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A.J. Brown - Fantasy Points Outlook

Basic StatsA.J. Brown's Basic Stats

A.J. Brown
ADP: N/A
Bye: 7
Experience: 3 Yr(s)
Age: 25.6
Height: 6'0"
Weight: 226
40 Time: 4.49
Speed Score: 109.70
SPARQx (Rank): 119.50 (88%)
Burst Score (Rank): 122.10 (56%)
Agility Score (Rank): 11.25 (49%)
Catch Radius (Rank): 10.12 (66%)

A.J. Brown's Weekly Outlook

This is a regular season feature

We’ll have detailed analysis of this player’s performance added here after each week’s game. Weekly outlooks are posted Tuesday at 1pm EST each week.

Rest Of Way Outlook

A.J. Brown's 2022 Projections & Outlook

Scoring

#11 Wide Receiver

157.6 Projected Points

ADP Rec Rec Yds Rec TDs 100 Fum
Not Available 73.9 1098.1 8.2 2.7 0.7

3D Projections DS 3D Projections

Basic StatsA.J. Brown's Preseason Player Analysis

View WR Fantasy Rankings »

What You Need to Know:

  • Brown has finished 25th, 5th and 27th in half-PPR points per game in his 3 seasons; 32nd, 7th and 29th in PPR.
  • He fared better in yards per target, ranking 1st and 9th his in his 1st 2 seasons but fell to 49th in 2021.
  • Since he entered the league, Brown ranks 5th in yards per target among 117 WRs with at least 90 targets.
  • Brown ranks 18th among the same group in PPR points per game. He jumps to 4th in PPR points per target.
  • A key to that production has been Brown ranking 8th among the group in TD rate. The 7 ahead of him:
    • Gabriel Davis
    • Adam Thielen
    • Mike Evans
    • Ja’Marr Chase
    • Tre’Quan Smith
    • D.K. Metcalf
    • Breshad Perriman
  • He ranks just 26th in total targets; 43rd in targets per game.
  • Volume has been an issue. Tennessee sported the 2nd most run-heavy offense last season, 3rd most run-heavy in 2020 and 4th most run-heavy in 2021.
  • Moving to Philadelphia might not help. The Eagles finished last season as the league’s most run-heavy offense, running on 51.2% of offensive plays.
  • DeVonta Smith ranked 25th among WRs in target share in 2021.
  • Brown struggled through multiple injuries last season. He dealt with a knee issue in preseason, missed 1 game with a hamstring injury and lost 3 more to a November chest injury.
  • Before all that, Brown had surgery on both knees following the 2020 season. It was deemed “cleanup” at the time. Brown said he played through the issues despite being told in Week 2 of 2020 that he was done for the year.


Draft Sharks Bottom Line:

Brown has been a terrific and efficient player to this point. But target volume has been a significant issue, and moving to last year’s most run-heavy offense doesn’t seem to solve that. The Eagles will surely throw more than last season. How much more? We’ll see. Brown also must contend with DeVonta Smith and Dallas Goedert, both upgrades over what joined Brown from those positions in Tennessee. You’ve heard about the years-long off-field connection between Brown and QB Jalen Hurts. That can only help their on-field performance. But it also matters only so much if his target share doesn’t climb into WR1 territory. He’s still getting drafted in that range. And although he’s a good, young player with a team that paid in both picks and contract extension to add him, there’s a lot more downside risk than ceiling potential from his Round 3 ADP.

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Recent Shark Bites View All Shark Bites »

A.J. Brown, WR PHI

12:02am EST 1/22/23

Brown disappoints in Divisional Round victory

Eagles WR A.J. Brown roped 3 of 6 targets for 22 yards in Saturday's Divisional Round win vs. the Giants. Teammate WR DeVonta Smith led the team in receiving in this contest, corraling 6 of 10 targets for 61 yards and 1 TD. TE Dallas Goedert also found the end zone in addition to 5 receptions and 58 yards of his own. QB Jalen Hurts was extremely efficient as a passer in this contest, but the game plan was considerably more focused on the rushing attack. Fantasy managers who roster Brown in playoff contests will hope for better luck next week.

View all A.J. Brown Shark Bites »

Eagles WR DeVonta Smith hauled in 9 of 13 targets for 115 yards in Week 17's loss vs. the Saints. Just behind Smith's team-leading output in the box score is teammate WR A.J. Brown, who managed to corral 4 of 9 targets for 97 yards and a TD. TE Dallas Goedert had a quiet effort with 3 catches and 45 yards of his own. Smith and Goedert are the lone fantasy bright spots from the Eagles in a rather disappointing game overall. Hopefully the Eagles will have QB Jalen Hurts back under center in Week 18 vs. the Giants.

View all DeVonta Smith Shark Bites »

Eagles WR A.J. Brown (knee) practiced fully on Friday and doesn't carry an injury designation in advance of Week 17 vs. the Saints. Brown has been an elite fantasy option all season. Without QB Jalen Hurts last week vs. the Cowboys, he logged 103 receiving yards with 6 receptions on 8 targets from QB Gardner Minshew. There's no reason to believe Brown will slow down on Sunday. Fire him up with confidence in your lineups.

View all A.J. Brown Shark Bites »

Eagles WR A.J. Brown (knee/rest) logged limited participation at practice again on Thursday. It's clear the Eagles are being cautious with Brown based on his injury designation. We'll have a better idea tomorrow as to whether or not he'll get the green light to play in Week 17 vs. the Saints.

View all A.J. Brown Shark Bites »

Dynasty Overview View WR Dynasty Rankings »

A.J. Brown, WR PHI
Dynasty MVP 141.5
Position Rank #15 WR
3yr Projection
5yr Projection
10yr Projection
428
725
1,366
Dynasty Write-up
As a 1st-year Eagle, Brown shoved aside injury concerns to set a career-high in catches and yards. Buddy Jalen Hurts really took off as a passer, which should help dynasty managers sleep at night going forward. Brown is only 25 years old.
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