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Dawson Knox - Fantasy Points Outlook

Basic StatsDawson Knox's Basic Stats

Dawson Knox
ADP: N/A
Bye: 12
Experience: 5
Age: 27.8
Height: 6'4"
Weight: 254
40 Time: 4.64
Speed Score: 109.00

SPARQx (Rank): 109.90 (64%)
Burst Score (Rank): 121.40 (71%)
Agility Score (Rank): 11.39 (72%)
Catch Radius (Rank): 10.14 (77%)

Dawson Knox's Weekly Outlook

Week 6 Projections
Rec Rec Yds Rec TDs Fantasy Pts
0.9 8.6 0.1 1.5
Weekly Writeup

Rest Of Way Outlook

Rec Rec Yds Rec TDs Fantasy Pts
1.1 11.5 0.1 1.9

Dawson Knox's 2024 Projections & Outlook

Scoring

#39 Tight End

55.5 Projected Points

ADP Rec Rec Yds Rec TDs 100 Fum
Not Available 20 212.2 2.39 1 0

3D Projections DS 3D Projections

Basic StatsDawson Knox's Preseason Player Analysis

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Bottom Line

Knox’s career TD rate of 12.8% is excellent.

There’s a chance he pops as a TD scorer in 2024 – just as he did in in 2022 or 2021.

But there’s no predictable volume to chase here, especially with Dalton Kincaid’s arrow pointing straight up. Only consider Knox late in FFPC (TE premium) drafts.

What We Learned Last Year

  • The Bills added TE Dalton Kincaid in Round 1 of the 2023 draft.
  • Knox fractured his wrist in Week 5.
    • He eventually underwent surgery, forcing five missed games.
  • Prior to the injury, Knox totaled only 8 catches for 58 yards and 1 score.
    • Upon returning, he scored twice in a five-game sample, with one surfacing in the postseason.
    • He never topped 3 targets over that stretch.
  • The Bills switched OC’s mid-year in 2023.
    • OC Joe Brady, who returns for 2024, leaned more on the run than former playcaller Ken Dorsey.

What to Expect in 2024

  • Knox took a pay cut in March.
  • The Bills lost Stefon Diggs and Gabe Davis over the offseason.
    • They remove 241 targets from the 2023 offense.
    • Buffalo showed no indication of running out more 2-TE sets, adding Curtis Samuel and spending an early Round 2 pick on Keon Coleman.
    • Note: Buffalo ranked mid-pack in 12 personnel (2-TE) usage in 2023.
  • Khalil Shair returns for year three with clear potential for a larger role.

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Khalil Shakir, WR BUF

11:14am EDT 10/4/24

Coach: Khalil Shakir Won't Play vs. Texans

Bills HC Sean McDermott said Friday on WGR 550 in Buffalo that WR Khalil Shakir won't play Sunday against the Texans. Shakir sprained an ankle late in the Week 4 loss to Baltimore and has missed practice all week.

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Bills TE Dalton Kincaid was excellent in his first day of camp working with Josh Allen, but TE Dawson Knox took all of his reps with Allen as well.

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Bills TE Dawson Knox returned Sunday after missing the previous five games following wrist surgery. His return didn't hurt TE Dalton Kincaid's playing time, though. Kincaid still ran a route on 87.8% of Josh Allen's dropbacks. His 8 targets ranked second on the team, and his 5 receptions tied for the Buffalo lead. Kincaid managed just 21 yards (4.2 per reception), but short targets have been a staple all season. We'll take that issue if it comes with strong reception volume. Sunday marked the seventh straight game of 5+ receptions for Kincaid.

View all Dalton Kincaid Shark Bites »

Bills TE Dawson Knox (wrist) is active for today’s game vs. the Chiefs. We’ll see exactly how big a role he plays in his first action since Week 7. Knox averaged 4.0 targets per game over the first seven weeks of the season to TE Dalton Kincaid’s 4.5. We’re expecting that gap to be wider in Week 14 and beyond.

View all Dawson Knox Shark Bites »

Bills TE Dawson Knox (wrist) has been activated to the 53-man roster. That puts him in line to play vs. the Chiefs on Sunday for the first time since Week 7. Knox would be a desperation fantasy start, but his return dings TE Dalton Kincaid's target projection. It also takes WR Khalil Shakir out of the picture even in deep fantasy leagues.

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Dynasty Overview View TE Dynasty Rankings »

Dawson Knox, TE BUF
Dynasty MVP -11.5
Position Rank #45 TE
3yr Projection
5yr Projection
10yr Projection
91
141
238
Dynasty Write-up
Knox is under contract through the 2026 season, but we'd bet against him making it that far in Buffalo. Dalton Kincaid became a year-one success alongside Josh Allen. Knox, meanwhile, missed a significant amount of time following wrist surgery.
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