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Antonio Gibson - Fantasy Points Outlook

Basic Stats Basic Stats

Antonio Gibson
WAS

RB WAS

#12 Running Back

209 Projected Points

ADP: 2.5
Bye: 9
Experience: 1 Yr(s)
Age: 23
Height: 6'0"
Weight: 228
40 Time: 4.39

2021 Projections & Outlook

Scoring

#12 Running Back

209 Projected Points

ADP Rush Atts Rush Yds Rush TDs 100 Fum Rec Rec Yds Rec TDs
2.5 242 1075 8 2 2 50 415 2

3D Projections DS 3D Projections

3d Projection

Med Floor

183.9

DS Projection

209

Consensus

38 other sites
141.5

High Ceiling

267.5

Ceiling Likelihood

Medium
How likely they will reach their ceiling projection

Basic Stats Preseason Player Analysis

What You Need to Know:

  • Gibson’s rookie performance looks particularly impressive when you consider that it was his 1st turn as a true RB. Even as a high school senior, Gibson averaged just 11.4 carries across 10 games in a hybrid role.
  • Since 2002 -- when the NFL expanded to 32 teams -- Gibson’s 795 rushing yards rank 11th-most among 311 rookie RBs drafted in Round 3 or later.
  • Gibson ranked 8th in Football Outsiders’ rushing DYAR and 6th in DVOA among 47 qualifying RBs.
  • Pro Football Focus graded him 5th-best in rushing among all 142 graded HBs.
  • Gibson ranked just 60th among 154 RBs in receiving grade, though. And Football Outsiders rated him 45th in receiving DYAR and 44th in DVOA among 50 qualifying RBs.
  • Gibson ranked 18th among RBs in rushing attempts but tied for just 25th in targets, despite playing in an offense that allowed J.D. McKissic to lead all RBs in targets.
  • Gibson’s target share dipped slightly from 9.5% before the Week 8 bye to 8.9% after the bye (in games he played).
  • McKissic jumped from 13.6% before the bye to 20.8% in games they shared after the bye.
  • ESPN’s John Keim reports that Washington wants Gibson to run more pass routes this year.
  • HC Ron Rivera says, “I expect he can make a big jump.”
  • Gibson derived a lot of his fantasy value from wonderful TD luck. He scored on 6.5% of his carries for the season. The entire position combined for a 3.5% TD rate -- and even that rate was the league’s highest for at least the past 11 seasons.
  • So Gibson is likely to score less, even if his workload increases.
  • Good news: His O-line fared well in the run game in 2020. Washington ranked 16th in Football Outsiders’ adjusted line yards and 10th in PFF run-blocking grade. The team has attempted to shore up its OT spots by signing Charles Leno in free agency and drafting Samuel Cosmi in Round 2. We’ll see who settles in at which position.
  • Gibson left Week 13 early with turf toe, which cost him the next 2 games and limited his snaps in Week 16. He admitted in OTAs that the injury still bugged him, though he said it wasn’t limiting what he could do. This situation will bear watching through the summer.

Draft Sharks Bottom Line:

Expect some TD regression from Gibson in Year 2, but that doesn’t necessarily mean we should expect a drop in fantasy performance. He’s the clear leader in a backfield that lacks depth. A significant part of J.D. McKissic’s 2nd-half target boost came via increased snaps at WR spots. Outside of the turf toe that cost him 2 late-season games and portions of 2 others, Gibson saw no downturn in playing time. So his fortune and McKissic’s likely aren’t tethered as much as the typical backfleld duo.

Gibson heads into just his 2nd year as a true RB and brings more extensive receiving experience at the college and high school levels than many other backs. It sure seems fair to expect him to improve. We’ll see whether Washington’s offense holds Gibson back, but the imports of QB Ryan Fitzpatrick, WR Curtis Samuel and rookie WR Dyami Brown upgrade the surrounding talent vs. last year. Gibson belongs in the mix of RBs at the 2-3 turn.

 

Recent Shark Bites View All Shark Bites »

Washington HC Ron Rivera called RB Antonio Gibson's improvement this offseason "exciting." Gibson ran for 795 yards and 11 scores on 4.7 yards per carry as a rookie last year -- despite totaling just 33 carries in college. "You can tell he's matured, got a better feel and understanding," Rivera said. "Those natural instincts that you look for, the intangibles that guys that have been playing the positions their whole career naturally have. You start to see those come to light with Antonio." RBs coach Randy Jordan added that Gibson's comfort in the running scheme is "like night and day" between last year and this year. Washington is also looking to expand Gibson's role in the passing game this season. There's big-time breakout potential here.

View all Antonio Gibson Shark Bites »

The Athletic's Ben Standig has come away from spring practices believing RB Antonio Gibson is set to "become a bigger factor as a receiver" this season. Gibson was out-targeted 110 to 44 by RB J.D. McKissic last year. But Gibson beat McKissic in yards per target and just trailed him in yards per route run and Pro Football Focus receiving grade -- all as a rookie. Considering Gibson played some WR during his time at Memphis, it makes sense that he'd be capable of taking on a bigger role in the passing game this season. Locked in as Washington's lead ball-carrier, there's RB1 upside here depending on how many targets Gibson garners.

View all Antonio Gibson Shark Bites »

Washington RB Antonio Gibson admitted that the toe he injured last December isn't yet back to 100%. Gibson decided not to have surgery on the toe and is still rehabbing. "I've been cutting in practice ... and getting better each day," he said. "Definitely something to monitor. I've been fine like I said. I've been cutting and running full speed, making cuts I need to make. ... But I definitely got to watch and make sure I stay up on my treatment, so nothing goes south." The situation is something fantasy owners will need to monitor, too. Toe injuries can be tough to play through, especially for skill-position guys.

View all Antonio Gibson Shark Bites »

Washington HC Ron Rivera told insider JP Finlay that he's expecting a "big jump" from RB Antonio Gibson this season. Gibson exceeded expectations as a runner last year, averaging 4.7 yards per carry and scoring 11 times on 170 attempts. He added a 36-247-0 receiving line but should have more to offer there after playing both RB and WR in his final season at Memphis. Gibson has feature-back and RB1 potential in 2021.

View all Antonio Gibson Shark Bites »

Washington RB Antonio Gibson (toe) is active for tonight's game against the Buccaneers. That comes as no surprise after Gibson played through the injury last week. He remained limited in his 2 practice appearances this week, though, and gets a terrible matchup. The Bucs finished the season ranked 1st in Football Outsiders' run-defense DVOA.

View all Antonio Gibson Shark Bites »

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