Antonio Gibson - Fantasy Points Outlook

Bottom Line

Once a productive RB1, Gibson bottomed out in Washington last season.

New England turns up a fine spot for passing down snaps and targets. But this unit doesn’t project as even league average when it comes to scoring. And Rhamondre Stevenson stands in the way of a significant rushing role.

Here’s the good news: Gibson is the RB50 in current Underdog drafts – well behind his spot in our PPR ranks. That makes him a player to highlight inside your Draft War Room.

What We Learned Last Year

• Gibson’s fantasy production hit rock bottom.
  • He set career lows in carries (65), yards (265), and TDs (1).
  • Playing behind Brian Robinson Jr., Gibson hit 10 carries in only one game.
• It wasn’t all doom and gloom, however.
  • On the small sample, Gibson tallied a league-low 3.1% tackled-for-loss rate.
  • He also ranked 4th in a 62 RB sample in yards after contact per attempt.
  • Essentially, he did well to avoid negative plays while still flashing the power/elusiveness that made him a rookie breakout.
• Gibson also flashed as a pass catcher.
  • The pass-happy Commanders helped supply career highs in targets (59), catches (48), yards (389), and yards per catch (8.1).
  • He impressed with 8.2 yards after catch per reception.
• Gibson missed one game with a toe injury. He sat out 2 games in 2022 with foot and knee injuries.

What to Expect in 2024

• Look for Gibson to slot in as the main pass-catching back.
• He signed a 3-year deal that includes $5.3 million guaranteed.
• Gibson still has NFL youth on his side at 26.
• Rhamondre Stevenson returns to handle the bulk of the rushing work. He’s seen roughly 13 carries per game over the past two seasons.
• The Patriots are breaking in a new coaching staff. HC Jerod Mayo was promoted from LB coach to HC. OC Alex Van Pelt arrives after serving in the same position with Cleveland.
  • Alex Van Pelt arrives as the new play-caller. His units have ranked top 10 in rushes in four of five seasons as OC.
• The Pats ranked 10th in run-block win rate last year, but there are questions about the ‘24 unit.
  • LT Chukwuma Okorafor wasn’t a full-time starter in Pittsburgh last year and will transition from RT.
  • G Cole Strange is expected to miss early-season games due to a knee injury, per NFL Network's Ian Rapoport.