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Chris Godwin - Fantasy Points Outlook

Basic StatsChris Godwin's Basic Stats

Chris Godwin
ADP: 4.10
Bye: 11
Experience: 5 Yr(s)
Age: 26.3
Height: 6'1"
Weight: 209
40 Time: 4.42
Speed Score: 109.50
SPARQx (Rank): 128.30 (96%)
Burst Score (Rank): 124.20 (67%)
Agility Score (Rank): 11.01 (75%)
Catch Radius (Rank): 10.21 (80%)

Chris Godwin's 2022 Projections & Outlook

Scoring

#26 Wide Receiver

121.1 Projected Points

ADP Rec Rec Yds Rec TDs 100 Fum
4.10 74.3 853.3 6.2 2.1 0.7

3D Projections DS 3D Projections

Basic StatsChris Godwin's Preseason Player Analysis

View WR Fantasy Rankings »

What You Need to Know:

  • In 13 healthy games last season, Godwin drew 21.3% target share, leading Mike Evans by more than 3.5 percentage points.
  • Godwin posted his shortest average depth of target by a wide margin last season. Through 5 years, that number has gone …
    • 13.2
    • 12.8
    • 10.3
    • 10.5
    • 7.6
  • The shift has coincided with a slot rate that has risen annually. Here are the percentage of pass snaps he has spent in the slot each year (according to Pro Football Focus):
    • 19.3%
    • 27.5%
    • 63.4%
    • 65.7%
    • 70.4%
  • Godwin has finished the past 3 seasons 2nd, 15th and 8th among WRs in PPR points per game.
  • Tom Brady has led the NFL in pass attempts from inside the 10-yard line each of the past 2 years, according to Pro Football Reference. PFF had him 2nd and 3rd in total end-zone throws. Godwin, however, has tied for just 65th and then 51st in end-zone targets.
  • When Godwin, Evans and Antonio Brown were all on the field in 2020, the target distribution went: Evans 19.5%, Godwin 18.9%, Brown 15.7%.
  • The Bucs signed Russell Gage for $30 million over 3 years in free agency, with $20 million of that guaranteed. Gage played 67% of his pass snaps in the slot across 2019-20. That rate dipped to 49.6% last season, when Atlanta traded Julio Jones and then lost Calvin Ridley for half the year.
  • Godwin tore the ACL and MCL in his right knee in Week 15. He had surgery Jan. 3.
  • This study found that among 29 NFL WRs who tore ACLs from 1988 through 2017, players generally decreased career production and per-game production after ACL tears.
  • A look at high-level WRs who have suffered ACL tears since 2015 finds a mix of post-injury production. Jordy Nelson (2015 injury year), Kelvin Benjamin (2015), Keenan Allen (2016), Cooper Kupp (2018) and Courtland Sutton (2020) each played every game the season after his knee injury. The 9-player sample split on whether yards per catch and yards per target dipped, stayed the same or rose post-injury. The takeaway: There’s no clear signal on what to expect post-injury for Godwin.
  • None of those 9 WRs suffered his injury later than Week 10. Six of the 9 hurt the knee in Week 1 or camp/preseason.


Draft Sharks Bottom Line:

We’ll go ahead and reveal that Godwin has been a point of contention for us setting projections this year, and it’s easy to understand why approaches would differ. At full strength, Godwin has produced WR1 numbers over the past 3 seasons. He’s clearly well short of full strength right now, though, and none of us can know yet how close he’ll be come Week 1 – or how Godwin will progress in that area through the season. If he’s anything close to normal Chris Godwin from October on, the WR could be a steal at his current high-WR3 ADP. Considering he won’t be 1 year past the injury until Dec. 19, though, there’s also a chance he’s not close to full Godwin at any point this year. How much you want to bet on the “if” will be more personal preference than projection … at least until we get closer to the season.

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Recent Shark Bites View All Shark Bites »

Chris Godwin, WR TB

3:33pm EDT 6/22/22

Godwin a PUP candidate

The Athletic's Greg Auman confirms that Bucs WR Chris Godwin is a candidate to open the season on the PUP list. That's not a surprise considering Godwin is working his way back from a mid-December ACL tear. "There have been encouraging reports on Godwin’s progress, but the Bucs have made a big investment in him long-term, so the priority will be getting him back to his old self rather than getting him back right away," Auman writes. Note that new NFL rules require a player placed on the PUP list to miss a minimum of 4 games, rather than the previous 6-game minimum. We're tentatively projecting Godwin to make his 2022 debut sometime in October.

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The Buccaneers and WR Chris Godwin have reached agreement on a 3-year, $60 million deal that includes $40 million in guarantees, according to multiple reports. Godwin had received the franchise tag, so we knew he wasn't going anywhere. This locks him in for the next 3 seasons and sets him up to hit the open market ahead of his age-29 campaign.

View all Chris Godwin Shark Bites »

The Bucs have officially used their franchise tag on WR Chris Godwin. It's his 2nd straight year getting tagged, so he's currently set to make a little over $19 million this season. The 2 sides are reportedly working toward a long-term deal, though, which would presumably lower Godwin's cap hit. The 26-year-old has finished top 15 among WRs in PPR points per game in 3 straight seasons. But he sits much lower than that in our early 2022 rankings because of his December ACL tear and Tampa's QB question.

View all Chris Godwin Shark Bites »

ESPN’s Dianna Russini reports that the Buccaneers are working on a long-term deal with WR Chris Godwin. She adds that if the 2 sides don’t reach agreement by today’s 4 p.m. franchise-tag deadline, the team is expected to tag the WR. For fantasy football purposes, you should expect Godwin to remain with Tampa Bay for the foreseeable future. His end-of-season ACL tear, of course, challenges his 2022 outlook

View all Chris Godwin Shark Bites »

Beat writer Greg Auman of The Athletic believes the Bucs have a “good chance” of retaining WR Chris Godwin. Auman doesn’t see the franchise tag as a viable path — Tampa Bay did that last year. He also doesn’t believe Godwin’s late-season ACL tear altered the team’s “long-term optimism of him playing at a very high level.” Regardless of where he plays, the 26-year-old should be considered questionable for the start of next season.

View all Chris Godwin Shark Bites »

Dynasty Overview View WR Dynasty Rankings »

Chris Godwin, WR TB
Dynasty MVP 102.3
Position Rank #50 WR
3yr Projection
5yr Projection
10yr Projection
338
554
835
Dynasty Write-up
The ACL tear adds a complication for Godwin. But he'll still be just 26 when the 2022 season begins and has topped 85 catches and 1,100 yards in 2 of the past 3 years. It's also worth noting that he has lost 2+ games to injury in 3 straight years, and his efficiency will almost certainly come down post-Tom Brady. Godwin cracked 77% for his catch rate in each of 2 years with the all-time QB. He was at (a still-good) 66.1% over his 1st 3 seasons. Brady, at least, will be back for 2022.
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