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Derrick Henry - Fantasy Points Outlook

Basic Stats Basic Stats

Derrick Henry
TEN

RB TEN

#3 Running Back

264 Projected Points

ADP: Not Available
Bye: 13
Experience: 5 Yr(s)
Age: 27
Height: 6'3"
Weight: 247
40 Time: 4.52

Weekly Outlook

3d Projection

High Floor

10.8

DS Projection

14.4

Consensus

38 other sites
17

Low Ceiling

17.3

Rest of
Season

16.6

Week 6 Projections
Rush Yds Rush TDs Rec Rec Yds Rec TDs Fantasy Pts
87 0.7 2 15.3 0 14.4
Weekly Writeup
Fantasy’s RB1, Henry’s handled 29+ touches in 4 straight. Incredible.

Rest Of Way Outlook

Rush Yds Rush TDs Rec Rec Yds Rec TDs Fantasy Pts
95 0.8 2.3 17 0.1 16.6
Week 5
Henry rushed 29 times for 130 yards and 3 TDs in the Titans' Week 6 win over Jacksonville.
Henry continued his dominant season with 28+ carries in 4 of 5 games. He’s exceeded 100+ rushing in 4 straight games and easily leads the league in rushing yards on the season.
Henry is an every week top 3 RB play. The Titans get the Bills in Week 6 on Monday Night Football.
Week 4
Henry is like Thanos, the man is inevitable. With one snap of his fingers, Henry turns 33 carries into 157 yards and a TD. Many people were worried about the change in OC, but it looks like Todd Downing understands that you ride Henry as much as you can. The bigger factor for Henry has been his pass game usage this season. Yes, this week he only saw 2 targets, but that was his season low. For context Henry only saw over 2 targets 4 times in 2020.
This week Henry takes on the Jaguars, who he has owned in his career. Last season Henry had a 200-yard rushing performance vs. Jacksonville and in 2019 he topped 150 in a game. We hope the Titans can get back one of Julio Jones or A.J. Brown to give a boost to the offense, but either way it doesn’t really matter for Henry.
Week 3
Don’t look now, but Henry can catch the ball, too. And Tennessee is finally willing to throw it to him.

Henry entered the season with a career high of just 19 receptions (in 2020). He now has 12 catches through just 3 games, among 13 targets.

Henry added 3-31 receiving on 3 targets in Sunday’s win over the Colts to a solid 28-113 effort on the ground. He didn’t score a TD -- leaving Ryan Tannehill to throw for all 3 of those in the game -- but did punch in a 2-point conversion.

If you drafted Henry in Round 1, smile at his enhanced passing-game usage and keep him glued to your lineup.
Week 2
Derrick Henry absolutely blew up in Week 2, scoring over 44 points in half-PPR. Henry did what Henry normally does, taking 35 carries for 182 yards and 3 TDs. More encouraging was his passing game usage. Henry saw a career high 6 targets, securing all 6 for 55 yards. This marked only the 4th time in his career that he has gone over 50 yards receiving in a game. Is this a fluke? It might not be as Henry ran a route on 21 of 45 (46%) Tannehill drop-backs.
Heading into Week 3, Henry is a clear auto-start in season-long leagues but could be solid DFS play after rushing for over 100 yards in both games vs. Indy in 2020.
Week 1
Week 1 was awful for Henry, who rushed for 58 yards on 17 attempts. Last season Henry failed to eclipse 60 rushing yards only once. If you want a positive to take away from this game, Henry saw 4 targets in Week 1, a number he matched only twice a season ago. If Henry can see even a slight uptick in passing volume, his potential in any sort of PPR format is raised even higher. Going forward, Henry remains among the elite options in fantasy. Call Week 1 a blip and move on. Next up is a meeting with Seattle.

Basic Stats Preseason Player Analysis

What You Need to Know:

  • Henry last year became the 8th player in NFL history to rush for 2,000+ yards.
  • His 2,027 yards were 5th most all-time -- and a whopping 470 more than any other player recorded last year.
  • Henry also led the league with 378 carries and 17 rushing scores.
  • He topped 200 yards in 3 games, including in 2 of his final 4. The rest of the league combined for 2 games of 200+ rushing yards.
  • Henry set career highs last year in targets and catches … but he still ranked just 38th at his position with 31 targets and 45th with 19 catches.
  • Henry led all RBs in non-PPR points and finished 3rd in PPR.
  • That all followed a big 303-1540-16 rushing line in 2019. Henry finished 2nd in non-PPR points and 5th in PPR that year.
  • Over the past 2 seasons, Henry has 875 more rushing yards and 4 more rushing TDs than any other RB.
  • He also has 119 more carries than any other RB.
  • Including the postseason, Henry has carried a whopping 782 times over the last 2 years.
  • He missed just 1 game over that span, though (hamstring in 2019). And he’s missed just 2 total games with injury across 5 NFL seasons.
  • The Titans lost OC and play-caller Arthur Smith, who took Atlanta’s HC job. He’ll be replaced by Todd Downing. He spent the past 2 seasons as Tennessee’s TE coach, so the team is looking for continuity in scheme. But Downing has just 1 season of NFL OC experience. That came back in 2017 with the Raiders, who finished 17th in total yards, 23rd in points, 30th in rushing attempts and 25th in rushing yards.
  • Tennessee also lost WR Corey Davis and TE Jonnu Smith. Those guys ranked 2nd and 3rd on the team last year in catches, receiving yards and receiving scores last year.
  • But they added WR Julio Jones -- an upgrade over Davis -- and return underrated TE Anthony Firkser.
  • Henry’s offensive line might be better this year than last. Stud LT Taylor Lewan should be back for Week 1 after going down with a torn ACL last October. And 2nd-round rookie Dillon Radunz might be an immediate upgrade at RT. The interior of Tennessee’s O-line returns from last year.

Draft Sharks Bottom Line:

Henry is coming off the 8th 2,000-yard rushing season in NFL history and easily leads the league in carries, rushing yards and rushing TDs over the past 2 years. Despite underwhelming receiving production, he’s finished as a top 5 RB across fantasy scoring formats both years. Aaron Jones is the only other guy who can say that.

Henry should again be the focal point of Tennessee’s offense in 2021 and is the best carry bet in the league. (We project him for over 30 more carries than anyone else.) While the volume of carries he’s handled over the past 2 seasons is a slight concern, Henry has proven super durable and is still only 27.

The loss of OC Arthur Smith is a concern, but the addition of WR Julio Jones is exciting. This should remain an efficient offense, leading to plenty of scoring opportunities for Henry.

Recent Shark Bites View All Shark Bites »

The Titans and Patriots' latest COVID tests came back with no positives on Friday, ESPN's Adam Schefter reports. So Tennessee's game vs. the Bills on Tuesday and New England's vs. the Broncos on Monday are still on track to be played. That could still change with positive tests over the next couple of days. Stay tuned.

View all Derrick Henry Shark Bites »

The NFL announced on Thursday morning that the Steelers-Titans game will not be played this week after a 5th Titans player tested positive for COVID. We're still waiting to hear when the game will be played, but Week 4 now acts as a bye week for Steelers and Titans players. Get them out of your starting lineups.

View all Derrick Henry Shark Bites »

The NFL is postponing this week's Steelers-Titans game after multiple Tennessee players tested positive for COVID earlier this week, according to ESPN's Dianna Russini. NFL Network's Ian Rapoport, meanwhile, hears that the game will be rescheduled for either Monday or Tuesday. That'd keep all Pittsburgh and Tennessee players available to use in Week 4 fantasy lineups. We're keeping those guys in the Week 4 Rankings for now -- but it'd still be wise to line up alternatives in case the situation changes.

View all Derrick Henry Shark Bites »

The Titans had 3 players and 5 personnel test positive for COVID, NFL Network's Tom Pelissero reports. The Titans and the Vikings, who played Tennessee this past week, are suspending in-person activities starting today. We'll see where this goes.

View all Derrick Henry Shark Bites »

The Titans and RB Derrick Henry agreed to a 4-year, $50 million contract just before Wednesday's deadline for franchise-tagged players to sign long-term deals. Henry will get $25.5 million in guaranteed money -- the 6th most on any current RB contract. His $12.5 million average annual salary ranks 5th. It's a strong contract for Henry in today's RB market and ensures that he'll be a focal point of Tennessee's offense for the next few years. The big question for Henry's fantasy stock is whether he'll garner a bigger role in the passing game. He's averaging just 18.5 targets per season.

View all Derrick Henry Shark Bites »

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