What You Need to Know:

• Goedert ranked 5th among TEs in target share last season.
• That picked up after Zach Ertz left town. He went from just 11.1% target share with Ertz around to 24.6% after the trade.
• He led the position in yards per route.
• Low passing volume for the team dulled the fantasy results. Goedert ranked just 17th among TEs in total targets for the league’s most run-heavy offense. He checked in 9th in PPR points per game for the season, though, and ranked 8th in total PPR points from Week 8 on (after the Ertz trade).
• Philadelphia spent a 1st-round pick to acquire A.J. Brown this offseason, and then gave him a $100 million extension. That points to intent to pass more.
• Through the first 7 weeks of last season, Philadelphia ranked 8th most pass-heavy in the league in neutral game situations, according to RBSDM.com. We’ll have no idea until this season starts whether this year’s Eagles intend to swing back that far in play calling. But there is at least precedent of the Nick Sirianni Philly offense going pass-first.
• Goedert’s catch rate improved last season – the 1st full year with Jalen Hurts as starter – over the previous 2 years. He also posted career high rates in both yards before catch per reception and yards after catch per reception.
• His 8.8-yard average target distance ranked 10th in 2021 among 58 TEs with 20+ targets.

Draft Sharks Bottom Line:

The Eagles are a near-lock to throw more in 2022 after leading the league in run-heaviness last season. Just how much they swing back in that direction will be a mystery until after the games start. But the big investment in A.J. Brown gives reason to believe a significant swing. And 2021 actually gave us nearly as much time with a pass-leaning Philly offense (8th in neutral pass rate through 7 weeks) as run-heavy (5th in neutral run rate the rest of the way). Because he plays TE, Goedert doesn’t need quite as much target volume as his WR teammates to deliver high-end fantasy production. His efficiency has been good. His QB is a reasonable bet for improvement in just his 2nd full season as the starter. And having Brown plus DeVonta Smith to distract defenses can only make it easier for Goedert to find space. It’s not hard to see top-5 fantasy upside for Goedert, and his ADP doesn’t want to climb higher than TE8 across draft formats and sites. He’s a “buy” on our board.