A.J. Brown - Fantasy Points Outlook

What You Need to Know:

• Brown has finished 25th, 5th and 27th in half-PPR points per game in his 3 seasons; 32nd, 7th and 29th in PPR.
• He fared better in yards per target, ranking 1st and 9th his in his 1st 2 seasons but fell to 49th in 2021.
• Since he entered the league, Brown ranks 5th in yards per target among 117 WRs with at least 90 targets.
• Brown ranks 18th among the same group in PPR points per game. He jumps to 4th in PPR points per target.
• A key to that production has been Brown ranking 8th among the group in TD rate. The 7 ahead of him:
  
  • Gabriel Davis
  • Adam Thielen
  • Mike Evans
  • Ja’Marr Chase
  • Tre’Quan Smith
  • D.K. Metcalf
  • Breshad Perriman
• He ranks just 26th in total targets; 43rd in targets per game.
• Volume has been an issue. Tennessee sported the 2nd most run-heavy offense last season, 3rd most run-heavy in 2020 and 4th most run-heavy in 2021.
• Moving to Philadelphia might not help. The Eagles finished last season as the league’s most run-heavy offense, running on 51.2% of offensive plays.
• DeVonta Smith ranked 25th among WRs in target share in 2021.
• Brown struggled through multiple injuries last season. He dealt with a knee issue in preseason, missed 1 game with a hamstring injury and lost 3 more to a November chest injury.
• Before all that, Brown had surgery on both knees following the 2020 season. It was deemed “cleanup” at the time. Brown said he played through the issues despite being told in Week 2 of 2020 that he was done for the year.

Draft Sharks Bottom Line:

Brown has been a terrific and efficient player to this point. But target volume has been a significant issue, and moving to last year’s most run-heavy offense doesn’t seem to solve that. The Eagles will surely throw more than last season. How much more? We’ll see. Brown also must contend with DeVonta Smith and Dallas Goedert, both upgrades over what joined Brown from those positions in Tennessee. You’ve heard about the years-long off-field connection between Brown and QB Jalen Hurts. That can only help their on-field performance. But it also matters only so much if his target share doesn’t climb into WR1 territory. He’s still getting drafted in that range. And although he’s a good, young player with a team that paid in both picks and contract extension to add him, there’s a lot more downside risk than ceiling potential from his Round 3 ADP.