Bottom Line

Goedert isn’t some tricky projection for 2023.

He’s not in an elite tier at TE, as Philly’s low-volume passing game will continue prioritizing A.J. Brown and DeVonta Smith.

But it’s not like he’ll starve for looks. Last year, he was on a 17-game pace of nearly 98 targets. Only Travis Kelce beat that mark.

Plus, through five seasons, Goedert’s proven highly efficient. He’s right on track to repeat as a top-8 TE.

What We Learned Last Year

• Goedert missed five games with a small fracture to the glenoid of his left shoulder.
• Across 12 regular-season showings, Goedert finished as the TE5 in PPR points per game.
  • He ranked as a top-10 fantasy TE eight times.
  • Only twice did he finish worse than TE14.
• Goedert benefited from QB Jalen Hurts’ breakout season.
  • Hurts sat fourth in adjusted completion rate; sixth in Pro Football Focus passing grade.
  • Hurts missed Week 16 and Week 17 with an injury. Goedert tallied 3-67 and 3-45 in those games.
• Among 27 TEs with 50+ targets, Goedert tied for first in yards per catch, ranked first in yards after catch per reception, and ranked third in yards per route run.
• He dropped only two targets for a minuscule 3.5% drop rate.
• Goedert was the 3rd option in the red zone, seeing 0.53 RZ targets per game.
  • A.J. Brown saw 0.94, while DeVonta Smith checked in with 0.70.
  • Mix in Hurts’ goal-line scoring prowess, and it’s no surprise Goedert posted a modest TD rate (5.4%).

What to Expect in 2023

• Goedert enters Year 6 at 28 years old, squarely in his prime.
• He’ll look to play a full season for only the second time in his career. Goedert played all 16 games as a rookie.
• The nucleus of this offense – QB Jalen Hurts, WR A.J. Brown, WR DeVonta Smith, and a stout O-line – remains intact.
• The backfield lost Miles Sanders but looks deeper with the arrivals of Rashaad Penny and receiving back D’Andre Swift.
  • Philly RBs combined for a 12% target share in ‘22. That’ll likely increase in 2023, but the impact on Goedert should be minimal.
• OC Shane Steichen left to take the Colts’ HC job. We largely expect the same offense under QBs coach-turned-OC Brian Johnson.
• Per The Athletic, the Eagles had halftime leads in 16 of 20 games last season.
  • Philly held double-digit halftime leads in 11 games.
  • They averaged 18.9 pass attempts in the first half of games; 12.3 pass attempts in the second half.
• A tougher schedule should find more passing for Philly and Hurts, who’s entering only Year 3 as the starter.
  • This defense likely takes a step back, too, after posting a whopping 70 sacks. It’s another reason to believe Hurts’ volume – only ~30 passes per game in 2022 – improves.
• Per Dave Zangaro of NBC Sports: Goedert has spent more time this offseason working alongside Eagles WRs, with the goal of improving his routes/releases.