Drake Maye - Fantasy Points Outlook

Bottom Line

While his play dipped in 2023, we saw enough from Maye in college to believe he’ll be a future fantasy contributor.

But will that come in 2024? It’s unlikely. The Pats’ offensive infrastructure isn’t proven around him. And it remains to be seen if Maye will even earn the Week 1 nod over Jacoby Brissett.

Maye’s only worth a late-round stash in superflex setups.

What We Learned Last Year

• Maye sat behind Sam Howell as a freshman at North Carolina.
• Come year two, Maye emerged as one of the nation's top passers.
  • He ranked among the nation's leaders in passing yards (4,293) and TDs (38).
  • He showed an efficient game with a 75.4% adjusted completion rate and 8.3 YPA.
  • Maye really leaned on current Colt Josh Downs (94-1,029-11).
• In 2023, with Downs in the NFL and a new OC in town, Maye’s play regressed.
  • Maye’s accuracy and decision-making lacked consistency.
  • His college career ended with two of his worst PFF-graded performances: at Clemson and at NC State. The NC State game turned up an ankle sprain.
  • Maye also played through an early-season ankle injury for several weeks, per HC Mack Brown.
• As a rusher, Maye displayed some fantasy upside.
  • He scrambled on 10% of his dropbacks in 2023; 11.8% in 2022.
  • The 223-pounder notched 16 rushing TDs over that stretch.

What to Expect in 2024

• The Pats drafted Maye third overall, behind Caleb Williams and Jayden Daniels.
• Jacoby Brissett returned to New England in free agency.
  • His deal calls for $8 million, with an additional $4 million available through incentives.
• Brissett took the first snaps at OTAs, but HC Jerod Mayo has said the two will compete for the starting gig in camp.
• It’s reasonable to expect Brissett to start early in the year.
  • In the league since 2016, he's started 48 NFL games.
• Whenever Maye gets his shot, it’s tough to see him thriving with the current cast of weapons.
• The Pats added a pair of rookies in the draft: Ja’Lynn Polk (Round 2) and Javon Baker (Round 4).
  • Polk adds a do-it-all presence with NFL size.
  • Baker adds dynamic ability, both post-catch and with the deep ball.
• Veteran WR Kendrick Bourne is coming off an October ACL tear.
• Demario Douglas adds a solid slot presence.
• Hunter Henry returns for year four in New England to supply a solid (albeit unspectacular) TE1 option.
• The O-line has a huge question mark at LT, where Chukwuma Okorafor is expected to start. He was a spot starter for Pittsburgh last year and will be making the transition from RT.
  • G Cole Strange is expected to miss early-season games due to a knee injury, per NFL Network's Ian Rapoport.