A.J. Brown Fantasy Overview

He Powered Through a Poor Start

Brown compiled 78 catches, 1,003 yards, and 7 TDs in 15 games. He overcame a slow start that included games of 8, 27, 7, and 43 yards over the first five weeks.

Brown’s season-long profile remained strong: WR12 in PPR points per game and WR13 in half-PPR. He gave fantasy managers four top-12 PPR weeks, four more inside the top-24, and two others inside the top-36. Only one of his five finishes outside the top-45 occurred over his final 10 games.

Last year marked Brown’s fourth straight season between WR7 and WR12 in PPR points per game

No Change to His No. 1 Role

Brown edged DeVonta Smith in target share across 15 shared games, 27.5% to 22.9%. That followed strong, team-high target shares over Brown’s first three seasons in Philadelphia:

• 24.5% (2022)
• 27.4% (2023)
• 31.1% (2024)

Efficiency was a Mixed Bag

Brown tallied career lows in yards per catch (12.7), yards after catch per reception (3.3), and yards per route run (1.96).

It wasn’t all negative. Brown finished sixth out of 110 qualifiers in ESPN’s receiver score -- which tracks a player’s ability to get open, make catches, and generate yards after the catch -- and ranked ninth in ESPN’s open score. That suggests there wasn’t a dropoff in his play.

So what’s behind the dip? Two factors stand out.

Brown's Frustration Hits a Boiling Point

The Eagles broke in Kevin Patullo as OC last year, and his unit finished just 19th in points per game, 20th in yards per play, and 24th in yards per game. Philly also went without scoring a second-half point in six games.

ESPN’s Jeremy Fowler reported early in the season that Brown’s “love-hate relationship” with the passing game was a “worst-kept secret inside the league.” Another ESPN report said Brown grew frustrated with Jalen Hurts’ unwillingness to make tight-window throws vs. zone.

Injury History Adds New Entries

Brown missed about one week of training camp with a hamstring injury. He later missed a Week 8 game with another hamstring injury, then rested for Week 18 ahead of the postseason.

Brown’s injury history shows a pattern of knee and hamstring injuries going back to 2020. Still, he played all 17 games in both 2022 and 2023 before a hamstring injury cost him three games in 2024.

After the trade to New England, Brown downplayed any concern over his knees.

"Maybe in four years I’ve missed one game from a shot to the knee,” he said via NESN. “So, that’s nothing to worry about. I’m ready to go.”

Brown Remains the Top Target

After costing New England a 2028 first-round pick, Brown steps in as the Patriots’ lead target.

Romeo Doubs landed a significant four-year contract that includes $39 million guaranteed, but the gap between him and Brown has been wide to date.

Doubs has never topped 724 receiving yards in a season and led his team in target share twice in four years. Brown has reached 1,000 yards in six of seven seasons and led his team in targets every year.

Our projections have Brown at a 27% target share, well ahead of Doubs’ 18.3% mark. The Pats will fill in the passing game with secondary targets like Hunter Henry, Kayshon Boutte, Demario Douglas, and Kyle Williams.

Maye Supplies an Upgrade

Drake Maye crushed expectations in a Year 2 breakout, leading the league in completion rate and yards per attempt while topping Brown’s old QB in several other notable metrics:

Maye probably won’t repeat that historic efficiency, but the former third overall pick still looks like an ascending talent capable of supporting Brown’s WR1 outlook.

Expect the Pats to Throw More

OC Josh McDaniels returns after leading an offense that finished 26th in pass rate but fifth in pass rate over expected and 18th in neutral pass rate. A similar pattern showed in the red zone, with New England finishing 16th in RZ pass rate and sixth in RZ pass rate over expected.

We expect more pass volume in 2026 after the Pats upgraded the WR corps.

History Supports Another WR1 Season

A 27% target share, a QB upgrade, and Brown’s long history of WR1 production are plenty to support another high-end season. He has finished top-12 in PPR points per game in five of the past six seasons, with the lone miss coming in 2021 with the Titans.

Can He Stay Healthy and Avoid a Decline?

Brown enters the summer without any known injury concerns, but his lower-body history bears watching after four missed games over the past two seasons. There’s also potential for his play to fall off naturally as a 29-year-old. That’s three years past the average age of peak WR production, according to our historical aging curves.