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Chris Carson - Fantasy Points Outlook

Basic Stats Basic Stats

Chris Carson


#14 Running Back

200 Projected Points

ADP: Not Available
Bye: 9
Experience: 4 Yr(s)
Age: 27
Height: 6'0"
Weight: 218
40 Time: 4.58

Weekly Outlook

Week 20 Projections

This player does not have a weekly prediction

Rest Of Way Outlook

Week 4
Carson never got on track in this game. With the Seahawks leading from the 2nd quarter on, he was in position to have a strong game, but he ran for less than 2.5 yards per carry and ceded touches to Alex Collins. Not only was Collins more successful as a runner, going over 4 yards per carry with a TD, he caught both of his targets and completely dominated Carson on the stat sheet. Although he started the game, Carson played just 45% of the snaps, which was the 2nd game in a row he was below 50%.

Although reports out of Seattle are saying the Alex Collins is not expected to cut into Carson’s expected workload, the fact that Carson went from playing 78% and 63% of the snaps in the first 2 games to 43% and 45% in the last 2 seems telling, especially since each of those games were in mostly neutral game script. That said, he’s scored 3 times over the last 2 games, so his fantasy value is still solid. But he’s posted fewer than 32 yards in 2 of the last 3 games, so if he doesn’t score, he has clear downside.
Week 2
With the injury to Rashaad Penny, Carson continues to operate as a workhorse. In Week 2, Carson received 13 of 14 rush attempts. The production wasn’t pretty, as he only generated 31 yards, but he saved his day with 2 TDs. Something we will need to monitor moving forward is Carson’s pass game usage. In week 2 he failed to register a target, ceding some pass game work to Travis Homer. Carson did lead the team in RB routes 17 to 12, but Homer saw 2 targets to 0 for Carson.
Heading into Week 3 Carson has a winnable matchup on the ground as the Viking are in the middle of pack vs. the run while allowing the 16th most points to RBs. This puts Carson right back on the RB2 map for this week.
Week 1
The loss of Carlos Hyde and the lack of experienced depth behind Carson was on display in Week 1. After Rashaad Penny went down, Carson became a workhorse, receiving 19 of the 23 RB touches. Last year, Hyde was consistently a threat for touches, seeing multiple game of 10+. In 2021 that doesn’t seem to be the case now that Penny is out due to injury. Last week neither Penny or DeeJay Dallas saw more than 2 touches in the game. More encouraging was that Carson dominated pass game work, getting all but 1 of the RB targets last week.
Heading into Week 2, the Seahawks will square off vs. the Titans, who just allowed 116 rushing yards to the Cardinals last week. This matchup along with his elite usage should make Carson a borderline RB1 this week.

Basic Stats Preseason Player Analysis

What You Need to Know:

  • Carson has played 50+% of Seattle’s offensive snaps in 29 games over the past 3 seasons. In those games, he’s averaged …
    • 18.9 carries
    • 86.1 rushing yards
    • .62 rushing TDs
    • 3.2 targets
    • 2.6 catches
    • 18.6 receiving yards
    • .14 TDs
  • Carson posted 100+ total yards in 17 of those 29 games. He hit pay dirt at least once in 18 of 29.
  • Carson’s scoring averages in those games would have ranked 8th among RBs in PPR points and 7th in non-PPR last year.
  • Carson’s ranks in Elusive Rating and Pro Football Focus’ rushing grades over the last 3 years:
    • 2018 - 10th and 11th among 47 qualifiers
    • 2019 - 4th and 6th among 45 qualifiers
    • 2020 - 23rd and 28th among 47 qualifiers
  • Injuries have been a major problem for Carson.
    • He landed on IR as a rookie in 2017 after breaking his ankle in Week 4.
    • He missed 2 games in 2018 with a lingering hip injury.
    • He fractured his hip in Week 16 of the 2019 campaign.
    • He missed 4 games last year with a mid-foot sprain.
  • Carson tested the free-agent market this offseason but ultimately re-signed with the Seahawks on a 2-year, $10.4 million deal with $5.5 million guaranteed. The contract makes him the league’s 14th-highest-paid RB in terms of average annual salary and says that Carson is returning as lead back.
  • 2018 1st-round RB Rashaad Penny also returns for this season. He’s struggled with injuries, including a torn ACL in December 2019. He missed the first 13 games of last season as he continued to rehab that injury. Penny carried 11 times for 34 yards in the final 3 regular-season games and then missed Seattle’s playoff loss with more knee trouble.
  • The Seahawks canned OC Brian Schottenheimer this offseason and replaced him with Shane Waldron.
    • Waldron’s only OC experience came at Buckingham Browne & Nichols High School in 2011.
    • He spent the past 4 seasons as passing-game coordinator/QBs coach for the Rams under Sean McVay.
    • He also worked under Bill Belichick in New England in 2008 and 2009.
  • The Seahawks swung a trade in March for G Gabe Jackson. He’s ranked just 44th at his position in Pro Football Focus’ run-blocking grades the past 2 years but finished 11th in 2018.
  • Seattle’s offensive line still looks like a liability after ranking 30th in PFF’s run-blocking grades last year. It is worth noting, however, that the unit finished 10th in Football Outsiders’ adjusted line yards.

Draft Sharks Bottom Line:

Injuries have dogged Carson throughout his first 4 NFL seasons. It’s probably wise to expect him to miss time in 2021.

But he’s also produced as a RB1 in fantasy when he’s been healthy over the past 3 seasons. Carson will be operating in a new offense this year and could lose a bit of work to Rashaad Penny (if he can stay healthy). But we like Carson to produce as a borderline RB1 when he’s on the field.

Recent Shark Bites View All Shark Bites »

Seahawks HC Pete Carroll said Monday that he expects RB Chris Carson to be ready for the start of training camp. Carson underwent cervical-fusion neck surgery in November to attempt to alleviate his long-term discomfort. We'll keep an eye on his rehab. Carson will turn 28 a few days after the 2022 season kicks off and is set to count $6.4 million against the cap this year.

View all Chris Carson Shark Bites »

Seahawks RB Chris Carson will undergo cervical-fusion neck surgery, HC Pete Carroll said. “So that’s a surgery that can get him back somewhere late in the spring, is what I’ve heard," Carroll added. The team believes this surgery will solve the long-term neck discomfort that Carson has dealt with, according to insider Gregg Bell. Bell, though, cites a 2016 study that found that only two-thirds of NFL players who had this surgery returned to play. The average timeline for return was 9 months, which would put Carson back on the field in August. We'll monitor his rehab this offseason.

View all Chris Carson Shark Bites »

Seahawks RB Chris Carson is expected to have season-ending neck surgery, according to NFL Network's Ian Rapoport. That's no real surprise given the progression of his season so far. It leaves Alex Collins as the primary ball-carrier. He's been dealing with a groin injury but carries no game status into the weekend. Travis Homer claimed the backfield pass-catching lead at Green Bay in Week 10 but had only totaled 3 targets over his previous 4 games.

View all Chris Carson Shark Bites »

Seahawks RB Chris Carson (neck) did not practice on Wednesday. “What I would say is that we didn’t make the positive progress that we had hoped," HC Pete Carroll said. "We are still working with it. I don’t have a good update, so if you don’t mind, you have to wait a couple of days and we will have more. He didn’t make the positive progress forward that we wanted, so we just have to wait.” Carson seems like a long shot to play vs. the Cardinals this weekend. And we wouldn't be surprised if Seattle chose to shut him down for the season.

View all Chris Carson Shark Bites »

Seahawks RB Chris Carson (neck) won't play vs. the Packers on Sunday, HC Pete Carroll said. Carson returned to practice this week but hasn't been cleared to play by doctors. If and when he'll get that clearance is uncertain. Alex Collins should continue to operate as Seattle's lead back this weekend, but Rashaad Penny, Travis Homer and DeeJay Dallas all mixed in last time we saw the Seahawks.

View all Chris Carson Shark Bites »

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