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Chris Carson - Fantasy Points Outlook

Basic Stats Basic Stats

Chris Carson
SEA

RB SEA

#14 Running Back

200 Projected Points

ADP: 3.9
Bye: 9
Experience: 4 Yr(s)
Age: 26
Height: 6'0"
Weight: 218
40 Time: 4.58

2021 Projections & Outlook

Scoring

#14 Running Back

200 Projected Points

ADP Rush Atts Rush Yds Rush TDs 100 Fum Rec Rec Yds Rec TDs
3.9 240 1064 8 2 2 44 340 2

3D Projections DS 3D Projections

3d Projection

High Floor

144

DS Projection

200

Consensus

38 other sites
183

Med Ceiling

240

Ceiling Likelihood

Medium
How likely they will reach their ceiling projection

Basic Stats Preseason Player Analysis

What You Need to Know:

  • Carson has played 50+% of Seattle’s offensive snaps in 29 games over the past 3 seasons. In those games, he’s averaged …
    • 18.9 carries
    • 86.1 rushing yards
    • .62 rushing TDs
    • 3.2 targets
    • 2.6 catches
    • 18.6 receiving yards
    • .14 TDs
  • Carson posted 100+ total yards in 17 of those 29 games. He hit pay dirt at least once in 18 of 29.
  • Carson’s scoring averages in those games would have ranked 8th among RBs in PPR points and 7th in non-PPR last year.
  • Carson’s ranks in Elusive Rating and Pro Football Focus’ rushing grades over the last 3 years:
    • 2018 - 10th and 11th among 47 qualifiers
    • 2019 - 4th and 6th among 45 qualifiers
    • 2020 - 23rd and 28th among 47 qualifiers
  • Injuries have been a major problem for Carson.
    • He landed on IR as a rookie in 2017 after breaking his ankle in Week 4.
    • He missed 2 games in 2018 with a lingering hip injury.
    • He fractured his hip in Week 16 of the 2019 campaign.
    • He missed 4 games last year with a mid-foot sprain.
  • Carson tested the free-agent market this offseason but ultimately re-signed with the Seahawks on a 2-year, $10.4 million deal with $5.5 million guaranteed. The contract makes him the league’s 14th-highest-paid RB in terms of average annual salary and says that Carson is returning as lead back.
  • 2018 1st-round RB Rashaad Penny also returns for this season. He’s struggled with injuries, including a torn ACL in December 2019. He missed the first 13 games of last season as he continued to rehab that injury. Penny carried 11 times for 34 yards in the final 3 regular-season games and then missed Seattle’s playoff loss with more knee trouble.
  • The Seahawks canned OC Brian Schottenheimer this offseason and replaced him with Shane Waldron.
    • Waldron’s only OC experience came at Buckingham Browne & Nichols High School in 2011.
    • He spent the past 4 seasons as passing-game coordinator/QBs coach for the Rams under Sean McVay.
    • He also worked under Bill Belichick in New England in 2008 and 2009.
  • The Seahawks swung a trade in March for G Gabe Jackson. He’s ranked just 44th at his position in Pro Football Focus’ run-blocking grades the past 2 years but finished 11th in 2018.
  • Seattle’s offensive line still looks like a liability after ranking 30th in PFF’s run-blocking grades last year. It is worth noting, however, that the unit finished 10th in Football Outsiders’ adjusted line yards.

Draft Sharks Bottom Line:

Injuries have dogged Carson throughout his first 4 NFL seasons. It’s probably wise to expect him to miss time in 2021.

But he’s also produced as a RB1 in fantasy when he’s been healthy over the past 3 seasons. Carson will be operating in a new offense this year and could lose a bit of work to Rashaad Penny (if he can stay healthy). But we like Carson to produce as a borderline RB1 when he’s on the field.

 

Recent Shark Bites View All Shark Bites »

The Seahawks re-signed RB Chris Carson to a 2-year deal worth "up to" $14.6 million, NFL Network's Tom Pelissero reports. We'll see how much guaranteed money Carson is getting, but it's a contract that clearly says he's returning as the starter. The 26-year-old has averaged 16.2 carries and 2.9 targets per game over the last 3 seasons and figures to be looking at similar volume in 2021. Carson's return crushes RB Rashaad Penny's fantasy value.

View all Chris Carson Shark Bites »

Seahawks HC Pete Carroll said after Sunday's loss to the Giants that RB Chris Carson's foot injury still isn't fully healed. "He's making it to the game is what he's doing it right now," Carroll said. "His foot is still sore but he can play, so you can see, he looked good, but it's just not 100 percent and so we're trying to not overload him." Carson played 58% of Seattle's offensive snaps and handled 13 carries with 6 targets vs. New York. That's a solid workload -- but it sounds like it might not grow much from there. "He's not to the point where we can just let him stay out there and keep on going and let's run him 25-30 times and see what happens, so we're still trying to bring him along," Carroll said.

View all Chris Carson Shark Bites »

Seahawks RB Chris Carson (foot) isn't listed on the final Week 12 injury report. He put in a full practice on Saturday and should return as Seattle's lead back on Monday night vs. the Eagles. Consider him a RB2 with upside in a difficult individual matchup vs. Philly's 11th-ranked RB defense -- but in a game that should be high-scoring.

View all Chris Carson Shark Bites »

Seahawks RB Chris Carson (foot) has put in limited practices on Thursday and Friday. HC Pete Carroll has said that he expects Carson back for Monday night’s game against the Eagles, but we’ll see what he does on Saturday and how he’s listed on the final injury report.

View all Chris Carson Shark Bites »

Seahawks RBs Chris Carson (foot) and Travis Homer (hand) are inactive for tonight's game against the Cardinals. Seattle elevated RB Bo Scarbrough, rather than RB Alex Collins, from the practice squad. So it'll be Scarbrough, Carlos Hyde and DeeJay Dallas in the backfield. We're expecting Hyde to lead the way in carries with Dallas handling most of the pass-catching work.

View all Chris Carson Shark Bites »

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