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David Johnson - Fantasy Points Outlook

Basic Stats Basic Stats

David Johnson
HOU

RB HOU

#48 Running Back

76 Projected Points

ADP: Not Available
Bye: 10
Experience: 6 Yr(s)
Age: 30
Height: 6'1"
Weight: 224
40 Time: 4.51

Weekly Outlook

Week 20 Projections

This player does not have a weekly prediction

Rest Of Way Outlook

Week 7
While the numbers are far from eye popping, David Johnson was productive on Sunday. He gained 25 yards on his 7 carries. More importantly he caught 5 of his 6 targets for 27 yards. This was the 2nd time in 3 games where he saw 6 targets. In fact he has 4 or more targets in 3 of the last 4 games. While it's nothing to get too excited about, David Johnson seemingly has life in PPR formats. The Texans offense is in major need of playmakers and if he can see 4 to 6 targets and produce something on the ground he can be a fine bye week or injury fill in. If he finds the end zone its even better.
Week 2
Johnson has seen his role reduced in 2021 as he is strictly a passing down back this season. Through two weeks Johnson has 14 total touches: 9 on the ground and 5 receptions. The issue for Johnson is the Texans employ a 3-man committee backfield, which even limits his pass game role. Over the first two games Johnson is 6th on the team in routes, only running a route on 28 of 68 (41%) Texans drop-backs. This didn’t change much in week 2 as Johnson ran a route on less than 50% of the team’s drop-backs. This makes Johnson a drop candidate heading into week 3.

Basic Stats Preseason Player Analysis

What You Need to Know:

  • Johnson ranked 17th among RBs in PPR points per game and 15th in non-PPR in his Texans debut last year.
  • He missed 3 games with a concussion and a 4th after landing on the COVID list as a high-risk close contact.
  • Johnson scored as a top-24 PPR RB in 9 of his 12 outings. That 75% rate was tied for 8th best.
  • His 3 biggest fantasy outings came in his final 3 games. Johnson ranked 6th, 4th and 11th among RBs in PPR points those weeks.
  • Among 47 RBs with 100+ carries last year, Johnson ranked 29th in Elusive Rating, 31st in Pro Football Focus rushing grade and 23rd in Football Outsiders’ DVOA.
  • Among 37 RBs with 30+ targets, Johnson ranked 29th in yards per route run and 33rd in PFF receiving grade.
  • Johnson averaged 16.1 opportunities (carries + targets) per game last year -- 22nd most.
  • That volume is in jeopardy this coming season after the Texans …
    • Hired a new GM in Nick Caserio and a new HC in David Culley
    • Signed RBs Phillip Lindsay and Mark Ingram in free agency
  • Lindsay beat Johnson in PFF rushing grade last year, but Johnson led the way in Elusive Rating. Ingram trailed both guys by a healthy margin.
  • Johnson is easily the most accomplished pass-catcher of the trio. He’s averaged 3.3 catches and 34 yards per game for his career vs. Lindsay’s 1.8 catches and 11 yards and Ingram’s 2.0 catches and 14 yards.
  • With Deshaun Watson’s Texans future on the ropes and WR Will Fuller gone, this could be 1 of the worst offenses in the league. The other QBs are Tyrod Taylor and rookie Davis Mills. The top 5 WRs figure to be Brandin Cooks, Randall Cobb, Nico Collins, Keke Coutee and Chris Conley.
  • The 2020 Texans offensive line ranked 27th in both Pro Football Focus’ run-blocking grades and Football Outsiders’ adjusted line yards.
  • 3 of 5 starters return from that group: LT Laremy Tunsil, RT Tytus Howard and LG Max Scharping.
  • The Texans traded for former Patriot Marcus Cannon, who’s expected to start at RG. He opted out of the 2020 season and received middling Pro Football Focus grades the previous 2 years.
  • C Nick Martin is expected to be replaced by Justin Britt, who tore an ACL in October of 2019 and missed all of 2020.

Draft Sharks Bottom Line:

Johnson was a nice fantasy asset last year, finishing top 17 in points per game across scoring formats.

His situation looks much shakier heading into 2021, though. He’s playing under new HC David Culley and will face added competition from arrivals Phillip Lindsay and Mark Ingram. Plus, Houston’s offense figures to struggle without QB Deshaun Watson for part or all of the season.

Johnson could still provide RB3 or flex value if he remains the backfield’s lead ball-carrier and pass-catcher. But if this turns into a 3-man committee, you’ll want to stay away.

Recent Shark Bites View All Shark Bites »

Texans RB David Johnson has been activated from the COVID list. He figures to play vs. the Titans on Sunday but should only steal a handful of touches from RB Rex Burkhead.

View all David Johnson Shark Bites »

Texans RB David Johnson was not activated from the COVID list and will miss today’s game vs. the 49ers. Rex Burkhead should remain Houston’s clear lead back, with Royce Freeman the #2.

View all David Johnson Shark Bites »

The Texans on Monday placed RB David Johnson on the COVID list. That's probably good news for fantasy, as Johnson was already inactive with a quad injury Sunday against the Chargers. That helped pave the way for Rex Burkhead's blowup. Burkhead should be in line for another feature role next Sunday at San Francisco -- albeit, a much worse rushing matchup.

View all David Johnson Shark Bites »

Texans RB David Johnson (quad) is inactive for today’s game vs. the Chargers. Rex Burkhead should operate as Houston’s clear lead back, with Royce Freeman as the #2.

View all David Johnson Shark Bites »

Texans RB David Johnson (quad) is not expected to play vs. the Chargers today, per NFL Network's Ian Rapoport. That'll leave Royce Freeman as the #2 RB behind Rex Burkhead.

View all David Johnson Shark Bites »

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