Allen Robinson - Fantasy Points Outlook

What You Need to Know:

• Robinson is coming off an ugly 2021 season. He missed 5 games, 3 with a hamstring injury and 2 on the COVID list, and mustered just 38 catches for 410 yards and 1 TD.
• Robinson finished 94th among WRs in both PPR and non-PPR points per game.
• He dealt with shaky QB play from Justin Fields, Andy Dalton and Nick Foles. The Bears ranked 23rd in Pro Football Focus’ passing grades.
• But Robinson wasn’t very good in his own right. Among 89 WRs with 50+ targets last season, Robinson ranked 65th in Pro Football Focus’ receiving grades and 80th in yards per route run.
  • By comparison, teammate Darnell Mooney ranked 30th in PFF grade and 38th in yards per route run.
• Robinson turns 29 in August.
• He ranked 5th and 12th in PFF receiving grade the previous 2 years; 18th and 29th in yards per route.
• Robinson inked a 3-year, $46.5 million deal with the Rams in free agency. It makes him the league’s 21st-highest-paid WR in terms of average annual salary.
• Robinson gets a huge upgrade in quality of offense with the move from Chicago to Los Angeles. Here’s how the Bears and Rams ranked in basic offensive categories last year:

• Matt Stafford will easily be the best QB Robinson has ever played with.
• The Rams return last year’s top 3 target-getters in WR Cooper Kupp, WR Van Jefferson and TE Tyler Higbee.
• But WR Robert Woods was traded to the Titans in March. And WR Odell Beckham remains unsigned as of mid-June after tearing his ACL in the Super Bowl.
  • Those 2 combined for 19.3% of the Rams’ targets, 17.7% of the catches, 17.6% of the receiving yards and 22.0% of the receiving TDs last year.
  • Woods played the first 9 games of last season before tearing his ACL. Beckham then played the final 8 games after being acquired from the Browns. They combined for 222.7 PPR points in those 17 games, which would have ranked 23rd among WRs.
• Robert Mays of The Athletic stated, "The staff here is in love with Allen Robinson. From his approach in meetings to what he can give them in this offense. His route tree and where he can line up are more varied than they'd even hoped. Potential monster year incoming."

Draft Sharks Bottom Line:

Robinson’s 2021 season was concerning. He was in a bad Bears offense, but his underlying metrics were bad, including a Pro Football Focus receiving grade that landed him 65th among 89 qualifiers.

But Robinson was excellent the previous couple of years and will play this season at just 29. A bounce-back is certainly doable, especially with the massive upgrade in supporting cast he gets with the move to Los Angeles.

Even if Robinson’s own performance doesn’t return to pre-2021 levels, the opportunity with the Rams should at least make him a lower-end fantasy starter. And if his play does rebound, a top-20 fantasy finish is likely.