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Antonio Gibson - Fantasy Points Outlook

Basic Stats Basic Stats

Antonio Gibson
WAS

RB WAS

#12 Running Back

212 Projected Points

ADP: Not Available
Bye: 9
Experience: 1 Yr(s)
Age: 23
Height: 6'0"
Weight: 228
40 Time: 4.39

Weekly Outlook

3d Projection

Low Floor

6.8

DS Projection

11.4

Consensus

38 other sites
13

Low Ceiling

16

Rest of
Season

11.6

Week 6 Projections
Rush Yds Rush TDs Rec Rec Yds Rec TDs Fantasy Pts
63 0.5 2.1 14.8 0.1 11.4
Weekly Writeup
Gibson has seen no fewer than 15 opportunities in any game so far, even with a still-lacking receiving role. There's risk that the Chiefs offense jumps to a big lead and limits Gibson's work. But K.C. arrives as the league's worst defense vs. the run (and worst overall). So there's also a chance Washington tries to lean on Gibson early -- and for as long as it can.

Rest Of Way Outlook

Rush Yds Rush TDs Rec Rec Yds Rec TDs Fantasy Pts
61 0.5 2.6 19 0.1 11.6
Week 5
Gibson played through the stress fracture in his shin, and it shows in his inefficiency. While he saw 20 of 26 team RB attempts and scored 2 short-range TDs, he tallied only 60 yards against a strong New Orleans run D. The Saints also stacked 8+ men in the box on 40% of Gibson’s rushes, a top-8 rate on the week. Gibson added 2 catches for 12 yards, as he was out-targeted by J.D. McKissic — as usual — this time by a 4-2 margin. We’ll see if Washington manages Gibson’s workload going forward. He’s at least likely to miss some practice time as the team looks to keep him fresh over the long season. That means we’ll have to evaluate his outlook week to week here — although a Week 6 date with the lowly Chiefs D looks like a strong spot.
Week 4
Entering with a minor shin injury, Gibson went on to handle 14 carries for 63 yards and 1 goal line score. He caught both of his targets for 12 yards — 1 on a designed screen. J.D. McKissic and Jaret Patterson combined for 9 carries — hardly ideal — in a game that was close throughout. That duo combined for 6 targets as well. So while we love the talent with Gibson, he’ll need to remain efficient to stick as a weekly RB1. Through 4 games, his targets have gone 5, 2, 2 and 2. He gets a pair of home matchups over the next 2 weeks (New Orleans, Kansas City).
Week 3
Despite being a less than ideal matchup on paper, Gibson put together a strong fantasy day for those that started him. As a rusher, he tallied just 31 yards on 12 carries. Thankfully his fantasy day was saved when he caught 1 of his 2 targets and took it 71 yards for a TD.

It is performances like this that made Gibson such an intriguing draft pick heading into the season. While there will be plenty of weeks where he sees 20 carries and looks solid as a rusher, it's his skill as a pass catcher that can help salvage his day in less than ideal matchups.

Going forward there is little reason to not deploy Gibson. Would we like to see more volume in the passing game? Sure -- but as long as he gets 15 or more touches each week he has a real chance to score fantasy points.
Week 2
Gibson rushed for 69 yards in the Week 2 win over the Giants. He did it on 13 carries, adding two receptions for 4 yards. Gibson was the clear lead back for Washington but his play was overshadowed by a couple of monster plays by RB JD McKissic (93 total yards, 1TD). McKissic even sniped a goal line TD from Gibson just before halftime. It’s probably just tough luck for Gibson owners that he wasn’t chosen at the goal line this time. McKissic is a deadly weapon in the passing game and doesn’t pose much of a threat in the running game, so stick with Gibson as a low-end RB1 for now. He will face off against a Bills D that just shut down Miami in Week 2.
Week 1
Although Gibson played on 65% of the snaps (to 36% for J.D. McKissic), he had a total of 25 rushing attempts/targets to just 2 for McKissic, which is definitely what fantasy managers were hoping for. Overall, his production was good, as he averaged 4.75 yards per carry while posting over 100 yards from scrimmage. However, the Washington offense was out of sync all day, and Ryan Fitzpatrick was knocked out of the game early with a dislocated hip. As a result, there weren’t many RZ opportunities.

With Gibson’s touch count being elite for a team that ran just 55 plays, it stands to reason that when Washington runs more plays in games that Gibson can continue to see this excellent usage. With Ryan Fitzpatrick expected to miss multiple weeks with a dislocated hip, the dropoff to Taylor Heinecke could keep the team from getting in the red zone enough that it could lower Gibson’s chances to score TDs. But overall, he’s on track to perform as an RB1.

Basic Stats Preseason Player Analysis

What You Need to Know:

  • Gibson’s rookie performance looks particularly impressive when you consider that it was his 1st turn as a true RB. Even as a high school senior, Gibson averaged just 11.4 carries across 10 games in a hybrid role.
  • Since 2002 -- when the NFL expanded to 32 teams -- Gibson’s 795 rushing yards rank 11th-most among 311 rookie RBs drafted in Round 3 or later.
  • Gibson ranked 8th in Football Outsiders’ rushing DYAR and 6th in DVOA among 47 qualifying RBs.
  • Pro Football Focus graded him 5th-best in rushing among all 142 graded HBs.
  • Gibson ranked just 60th among 154 RBs in receiving grade, though. And Football Outsiders rated him 45th in receiving DYAR and 44th in DVOA among 50 qualifying RBs.
  • Gibson ranked 18th among RBs in rushing attempts but tied for just 25th in targets, despite playing in an offense that allowed J.D. McKissic to lead all RBs in targets.
  • Gibson’s target share dipped slightly from 9.5% before the Week 8 bye to 8.9% after the bye (in games he played).
  • McKissic jumped from 13.6% before the bye to 20.8% in games they shared after the bye.
  • ESPN’s John Keim reports that Washington wants Gibson to run more pass routes this year.
  • HC Ron Rivera says, “I expect he can make a big jump.”
  • Gibson derived a lot of his fantasy value from wonderful TD luck. He scored on 6.5% of his carries for the season. The entire position combined for a 3.5% TD rate -- and even that rate was the league’s highest for at least the past 11 seasons.
  • So Gibson is likely to score less, even if his workload increases.
  • Good news: His O-line fared well in the run game in 2020. Washington ranked 16th in Football Outsiders’ adjusted line yards and 10th in PFF run-blocking grade. The team has attempted to shore up its OT spots by signing Charles Leno in free agency and drafting Samuel Cosmi in Round 2. We’ll see who settles in at which position.
  • Gibson left Week 13 early with turf toe, which cost him the next 2 games and limited his snaps in Week 16. He admitted in OTAs that the injury still bugged him, though he said it wasn’t limiting what he could do. This situation will bear watching through the summer.

Draft Sharks Bottom Line:

Expect some TD regression from Gibson in Year 2, but that doesn’t necessarily mean we should expect a drop in fantasy performance. He’s the clear leader in a backfield that lacks depth. A significant part of J.D. McKissic’s 2nd-half target boost came via increased snaps at WR spots. Outside of the turf toe that cost him 2 late-season games and portions of 2 others, Gibson saw no downturn in playing time. So his fortune and McKissic’s likely aren’t tethered as much as the typical backfleld duo.

Gibson heads into just his 2nd year as a true RB and brings more extensive receiving experience at the college and high school levels than many other backs. It sure seems fair to expect him to improve. We’ll see whether Washington’s offense holds Gibson back, but the imports of QB Ryan Fitzpatrick, WR Curtis Samuel and rookie WR Dyami Brown upgrade the surrounding talent vs. last year. Gibson belongs in the mix of RBs at the 2-3 turn.

Recent Shark Bites View All Shark Bites »

Washington RB Antonio Gibson is questionable to return to Sunday's game vs. the Chiefs with a shin injury. Gibson, of course, has been playing through a stress fracture in that shin. We'll update his status when we know more.

Update: Gibson returned.

View all Antonio Gibson Shark Bites »

Washington RB Antonio Gibson (shin) is active for today’s game vs. the Chiefs. He handled 20 carries and 2 targets last week, despite playing through that stress fracture in his shin. Gibson is an upside fantasy play vs. Kansas City’s porous run defense.

View all Antonio Gibson Shark Bites »

ESPN's Adam Schefter confirms that Washington RB Antonio Gibson (shin) is expected to play vs. the Chiefs today. Gibson remained limited in practice this week and is listed as questionable with that stress fracture in his shin. It's certainly a concern going forward -- but Gibson is an upside fantasy starter in today's likely shootout.

View all Antonio Gibson Shark Bites »

Washington RB Antonio Gibson (shin) is listed as questionable for Sunday's game vs. the Chiefs. He remained limited in practice this week as he battles that stress fracture in his shin, but Gibson is fully expected to play this weekend. He might even take on an expanded role with all of Washington's WR injuries.

View all Antonio Gibson Shark Bites »

Washington RB Antonio Gibson (shin) did not practice on Wednesday. Expect him to miss or be limited in a bunch of practices the rest of the season as he battles that stress fracture in his shin. As far as we know, he's fully expected to play vs. the Chiefs on Sunday.

View all Antonio Gibson Shark Bites »

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