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Derrick Henry - Fantasy Points Outlook

Basic StatsDerrick Henry's Basic Stats

Derrick Henry
ADP: 8.9
Bye: 14
Experience: 8
Age: 30.3
Height: 6'3"
Weight: 247
40 Time: 4.54

SPARQx (Rank): 122.40 (83%)
Burst Score (Rank): 127.90 (88%)
Agility Score (Rank): 11.58 (30%)
Three Cone Drill (Rank): 7.20

Derrick Henry's Weekly Outlook

Week 1 Projections
Rush Yds Rush TDs Rec Rec Yds Rec TDs Fantasy Pts
74 0.71 1.3 9.9 0.04 12.4
Weekly Writeup

Rest Of Way Outlook

Rush Yds Rush TDs Rec Rec Yds Rec TDs Fantasy Pts
83.6 0.7 2 15.9 0.1 14.2

Derrick Henry's 2024 Projections & Outlook

Scoring

#7 Running Back

203.2 Projected Points

ADP Rush Atts Rush Yds Rush TDs 100 Fum Rec Rec Yds Rec TDs
8.9 268.8 1184.1 11.36 6.4 1.6 20.9 159.8 0.64

3D Projections DS 3D Projections

Basic StatsDerrick Henry's Preseason Player Analysis

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Bottom Line

HC John Harbaugh said early on that you should expect Henry the Raven to look a lot like Henry the Titan. This Baltimore offense probably won’t go quite as run-heavy as those Tennessee units. But the contract confirms they think highly of the vet RB, and the backfield presents little competition. Lamar Jackson’s presence should help Henry’s per-touch efficiency, setting up another top-12 season for a trustworthy fantasy RB.

What We Learned Last Year

  • Just like we said in this space a year ago, we learned last season that Henry can still do it. The hoss spent his age-29 season leading the league in carries (280) for the second straight year and fourth time in five seasons. (That other year found him averaging a career-high 27.4 carries per game across eight outings.)
  • Henry’s yards per carry dipped to 4.2, matching his career low from 2017 (his second season).
  • Henry’s carries per game decreased significantly with Tyjae Spears’ arrival, from 21.8 to 16.5. It was Henry’s first time averaging fewer than 20.2 since he became the starter in 2019.
  • The advanced stats looked good, though:
    • Henry’s yards after contact per attempt and PFF elusive rating were down vs. 2022 but higher than his 2021 numbers and in line with his career.
    • Henry posted the second-most missed tackles forced per attempt in his career, trailing only 2018.
    • His rush yards over expected per attempt have increased each of the past two years, according to NFL Next Gen Stats.
    • Henry ranked a solid 17th among 49 qualifiers in that category, despite facing 8+ defenders in the box at the league’s second-highest rate.

What to Expect in 2024

  • Baltimore clearly believes that Henry still has it. The Ravens gave him $16 million on a two-year deal in free agency, with $9 million of that guaranteed. That from a franchise that has succeeded with Lamar Jackson as rushing-yardage leader for five straight seasons.
    • The last five RBs to lead Baltimore in rushing yards:
      • 2018: Gus Edwards
      • 2017: Alex Collins
      • 2016: Terrance West
      • 2015: Justin Forsett
      • 2014: Justin Forsett
    • Bottom line: The Ravens haven’t needed fancy RBs.
  • There’s room for Baltimore to support Henry’s value even while passing more than they did under former OC Greg Roman.
  • The Ravens climbed to seventh in neutral pass rate last season vs. 12th each of the previous two years and 25th from 2019-2022 (Lamar Jackson starting years). Yet they still also climbed to 15th in RB carries last year vs. 20th and 30th the previous two years.
  • The RB depth chart looks iffy to poor behind Henry.
    • J.K. Dobbins and Gus Edwards are gone – both to the Chargers.
    • Keaton Mitchell emerged as a big-play threat over the second half of last season but tore an ACL in mid-December. Even at full health, the 179-pounder looks like a limited-touch player.
    • Justice Hill returns after leading Ravens RBs in receiving in 2023 but falling well behind Gus Edwards in carries. He has averaged just 3.4 rushes per game across four seasons. (Missed 2021 with an injury.)
    • Rasheen Ali is a fifth-round rookie. We’ll see.
  • Henry should dominate RB carries in Baltimore and might overtake Hill for receiving work as well. He graded out better than Hill last season in both pass blocking (12th-best among all RBs) and receiving, according to PFF.

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Derrick Henry, RB BAL

12:43pm EDT 3/12/24

Ravens hand backfield to Derrick Henry

As many expected, the Ravens have agreed to terms with former Titans RB Derrick Henry. ESPN's Adam Schefter reports that Henry will get a two-year, $16 million deal -- with a $20 million max value and $9 million guaranteed for 2024. That means Henry will take over the backfield for at least the coming season. Despite last offseason's OC switch and other investments in the passing game, Baltimore finished 2023 as the league's most run-heavy offense (50.3% of plays). QB Lamar Jackson skews that rate with his scrambling, but it's clearly a good situation for Henry. His Underdog Fantasy ADP sits at RB15 as of this writing, at the end of Round 5. If Henry stays in that range, he'll be smash pick for best ball. Check our best ball rankings to compare our outlook for Henry with the market's. J.K. Dobbins, meanwhile, just got easier to drop in dynasty formats -- in case you were on the fence. Keaton Mitchell? We'll have to watch his progress throughout the summer as he returns from a December ACL tear.

View all Derrick Henry Shark Bites »

Titans RB Derrick Henry managed just 42 yards on 12 carries in Sunday's loss to the Texans. That marked his third time in the past four games with 3.5 yards per carry or less. Henry also went without a catch for the first time since Week 3. He has finished seven of his past eight contests with 1 reception or fewer. That all makes Henry a shaky play for Week 18 vs. Jacksonville. And might we also see Tennessee give more work to rookie RB Tyjae Spears in the game's final season -- ahead of an offseason that will almost certainly see Henry leave? It wouldn't be a crazy move. We'll watch for any indication of Week 18 plans. Either way, you shouldn't be excited to play Henry in any format in Week 18.

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The Texans have ruled out Edge Jonathan Greenard (ankle) for Sunday's game against the Titans -- and they might miss as many as three other D-line starters. Edge Will Anderson Jr. (ankle), DT Maliek Collins (hip), and DT Sheldon Rankins (ankle) are questionable. Anderson missed the past two games with the injury and managed just a limited Friday practice this week. He doesn't look like a good bet for IDP lineups even if active. Rankins also put in just a single limited workout, while Collins missed the whole week. At the least, this D-line will be well below full strength. That can only help the matchup for Titans RB Derrick Henry. He posted a terrible 10 total yards on 20 touches in the teams' Week 15 meeting, but Anderson was the only of those four D-linemen injured for that contest. Henry looks like an RB2 with upside across formats this week.

View all Jonathan Greenard Shark Bites »

Titans RB Derrick Henry assessed his future following Sunday’s loss to Houston. Henry is slated to hit free agency in 2024. “Yeah, definitely today you had that feeling [that it could be the end of my career with the Titans]," said Henry. "I had hope of kind of slipping in there [the playoffs], and then being eliminated with three games left. I've been here my whole career. Definitely wanted to go out strong, which that isn't the case.” Per ESPN's Turon Davenport, the Titans have $91.8 million in projected cap space, so money isn't an issue. Henry, though, might want a change of scenery at 30 years old (in January). Tennessee ends the season against Seattle, Houston, and Jacksonville.

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Dynasty Overview View RB Dynasty Rankings »

Derrick Henry, RB BAL
Dynasty MVP 60.1
Position Rank #71 RB
3yr Projection
5yr Projection
10yr Projection
239
318
369
Dynasty Write-up
Henry returned from a 2021 Jones Fracture to post the PPR RB4 season in 2022. The now 30-year-old is set for for Baltimore's lead back role following a healthy 2023 that turned up 1,381 total yards and 12 TDs.
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