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A.J. Brown - Fantasy Points Outlook

Basic Stats Basic Stats

A.J. Brown
TEN

WR TEN

#3 Wide Receiver

203 Projected Points

ADP: 2.10
Bye: 13
Experience: 2 Yr(s)
Age: 24
Height: 6'1"
Weight: 226
40 Time: 4.49

2021 Projections & Outlook

Scoring

#3 Wide Receiver

203 Projected Points

ADP Rec Rec Yds Rec TDs 100 Fum
2.10 89 1350 11 6

3D Projections DS 3D Projections

3d Projection

Med Floor

172.6

DS Projection

203

Consensus

38 other sites
166.1

Low Ceiling

227.4

Ceiling Likelihood

Medium
How likely they will reach their ceiling projection

Basic Stats Preseason Player Analysis

What You Need to Know:

  • Brown posted a 70-1075-11 receiving line in 14 games last year.
  • He finished 14th among WRs in total PPR points and 7th in points per game; 10th and 5th in non-PPR.
  • And that was despite tying for just 30th among WRs with 106 targets.
  • Brown’s 2.30 PPR points per target ranked 6th among 87 WRs with 50+ targets.
  • He ranked 8th among those 87 in yards per target and 3rd in yards per route run.
  • Brown and Will Fuller were the only WRs (min. 50 targets) to finish top 10 in PPR points per target, yards per target and yards per route run last year.
  • That all followed a super impressive rookie season that saw Brown tally a 52-1051-8 line and again rank 3rd among qualifying WRs in yards per route run.
  • Over the past 2 seasons, he sits 1st in PPR points per target and 2nd in yards per target among 80 WRs with 100+ targets.
  • The Titans lost WR Corey Davis, WR Adam Humphries and TE Jonnu Smith this offseason. Those guys combined for 192 targets (a 40% share) last year.
  • Tennessee swung a trade for WR Julio Jones in June. He’s 32 now and had his fair share of injury problems. But he’s remained dominant when on the field. We’re projecting him to see more than the 6.6 targets per game Davis averaged last year.
  • TE Anthony Firkser returns but won’t soak up all of the 65 targets Smith leaves behind.
  • So there’s still room for Brown to see a bigger share of the targets this year.
  • There’s also a chance the Titans’ pass volume grows. They ranked 30th in both pass rate and pass attempts last season. That’s partly by design. But going 11-5 and trailing for only 42% of offensive snaps helped boost the run rate. Consider this: Tennessee threw the ball on just 41% of their snaps when leading but 56% when trailing last year. So if they’re trailing more this year -- and Vegas has their over/under win total set at 9 -- the pass rate figures to climb.
  • The Titans lost OC and play-caller Arthur Smith, who took Atlanta’s HC job. He’ll be replaced by Todd Downing. He spent the past 2 seasons as Tennessee’s TE coach, so the team is looking for continuity in scheme. But Downing has just 1 season of NFL OC experience. That came back in 2017 with the Raiders, who finished 17th in total yards and 23rd in points.
  • Brown missed 2 games last year with what was described by ESPN’s Adam Schefter at the time as a “pretty significant knee bruise.” In January, Brown underwent surgery on both of his knees, so his status will need to be monitored this summer. Brown played in all 16 games as a rookie and was healthy throughout his college career at Ole Miss.

Draft Sharks Bottom Line:

Brown has been 1 of the most efficient WRs in football over the past 2 seasons. He’s 14th at the position in total PPR points during that span, despite ranking just 33rd in targets.

We’re expecting Brown to set a new career high in targets this year. The Titans added WR Julio Jones this offseason but lost WR Corey Davis, WR Adam Humphries and TE Jonnu Smith.

As long as new OC Todd Downing can keep this passing game on track, Brown should produce as a WR1 with big spike-week potential.

 

Recent Shark Bites View All Shark Bites »

If you're still worrying about Titans WR A.J. Brown's offseason knee surgeries, you can stop now. From The Tennessean's Ben Arthur: "Any concerns about Brown being limited to start training camp because of the knee surgeries were quickly put to rest. He practiced without any bands or braces on his knees and looked dominant throughout practice." Brown is coming off a top 7 finish in fantasy points per game last season and projects as a mid-range WR1 again in 2021.

View all A.J. Brown Shark Bites »

Titans WR A.J. Brown (knees) will be a "full go" for the start of training camp, according to insider Paul Kuharsky. Brown underwent surgery on both knees early this offseason and was sidelined for spring workouts. But it looks like he'll be at 100% for the start of the 2021 campaign. Brown's ADP is sitting in the early 3rd round of recent FFPC drafts.

View all A.J. Brown Shark Bites »

Titans WR A.J. Brown missed spring workouts and is still rehabbing after undergoing offseason surgery to both knees. "I am not getting impatient, but excited," Brown said. "I am excited to get back on the field, and get back out there with my teammates, just to be out there again. I have been rehabbing, and I have been taking it slow. And I'll be back out there soon." Details on Brown's injuries and rehab have been scarce. We'll see if he's ready for the start of camp next month or is forced to open on the PUP list.

View all A.J. Brown Shark Bites »

Titans WR A.J. Brown (knee) is active for tonight’s game against the Bills. He put in a full practice on Saturday, so we’re expecting him to play something close to his usual role tonight. And Brown’s matchup gets a big boost with Bills CB Tre’Davious White out.

View all A.J. Brown Shark Bites »

Titans WR A.J. Brown (knee) is listed as questionable for Tuesday's game against the Bills. He was listed as a full participant on Saturday, so it looks like he'll be back for this one. Pencil Brown into fantasy lineups for now -- and we'll let you know if something changes with his status. Bills top CB Tre'Davious White is questionable with a back injury. His absence would be a big boost to Brown's matchup.

View all A.J. Brown Shark Bites »

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