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Chris Godwin - Fantasy Points Outlook

Basic StatsChris Godwin's Basic Stats

Chris Godwin
ADP: 7.5
Bye: 5
Experience: 6 Yr(s)
Age: 27.5
Height: 6'1"
Weight: 208
40 Time: 4.42
Speed Score: 109.50
SPARQx (Rank): 128.30 (96%)
Burst Score (Rank): 124.20 (67%)
Agility Score (Rank): 11.01 (75%)
Catch Radius (Rank): 10.21 (80%)

Chris Godwin's Weekly Outlook

Week 3 Projections
Rec Rec Yds Rec TDs Fantasy Pts
5.5 61 0.4 8.5
Weekly Writeup

Rest Of Way Outlook

Rec Rec Yds Rec TDs Fantasy Pts
5.1 62.2 0.4 8.6

Chris Godwin's 2023 Projections & Outlook

Scoring

#33 Wide Receiver

129.6 Projected Points

ADP Rec Rec Yds Rec TDs 100 Fum
7.5 76.2 972.3 5.4 2.4 0

3D Projections DS 3D Projections

Basic StatsChris Godwin's Preseason Player Analysis

View WR Fantasy Rankings »
Bottom Line

Godwin is good, but high passing volume throughout his six seasons with the Bucs has certainly helped his numbers.

We’re betting that volume drops this year – quite possibly by a lot.

Godwin will need to counter that by rebounding his target share (31st or lower among WRs each of the past three years). And he’ll need to keep up his per-target efficiency to truly help your fantasy team.

An ADP on the WR2-3 border makes Godwin fine to take shots on. But the new issues with his offense keep him from being a terrific value.

What We Learned Last Year
  • Godwin can help your fantasy team even at less than full strength.
  • Coming off a Dec. 19 ACL tear, Godwin made it back for Week 1. A hamstring injury knocked him out of that contest, though, and cost him the next two weeks.
  • Godwin didn’t miss another game after that return. He finished the year with career lows in yards per catch (9.8), yards per target (7.2), and yards per route (1.73).
  • His average depth of target also came in way shorter than usual. The 5.7-yard ADOT marked a 25% fall from Godwin’s 7.6 in 2021 (according to Pro Football Focus’ numbers). That 2021 number marked a 26% dip from his previous low.
  • Godwin’s yards after catch per reception also declined 0.9 vs. 2021. His 5.1 in that category fell in line with his career 5.4 average. But catching shorter passes vs. earlier in his career should mean more running after the catch. So consider that another limitation of the knee repair.
  • Godwin ranked eighth among WRs in targets per game but just 34th in target share (adjusted for games missed).
What to Expect in 2023
  • That last stat is the biggest reason to worry about Godwin this season. He’s good enough to deliver fantasy points even with iffy QB play. But the volume could be a lot different than what we’re used to.
  • The Buccaneers led the league in pass attempts each of the past two seasons. They ranked sixth in 2020, fourth in 2019 and 2018, and third in 2017 (Godwin’s rookie year).
  • This has been a high-volume, pass-happy offense ever since Godwin arrived. Will that remain so in 2023?
  • New OC Dave Canales is expected to have an “added emphasis on establishing the run.” Canales said in the spring, “The marriage of the run and pass, that is our identity.” He was specifically referring to not giving away what’s coming with the formation. But Tampa will obviously need to run at a rate much higher than league-low if it wants to keep the defense guessing about what’s coming.
  • Godwin also finished 31st among WRs in target share in 2021 and 44th in 2020. He ranked 18th back in his 2019 breakout campaign, even with Mike Evans at 13th.
  • Godwin has topped 71% in catch rate four straight years, starting with Jameis Winston’s final Bucs season. He also posted better TD rates in 2018, 2019, and 2020 than the past two years.
  • Godwin will need to see his target share rebound and/or keep up the efficiency (and perhaps add TDs) to approach his points per game of the past four years.

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Mike Evans, WR TB

5:10pm EDT 9/17/23

Mike Evans has big day to lead Bucs

Buccaneers WR Mike Evans racked up 171 yards and caught the team's lone TD pass in Sunday's win over the Bears. Evans tied WR Chris Godwin for the target lead with eight, catching six of those. Godwin posted a 5-58 receiving line. TE Cade Otton added 6 receptions for 41 yards on 6 targets. The Bucs host Philly in Week 3, an opponent they're likely to trail and a defense with multiple injuries across the starting secondary. Expect Evans and Godwin to land well inside starter territory in our Week 3 rankings.

View all Mike Evans Shark Bites »

ESPN's Jeremy Fowler confirms that Bucs WR Russell Gage will miss the entire 2023 season with the knee injury he suffered in Wednesday's practice. Gage was locked into Tampa's No. 3 WR job before this injury. The Bucs are now left with WRs Trey Palmer, Deven Thompkins, David Moore, and Rakim Jarrett to battle for that job. Palmer is an intriguing rookie and might be worth a look near the very end of best-ball drafts. Gage's injury should mean extra targets for WR Chris Godwin, WR Mike Evans, RB Rachaad White, and TE Cade Otton. We've adjusted all the Bucs in the 2023 fantasy football rankings.

Update: Gage suffered a ruptured right patellar tendon.

View all Russell Gage Shark Bites »

Buccaneers WR Chris Godwin looks like a value by ADP right now, especially at his WR29 price on Underdog Fantasy. He does sit higher than that in our fantasy football rankings. But he has some issues to overcome. Godwin rebounded from his 2021 ACL tear to finish 18th in PPR points per game at the position last year. That followed a No. 8 finish. But he -- and the rest of the Bucs receivers -- benefited from huge passing volume with Tom Brady. Tampa Bay led the league in pass attempts each of the past two seasons and has ranked among the league leaders throughout Godwin's six seasons. That volume figures to come down with Baker Mayfield or Kyle Trask replacing Brady. Godwin finished each of the past three years ranked 31st or worse in target share among WRs. If that doesn't rebound, he'd feel a volume drop even more. Godwin is also coming off career lows in yards per catch (9.8), yards per target (7.2), and yards per route (1.73). That's no surprise, given the December ACL tear that closed 2021. We're betting on some rebound for Godwin on that front. Though the QB switch could also challenge the WR's efficiency. Godwin looks like a decent bet at modest ADP. Just don't treat him like a lock for big 2023 fantasy points.

View all Chris Godwin Shark Bites »

Buccaneers WR Chris Godwin believes he’s nearly back at pre-injury form. Recall that he suffered a torn ACL in December, 2021. "I think I'm very close to it [100%],” Godwin told the Bucs’ official site. "I feel like a lot of my explosion is coming back. I feel very comfortable with the things that I'm working on. It feels really good to be able to have the opportunity to work on my skill development this offseason, as opposed to just working to rehab an injury.” Godwin made it back for Week 1 of last season but later missed time with a hamstring strain. Still, the veteran set a team record with 104 catches. QB concerns add risk, but Godwin’s coming at a fair, WR3 price in early drafts.

View all Chris Godwin Shark Bites »

The Buccaneers have reached a one-year, $8.5 million deal with QB Baker Mayfield, according to multiple reports. NFL Network's Ian Rapoport had previously talked about the Bucs bringing in Mayfield to compete with former second-round pick Kyle Trask for the starting job. We'd bet on Mayfield winning that competition. But the contract shows that they're not banking on him as a starter. Taylor Heinicke, for example, got a two-year contract worth up to $10 million a year from the Falcons. Mayfield played his way out of Carolina after his Cleveland exit. He gained some praise for the brief Rams stint but compiled just 6.6 yards per pass attempt and a 3.1% TD rate there. Mayfield is far from a lock for any meaningful production going forward. But he's interesting as a QB3 pick late in best ball drafts right now, especially when paired with Tampa Bay WRs Chris Godwin, Mike Evans, or Russell Gage. Gage has been going especially late. So you can potentially pair him with Mayfield using just your final two picks. Not much risk at that point.

View all Baker Mayfield Shark Bites »

Dynasty Overview View WR Dynasty Rankings »

Chris Godwin, WR TB
Dynasty MVP 99.1
Position Rank #35 WR
3yr Projection
5yr Projection
10yr Projection
330
514
844
Dynasty Write-up
Coming off an ACL tear, Godwin remained a high-volume, short-range target for QB Tom Brady. Godwin is under contract for 2 more seasons, although the loss of Brady adds uncertainty to this offense. Baker Mayfield was named the Week 1 starter in August.
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