What You Need to Know:

• Brown posted a 70-1075-11 receiving line in 14 games last year.
• He finished 14th among WRs in total PPR points and 7th in points per game; 10th and 5th in non-PPR.
• And that was despite tying for just 30th among WRs with 106 targets.
• Brown’s 2.30 PPR points per target ranked 6th among 87 WRs with 50+ targets.
• He ranked 8th among those 87 in yards per target and 3rd in yards per route run.
• Brown and Will Fuller were the only WRs (min. 50 targets) to finish top 10 in PPR points per target, yards per target and yards per route run last year.
• That all followed a super impressive rookie season that saw Brown tally a 52-1051-8 line and again rank 3rd among qualifying WRs in yards per route run.
• Over the past 2 seasons, he sits 1st in PPR points per target and 2nd in yards per target among 80 WRs with 100+ targets.
• The Titans lost WR Corey Davis, WR Adam Humphries and TE Jonnu Smith this offseason. Those guys combined for 192 targets (a 40% share) last year.
• Tennessee swung a trade for WR Julio Jones in June. He’s 32 now and had his fair share of injury problems. But he’s remained dominant when on the field. We’re projecting him to see more than the 6.6 targets per game Davis averaged last year.
• TE Anthony Firkser returns but won’t soak up all of the 65 targets Smith leaves behind.
• So there’s still room for Brown to see a bigger share of the targets this year.
• There’s also a chance the Titans’ pass volume grows. They ranked 30th in both pass rate and pass attempts last season. That’s partly by design. But going 11-5 and trailing for only 42% of offensive snaps helped boost the run rate. Consider this: Tennessee threw the ball on just 41% of their snaps when leading but 56% when trailing last year. So if they’re trailing more this year -- and Vegas has their over/under win total set at 9 -- the pass rate figures to climb.
• The Titans lost OC and play-caller Arthur Smith, who took Atlanta’s HC job. He’ll be replaced by Todd Downing. He spent the past 2 seasons as Tennessee’s TE coach, so the team is looking for continuity in scheme. But Downing has just 1 season of NFL OC experience. That came back in 2017 with the Raiders, who finished 17th in total yards and 23rd in points.
• Brown missed 2 games last year with what was described by ESPN’s Adam Schefter at the time as a “pretty significant knee bruise.” In January, Brown underwent surgery on both of his knees, so his status will need to be monitored this summer. Brown played in all 16 games as a rookie and was healthy throughout his college career at Ole Miss.

Draft Sharks Bottom Line:

Brown has been 1 of the most efficient WRs in football over the past 2 seasons. He’s 14th at the position in total PPR points during that span, despite ranking just 33rd in targets.

We’re expecting Brown to set a new career high in targets this year. The Titans added WR Julio Jones this offseason but lost WR Corey Davis, WR Adam Humphries and TE Jonnu Smith.

As long as new OC Todd Downing can keep this passing game on track, Brown should produce as a WR1 with big spike-week potential.