Trevor Lawrence Fantasy Overview

Production & Fantasy Finishes

Lawrence's 2025 split cleanly before and after the bye. He finished QB4 overall with 350.1 fantasy points across 17 games and averaged 20.6 points per game (QB6), but those totals hide just how rough the start was and how dominant the finish became.

Lawrence ranked just QB18 in points per game across seven contests before the bye despite sitting QB6 in expected points per game, so the opportunity was there but the production wasn't. He posted only two top-12 QB weeks in that span, with another three outside the top 20.

After the bye, a different player showed up.

Over his final 10 games, Lawrence ranked QB1 in both actual and expected fantasy points per game. That included finishing as a top-7 QB in each of his last four games.

Lawrence delivered nine top-12 finishes among those 10 outings, and his numbers improved sharply across categories:

Usage & Role

The midseason trade for Jakobi Meyers may have been a catalyst. He joined the team in Week 10, two weeks after the bye, and gave Lawrence the reliable underneath option the offense had been missing.

Meyers played just 43.5% of the snaps in his Jaguars debut, but that playing time leaped from Week 11 on, and Meyers pulled a team-high 23.5% target share.

Lawrence called Meyers a “reliable target for me over the middle of the field,” and it showed.

Efficiency & Regression

Jacksonville averaged 63.6 plays per game under Coen, the sixth-most in the league. Lawrence ranked sixth in pass attempts, fourth in red zone pass attempts, and fifth in throws into the end zone. The Jags’ 1,093 total plays were their second-most since Lawrence arrived in 2021. (Only 2024 found them running more, a season in which Lawrence missed seven games.)

The end-zone throws, in particular, helped fuel the QB’s fantasy scoring. Lawrence ranked third in expected passing TDs at 31.4 and finished with 28 actual scores (fifth).

Offensive Context

Lawrence’s rushing added a scoring boost for him in 2025. The biggest change from previous seasons was his career high 9 rushing TDs. That was fueled by a large increase in red-zone carries, including a career high in carries inside the 5.

We can credit at least some of that to the effective offense of Coen and OC Grant Udinski, but we’ll see whether that level of opportunity near the end zone continues for Lawrence.

The QB also scrambled more frequently than any previous year (once every 15.4 dropbacks). It ended up with similar frequency and yardage to 2023, his most recent healthy season:

It’s fair to expect 2026 to look similar in that area, especially with an unproven backfield, but the variance through his first five seasons is noteworthy.

Lawrence also ranked fourth among QBs in TDs on designed runs, but tied for eighth in designed rush attempts and ranked 12th in yardage from designed runs, per PFF. That might point to the new offense presenting more short-yardage opportunities. But, it might also signal some luck in Lawrence’s 2025 TD chances.

Only 10 players at any position ran for more TDs from inside the 5 than Lawrence, with Josh Allen the only QB in that range.

Historical Production & Trends

The one consistent concern is accuracy. Lawrence ranked 32nd in completion percentage (60.8%) and 32nd in completion percentage over expected (-2.1%) among 42 QBs with 150+ attempts.

It didn’t help that the Jaguars pass catchers dropped a league-high 39 passes, but Lawrence also ranked just 29th among 45 qualifying QBs in adjusted completion rate, a PFF stat that factors in drops.

Coen’s system showed a pass lean similar to his 2024 Bucs offense. Jacksonville had a 4.3% pass rate over expected (fourth) in 2025. Coen also threw more than expected for Tampa Bay in 2024 at 2.7% (eighth). Baker Mayfield ranked as QB3 in PPR points per game under Coen in 2024, and Lawrence QB6 this past season.

Coen’s offenses have leaned into the pass even as far back as his two years coordinating at Kentucky with Will Levis and Devin Leary at QB.

Supporting Cast

The receiving corps that powered the second-half surge remains intact. Brian Thomas Jr., Jakobi Meyers, and Parker Washington give Lawrence the same weapons that helped him become the QB1 down the stretch. The team also returns TE Brenton Strange.

Thomas disappointed in 2025, but his season split into two distinct halves similar to Lawrence. In his first eight games, Thomas caught just 50% of his targets (66th) at 13.5 yards per catch (25th) and 6.8 yards per target (55th).

Over his final six games, those numbers improved to a 58.1% catch rate (29th), 15.9 YPC (ninth), and 9.3 yards per target (13th). But, his 14.9% target share over that period still ranked third behind Meyers and Washington. He remains a potential deep threat who had a WR1 season in 2024. The talent and ceiling remain high.

Meyers helped fuel Lawrence’s breakout after being traded to the Jaguars. He has three straight seasons finishing as a low-end WR2.

Washington saw a late season break out himself. Over his final seven games including the playoffs, Washington averaged 5.0 catches, 86.3 yards, and 0.57 touchdowns per game. Extrapolated over a full season, that pace would have made him the PPR WR7.

Strange posted a 16.0% target share across his 11 full games, which ranked him just behind Jacksonville's top four WRs. His per-route efficiency was sturdy, ranking 11th among 49 TEs with 30+ targets in yards per route run at 1.70.

Continuity in both scheme and personnel should benefit Lawrence’s fantasy performance in 2026.

Coaching & Offensive Scheme

The backfield situation did change though. Travis Etienne is gone, leaving Bhayshul Tuten and Chris Rodriguez Jr. as the top options. Lawrence has not played on a team without Etienne since he was in high school in 2017 (though Etienne missed his entire rookie season in 2021 due to injury.

The new RB group is pretty unproven. Tuten handled just a 22.2% carry share (70th among RBs) as a rookie behind Etienne after Jacksonville traded Tank Bigsby. Rodriguez arrives familiar with Coen’s offense, having enjoyed his best college season the lone year he worked with Coen as his Kentucky OC (2021).

If the backs falter, Jacksonville could lean more heavily into the passing game and increase Lawrence’s volume. That would mean more passing situations and possibly more scrambles or designed runs near the goal line.

Coen's offense already passed more than expected in his first Jacksonville season and his lone campaign as Tampa Bay OC.

Paths To Ceiling

Lawrence already showed us his ceiling climbs into the top 5 at the position. If he sustains the post-bye efficiency, maintains his rushing contribution, and operates in the same high-volume passing environment, Lawrence could dramatically outperform his low-QB1 level ADP.

The risk is just as clear. The pre-bye stretch revealed that Lawrence can go cold in a way that leaves him well short of his expected points. If his efficiency flags -- and/or the offense stumbles on whole -- Lawrence could just spend 2026 not making much of a difference for your fantasy team.