Bottom Line

Lawrence showed serious improvement in Year 2 after Urban Meyer helped waste his rookie year. An ascending Jaguars offense should be even better with WR Calvin Ridley entering the mix.

Lawrence likely doesn’t have the rushing ceiling to challenge for the top of the QB rankings. But we’re betting on mid-QB1 production. Keep him in draft consideration across formats.

What We Learned Last Year

• Trevor Lawrence doesn’t suck.
  • Most of us were pretty sure he didn’t. But a terrible rookie year made it much easier to wonder.
  • Last season mercifully found Doug Pederson replacing Urban Meyer and featured a big Lawrence turnaround.
• Lawrence went from 33rd among QBs in fantasy points per game in 2021 to 11th last season.
• He ranked:
  • 12th in passing yards per game
  • 18th in yards per pass attempt
  • 18th in passing TD rate
  • 13th in completion rate
  • 10th among QBs in rushing yards
  • T-5th in rushing TDs
  • 10th in carries
• Lawrence dramatically improved his Pro Football Focus passing grade, ranking 14th among 48 QBs with 100+ dropbacks. He finished 36th in 2021.
• Lawrence also appeared to improve over the second half.
  • Through Week 8, he tied for 30th in PFF passing grade.
  • From Week 9 through the playoffs, he ranked third.
  • Nothing big changed at that point in the season, other than Jacksonville trading RB James Robinson. So it’s fair to wonder how much he got boosted by positive matchups and/or how much the first-half performance got weighed down by especially bad outings at Philly in Week 4 and vs. Denver in Week 8.
• In addition to the coaching change, the Jaguars signed WR Christian Kirk, WR Zay Jones, and TE Evan Engram in free agency last year.
• Jacksonville also traded for Calvin Ridley during the season, though a league suspension kept him from joining the team.

What to Expect in 2023

• Swapping out Marvin Jones Jr. (gone to Detroit) for Ridley should make the receiving corps even better.
  • Ridley hasn’t played a game since October 24, 2021. But his last full season found the wideout ranked 13th in PFF receiving grade.
  • Ridley’s career 12.9-yard average depth of target is 3.3 longer than the 2022 aDOTs for both Christian Kirk and Zay Jones. It also beats each player’s career mark.
  • That means Ridley likely enhances the downfield ability of this receiving corps.
• That would be good for Lawrence, whose aDOT decreased from his rookie season to last year. College found him pushing the ball a little deeper: 9.5-yard aDOT vs. 8.0 so far in the pros.
• Lawrence says he’s excited about Ridley: “He’s been awesome. He’s hungry. He’s excited to be here. He’s got the right attitude, I think that’s the biggest thing that I’ve noticed. And then on the field, he’s a freak — just the way he runs routes, how explosive he is, great hands.”
• Lawrence’s rushing performance will be interesting to watch. Last year’s Jaguars decreased his designed runs slightly (by nine total). He also scored all five of his rushing TDs from inside the 5-yard line, finding the end zone on five of six opportunities in that range. Lawrence rushed four times in the same range in 2021, with just one TD.
  • He finished seventh in total fantasy points; 10th among QBs in percentage of fantasy points that came from rushing TDs.
  • Among those ahead of him, only Jalen Hurts and Josh Allen relied on rushing TDs for more of their fantasy points.
• Lawrence entered the NFL with plenty of speed and college rushing production. He especially liked to punch it in himself near the goal line at Clemson (17 rushing scores over his final two years).
  • There will always be luck involved in how many TDs a player scores. But expect rushing production to remain a meaningful component in Lawrence’s fantasy output.