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A.J. Brown - Fantasy Points Outlook

Basic StatsA.J. Brown's Basic Stats

A.J. Brown
ADP: 3.4
Bye: 7
Experience: 3 Yr(s)
Age: 25.2
Height: 6'0"
Weight: 226
40 Time: 4.49
Speed Score: 109.70
SPARQx (Rank): 119.50 (88%)
Burst Score (Rank): 122.10 (56%)
Agility Score (Rank): 11.25 (49%)
Catch Radius (Rank): 10.12 (66%)

A.J. Brown's Weekly Outlook

Week 4 Projections
Rec Rec Yds Rec TDs Fantasy Pts
5.8 83.7 0.6 12
Weekly Writeup

Rest Of Way Outlook

Rec Rec Yds Rec TDs Fantasy Pts
5.1 76.2 0.6 11.2

A.J. Brown's 2022 Projections & Outlook


#11 Wide Receiver

157.6 Projected Points

ADP Rec Rec Yds Rec TDs 100 Fum
3.4 73.9 1098.1 8.2 2.7 0.7

3D Projections DS 3D Projections

Basic StatsA.J. Brown's Preseason Player Analysis

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What You Need to Know:

  • Brown has finished 25th, 5th and 27th in half-PPR points per game in his 3 seasons; 32nd, 7th and 29th in PPR.
  • He fared better in yards per target, ranking 1st and 9th his in his 1st 2 seasons but fell to 49th in 2021.
  • Since he entered the league, Brown ranks 5th in yards per target among 117 WRs with at least 90 targets.
  • Brown ranks 18th among the same group in PPR points per game. He jumps to 4th in PPR points per target.
  • A key to that production has been Brown ranking 8th among the group in TD rate. The 7 ahead of him:
    • Gabriel Davis
    • Adam Thielen
    • Mike Evans
    • Ja’Marr Chase
    • Tre’Quan Smith
    • D.K. Metcalf
    • Breshad Perriman
  • He ranks just 26th in total targets; 43rd in targets per game.
  • Volume has been an issue. Tennessee sported the 2nd most run-heavy offense last season, 3rd most run-heavy in 2020 and 4th most run-heavy in 2021.
  • Moving to Philadelphia might not help. The Eagles finished last season as the league’s most run-heavy offense, running on 51.2% of offensive plays.
  • DeVonta Smith ranked 25th among WRs in target share in 2021.
  • Brown struggled through multiple injuries last season. He dealt with a knee issue in preseason, missed 1 game with a hamstring injury and lost 3 more to a November chest injury.
  • Before all that, Brown had surgery on both knees following the 2020 season. It was deemed “cleanup” at the time. Brown said he played through the issues despite being told in Week 2 of 2020 that he was done for the year.

Draft Sharks Bottom Line:

Brown has been a terrific and efficient player to this point. But target volume has been a significant issue, and moving to last year’s most run-heavy offense doesn’t seem to solve that. The Eagles will surely throw more than last season. How much more? We’ll see. Brown also must contend with DeVonta Smith and Dallas Goedert, both upgrades over what joined Brown from those positions in Tennessee. You’ve heard about the years-long off-field connection between Brown and QB Jalen Hurts. That can only help their on-field performance. But it also matters only so much if his target share doesn’t climb into WR1 territory. He’s still getting drafted in that range. And although he’s a good, young player with a team that paid in both picks and contract extension to add him, there’s a lot more downside risk than ceiling potential from his Round 3 ADP.

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DeVonta Smith, WR PHI

8:05pm EDT 9/26/22

Smith delivers big Week 3

Eagles WR DeVonta Smith led the team in targets (12), receptions (8) and receiving yards (169) in Sunday's win over the Commanders. He grabbed 1 of Jalen Hurts' 3 TD passes, leaving 1 apiece for WR A.J. Brown and TE Dallas Goedert. Brown checked in 2nd in the other 3 categories, tallying a 5-85-1 receiving line on 10 targets. Goedert managed just 3-26-1 on 4 looks in a game he left briefly with a shin issue. Smith looks like he'll reside much closer to Brown in target share than the opener in Detroit suggested.

View all DeVonta Smith Shark Bites »

Eagles WR A.J. Brown still led the team in targets in Week 2, but his 8 looks merely beat WR DeVonta Smith by 1 and TE Dallas Goedert by 2. Brown caught 5 balls for 69 yards in the easy win over Minnesota. Smith caught all 7 of his targets for 80 yards, while Goedert supplied 5 receptions for a team-high 82 yards. QB Jalen Hurts spread his other 10 pass attempts among 5 teammates. WR Quez Watkins caught the night's only TD pass, a 53-yarder that was 1 of his 2 receptions on 2 targets. Brown's share marked a predictable fall from the heights of Week 1, but he still garnered 25.8% target share vs. Minnesota.

View all A.J. Brown Shark Bites »

If the opener laid out Philly's passing plan, then WR A.J. Brown will not have any target-volume issues. Instead, he'll be a big problem for his teammates. Brown claimed 13 targets among QB Jalen Hurts' 32 pass attempts in Sunday's win over the Lions, a 40.6% share. That's certainly not a rate we'd bet on continuing. But Brown could lose a quarter of that share and still rank among the league leaders in the category. He caught 10 balls for 155 yards, factoring in at all levels of the passing game. No other Eagle drew more than 4 targets, with TE Dallas Goedert, WR DeVonta Smith and RB Kenneth Gainwell tying for 2nd place. Goedert managed 3 catches for 60 yards. Smith didn't catch a pass. Brown will obviously remain a weekly starter for any fantasy team that drafted him. Goedert looks fine to continue using, as we'd expect at least a slight bump from his Week 1 target share of 12.5%. Smith would be better to bench at least until we see this passing picture develop a little further. Smith did, at least, play 6 more snaps than Brown and run 1 more route vs. Detroit.

View all A.J. Brown Shark Bites »

Dynasty Overview View WR Dynasty Rankings »

A.J. Brown, WR PHI
Dynasty MVP 151.1
Position Rank #6 WR
3yr Projection
5yr Projection
10yr Projection
Dynasty Write-up
Multiple injuries conspired to limit Brown's 2021 production. His knees will be worth watching going forward, as the young wideout has already incurred multiple surgeries. He has continued to dominate when on the field, though. Since Brown entered the league in 2019, only Davante Adams, Cooper Kupp, Stefon Diggs and Justin Jefferson have more 100-yard receiving games. Brown will turn 25 at the end of June. The move to Philadelphia brings tougher competition -- but we're betting on these Eagles throwing more than the Titans have recently.

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