The Eagles are finally sending WR A.J. Brown to the Patriots for a 2028 first-round pick and a 2027 fifth-rounder, according to multiple reports. The deal is pending a Brown physical, of course, but has been expected for months now. ESPN reports that waiting until June 1 allowed the Eagles to split Brown’s $40 million cap hit between this year and next. (NFL Network’s Mike Garafolo calls it $43 million, with $27 million of that on the team’s 2027 cap.)
NFL Network’s Ian Rapoport: “The Eagles save $50M or so on AJ Brown, money they’ve spent acquiring standout edge Jonathan Greenard from the Vikings. This also helps them recoup the picks, getting a future 1 and a 5 for Brown after giving up a 3, a future 3, and getting back a 7 with Greenard.”
Brown has been terrific across seven NFL seasons, but this is already the second time a team has moved him, and he won’t turn 29 until the end of this month.
Brown’s coming off a career-low 12.9 yards per catch and career-low 50.4% receiving success rate. His PPR points per game also decreased each of the past three seasons, from 17.7 in his first Eagles campaign to 17.2, 16.7, and then 14.7.
But Brown also still ranked 17th in yards per route among 76 WRs who drew 50+ targets, according to Pro Football Focus. And just 70% of his targets were catchable, down from 74% and 78% the previous two seasons.
Brown’s probably descending physically, heading into his age-29 season with a history of surgeries to both knees. But he’ll almost certainly still be the top receiver in New England.
We’ll have to see where Brown’s target share lands on a new team with a third-year QB and an offense that also paid up for WR Romeo Doubs in free agency. But Doubs hasn’t come close to Brown’s production over the past four years and has yet to reach a 19% target share in a season, so he’s unlikely to challenge Brown there.
Ultimately, this looks like a lateral move for Brown’s fantasy value but with the potential to enhance his outlook.
He benefited in Philly from:
But New England offers a passer (Drake Maye) with more upside, and a scheme that could throw a lot more. The Pats and Eagles tied at 52.7% pass last season, but New England’s 56.6% neutral pass rate ranked sixth in the league, vs. Philly at 15th (52.9%).
We’ve been projecting Brown for a while as though he’d be playing for the Patriots. He sits among the top 12 WRs across formats in our fantasy football rankings.
We’ve also been projecting Eagles pass catchers as if Brown were gone, so don’t expect Smith to move from his WR15-16 spot in our PPR rankings.
Rookie Makai Lemon looks like the biggest winner for the trade finally going through, confirming that he’ll run second among Philly wideouts right away. The Eagles’ low passing volume limits Lemon’s projection to WR4 territory, but he sports upside from that range.
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