawrence rushed four times in the same range in 2021, with just one TD.
    • He finished seventh in total fantasy points; 10th among QBs in percentage of fantasy points that came from rushing TDs.
    • Among those ahead of him, only Jalen Hurts and Josh Allen relied on rushing TDs for more of their fantasy points.
  • Lawrence entered the NFL with plenty of speed and college rushing production. He especially liked to punch it in himself near the goal line at Clemson (17 rushing scores over his final two years).
    • There will always be luck involved in how many TDs a player scores. But expect rushing production to remain a meaningful component in Lawrence’s fantasy output.

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Trevor Lawrence, QB JAC

5:29pm EDT 9/24/23

Trevor Lawrence, Jaguars' offense struggle again

Jaguars QB Trevor Lawrence completed 27 passes on 40 attempts for 279 yards with 1 TD and INT apiece in Week 3’s loss vs. the Texans. Something just isn’t clicking with this Jacksonville offense so far this season. Lawrence is now averaging 13.78 fantasy points per game through three weeks. We’d figured the Texans wouldn’t be such a tough obstacle for the Jaguars, so these results are pretty jarring. We’ll see if they can put anything together in Week 4 vs. the Falcons, though it might be time for legitimate concern.

View all Trevor Lawrence Shark Bites »

The Jags mustered only 9 points in Sunday's loss to Kansas City. That meant a big-time dud from QB Trevor Lawrence, who tallied just 216 passing yards on a 53.6% completion rate. He managed only 5.3 yards per attempt. “We’re better than that. We’re a better team than that … it’s kind of embarrassing,” Lawrence said afterward. Calvin Ridley (2 catches) and Zay Jones (0 catches) played through minor knee injuries in this one, but we’re not expecting any missed time. Expect a Lawrence bounce back in Week 3 vs. Houston.

View all Trevor Lawrence Shark Bites »

Jaguars HC Doug Pederson is turning over play-calling duties to OC Press Taylor, according to NFL Network's Ian Rapoport. "I totally trust Press," Pederson told NFL.com. "We think alike. We've been together for a long time, and he's around Trevor [Lawrence] all the time and knows what Trevor likes." We'd prefer Pederson continue calling plays considering Jacksonville's success last year. But we're ultimately not expecting a significant fantasy impact here. Taylor has worked under Pederson for six NFL seasons.

View all Trevor Lawrence Shark Bites »

Dynasty Overview View QB Dynasty Rankings »

Trevor Lawrence, QB JAC
Dynasty MVP 308.4
Position Rank #7 QB
3yr Projection
5yr Projection
10yr Projection
922
1,562
3,054
Dynasty Write-up
Lawrence really emerged last season, showing the arm talent that made him the top pick of the 2021 draft. Led by HC Doug Pederson and WRs Christian Kirk and Calvin Ridley, Lawrence’s weapons are strong enough to support further growth.
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