The Schedule Shifts That Could Win (or Lose) Your Fantasy League

Eight weeks into the fantasy season, schedules have helped shape the production we’ve seen. Some players have piled up points against soft defenses. Others have been held back by brutal matchups.

But with nine weeks left, there’s still time to buy before the schedule softens … or sell before it turns nasty.

I compared every team’s opponent-adjusted strength of schedule through Week 8 with its remaining slate at QB, RB, WR, and TE to find the biggest shifts.

Here are the key players positioned to surge against easier competition -- and those who could stumble on a tougher road.

Quarterbacks

Second-Half Schedule Risers

Caleb Williams, Chicago Bears

Caleb Williams is positioned to win fantasy leagues. He’s been excellent since returning from his hamstring injury, completing 74% of his passes at 8.3 yards per attempt. And he’s done it against three top-12 QB defenses. Williams also drew the Vikings’ league-best unit in Week 2.

The schedule is about to get much easier. Williams has the 11th-easiest remaining QB schedule. And that’s being dragged down by this week’s Buccaneers matchup. 

Following a Week 10 bye, the Bears have the fifth-easiest QB schedule. That includes two games against Detroit’s 32nd-ranked QB defense, plus a likely shootout against the Bills (Week 15) and potential high-scoring affairs vs. the Jaguars (Week 13) and Packers (Week 16).

Williams sits QB7 in fantasy points per game on the season but just 13th over the last three weeks, which could create a buying opportunity ahead of a likely big finish to the fantasy season.

Trevor Lawrence, Jacksonville Jaguars

Trevor Lawrence faced a neutral schedule (16th-easiest) over the first half of the season. He gets the league’s easiest QB schedule over the second half.

Lawrence faces just one more top-14 QB defense, the Steelers in Week 14. Seven of his next nine opponents rank bottom-12 against QBs, and six rank bottom-9.

Lawrence has drawn just one bottom-9 QB defense so far. He disappointed in that one, finishing QB24 on 23 pass attempts vs. the Bengals.

Volume has been Lawrence’s only issue this season. He ranks just 23rd in pass attempts. The volume could stay low, particularly in upcoming games against the Lamar Jackson-less Ravens, Titans (twice), and Giants. 

But Lawrence should find more competitive games against the Bears (Week 13), Texans (Week 15), and Cowboys (Week 16). And expect the efficiency to remain strong. Lawrence ranks second in yards per attempt (8.5) and first in passing TD rate (8.6%).

He’s a good bet for top-10 production the rest of the way, with upside into the top-5 if he finds more volume.

Sam Darnold, Seattle Seahawks

If you’re looking for a matchup-based starter for the second half of the season, Sam Darnold might help.

He gets the second-easiest remaining QB schedule, including five games against bottom-10 QB defenses. Four of those come over Darnold’s next five outings.

He’s faced two bottom-10 QB defenses so far this season, finishing QB4 and QB14 in fantasy points those weeks.

That makes Darnold a streamer to line up now before the soft part of the slate hits.

Other QBs Getting Easier Schedules:

• Deshaun Watson, Cleveland Browns
• Baker Mayfield, Tampa Bay Buccaneers
• Aaron Rodgers, Pittsburgh Steelers
• Bo Nix, Denver Broncos

Second-Half Schedule Fallers

Brock Purdy, San Francisco 49ers

After facing the 11th-easiest QB schedule through Week 8, Brock Purdy draws the third-toughest slate the rest of the way. He actually gets plus matchups the next two weeks vs. the Raiders and Cowboys. But three of his next five games come against top-four QB defenses (Vikings, Seahawks, Chargers).

Those Vikings (first against QBs) and Seahawks (second) matchups are particularly tough. Jordan Love back in Week 1 is the only QB to reach 15 fantasy points against Minnesota this season. Seattle held Purdy to a 189-2-1 passing line in Week 5.

Purdy might be benchable for a streamer those weeks, but I wouldn’t worry about finding a replacement for the rest of the season. He’s played well all year, his weaponry should be getting healthier, and none of his other matchups are too scary.

C.J. Stroud, Houston Texans

C.J. Stroud has been one of the bigger fantasy surprises at QB so far, sitting 13th in fantasy points per game.

He’s benefited from the third-easiest QB schedule, with four of his seven games coming against bottom-nine defenses. Stroud’s production hasn’t been overly matchup-sensitive. He averaged 21.7 points against those bottom-nine QB defenses vs. 20.6 in his other three games.

But the schedule is about to get much tougher. Stroud’s remaining slate ranks seventh-toughest. It includes just one bottom-10 defense and five top-nine units.

Stroud still looks usable in spots the rest of the way, particularly against the Colts in Week 11 and Commanders in Week 14. But you don’t wanna be relying on him as an every-week starter.

Other QBs Getting Tougher Schedules:

• Bryce Young, Carolina Panthers
• Geno Smith, New York Jets

Running Backs

Second-Half Schedule Risers

Denver Broncos

Is Jonah Coleman about to be a league winner? (Or is Jonathan Taylor about to arrive to a cushy Broncos RB schedule?)

Denver has the second-easiest remaining RB schedule after facing the toughest slate over the first eight weeks. The favorable stretch starts this week against the Panthers’ 30th-ranked RB defense. That’s one of five remaining games against bottom-eight RB defenses. The only top-14 RB defense left on the schedule is the Patriots in Week 17.

You might have missed your window to acquire Coleman, but the rookie looks like at least a top-24 RB going forward if he dodges a Taylor trade.

J.K. Dobbins and even RJ Harvey are also worth rostering in case Coleman misses time over the second half.

Cincinnati Bengals

Chase Brown has been one of the biggest underachievers at RB. The role has been solid. Brown sits 11th at the position with 16.6 expected PPR points per game. But his 13.0 actual points per game rank 20th. That 3.6-point gap is the fifth-biggest among RBs.

Cincinnati’s schedule hasn’t helped. It’s been the 10th-toughest so far, including three games against top-eight RB defenses.

Brown gets just one more top-eight defense the rest of the way (Ravens in Week 17) and four games against bottom-seven units. Overall, it’s the fourth-easiest remaining RB schedule.

Brown might not be good enough to be a league winner over the second half. But if he maintains his current role against the upcoming schedule, expect him to produce top-15 numbers, with a shot at the top 12.

Other Backfields Getting Easier Schedules:

• Indianapolis Colts
• Cleveland Browns
• Seattle Seahawks
• Miami Dolphins

Second-Half Schedule Fallers

Atlanta Falcons

Should we be worried about Bijan Robinson? He’s finished outside the top-12 RBs in PPR points in four straight games. He’s faced the fifth-toughest RB schedule over that stretch. But it’s not going to get easier.

The Falcons get the toughest remaining RB schedule. Negative matchups await in the next two games before a Week 11 bye. Then comes a gauntlet featuring three top-seven RB defenses over the next five games.

Robinson at least closes the fantasy season against the Saints’ 31st-ranked RB defense if you make it that far.

Robinson is ultimately too talented, and his role too strong, to worry us too much. But it’s certainly fair to expect Jahmyr Gibbs and potentially Ken Walker and Christian McCaffrey to out-score him the rest of the way.

Baltimore Ravens

As if Derrick Henry needed more bad news.

Baltimore’s QB injuries threaten the positive game script that Henry needs. And he draws the third-toughest remaining RB schedule.

The Panthers in Week 11 are the only truly plus matchup left on Henry’s slate. He has two remaining games against top-four RB defenses: the Jaguars in Week 9 and the Buccaneers in Week 14.

I’d treat Henry as just a mid-range RB2 going forward and would be happy to sell him for anything more than that.

Other Backfields Getting Easier Schedules:

• Houston Texans
• Washington Commanders
• Detroit Lions

Wide Receivers

Second-Half Schedule Risers

Pittsburgh Steelers

Pittsburgh’s WRs get the biggest boost in first-half vs. second-half schedule. This WR corps has faced the eighth-toughest schedule so far, with no games against bottom-nine defenses. The remaining schedule ranks easiest, with four games against bottom-nine units.

D.K. Metcalf is a close-your-eyes-and-buy target. He hasn’t played very well this year and ranks 43rd in PPR points per game. But he’s all the way up at 16th in expected points per game and should get a schedule boost going forward.

Germie Bernard is also worth buying at WR4+ prices coming off two straight finishes outside the top 40. He’ll need to contend with the return of Michael Pittman soon, but I’d bet on Bernard staying ahead of the veteran.

Chicago Bears

Chicago’s WRs get an even more extreme schedule boost than their QB. The Bears have faced the third-toughest WR schedule so far but get the fourth-easiest slate the rest of the way and the easiest from Week 11 on. The final seven games feature four against bottom-five WR defenses.

I’d be aggressively trying to buy both Luther Burden and Rome Odunze right now. Odunze, who sits WR53 in PPR points per game right now, is an especially strong target.

Tennessee Titans

I recommended trading for Carnell Tate last week. That was before we knew he’d miss the Bengals game with a shoulder injury. We’ll see if he’s ready to go after the Week 9 bye, but he remains an intriguing buy candidate if healthy.

Tate has seen strong usage this season, ranking 15th among WRs in target share, fourth in air-yards share, and 25th in expected PPR points per game. He sits just 36th in actual points per game, due largely to poor QB play.

Cam Ward is coming off his best game of the season, though, and we often see rookies improve over the second half of the year.

Then there’s the schedule. Tennessee has the third-easiest remaining WR slate, highlighted by five matchups against bottom-seven units:

• Jaguars (Week 10)
• Cowboys (Week 11)
• Jaguars (Week 12)
• Lions (Week 14)
• Raiders (Week 16)

And one of Tate’s other games comes against a leaky Commanders secondary.

There’s a path to top-24 production for Tate the rest of the way. See if you can acquire him at a WR3 price or cheaper this week.

Other WR corps getting easier second-half schedules:

• Kansas City Chiefs
• Miami Dolphins
• Minnesota Vikings

Second-Half Schedule Fallers

Buffalo Bills

D.J. Moore is healthy(ish) just in time for the schedule to turn brutal. Week 9’s game vs. the Vikings’ top-ranked WR defense starts a streak of four straight games against top-seven units. The Jets (Week 10) and Dolphins (Week 11) don’t have particularly scary secondaries, but they both rank bottom-nine in WR targets faced. The Bills might not need to throw much in those games.

Two of Buffalo’s remaining neutral matchups even come against the Patriots and Packers, who both rank top eight in pass defense DVOA.

Moore probably hasn’t done enough to be worth selling right now. And QB Josh Allen is good enough to prop Moore’s production through this tough schedule. But don’t expect him to be a league winner.

New York Jets

Jets WRs draw the fifth-toughest remaining schedule. The close is particularly tough:

• Week 14: Broncos (ninth against WRs)
• Week 15: Cardinals (19th)
• Week 16: Patriots (21st)
• Week 17: Vikings (first)

Garrett Wilson has been relatively disappointing so far, ranking 20th among WRs in PPR points per game. He might not be better against this second-half schedule.

Omar Cooper and Adonai Mitchell have swapped big games over the last two weeks, and both are exciting talents. But between the target competition and schedule, I expect more busts than booms from both guys the rest of the way. I’d be willing to sell both guys for WR3 prices.

Other WR Corps Getting Tougher Schedules:

• Philadelphia Eagles
• Cincinnati Bengals
• New York Giants
• Houston Texans

Tight Ends

Second-Half Schedule Risers

Kyle Pitts, Atlanta Falcons

Kyle Pitts trudged through the ninth-toughest TE schedule over the first eight weeks. Now he’s blessed with, by far, the easiest remaining schedule. He still faces each of the league’s four worst TE defenses:

• Week 9: Bengals
• Week 10: Chiefs
• Week 13: Lions
• Week 15: Commanders

Pitts also gets the Browns’ 25th-ranked TE defense in Week 14 and neutral matchups against the Bucs and Saints in Weeks 16 and 17.

You’ll want to bench him vs. the Vikings’ second-ranked unit in Week 12, but Pitts could be a viable every-week TE1 otherwise.

Mike Gesicki, Cincinnati Bengals

Mike Gesicki has a TD in five straight games and six of seven overall, despite facing the third-toughest TE schedule. The matchups are about to get much easier.

The Bengals get the second-easiest remaining TE schedule, with no games against top-15 TE defenses and five against bottom-10 units. Four of those plus matchups come over the final five weeks of the fantasy season.

Between the schedule and injuries to other Bengals TEs boosting Gesicki’s route rate to a season-high 74% last week, he has a chance to score as a top-12 fantasy TE the rest of the way.

Colston Loveland, Chicago Bears

Colston Loveland has already recovered from a slow start, ranking seventh among TEs in PPR points per game over the last five weeks and third over the last three. That production has come while facing the league’s toughest TE schedule. Loveland has already faced three of the top five TE defenses.

He has just one game against a top-five defense left, and just two others against top-14 units. Loveland gets Miami’s 24th-ranked TE defense in Week 14, plus two more games against the Lions’ 31st-ranked TE defense, in Weeks 12 and 17. Overall, it’s the eighth-easiest remaining TE schedule.

Brock Bowers, Trey McBride, and George Kittle are the only TEs I’d rather have than Loveland the rest of the way.

Other TEs Getting Easier Schedules:

• Trey McBride, Cardinals
• Terrance Ferguson, Rams
• Harold Fannin, Browns

Second-Half Schedule Fallers

Tucker Kraft, Green Bay Packers

Tucker Kraft is rounding into form coming off last year’s ACL tear, ranking sixth among TEs in PPR points per game over the last five weeks.

He’s been helped by the 11th-easiest TE schedule so far, including the third-easiest over the last five weeks.

Kraft faces a much tougher slate of opponents going forward. His next three opponents -- Patriots, Vikings, Rams -- rank top-seven against TEs. He also faces the Bills’ and Texans’ top-11 units in weeks 14 and 17. Kraft’s only remaining top-19 matchup comes against Miami in Week 15.

Kraft’s talent, plus a pass-heavy Packers offense, should keep him safely inside the top-10 TEs the rest of the way. But the schedule might cap the upside.

Kraft is a viable sell-high candidate if you have another top-10 TE on your roster.

Sam LaPorta, Detroit Lions

Sam LaPorta gets a juicy Week 9 matchup against the Dolphins’ 24th-ranked TE defense. Then things get tough.

The Lions draw the third-toughest schedule from Week 10. It brings four top-12 TE defenses and none sitting outside the top 18.

The good news: LaPorta has already been producing in spite of the schedule. He faced the fifth-toughest slate from Weeks 1 through 8.

A strong role in a strong offense should keep LaPorta humming as a mid-range TE1 the rest of the way. But the schedule won’t help.

George Kittle, San Francisco 49ers

George Kittle is about to go from the fourth-easiest TE schedule from weeks 1 through 8 to the fourth-toughest from Week 9 on. He actually gets a plus matchup against Vegas’ 28th-ranked TE defense this week, but that’s followed by five straight games against top-12 units. 

Kittle gets a reprieve in Week 16 vs. the Chiefs, who rank 30th against TEs. But he gets the Eagles’ ninth-ranked unit in fantasy championship week.

Kittle posted a 5-24-0 line in his only game so far this season against a top-16 TE defense, not including his limited Week 1.

The schedule is noteworthy and might keep Kittle from being a true league winner over the second half. But I wouldn’t worry much. 

The Vikings (Week 11) and Seahawks (Week 12) are the only truly elite defenses left on the schedule that could limit this high-scoring 49ers offense.

Other TEs Getting Tougher Schedules:

• Dallas Goedert, Philadelphia Eagles
• Jake Ferguson, Dallas Cowboys
• Greg Dulcich, Miami Dolphins
• AJ Barner, Seattle Seahawks