Bottom Line

Knox signed a contract extension last September, then saw GM Brandon Beane add Round 1 TE Dalton Kincaid. He adds legit red zone competition and figures to take a bite out of Knox’s target share.

Outside of deep formats, you can pass on Knox in non-best ball redraft leagues. But keep him circled as a potential in-season streamer.

What We Learned Last Year

• Among 26 TEs with 50+ targets, Knox ranked 23rd in Pro Football Focus receiving grade, 10th in catch rate, fourth in TDs, and 23rd in yards per route run.
• The TDs helped propel him to the overall TE13 finish in PPR.
• Playoffs included, Knox went on a five-game scoring streak starting in Week 14.
• Still, Knox finished as a top-6 fantasy TE only once; a top-12 TE five times.
  • He finished worse than TE18 in eight different weeks.
• Knox missed one game with a foot/hamstring injury (Week 5).
• On the year, his 65 targets (4.3 per game) tied Isaiah McKenzie for third on the team.
• Drops remained an issue for the 5th-year pro.
  • He's now posted at least a 9.3% drop rate in all four NFL seasons.

What to Expect in 2023

• Buffalo took the air out of Knox’s fantasy value with the drafting of Round 1 TE Dalton Kincaid.
  • The Utah product brings pro polish following five college seasons. His tape, production, and draft capital suggest a sizable year-one role.
• Recall that Buffalo signed Knox to a contract extension just last September. If there’s a hopeful slant, more two-TE sets are possible this fall.
• Buffalo returns OC Ken Dorsey, who helped this unit rank 13th league-wide in pass rate; 8th in attempts per game.
• QB Josh Allen remained at the top of his game. Compared to 2021, Allen improved his yards per attempt, adjusted completion rate, TD rate, INT rate, and PFF passing grade.
• Buffalo lost ~150 targets to free agency, mainly from RB Devin Singletary and WR Isaiah McKenzie.
  • RB James Cook should absorb a chunk of those. Buffalo also added slot/gadget WR Deonte Harty.