Chris Godwin - Fantasy Points Outlook

Bottom Line

Godwin took a backseat to Mike Evans and Rachaad White last season, but he still was a solid WR3.

He enters a contract year in another new offense and should be a better fit in the new passing attack.

He is often falling into WR4 territory in drafts, but we are much higher on him as a low-end WR2/high-end WR3 this season.

What We Learned Last Year

• Godwin posted a season-long stat line of 83 catches for 1,024 yards and two TDs on 130 targets.
• His per-game numbers were a step down from his career averages:
  • 7.65 targets (7.25)
  • 4.88 receptions (5.09)
  • 60.2 yards (64.3)
  • 0.12 TDs (0.33)
• Godwin ranked as the WR29 in PPR fantasy points and WR37 in points per game.
• He missed no games due to injury for the first time since 2018.
• Godwin had only one top-12 finish. He had eight WR37 or worse finishes.
• His target share (23.8%) was the highest of his career.
• Among 89 WRs with 45+ targets, Godwin ranked:
  • 26th in Pro Football Focus receiving grade
  • 35th in yards per route run (2.33)
  • 63rd in average target depth (10.3)
  • 35th in percentage of team air yards (25.6%)

What to Expect in 2024

• Godwin enters his third season under HC Todd Bowles
• New OC Liam Coen spent last year as the Kentucky OC after coordinating the Rams in 2022.
  • In 2022, the Rams ranked 24th with 531 pass attempts.
• The Buccaneers are expected to take a slight step backward. They are tied for second in the NFC South with a 7.5 win total at most sportsbooks.
• The Buccaneers have the 21st-highest odds to win the Super Bowl at +5500 on most sportsbooks, second-best in the division.
• Godwin enters his eighth season at 28 years old. According to our aging curve research, the average WR with Godwin’s career produces at 96% of peak value at age-28.
• Godwin is a strong candidate for positive TD regression this season. He ranked 27th among WRs with 6.2 expected receiving TDs but just 73rd with two actual TDs.