Dallas Goedert - Fantasy Points Outlook

Basic Stats

TE PHI

#10 Tight End

101 Projected Points

ADP: Not Available

Bye: 14

Experience: 3 Yr(s)

Age: 26

Height: 6'5"

Weight: 256

40 Time: 4.67

Weekly Outlook

Week 6 Projections

This player does not have a weekly prediction

Rest Of Way Outlook

Rec	Rec Yds	Rec TDs	Fantasy Pts
4	48.7	0.4	7.3

Week 5
Goedert delivered another lackluster fantasy performance at Carolina in Week 5. His 3 targets tied for just 5th on the team -- with Quez Watkins and Kenneth Gainwell, the #3 WR and #2 RB, respectively. Zach Ertz doubled Goedert’s target count. That marked the 3rd straight game in which Ertz beat Goedert by 3 targets.

Goedert caught 2 of his 3 looks for 28 yards. But the other was a biggie. Goedert dropped what would have been the go-ahead TD in the 4th quarter. And now he’s on the COVID list, almost definitely to miss Week 6.

If you weren’t able to trade Goedert before now, try to do so the next time he has a nice fantasy outing. In the meantime, pray that Philly trades Ertz away before the deadline.

Week 4
Week 4 finally gave us the kind of game we were hoping for when we drafted Goedert: 5-56-1. That’s why we need to try to get out now.

Goedert has been targeted on slightly less than 11% of Eagles pass attempts through 4 games. Actually, let’s get more specific ...

Goedert has seen a 10.96% target share so far this season.

Last year, when he missed 5 games and left 2 others early, Goedert finished with 10.87% of the full-season target share.

Seventeen other TEs finished last season with larger target shares than what Goedert has drawn so far this year.

Zach Ertz is still around. That hurts. Philly also found a #1 WR in the 1st round of this year’s draft. Jalen Reagor -- the 2020 first-rounder -- is playing a bigger role this time around. Even fellow 2nd-year wideout Quez Watkins has stepped up.

Philly’s QB only exacerbates the issue for Goedert. Hurts’ passing has been OK overall. He’s currently 15th among starting QBs in Pro Football Focus passing grade. But if you break it down by distance, Hurts’ weakest grades for 2020 and so far in 2021 have come in the range where Goedert’s average depth of target sits: “short,” 0-9 yards.

Goedert’s 2 TDs this season have him 8th at the position in PPR scoring, even though he’s tied for just 17th in receptions (with Ertz, among others) and tied for 18th in targets. It’ll take at least an Ertz injury or trade to unlock Goedert as a consistent option. Even then, we’re not sure how high the ceiling goes.

Goedert is worth selling aggressively.

Week 3
Goedert had a big play early in each half, for gains of 38 and 28 yards. Other than that: 0 catches in 2 targets. QB Jalen Hurts found TE Zach Ertz for 4 completions in the 2nd half. Still, Goedert’s 66 yards were the team high.
It’s difficult for the crystal ball to see what will happen to a team that stunk up AT&T Stadium Monday night. Clearly, the Hurts-centric game plan against the Cowboys isn’t likely to be repeated against Kansas City. Or would it be more effective against the Chiefs than vs. Dallas’s energetic young defense. Don’t expect Hurts to wait for Goedert to get open deep. Instead, he and TE Zach Ertz could split catches in a more conservative, move-the-chains offense.

Week 2
Week 2 was part fluke, part warning signal for Goedert owners.

The 4th-year pro managed just 2 targets in Sunday’s loss to the 49ers, the 1st of which didn’t come until about 10 minutes remained in the 4th quarter. Goedert nearly took his 2nd opportunity into the end zone but came down just short of the goal line, setting up Jalen Hurts’ sneak for a TD.

Goedert isn’t likely to draw so few targets often. The Eagles attempted only 24 throws for the game, including 1 by WR Greg Ward on a trick play. But Goedert managed just 4 targets in the opener and looks like he’ll be part of a committee rather than a featured receiver. It’s also worth noting that questions remain about Hurts’ mid-range passing, the primary zone for Goedert’s work.

One particular play might have highlighted this Hurts shortcoming vs. San Francisco. Rolling left, the QB could have hit Goedert for a relatively straightforward conversion on 3rd down. Instead, Hurts opted for the deeper -- and more challenging -- throw to DeVonta Smith down the same sideline. (He failed to complete it.)

We’ll see where things go for Goedert. If Zach Ertz remains on the COVID list through Monday night’s game at Dallas, Godert might see more opportunities. As it stands, we’d see about selling Philly’s lead TE the next time he has a big game.

Week 1
No one’s complaining about the 4-42-1 fantasy line that Goedert posted in Week 1, but the outing did show a limitation.

Goedert’s 5 targets tied for 3rd on the team and made up just 14.3% of Jalen Hurts’ pass attempts. Neither of those is a bad number, but they’re also well short of what we can expect from the top shelf of TEs -- as well as T.J. Hockenson and Kyle Pitts (if we don’t consider them “top shelf”).

Beyond that, we also saw all these TEs beat Goedert in Week 1 target share: Adam Trautman (30%), Tyler Higbee (23.1%), Noah Fant (22.2%), David Njoku (17.9%), Cole Kmet (17.5%), Jared Cook (17%), Mark Andrews (16.7%), Ryan Griffin (16.2%), Rob Gronkowski (16%), James O’Shaughnessy (15.7%) and Pharaoh Brown (15.2%).

It’s just 1 week, of course, and Goedert will beat plenty of those players plenty of times in target share. This is not reason for concern with Goedert. Just be aware of his slightly crowded offense and the potential target limitation in case Goedert comes up in potential trades for you.

Preseason Player Analysis

What You Need to Know:

Goedert took over the TE position for Philly in 2020 and ranked among the league’s most heavily targeted TEs when healthy.
He drew 18.4% of targets in his 9 full outings. Just 4 TEs beat that share for the season: Darren Waller, Travis Kelce, Mark Andrews and Evan Engram. Zach Ertz garnered 17.6% target share over his 11 games, 15.1% in the 5 games Goedert played and didn’t leave early.
Goedert has improved his ranking in Pro Football Focus’ yards per route run each year: from 20th in 2018 among 54 TEs with 20+ targets, to 16th in 2019 and then a tie for 9th last season. (He actually dipped from 1.64 YPRR in 2019 to 1.62 last year, though.)
Goedert finished 2020 ranked 18th among all 125 targeted TEs in PFF receiving grade; 11th among 55 TEs who saw 20+ targets.
New Eagles HC Nick Sirianni spent the past 3 years coordinating a Colts offense that ranked 4th, 4th and 12th in TE target share -- with Eric Ebron, Jack Doyle and Trey Burton as the position’s target leaders.
Each of those Colts teams placed a TE among the top 11 in PFF’s YPRR, including Mo Alie-Cox at 5th last season.

Draft Sharks Bottom Line:

Goedert has played well through 3 seasons. That includes ranking 10th among TEs in PPR points per game in 2020 -- despite leaving 2 of his 11 contests early and playing with a struggling QB. That’s right where he finished the previous season in total points, even with Zach Ertz producing top-5 fantasy numbers. Ertz has since fallen behind Goedert and might even still get traded before the coming season. Either way, Goedert should benefit from a new HC with a TE-friendly past and a pass-catching corps with little proven beyond its TEs. Goedert should present a top-12 floor among fantasy TEs, with upside into the top 5 if Jalen Hurts can improve and Ertz moves on.

Recent Shark Bites View All Shark Bites »

Teams are calling the Eagles about trading for TEs Dallas Goedert and Zach Ertz, according to Fox Sports' Jay Glazer. Glazer adds that he "wouldn't be surprised" if 1 of them is dealt within the next week. A trade would likely increase the fantasy value on both guys considering they've been splitting work in Philadelphia.

View all Dallas Goedert Shark Bites »

Eagles TE Dallas Goedert was not activated from the COVID list and is out for tonight's game vs. the Bucs. We'll see if he can get cleared for Week 7. TE Zach Ertz is a nice target bet tonight with Goedert out and Philly likely to deploy a pass-heavy game plan.

View all Dallas Goedert Shark Bites »

Eagles TE Dallas Goedert has been placed on the COVID list. With Philly hosting the Bucs on Thursday night, Goedert seems unlikely to be cleared in time for that one. His absence would turn TE Zach Ertz into a low-level spot-start option.

View all Dallas Goedert Shark Bites »

Eagles TE Dallas Goedert "is quietly having an outstanding training camp," insider Eliot Shorr-Parks writes. Goedert is reportedly leading the team in catches (39), targets (46) and TDs (6) in practices. He's been slipping in drafts lately as it looks more and more like TE Zach Ertz will remain with the team -- and play a sizable role. But Goedert remains the Eagles' biggest TE talent and even has a shot to lead the team in targets this season. He's at least a lower-end TE1 and still has upside into the top 6 at the position.

View all Dallas Goedert Shark Bites »

Eagles TE Dallas Goedert (calf) has been ruled out for Sunday night’s finale vs. Washington. That leaves Zach Ertz back in the lead TE role. He’s seen 7 targets alongside Goedert in back-to-back games and is a decent Week 17 fantasy play.

View all Dallas Goedert Shark Bites »

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