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Derrick Henry - Fantasy Points Outlook

Basic Stats Basic Stats

Derrick Henry


#3 Running Back

263 Projected Points

ADP: 1.3
Bye: 13
Experience: 5 Yr(s)
Age: 27
Height: 6'3"
Weight: 247
40 Time: 4.52

2021 Projections & Outlook


#3 Running Back

263 Projected Points

ADP Rush Atts Rush Yds Rush TDs 100 Fum Rec Rec Yds Rec TDs
1.3 322 1566 13 7 2 28 228 1

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Basic Stats Preseason Player Analysis

What You Need to Know:

  • Henry last year became the 8th player in NFL history to rush for 2,000+ yards.
  • His 2,027 yards were 5th most all-time -- and a whopping 470 more than any other player recorded last year.
  • Henry also led the league with 378 carries and 17 rushing scores.
  • He topped 200 yards in 3 games, including in 2 of his final 4. The rest of the league combined for 2 games of 200+ rushing yards.
  • Henry set career highs last year in targets and catches … but he still ranked just 38th at his position with 31 targets and 45th with 19 catches.
  • Henry led all RBs in non-PPR points and finished 3rd in PPR.
  • That all followed a big 303-1540-16 rushing line in 2019. Henry finished 2nd in non-PPR points and 5th in PPR that year.
  • Over the past 2 seasons, Henry has 875 more rushing yards and 4 more rushing TDs than any other RB.
  • He also has 119 more carries than any other RB.
  • Including the postseason, Henry has carried a whopping 782 times over the last 2 years.
  • He missed just 1 game over that span, though (hamstring in 2019). And he’s missed just 2 total games with injury across 5 NFL seasons.
  • The Titans lost OC and play-caller Arthur Smith, who took Atlanta’s HC job. He’ll be replaced by Todd Downing. He spent the past 2 seasons as Tennessee’s TE coach, so the team is looking for continuity in scheme. But Downing has just 1 season of NFL OC experience. That came back in 2017 with the Raiders, who finished 17th in total yards, 23rd in points, 30th in rushing attempts and 25th in rushing yards.
  • Tennessee also lost WR Corey Davis and TE Jonnu Smith. Those guys ranked 2nd and 3rd on the team last year in catches, receiving yards and receiving scores last year.
  • But they added WR Julio Jones -- an upgrade over Davis -- and return underrated TE Anthony Firkser.
  • Henry’s offensive line might be better this year than last. Stud LT Taylor Lewan should be back for Week 1 after going down with a torn ACL last October. And 2nd-round rookie Dillon Radunz might be an immediate upgrade at RT. The interior of Tennessee’s O-line returns from last year.

Draft Sharks Bottom Line:

Henry is coming off the 8th 2,000-yard rushing season in NFL history and easily leads the league in carries, rushing yards and rushing TDs over the past 2 years. Despite underwhelming receiving production, he’s finished as a top 5 RB across fantasy scoring formats both years. Aaron Jones is the only other guy who can say that.

Henry should again be the focal point of Tennessee’s offense in 2021 and is the best carry bet in the league. (We project him for over 30 more carries than anyone else.) While the volume of carries he’s handled over the past 2 seasons is a slight concern, Henry has proven super durable and is still only 27.

The loss of OC Arthur Smith is a concern, but the addition of WR Julio Jones is exciting. This should remain an efficient offense, leading to plenty of scoring opportunities for Henry.


Recent Shark Bites View All Shark Bites »

The Titans and Patriots' latest COVID tests came back with no positives on Friday, ESPN's Adam Schefter reports. So Tennessee's game vs. the Bills on Tuesday and New England's vs. the Broncos on Monday are still on track to be played. That could still change with positive tests over the next couple of days. Stay tuned.

View all Derrick Henry Shark Bites »

The NFL announced on Thursday morning that the Steelers-Titans game will not be played this week after a 5th Titans player tested positive for COVID. We're still waiting to hear when the game will be played, but Week 4 now acts as a bye week for Steelers and Titans players. Get them out of your starting lineups.

View all Derrick Henry Shark Bites »

The NFL is postponing this week's Steelers-Titans game after multiple Tennessee players tested positive for COVID earlier this week, according to ESPN's Dianna Russini. NFL Network's Ian Rapoport, meanwhile, hears that the game will be rescheduled for either Monday or Tuesday. That'd keep all Pittsburgh and Tennessee players available to use in Week 4 fantasy lineups. We're keeping those guys in the Week 4 Rankings for now -- but it'd still be wise to line up alternatives in case the situation changes.

View all Derrick Henry Shark Bites »

The Titans had 3 players and 5 personnel test positive for COVID, NFL Network's Tom Pelissero reports. The Titans and the Vikings, who played Tennessee this past week, are suspending in-person activities starting today. We'll see where this goes.

View all Derrick Henry Shark Bites »

The Titans and RB Derrick Henry agreed to a 4-year, $50 million contract just before Wednesday's deadline for franchise-tagged players to sign long-term deals. Henry will get $25.5 million in guaranteed money -- the 6th most on any current RB contract. His $12.5 million average annual salary ranks 5th. It's a strong contract for Henry in today's RB market and ensures that he'll be a focal point of Tennessee's offense for the next few years. The big question for Henry's fantasy stock is whether he'll garner a bigger role in the passing game. He's averaging just 18.5 targets per season.

View all Derrick Henry Shark Bites »

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