A.J. Brown - Fantasy Points Outlook

Bottom Line

Brown ranks third in receiving yards over the past two seasons. At 27, he remains a dynamic fantasy asset with week-winning ability.

While he’ll learn a new offense under OC Kellen Moore, Brown’s volume should ultimately remain north of 130. That type of volume supplies a clear-cut WR1 outlook.

What We Learned Last Year

• Brown appeared in all 17 games for the second straight season.
  • He went down in Week 18 with a knee injury that cost him the Wild Card round.
• Overall, the former Titan posted career highs in targets (158) and catches (106).
  • He finished fifth among WRs in yards (1,456) but was just OK as a TD scorer (7).
• Jalen Hurts’ rushing prowess played a role in the TD output.
  • Twenty-two pass catchers saw more red zone targets than Brown.
  • The Eagles ranked last in pass rate inside the 10 and inside the 20.
  • However, Brown ranked 10th in red zone target share; 4th in goal-to-go target share.
• All told, Brown finished as a fantasy WR1 in eight weeks.
  • He finished outside the top-36 WRs only three times (removing Week 18).
• Brown's underlying profile showed no cause for concern.
  • His catch rate, contested catch rate, targets per route run, and yards per route run all fell in line with career averages.
  • Only one WR beat Brown’s 31.1% target share (Davante Adams).

What to Expect in 2024

• The Eagles return QB Jalen Hurts, WR2 DeVonta Smith, and TE Dallas Goedert.
• Hurts’ passing performance dipped last year, but we’re optimistic he can rebound with better health. (He played a chunk of the year with a knee issue.)
• OC Brian Johnson was replaced by Kellen Moore, who called plays for the Chargers in 2023.
  • He’s expected to bring more formation diversity and pre-snap motion to a team that rarely used it in ‘23.
  • Here’s a comment from Smith at OTAs: “I would say it just gives you more space at times…When you’re getting bunches and things like that, guys don’t press as much. And it kind of confuses the defense, so it gives you more space and opportunity to do things.”
  • The 2023 Chargers ranked 8th in neutral pass rate. Philly sat 26th.
  • The Chargers ranked 6th in first-down pass rate, while the Eagles slotted 13th.
• The Eagles enter the summer with an uninspiring group of potential WR3s.
• GM Howie Roseman invested serious money in RB Saquon Barkley. It’s a clear signal that the team will remain committed to the run.