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Antonio Gibson - Fantasy Points Outlook

Basic StatsAntonio Gibson's Basic Stats

Antonio Gibson
ADP: 9.4
Bye: 14
Experience: 3 Yr(s)
Age: 25.3
Height: 6'2"
Weight: 220
40 Time: 4.39
Burst Score (Rank): 118.50 (49%)

Antonio Gibson's Weekly Outlook

Week 4 Projections
Rush Yds Rush TDs Rec Rec Yds Rec TDs Fantasy Pts
15.1 0.1 3.2 25.1 0.1 5
Weekly Writeup

Rest Of Way Outlook

Rush Yds Rush TDs Rec Rec Yds Rec TDs Fantasy Pts
20.1 0.2 2.6 18.1 0.1 5

Antonio Gibson's 2023 Projections & Outlook

Scoring

#50 Running Back

84.2 Projected Points

ADP Rush Atts Rush Yds Rush TDs 100 Fum Rec Rec Yds Rec TDs
9.4 85.1 406.3 2.4 0.9 2.9 38.4 271.3 1.3

3D Projections DS 3D Projections

Basic StatsAntonio Gibson's Preseason Player Analysis

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Bottom Line

Gibson took a step back last year. After a strong start – one with RB Brian Robinson sidelined – Gibson quickly lost his lead job.

The good news is Washington didn’t add legit competition for Gibson’s 2023 receiving role. And there’s a blank slate here for the unit overall following the arrival of former Chiefs OC Eric Bieniemy.

We’re not excited to draft any Commanders RB. But we’ll give the edge to the pass catcher in Gibson, who’s also coming off the board about half a round after Robinson in early drafts.


What We Learned Last Year
  • Gibson’s workload took a predictable hit following the addition of rookie RB Brian Robinson.
    • After seeing 16.1 carries per game in 2021, that number dipped to 9.9 last fall.
    • In 11 games together, Robinson out-carried him 181-96.
    • However, Gibson maintained the upper hand as a receiver, leading Robinson in targets 42-11.
  • Overall, Gibson finished as a top-12 PPR RB twice; a top-24 RB seven times.
  • Gibson missed the final two games with an MCL sprain and a foot fracture.
    • He underwent surgery on the foot in January, per HC Ron Rivera.
  • Gibson ran behind a poor O-line and dealt with a pair of inconsistent QBs (Carson Wentz and Taylor Heinicke).
    • Washington ranked fourth in plays per game but just 24th in points per game.
    • No surprise, then, that Gibson mustered only 3 rushing TDs, two of those with Robinson inactive.
    • This duo saw similar red-zone usage. Gibson averaged 1.66 RZ carries per game; Robinson 1.91.

What to Expect in 2023
  • This offseason, HC Ron Rivera talked about giving Gibson more work, an attainable goal after the light usage in 2022.
  • RB J.D. McKissic was released. That removes 40 targets from last year’s offense, and some figure to shift Gibson’s way.
  • Rookie RB Chris Rodriguez arrived in Round 6, but he’s not a receiving back (or a candidate for a major Year 1 role).
  • Eric Bieniemy joined on as the OC, replacing Scott Turner.
    • He’s spent the past 10 years in Kansas City – five as the RBs coach, five as the OC.
    • He worked in a collaborative play-calling role with HC Andy Reid as the Chiefs offense ranked top 6 in points and yards in each of Bieniemy’s seasons as OC.
    • Chiefs RBs ranked sixth, 20th, 12th, seventh, and eighth in yards per carry.
    • His lead backs over that stretch:
      • Kareem Hunt
      • Damien Williams
      • Clyde Edwards-Helaire
      • Darrel Williams
      • Isiah Pacheco
    • Ben Standig of The Athletic suggests that the team might implement more RB screens. Excellent news for Gibson, who averaged a career-high 7.7 yards per catch in 2022.
  • Washington’s offense still presents more questions than answers.
    • Sam Howell is the heavy favorite to start Week 1. But he saw the field for only the Week 18 start as a rookie.
    • The O-line looks average. They at least injected fresh talent in LG Nick Gates and RT Andrew Wylie.

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Brian Robinson Jr., RB WAS

11:45pm EDT 9/17/23

Brian Robinson scores twice

Commanders RB Brian Robinson hogged backfield work in Sunday's win over Denver. The second-year man compiled 87 yards and 2 TDs on 18 attempts (4.8 YPC). Robinson added 2-42 receiving, while backup Antonio Gibson mixed in for only 5 total touches. Robinson believes this is just the beginning of a breakout season. “I know I got a lot more in the tank that I can show,” he said after the win. “I’m taking those strides week in and week out. Eventually, it’ll be all out on display.” Robinson will face a pair of tough matchups (Bills and Eagles) over the next two weeks. He remains an RB2.

View all Brian Robinson Jr. Shark Bites »

Commanders RB Brian Robinson recorded 76% of the team’s backfield carries with 19 attempts for 59 rushing yards in Week 1’s victory over the Cardinals. Teammate RB Antonio Gibson saw 3 carries for 9 yards and added a single catch for 10 yards before a costly fumble saw him evaporate from the game. There are few things NFL coaches hate more than fumbles, and he paid dearly for it by being replaced by rookie RB Chris Rodriguez to end the contest. Fantasy managers will have a better idea of what the RB workshare split looks like in Week 2 vs. the Broncos, though it will be tough to bet against Robinson being the favorite Commanders’ back next Sunday.

View all Brian Robinson Jr. Shark Bites »

SI’s Albert Breer writes that Commanders RB Chris Rodriguez “will have a role (maybe a big one)” in 2023. Per Breer, the rookie Round 6 pick “has shown aggression and efficiency as a runner.” That matches up with his pre-draft profile. Over the past four seasons at Kentucky, the 220-pounder racked up 3,601 yards and 32 TDs. He added only 20 receptions over that stretch, though. And it’s tough to see him emerging as a fantasy factor behind Brian Robinson and Antonio Gibson.

View all Chris Rodriguez Shark Bites »

Commanders RB Antonio Gibson said Wednesday that he anticipates being in the “JD [McKissic] role” this season, playing on third downs and the two-minute drill. McKissic averaged just 4.4 carries but 5.8 targets per game in Washington over the last three years. We're expecting Gibson to get more rushing work than that, but anything close to that level of usage in the passing game would be golden. Gibson is one of our 2023 Fantasy Football Sleepers.

View all Antonio Gibson Shark Bites »

Per Ben Standig of The Athletic, Commanders HC Ron Rivera wants to get RB Antonio Gibson more touches in 2023. Rivera mentions how the fourth-year back meshes with what new OC Eric Bieniemy "wants to do with the offense" moving forward. Though Gibson is coming off a season that set career lows in carries (149), rushing yards (546), and rushing TDs (3), he did log a 46-353-2 line as a pass-catcher in 2022. It's possible Bieniemy sees Gibson as someone who could play a role similar to what Jerick McKinnon did for the Chiefs last year. Should that be the case, Gibson could be an absolute steal in PPR leagues as the receiving complement to teammate Brian Robinson. It'll be worth keeping an eye on this storyline as the offseason unfolds and we get into training camp.

View all Antonio Gibson Shark Bites »

Dynasty Overview View RB Dynasty Rankings »

Antonio Gibson, RB WAS
Dynasty MVP 59.6
Position Rank #56 RB
3yr Projection
5yr Projection
10yr Projection
211
309
469
Dynasty Write-up
Gibson’s role sharply declined in 2022, particularly as Brian Robinson got up to speed. Only 25 (in June), His rookie contract calls for one more season in Washington. Also note: Gibson is coming off January surgery for a foot fracture.
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