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A.J. Brown - Fantasy Points Outlook

Basic Stats Basic Stats

A.J. Brown
TEN

WR TEN

#3 Wide Receiver

203 Projected Points

ADP: Not Available
Bye: 13
Experience: 2 Yr(s)
Age: 24
Height: 6'1"
Weight: 226
40 Time: 4.49

Weekly Outlook

3d Projection

Low Floor

6.7

DS Projection

11.2

Consensus

38 other sites
11

Low Ceiling

14.9

Rest of
Season

9.8

Week 7 Projections
Rec Rec Yds Rec TDs Fantasy Pts
5.5 75.5 0.6 11.2
Weekly Writeup
Brown faced a worse matchup in Week 6 and enjoyed a strong 2nd half (7-91 receiving). The Chiefs have allowed 3 WR games of 113+ yards so far.

Rest Of Way Outlook

Rec Rec Yds Rec TDs Fantasy Pts
4.6 66 0.5 9.8
Week 6
The offense relied heavily on Derrick Henry in this game and Brown was a non-factor in the 1st half. Brown went into halftime without a single touch. However, he was instrumental in the Titans’ comeback win. Tannehill consistently looked for him in the 2nd half when the Titans had to pass. Brown led the team in targets, receptions and yards in this game. Julio Jones had to leave the game with a hamstring injury, so the Titans continued to lean on Brown in the passing game. He finished the game with 7 catches for 91 yards.
Brown and the Titans receivers will have an opportunity to feast this weekend against a Kansas City defense that has given up 850 receiving yards and 7 TDs to WRs through 6 weeks. Julio Jones may miss some more time with a hamstring injury, so Brown will likely see an uptick in targets moving forward. We have him at WR7 this week against the Chiefs. The next three games on the schedule for the Titans are KC, @IND, and @LAR. We have Brown ranked as our WR17 the rest of the way.
Week 5
Brown caught 3 of 6 targets for 36 yards in Week 5 against Jacksonville.
Brown looked healthy and didn't suffer any setbacks after sitting out last week with a hamstring injury. Brown has had a slow start to the season but was tackled inside the 1-yard line in the first half and will certainly have some big games in the 2nd half of the season.
Week 2
It was a tough day for Brown as he was credited with 3 drops. This includes a deep pass down the sideline that could have completely changed the outlook of his fantasy day. Unfortunately this bad day from Brown hurt fantasy owners as he only finished with a 3-43 line. The drops shouldn’t be an issue for Brown moving forward as he only had 11 in his first two seasons combined.
In 2020, A.J Brown was up and down vs. their week 3 opponent, the Colts, but did have a big day in week 12 with 4-98-1. This makes A.J. Brown a player to buy as he still led the team in routes with 41 and targets with 9 last week.
Week 1
Brown was one of the lone bright spots for this anemic offense. He led the team in targets with 8, catching 4 for 49 yards and a score. If this is a floor performance, those who rostered him will be thrilled. Going forward, Brown should be just fine. He proved to be the alpha yet again this season with Tannehill looking his way with regularity. If the offensive line improves, Brown should see a higher quality of targets, improving his catch rate and production. Look for a more well-rounded showing this week at Seattle.

Basic Stats Preseason Player Analysis

What You Need to Know:

  • Brown posted a 70-1075-11 receiving line in 14 games last year.
  • He finished 14th among WRs in total PPR points and 7th in points per game; 10th and 5th in non-PPR.
  • And that was despite tying for just 30th among WRs with 106 targets.
  • Brown’s 2.30 PPR points per target ranked 6th among 87 WRs with 50+ targets.
  • He ranked 8th among those 87 in yards per target and 3rd in yards per route run.
  • Brown and Will Fuller were the only WRs (min. 50 targets) to finish top 10 in PPR points per target, yards per target and yards per route run last year.
  • That all followed a super impressive rookie season that saw Brown tally a 52-1051-8 line and again rank 3rd among qualifying WRs in yards per route run.
  • Over the past 2 seasons, he sits 1st in PPR points per target and 2nd in yards per target among 80 WRs with 100+ targets.
  • The Titans lost WR Corey Davis, WR Adam Humphries and TE Jonnu Smith this offseason. Those guys combined for 192 targets (a 40% share) last year.
  • Tennessee swung a trade for WR Julio Jones in June. He’s 32 now and had his fair share of injury problems. But he’s remained dominant when on the field. We’re projecting him to see more than the 6.6 targets per game Davis averaged last year.
  • TE Anthony Firkser returns but won’t soak up all of the 65 targets Smith leaves behind.
  • So there’s still room for Brown to see a bigger share of the targets this year.
  • There’s also a chance the Titans’ pass volume grows. They ranked 30th in both pass rate and pass attempts last season. That’s partly by design. But going 11-5 and trailing for only 42% of offensive snaps helped boost the run rate. Consider this: Tennessee threw the ball on just 41% of their snaps when leading but 56% when trailing last year. So if they’re trailing more this year -- and Vegas has their over/under win total set at 9 -- the pass rate figures to climb.
  • The Titans lost OC and play-caller Arthur Smith, who took Atlanta’s HC job. He’ll be replaced by Todd Downing. He spent the past 2 seasons as Tennessee’s TE coach, so the team is looking for continuity in scheme. But Downing has just 1 season of NFL OC experience. That came back in 2017 with the Raiders, who finished 17th in total yards and 23rd in points.
  • Brown missed 2 games last year with what was described by ESPN’s Adam Schefter at the time as a “pretty significant knee bruise.” In January, Brown underwent surgery on both of his knees, so his status will need to be monitored this summer. Brown played in all 16 games as a rookie and was healthy throughout his college career at Ole Miss.

Draft Sharks Bottom Line:

Brown has been 1 of the most efficient WRs in football over the past 2 seasons. He’s 14th at the position in total PPR points during that span, despite ranking just 33rd in targets.

We’re expecting Brown to set a new career high in targets this year. The Titans added WR Julio Jones this offseason but lost WR Corey Davis, WR Adam Humphries and TE Jonnu Smith.

As long as new OC Todd Downing can keep this passing game on track, Brown should produce as a WR1 with big spike-week potential.

Recent Shark Bites View All Shark Bites »

Titans WR A.J. Brown is active for tonight's game vs. the Bills. He was added to the injury report as questionable with an illness on Sunday, but we're not expecting that to be a factor tonight.

View all A.J. Brown Shark Bites »

The Titans added WR A.J. Brown to the injury report today, calling him questionable with an illness. We’ll see about further details. For now, try to secure an insurance option if you’ve been planning to use Brown

View all A.J. Brown Shark Bites »

Titans WR A.J. Brown said in a Friday press conference that he expects to remain on a snap count in Monday night's game vs. the Bills. Brown played 64% of the offensive snaps in his return last week -- but was in a route on 89% of pass plays. As long as that latter number stays in that range, Brown is safe to keep in fantasy lineups.

View all A.J. Brown Shark Bites »

Titans WR A.J. Brown (hamstring) isn’t listed on the final injury report. He practiced all week, including full workouts on Thursday and Friday, so it doesn’t look like we should be concerned about that hamstring.

View all A.J. Brown Shark Bites »

Titans WR A.J. Brown (hamstring) graduated to a full practice on Thursday. He's on track to return for this weekend's game vs. the Jaguars -- and should dominate targets with WR Julio Jones still out.

View all A.J. Brown Shark Bites »

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