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Dallas Goedert - Fantasy Points Outlook

Basic Stats Basic Stats

Dallas Goedert
PHI

TE PHI

#10 Tight End

101 Projected Points

ADP: Not Available
Bye: 14
Experience: 3 Yr(s)
Age: 27
Height: 6'5"
Weight: 256
40 Time: 4.67

Weekly Outlook

3d Projection

Low Floor

4.1

DS Projection

8.2

Consensus

38 other sites
2

Med Ceiling

11.9

Rest of
Season

Week 19 Projections
Rec Rec Yds Rec TDs Fantasy Pts
5 64.3 0.3 8.2
Weekly Writeup

Rest Of Way Outlook

Week 13
Losing Jalen Hurts for Sunday’s game against the Jets clearly didn’t damage Goedert. He led the Eagles with 6 targets (24% share) and caught all 6 for 105 yards and 2 TDs. Those scores came from 36 and 25 yards out, displaying some weak coverage (and tackling, on the 1st) by the Jets secondary. A 7th target (incomplete) was actually wiped out by a 3rd-quarter defensive PI call.

Goedert’s day looked especially gaudy next to a 3-target, 1-catch outing in the loss to the Giants. But it marked the 5th time in 7 games since the Zach Ertz trade that Goedert finished in the 5-8 target range. It was just his 3rd time north of 3 receptions over that span but the 4th game of more than 60 yards.

Goedert looks fine toward the bottom of TE1 range going forward, regardless of who lines up behind center. Expect Jalen Hurts to return for the Week 15 clash with Washington.
Week 11
Goedert led the Eagles with 8 targets in Sunday’s win over the Saints. His 8 looks topped DeVonta Smith by 2 and everyone else by at least 5. He caught 5 balls for 62 yards.

Goedert has now seen 5+ targets in each of 4 full games since the Zach Ertz trade. (He left Week 10 early with a concussion.) He has garnered 29.2% of Jalen Hurts targets over those 4 contests.

Goedert hasn’t found the end zone since Week 4, but that kind of usage makes him easy to like inside the position’s top 10 going forward.
Week 9
Goedert had little to show for a 2nd straight game of strong usage.

He caught just 3 balls for 43 yards in Sunday’s loss to the Chargers. But the TE’s 6 targets tied DeVonta Smith for the team lead and marked a 35.3% share of Jalen Hurts’ mere 17 pass attempts. In 3 games since the Zach Ertz trade, Goedert has now drawn a target on 27.7% of Hurts’ pass attempts.

One deep attempt from the QB in the 1st quarter should have found a wide-open Goedert for a long catch, with a chance to beat 1 defender to reach the end zone. Hurts got pressure in his face, though, and delivered an iffy ball that Goedert wasn’t able to haul in.

Overall, we remain encouraged by Goedert’s increased usage. The Eagles should continue leaning more toward the run than they did during a 2-5 start that saw them go 30-70 with their run-pass split. But their 64-36 split over the past 2 weeks looks like an over-correction that’s bound to regress the other way.

Goedert remains a solid buy at a shaky fantasy position.
Week 8
A 6-72 receiving line is pretty good for just about any TE. For Goedert in Week 8, though, it was pretty awesome.

That’s because his 7 targets represented half of the total passes that Jalen Hurts threw in the blowout victory over the Lions. Goedert drew 4 targets among just 8 Eagles pass attempts in the 1st half, catching 3 of those for 35 yards. He then also caught his only other 3 targets after halftime, before Philly pulled starters for the 4th quarter.

Goedert’s role shifted some, in that he spent a season-high 77.8% of his pass snaps lined up “inline,” a traditional TE spot. He spent just 16.7% of those snaps in the slot. By comparison, Goedert spent more than 40% of his pass snaps in the slot in 5 of his 1st 6 games -- with a high of 56.8% in Week 7.

It has seemed clear for a while that the Eagles needed to try at least a little more to get the run game going. Of course, game flow helped push that in a “contest” that found Philly leading 38-0 at the end of the 3rd quarter.

We’ll see whether Goedert’s alignments -- and the Philly offense -- go back to being more like they were through the 1st 7 weeks. But the TE should remain a focal point of the pass offense either way.
Week 7
If you have Goedert rostered, then you already know he saw no noticeable uptick in production Sunday, his 1st game since the Zach Ertz trade. Goedert’s 5 targets ranked 3rd on the team but made up just 14.7% of Jalen Hurts’ total pass attempts. He caught 3 for 70 yards in a soft matchup with the Raiders.

There was some underlying positive, though. Through his 1st 5 games, Goedert’s high for route rate was 68.3% back in Week 1, when he ran a route on 28 of Hurts’ 41 dropbacks. His next 4 games fluctuated between 48.5% and 63.9%. Week 7, however, found Goedert running a route on 87.8% of Hurts’ routes. Only 4 TEs league wide ran more total routes for the week.

So Goedert should become a steadier bet for targets, with at least some games of more than 5. Even those 5 targets, though, came in 1.2 higher than his average through the 1st 5 contests.

Philly’s next 3 games find opponents ranked 19th or worse in coverage DVOA vs. TEs, according to Football Outsiders.
Week 6
Goedert returns from the COVID list to find a gift from the team. The Eagles finally traded TE Zach Ertz to Arizona just after Thursday night’s loss to the Buccaneers, clearing the way for Goedert to reclaim the lead job.

If you combine the numbers for Goedert and Ertz (TE16 and TE15 in PPR through Week 6, respectively), you get a fantasy-point total that would rank 3rd behind Travis Kelce and Mark Andrews for the year so far. We probably shouldn’t just assume Goedert absorbs all of that, but no other Eagles TE has seen a target yet this season. And the new #2 on the depth chart is Jack Stoll, an undrafted rookie who caught 61 total passes for 10.8 yards per reception across 4 years at Nebraska.

Goedert certainly now presents upside into the top 5 at a position that has given us little to count on so far. Just 2 weeks after we presented Goedert as a “sell,” he now might be worth trying to buy ahead of Sunday’s visit to the Raiders.
Week 5
Goedert delivered another lackluster fantasy performance at Carolina in Week 5. His 3 targets tied for just 5th on the team -- with Quez Watkins and Kenneth Gainwell, the #3 WR and #2 RB, respectively. Zach Ertz doubled Goedert’s target count. That marked the 3rd straight game in which Ertz beat Goedert by 3 targets.

Goedert caught 2 of his 3 looks for 28 yards. But the other was a biggie. Goedert dropped what would have been the go-ahead TD in the 4th quarter. And now he’s on the COVID list, almost definitely to miss Week 6.

If you weren’t able to trade Goedert before now, try to do so the next time he has a nice fantasy outing. In the meantime, pray that Philly trades Ertz away before the deadline.
Week 4
Week 4 finally gave us the kind of game we were hoping for when we drafted Goedert: 5-56-1. That’s why we need to try to get out now.

Goedert has been targeted on slightly less than 11% of Eagles pass attempts through 4 games. Actually, let’s get more specific ...

Goedert has seen a 10.96% target share so far this season.

Last year, when he missed 5 games and left 2 others early, Goedert finished with 10.87% of the full-season target share.

Seventeen other TEs finished last season with larger target shares than what Goedert has drawn so far this year.

Zach Ertz is still around. That hurts. Philly also found a #1 WR in the 1st round of this year’s draft. Jalen Reagor -- the 2020 first-rounder -- is playing a bigger role this time around. Even fellow 2nd-year wideout Quez Watkins has stepped up.

Philly’s QB only exacerbates the issue for Goedert. Hurts’ passing has been OK overall. He’s currently 15th among starting QBs in Pro Football Focus passing grade. But if you break it down by distance, Hurts’ weakest grades for 2020 and so far in 2021 have come in the range where Goedert’s average depth of target sits: “short,” 0-9 yards.

Goedert’s 2 TDs this season have him 8th at the position in PPR scoring, even though he’s tied for just 17th in receptions (with Ertz, among others) and tied for 18th in targets. It’ll take at least an Ertz injury or trade to unlock Goedert as a consistent option. Even then, we’re not sure how high the ceiling goes.

Goedert is worth selling aggressively.
Week 3
Goedert had a big play early in each half, for gains of 38 and 28 yards. Other than that: 0 catches in 2 targets. QB Jalen Hurts found TE Zach Ertz for 4 completions in the 2nd half. Still, Goedert’s 66 yards were the team high.
It’s difficult for the crystal ball to see what will happen to a team that stunk up AT&T Stadium Monday night. Clearly, the Hurts-centric game plan against the Cowboys isn’t likely to be repeated against Kansas City. Or would it be more effective against the Chiefs than vs. Dallas’s energetic young defense. Don’t expect Hurts to wait for Goedert to get open deep. Instead, he and TE Zach Ertz could split catches in a more conservative, move-the-chains offense.
Week 2
Week 2 was part fluke, part warning signal for Goedert owners.

The 4th-year pro managed just 2 targets in Sunday’s loss to the 49ers, the 1st of which didn’t come until about 10 minutes remained in the 4th quarter. Goedert nearly took his 2nd opportunity into the end zone but came down just short of the goal line, setting up Jalen Hurts’ sneak for a TD.

Goedert isn’t likely to draw so few targets often. The Eagles attempted only 24 throws for the game, including 1 by WR Greg Ward on a trick play. But Goedert managed just 4 targets in the opener and looks like he’ll be part of a committee rather than a featured receiver. It’s also worth noting that questions remain about Hurts’ mid-range passing, the primary zone for Goedert’s work.

One particular play might have highlighted this Hurts shortcoming vs. San Francisco. Rolling left, the QB could have hit Goedert for a relatively straightforward conversion on 3rd down. Instead, Hurts opted for the deeper -- and more challenging -- throw to DeVonta Smith down the same sideline. (He failed to complete it.)

We’ll see where things go for Goedert. If Zach Ertz remains on the COVID list through Monday night’s game at Dallas, Godert might see more opportunities. As it stands, we’d see about selling Philly’s lead TE the next time he has a big game.
Week 1
No one’s complaining about the 4-42-1 fantasy line that Goedert posted in Week 1, but the outing did show a limitation.

Goedert’s 5 targets tied for 3rd on the team and made up just 14.3% of Jalen Hurts’ pass attempts. Neither of those is a bad number, but they’re also well short of what we can expect from the top shelf of TEs -- as well as T.J. Hockenson and Kyle Pitts (if we don’t consider them “top shelf”).

Beyond that, we also saw all these TEs beat Goedert in Week 1 target share: Adam Trautman (30%), Tyler Higbee (23.1%), Noah Fant (22.2%), David Njoku (17.9%), Cole Kmet (17.5%), Jared Cook (17%), Mark Andrews (16.7%), Ryan Griffin (16.2%), Rob Gronkowski (16%), James O’Shaughnessy (15.7%) and Pharaoh Brown (15.2%).

It’s just 1 week, of course, and Goedert will beat plenty of those players plenty of times in target share. This is not reason for concern with Goedert. Just be aware of his slightly crowded offense and the potential target limitation in case Goedert comes up in potential trades for you.

Basic Stats Preseason Player Analysis

What You Need to Know:

  • Goedert took over the TE position for Philly in 2020 and ranked among the league’s most heavily targeted TEs when healthy.
  • He drew 18.4% of targets in his 9 full outings. Just 4 TEs beat that share for the season: Darren Waller, Travis Kelce, Mark Andrews and Evan Engram. Zach Ertz garnered 17.6% target share over his 11 games, 15.1% in the 5 games Goedert played and didn’t leave early.
  • Goedert has improved his ranking in Pro Football Focus’ yards per route run each year: from 20th in 2018 among 54 TEs with 20+ targets, to 16th in 2019 and then a tie for 9th last season. (He actually dipped from 1.64 YPRR in 2019 to 1.62 last year, though.)
  • Goedert finished 2020 ranked 18th among all 125 targeted TEs in PFF receiving grade; 11th among 55 TEs who saw 20+ targets.
  • New Eagles HC Nick Sirianni spent the past 3 years coordinating a Colts offense that ranked 4th, 4th and 12th in TE target share -- with Eric Ebron, Jack Doyle and Trey Burton as the position’s target leaders.
  • Each of those Colts teams placed a TE among the top 11 in PFF’s YPRR, including Mo Alie-Cox at 5th last season.

Draft Sharks Bottom Line:

Goedert has played well through 3 seasons. That includes ranking 10th among TEs in PPR points per game in 2020 -- despite leaving 2 of his 11 contests early and playing with a struggling QB. That’s right where he finished the previous season in total points, even with Zach Ertz producing top-5 fantasy numbers. Ertz has since fallen behind Goedert and might even still get traded before the coming season. Either way, Goedert should benefit from a new HC with a TE-friendly past and a pass-catching corps with little proven beyond its TEs. Goedert should present a top-12 floor among fantasy TEs, with upside into the top 5 if Jalen Hurts can improve and Ertz moves on.

Recent Shark Bites View All Shark Bites »

The Eagles on Monday activated TE Dallas Goedert and many other players from the COVID list. The most fantasy-relevant names beyond Goedert included RBs Jordan Howard and Boston Scott, and LB Alex Singleton.

View all Dallas Goedert Shark Bites »

Eagles TE Dallas Goedert was not activated from the COVID list and will miss Saturday night's regular-season finale vs. Dallas. He should be back for the Wild Card Round. TE Richard Rodgers was elevated from the practice squad and looks like Philly's Week 18 starter. He's in play in the 2-game DFS slate.

View all Dallas Goedert Shark Bites »

NFL Network's Tom Pelissero reports that "roughly a dozen" Eagles players tested positive for COVID on Monday, including TE Dallas Goedert, C Jason Kelce and DT Fletcher Cox. Last week's change to the league protocol gives all the players time to get back ahead of Saturday's game against the Cowboys. But the virus might also help nudge Philly coaches toward sitting these starters. The Eagles have little to gain in playoff positioning by beating Dallas in Week 18. We'll see what the team says on that front this week.

View all Dallas Goedert Shark Bites »

Eagles TE Dallas Goedert (concussion) put in a full practice on Friday and isn't listed on the final injury report. He's been cleared to play vs. the Saints this weekend. Philadelphia' super run-heavy offense has left Goedert as a low-end TE1.

View all Dallas Goedert Shark Bites »

The Eagles and TE Dallas Goedert agreed to a 4-year, $59 million contract extension with $35 million guaranteed, according to NFL Network's Mike Garafolo. It makes Goedert the league's 3rd-highest-paid TE in terms of average annual salary. Finally freed of TE Zach Ertz, Goedert has been hamstrung by a run-heavy Eagles offense lately. We'll see whether the Eagles stick with QB Jalen Hurts in 2022 and beyond or move in a different direction. But the 26-year-old Goedert is a solid hold in dynasty leagues regardless.

View all Dallas Goedert Shark Bites »

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