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Chris Carson - Fantasy Points Outlook

Basic Stats Basic Stats

Chris Carson
SEA

RB SEA

#14 Running Back

200 Projected Points

ADP: 3.4
Bye: 9
Experience: 4 Yr(s)
Age: 27
Height: 6'0"
Weight: 218
40 Time: 4.58

Weekly Outlook

3d Projection

Low Floor

7.4

DS Projection

12.1

Consensus

38 other sites
13

Low Ceiling

15.7

Rest of
Season

12.8

Week 3 Projections
Rush Yds Rush TDs Rec Rec Yds Rec TDs Fantasy Pts
70 0.6 2 15 0 12.1
Weekly Writeup
Carson carried just 13 times in the OT loss last week, but that still constituted 92.9% of Seattle's total RB rushes for the game. Expect the Seahawks to get it to him more this week.

Rest Of Way Outlook

Rush Yds Rush TDs Rec Rec Yds Rec TDs Fantasy Pts
67 0.6 2.5 19 0.1 12.8
Week 2
With the injury to Rashaad Penny, Carson continues to operate as a workhorse. In Week 2, Carson received 13 of 14 rush attempts. The production wasn’t pretty, as he only generated 31 yards, but he saved his day with 2 TDs. Something we will need to monitor moving forward is Carson’s pass game usage. In week 2 he failed to register a target, ceding some pass game work to Travis Homer. Carson did lead the team in RB routes 17 to 12, but Homer saw 2 targets to 0 for Carson.
Heading into Week 3 Carson has a winnable matchup on the ground as the Viking are in the middle of pack vs. the run while allowing the 16th most points to RBs. This puts Carson right back on the RB2 map for this week.
Week 1
The loss of Carlos Hyde and the lack of experienced depth behind Carson was on display in Week 1. After Rashaad Penny went down, Carson became a workhorse, receiving 19 of the 23 RB touches. Last year, Hyde was consistently a threat for touches, seeing multiple game of 10+. In 2021 that doesn’t seem to be the case now that Penny is out due to injury. Last week neither Penny or DeeJay Dallas saw more than 2 touches in the game. More encouraging was that Carson dominated pass game work, getting all but 1 of the RB targets last week.
Heading into Week 2, the Seahawks will square off vs. the Titans, who just allowed 116 rushing yards to the Cardinals last week. This matchup along with his elite usage should make Carson a borderline RB1 this week.

Basic Stats Preseason Player Analysis

What You Need to Know:

  • Carson has played 50+% of Seattle’s offensive snaps in 29 games over the past 3 seasons. In those games, he’s averaged …
    • 18.9 carries
    • 86.1 rushing yards
    • .62 rushing TDs
    • 3.2 targets
    • 2.6 catches
    • 18.6 receiving yards
    • .14 TDs
  • Carson posted 100+ total yards in 17 of those 29 games. He hit pay dirt at least once in 18 of 29.
  • Carson’s scoring averages in those games would have ranked 8th among RBs in PPR points and 7th in non-PPR last year.
  • Carson’s ranks in Elusive Rating and Pro Football Focus’ rushing grades over the last 3 years:
    • 2018 - 10th and 11th among 47 qualifiers
    • 2019 - 4th and 6th among 45 qualifiers
    • 2020 - 23rd and 28th among 47 qualifiers
  • Injuries have been a major problem for Carson.
    • He landed on IR as a rookie in 2017 after breaking his ankle in Week 4.
    • He missed 2 games in 2018 with a lingering hip injury.
    • He fractured his hip in Week 16 of the 2019 campaign.
    • He missed 4 games last year with a mid-foot sprain.
  • Carson tested the free-agent market this offseason but ultimately re-signed with the Seahawks on a 2-year, $10.4 million deal with $5.5 million guaranteed. The contract makes him the league’s 14th-highest-paid RB in terms of average annual salary and says that Carson is returning as lead back.
  • 2018 1st-round RB Rashaad Penny also returns for this season. He’s struggled with injuries, including a torn ACL in December 2019. He missed the first 13 games of last season as he continued to rehab that injury. Penny carried 11 times for 34 yards in the final 3 regular-season games and then missed Seattle’s playoff loss with more knee trouble.
  • The Seahawks canned OC Brian Schottenheimer this offseason and replaced him with Shane Waldron.
    • Waldron’s only OC experience came at Buckingham Browne & Nichols High School in 2011.
    • He spent the past 4 seasons as passing-game coordinator/QBs coach for the Rams under Sean McVay.
    • He also worked under Bill Belichick in New England in 2008 and 2009.
  • The Seahawks swung a trade in March for G Gabe Jackson. He’s ranked just 44th at his position in Pro Football Focus’ run-blocking grades the past 2 years but finished 11th in 2018.
  • Seattle’s offensive line still looks like a liability after ranking 30th in PFF’s run-blocking grades last year. It is worth noting, however, that the unit finished 10th in Football Outsiders’ adjusted line yards.

Draft Sharks Bottom Line:

Injuries have dogged Carson throughout his first 4 NFL seasons. It’s probably wise to expect him to miss time in 2021.

But he’s also produced as a RB1 in fantasy when he’s been healthy over the past 3 seasons. Carson will be operating in a new offense this year and could lose a bit of work to Rashaad Penny (if he can stay healthy). But we like Carson to produce as a borderline RB1 when he’s on the field.

Recent Shark Bites View All Shark Bites »

The Seahawks will "roll with" RB Chris Carson this season, RBs coach Chad Morton said. "That's how it goes." It sure doesn't sound like Seattle plans on deploying a committee backfield this season with depth guys like Rashaad Penny, DeeJay Dallas and Travis Homer. Injuries, of course, have been a bugaboo for Carson. But he's averaged over 100 total yards and .76 TDs in healthy games over the last 3 seasons. That's RB1 production. Carson is worth considering in the back half of Round 3 -- and is a steal in the 4th round of fantasy drafts.

View all Chris Carson Shark Bites »

The Seahawks re-signed RB Chris Carson to a 2-year deal worth "up to" $14.6 million, NFL Network's Tom Pelissero reports. We'll see how much guaranteed money Carson is getting, but it's a contract that clearly says he's returning as the starter. The 26-year-old has averaged 16.2 carries and 2.9 targets per game over the last 3 seasons and figures to be looking at similar volume in 2021. Carson's return crushes RB Rashaad Penny's fantasy value.

View all Chris Carson Shark Bites »

Seahawks HC Pete Carroll said after Sunday's loss to the Giants that RB Chris Carson's foot injury still isn't fully healed. "He's making it to the game is what he's doing it right now," Carroll said. "His foot is still sore but he can play, so you can see, he looked good, but it's just not 100 percent and so we're trying to not overload him." Carson played 58% of Seattle's offensive snaps and handled 13 carries with 6 targets vs. New York. That's a solid workload -- but it sounds like it might not grow much from there. "He's not to the point where we can just let him stay out there and keep on going and let's run him 25-30 times and see what happens, so we're still trying to bring him along," Carroll said.

View all Chris Carson Shark Bites »

Seahawks RB Chris Carson (foot) isn't listed on the final Week 12 injury report. He put in a full practice on Saturday and should return as Seattle's lead back on Monday night vs. the Eagles. Consider him a RB2 with upside in a difficult individual matchup vs. Philly's 11th-ranked RB defense -- but in a game that should be high-scoring.

View all Chris Carson Shark Bites »

Seahawks RB Chris Carson (foot) has put in limited practices on Thursday and Friday. HC Pete Carroll has said that he expects Carson back for Monday night’s game against the Eagles, but we’ll see what he does on Saturday and how he’s listed on the final injury report.

View all Chris Carson Shark Bites »

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