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Antonio Gibson - Fantasy Points Outlook

Basic Stats Basic Stats

Antonio Gibson
WAS

RB WAS

#12 Running Back

212 Projected Points

ADP: Not Available
Bye: 9
Experience: 1 Yr(s)
Age: 23
Height: 6'0"
Weight: 228
40 Time: 4.39

Weekly Outlook

Week 20 Projections

This player does not have a weekly prediction

Rest Of Way Outlook

Week 14
Gibson had 10 carries for 36 yards but didn’t play after losing a fumble in the 3rd quarter. It was his 6th fumble and 4th fumble lost, both the most by any NFL RB this season. He was not a factor in the passing game, catching both targets for just 5 yards.
HC Ron Rivera has benched Gibson in the past and brought him back for the next game. He has been more sure handed as a pass receiver, catching 69 of 82 targets. But look at this season’s production in the passing game this season: Take away a 73-yard reception and his 32 other catches totaled 148 yards, less than 5 yards per catch. As a rookie in 2020, Gibson had 2 100-yard rushing games and 4 TDs on the ground in his 2 games vs. Dallas. He could have success in Week 16 against the Cowboys or Week 17 against the Giants’ 25th-ranked rushing D. A bigger factor is a patchwork O-line that lost 2 players during Sunday’s game.
Week 13
As expected, Gibson got workhorse usage in Vegas with J.D. McKissic out with his concussion. Gibson played 82% of Washington’s offensive snaps, ran a route on 68% of pass plays, handled 23 of 25 RB carries and racked up 6 targets (a 20% share). He finished with 88 rushing yards, plus 5 catches for 23 yards and a score.

We’ll see if McKissic makes it back for Week 14. His return would siphon some passing-game work from Gibson. But remember that Gibson saw 7 targets back in Week 12, when McKissic didn’t exit until the 4th quarter with his head injury. Gibson has also averaged 23.8 carries in 4 games since the bye.

It’s worth noting that Washington has won all 4 of those games, so game script has worked in Gibson’s favor. That might not be the case in Week 14 with Washington 4-point underdogs to the Cowboys. But expect Gibson to see enough target volume -- along with most of the rushing work -- to continue posting strong fantasy numbers.
Week 12
It appears as if Gibson is either getting healthy or finding a better way to manage the pain after another strong performance. He gained 111 yards on 29 carries against Seattle. Gibson also caught all 7 of his targets for 35 yards. This was the most targets he has seen in any game since Week 1 and more than double most of his starts.

In fact, per NBC Sports Edge’s John Daigle, Gibson set career-highs in snap share (67%), carries (29), catches (7), and touches (36) in this one.

This performance comes on the heels of 95 yards on 19 carries against Carolina. In fact, Gibson is averaging 24 carries per game over his last 3 starts.

Going forward, this trend can continue for Gibson assuming Washington can hang around in games. They face the Raiders next, followed by 2 each with Cowboys and Eagles. It may be hard to hang around with Dallas, but division games are often a little closer than many expect.

Gibson becomes a smash play down the stretch if he can continue to see this kind of volume.
Week 11
Gibson lost a fumble and was benched for a large portion of the 1st half, keeping him from posting a 100-yard performance on a 49% snap share. He was bottled up a bit on many of his 1st half runs, but he was a different player after the intermission. He had numerous runs where he fought through traffic to gain chunks of yardage on his way to posting 5 yards per carry. Unfortunately, Gibson wasn’t targeted, but Washington only targeted J.D. McKissic twice, so it may have been something in the game plan that kept the team from throwing to their RBs.

Since he’s managed playing through his shin fracture all season and has seen increased usage since the team’s Week 9 bye, it seems reasonable to think he’ll continue his current production the rest of the way. Unfortunately, the physical limitations will likely keep him from posting the flashy games we saw in 2020, but expecting 50-70 yards per game along with a couple targets should keep him squarely in the solid RB2 range. And as we’ve seen on a couple occasions this year, he has multi-TD upside in any game to give him an elevated ceiling.
Week 8
It looked like Gibson was trending up health-wise heading into Week 8. He put in a full practice on Friday and wasn’t listed on the final injury report.

But Gibson ended up playing his smallest role of the season in the loss to Denver. He registered season lows with a 33% snap rate and 8 carries. He was out-carried 11 to 8 by Jaret Patterson and out-targeted 8 to 3 by J.D. McKissic.

Gibson finished the week 36th among RBs in PPR points -- his 3rd straight week outside the top 30.

He gets a Week 9 bye, and we’ll see if he comes back healthier. But, especially with a brutal Week 10 matchup vs. the Bucs, Gibson is better off on fantasy benches until we see him back in a more fantasy-friendly role.
Week 7
Playing through a hairline fracture in his shin, Gibson ranked as the PPR RB33 in Sunday’s loss to Green Bay. That despite seeing a decent 16 touches and having both targets drawn up as designed screens. To us, Gibson even looked fine despite his injury, forcing several missed tackles and showing no hesitation while making cuts. The issue was missed TD opportunities. He was stuffed twice at the goal line — plus he fumbled inside the 10 yard-line (although Washington recovered). J.D. McKissic remained an upside-capper, too, handling 4 carries and 6 targets. Gibson travels to Denver this week before a Week 9 bye.
Week 6
Not much stood out for Gibson in Sunday’s loss to Kansas City. At least not much positive. Gibson lost a fumble when he was stripped on an inside run. He also dropped an easy dump-off that had big-gain potential. Overall, the 2nd-year back mustered only 44 yards on 10 carries while playing through a stress fracture in his shin. That injury is why we’re selling Gibson ahead of a potential downturn in his health. Next up is a road date at Green Bay that figures to have Washington playing from behind.
Week 5
Gibson played through the stress fracture in his shin, and it shows in his inefficiency. While he saw 20 of 26 team RB attempts and scored 2 short-range TDs, he tallied only 60 yards against a strong New Orleans run D. The Saints also stacked 8+ men in the box on 40% of Gibson’s rushes, a top-8 rate on the week. Gibson added 2 catches for 12 yards, as he was out-targeted by J.D. McKissic — as usual — this time by a 4-2 margin. We’ll see if Washington manages Gibson’s workload going forward. He’s at least likely to miss some practice time as the team looks to keep him fresh over the long season. That means we’ll have to evaluate his outlook week to week here — although a Week 6 date with the lowly Chiefs D looks like a strong spot.
Week 4
Entering with a minor shin injury, Gibson went on to handle 14 carries for 63 yards and 1 goal line score. He caught both of his targets for 12 yards — 1 on a designed screen. J.D. McKissic and Jaret Patterson combined for 9 carries — hardly ideal — in a game that was close throughout. That duo combined for 6 targets as well. So while we love the talent with Gibson, he’ll need to remain efficient to stick as a weekly RB1. Through 4 games, his targets have gone 5, 2, 2 and 2. He gets a pair of home matchups over the next 2 weeks (New Orleans, Kansas City).
Week 3
Despite being a less than ideal matchup on paper, Gibson put together a strong fantasy day for those that started him. As a rusher, he tallied just 31 yards on 12 carries. Thankfully his fantasy day was saved when he caught 1 of his 2 targets and took it 71 yards for a TD.

It is performances like this that made Gibson such an intriguing draft pick heading into the season. While there will be plenty of weeks where he sees 20 carries and looks solid as a rusher, it's his skill as a pass catcher that can help salvage his day in less than ideal matchups.

Going forward there is little reason to not deploy Gibson. Would we like to see more volume in the passing game? Sure -- but as long as he gets 15 or more touches each week he has a real chance to score fantasy points.
Week 2
Gibson rushed for 69 yards in the Week 2 win over the Giants. He did it on 13 carries, adding two receptions for 4 yards. Gibson was the clear lead back for Washington but his play was overshadowed by a couple of monster plays by RB JD McKissic (93 total yards, 1TD). McKissic even sniped a goal line TD from Gibson just before halftime. It’s probably just tough luck for Gibson owners that he wasn’t chosen at the goal line this time. McKissic is a deadly weapon in the passing game and doesn’t pose much of a threat in the running game, so stick with Gibson as a low-end RB1 for now. He will face off against a Bills D that just shut down Miami in Week 2.
Week 1
Although Gibson played on 65% of the snaps (to 36% for J.D. McKissic), he had a total of 25 rushing attempts/targets to just 2 for McKissic, which is definitely what fantasy managers were hoping for. Overall, his production was good, as he averaged 4.75 yards per carry while posting over 100 yards from scrimmage. However, the Washington offense was out of sync all day, and Ryan Fitzpatrick was knocked out of the game early with a dislocated hip. As a result, there weren’t many RZ opportunities.

With Gibson’s touch count being elite for a team that ran just 55 plays, it stands to reason that when Washington runs more plays in games that Gibson can continue to see this excellent usage. With Ryan Fitzpatrick expected to miss multiple weeks with a dislocated hip, the dropoff to Taylor Heinecke could keep the team from getting in the red zone enough that it could lower Gibson’s chances to score TDs. But overall, he’s on track to perform as an RB1.

Basic Stats Preseason Player Analysis

What You Need to Know:

  • Gibson’s rookie performance looks particularly impressive when you consider that it was his 1st turn as a true RB. Even as a high school senior, Gibson averaged just 11.4 carries across 10 games in a hybrid role.
  • Since 2002 -- when the NFL expanded to 32 teams -- Gibson’s 795 rushing yards rank 11th-most among 311 rookie RBs drafted in Round 3 or later.
  • Gibson ranked 8th in Football Outsiders’ rushing DYAR and 6th in DVOA among 47 qualifying RBs.
  • Pro Football Focus graded him 5th-best in rushing among all 142 graded HBs.
  • Gibson ranked just 60th among 154 RBs in receiving grade, though. And Football Outsiders rated him 45th in receiving DYAR and 44th in DVOA among 50 qualifying RBs.
  • Gibson ranked 18th among RBs in rushing attempts but tied for just 25th in targets, despite playing in an offense that allowed J.D. McKissic to lead all RBs in targets.
  • Gibson’s target share dipped slightly from 9.5% before the Week 8 bye to 8.9% after the bye (in games he played).
  • McKissic jumped from 13.6% before the bye to 20.8% in games they shared after the bye.
  • ESPN’s John Keim reports that Washington wants Gibson to run more pass routes this year.
  • HC Ron Rivera says, “I expect he can make a big jump.”
  • Gibson derived a lot of his fantasy value from wonderful TD luck. He scored on 6.5% of his carries for the season. The entire position combined for a 3.5% TD rate -- and even that rate was the league’s highest for at least the past 11 seasons.
  • So Gibson is likely to score less, even if his workload increases.
  • Good news: His O-line fared well in the run game in 2020. Washington ranked 16th in Football Outsiders’ adjusted line yards and 10th in PFF run-blocking grade. The team has attempted to shore up its OT spots by signing Charles Leno in free agency and drafting Samuel Cosmi in Round 2. We’ll see who settles in at which position.
  • Gibson left Week 13 early with turf toe, which cost him the next 2 games and limited his snaps in Week 16. He admitted in OTAs that the injury still bugged him, though he said it wasn’t limiting what he could do. This situation will bear watching through the summer.

Draft Sharks Bottom Line:

Expect some TD regression from Gibson in Year 2, but that doesn’t necessarily mean we should expect a drop in fantasy performance. He’s the clear leader in a backfield that lacks depth. A significant part of J.D. McKissic’s 2nd-half target boost came via increased snaps at WR spots. Outside of the turf toe that cost him 2 late-season games and portions of 2 others, Gibson saw no downturn in playing time. So his fortune and McKissic’s likely aren’t tethered as much as the typical backfleld duo.

Gibson heads into just his 2nd year as a true RB and brings more extensive receiving experience at the college and high school levels than many other backs. It sure seems fair to expect him to improve. We’ll see whether Washington’s offense holds Gibson back, but the imports of QB Ryan Fitzpatrick, WR Curtis Samuel and rookie WR Dyami Brown upgrade the surrounding talent vs. last year. Gibson belongs in the mix of RBs at the 2-3 turn.

Recent Shark Bites View All Shark Bites »

Washington RB Antonio Gibson (hip) was limited in Wednesday's practice. He came off the COVID list earlier in the day and seems on track to play vs. the Giants this weekend.

View all Antonio Gibson Shark Bites »

Washington RB Antonio Gibson has been activated from the COVID list. He should be back for Sunday's finale vs. the Giants, but we'll have to see what Gibson does in practice this week. He's battled through a bunch of different injuries this season.

View all Antonio Gibson Shark Bites »

Washington RB Antonio Gibson was not activated from the COVID list on Saturday and will miss Sunday's game vs. the Eagles. Washington promoted RB Wendell Smallwood from the practice squad. He'll join Jaret Patterson and Jonathan Williams in the backfield.

View all Antonio Gibson Shark Bites »

Washington RB Antonio Gibson has been placed on the COVID list. He's a long shot to be cleared in time for Sunday's game vs. the Eagles. Gibson's absence will leave Washington with RBs Jaret Patterson and Jonathan Williams on the active roster. RB Wendell Smallwood will likely be elevated from the practice squad. We'd expect Patterson and Williams to split most of the rushing work, with Smallwood potentially playing on passing downs. In other words, it's a situation to avoid in Week 17 fantasy lineups.

View all Antonio Gibson Shark Bites »

Washington RB Antonio Gibson (hip) did not practice on Thursday after being limited on Wednesday. It's unclear if he suffered a setback or just got the day off. We'll learn more tomorrow.

View all Antonio Gibson Shark Bites »

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