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Drake Maye - Fantasy Points Outlook

Basic StatsDrake Maye's Basic Stats

Drake Maye
ADP: 17.7
Bye: 14
Experience: 0
Age: 21.8
Height: 6'4"
Weight: 223

Drake Maye's Weekly Outlook

Week 1 Projections
Yds TDs INT Rush Yds Fantasy Pts
0 0 0 0 0
Weekly Writeup

Rest Of Way Outlook

Drake Maye's 2024 Projections & Outlook

Scoring

#28 Quarterback

236.4 Projected Points

ADP Comp/Att P Yds P TD INT Att R Yds Fum
17.7 297/486 3390 21 10.5 46.5 231 4.5

3D Projections DS 3D Projections

Basic StatsDrake Maye's Preseason Player Analysis

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Bottom Line

While his play dipped in 2023, we saw enough from Maye in college to believe he’ll be a future fantasy contributor.

But will that come in 2024? It’s unlikely. The Pats’ offensive infrastructure isn’t proven around him. And it remains to be seen if Maye will even earn the Week 1 nod over Jacoby Brissett.

Maye’s only worth a late-round stash in superflex setups.

What We Learned Last Year

  • Maye sat behind Sam Howell as a freshman at North Carolina.
  • Come year two, Maye emerged as one of the nation's top passers.
    • He ranked among the nation's leaders in passing yards (4,293) and TDs (38).
    • He showed an efficient game with a 75.4% adjusted completion rate and 8.3 YPA.
    • Maye really leaned on current Colt Josh Downs (94-1,029-11).
  • In 2023, with Downs in the NFL and a new OC in town, Maye’s play regressed.
    • Maye’s accuracy and decision-making lacked consistency.
    • His college career ended with two of his worst PFF-graded performances: at Clemson and at NC State. The NC State game turned up an ankle sprain.
    • Maye also played through an early-season ankle injury for several weeks, per HC Mack Brown.
  • As a rusher, Maye displayed some fantasy upside.
    • He scrambled on 10% of his dropbacks in 2023; 11.8% in 2022.
    • The 223-pounder notched 16 rushing TDs over that stretch.

What to Expect in 2024

  • The Pats drafted Maye third overall, behind Caleb Williams and Jayden Daniels.
  • Jacoby Brissett returned to New England in free agency.
    • His deal calls for $8 million, with an additional $4 million available through incentives. It’s strong backup money.
  • Brissett took the first snaps at OTAs, but HC Jerod Mayo has said the two will compete for the starting gig in camp.
  • It’s reasonable to expect Brissett to start early in the year.
    • In the league since 2016, he's started 48 NFL games.
  • Whenever Maye gets his shot, it’s tough to see him thriving with the current cast of weapons.
  • The Pats added a pair of rookies in in the draft: Ja’Lynn Polk (Round 2) and Javon Baker (Round 4).
    • Polk adds a do-it-all presence with NFL size.
    • Baker adds dynamic ability, both post-catch and with the deep ball.
  • Veteran WR Kendrick Bourne is coming off an October ACL tear.
  • Demario Douglas adds a slot presence, but he’s not a difference-maker.
  • Hunter Henry returns for year four in New England to supply a solid (albeit unspectular) TE1 option.
  • The O-line has a huge question mark at LT, where Chukwuma Okorafor is expected to start. He was a spot-starter for Pittsburgh last year and will be making the transition from RT.
    • G Cole Strange is expected to miss early-season games due to a knee injury, per NFL Network's Ian Rapoport.

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Drake Maye, QB NE

2:05pm EDT 7/18/24

Drake Maye Still Behind to be QB1

The Athletic’s Chad Graff believes there’s only a 35% chance of Pats QB Drake Maye starting Week 1. Graff notes that “most” of the rookie’s offseason reps came with the third-string offense – and none with the starters.

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Chad Graff of The Athletic says Patriots rookie QB Drake Maye "is going to have to be the obvious winner" over Jacoby Brissett in their training-camp competition to take the starting job at the beginning of the season. "If the competition between them is even close, Brissett is probably under center in the opener."

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The Patriots selected UCF WR Javon Baker in Round 4 of the NFL Draft. Baker’s college journey began at Alabama, where he arrived as a four-star recruit. Meaningful production simply didn’t follow. From 2020-2021, the Georgia native tallied only 9 catches (19 games). He entered the transfer portal in January of 2022 and landed at UCF that June. Right away, he led the Knights in yards (796) while finishing second in catches (56) and TDs (5). Baker’s production hit new highs last fall (52-1,139-7) as he played more of a downfield role. His aDOT finished at 17.1, while he also averaged 7.2 yards after catch per reception. Baker’s 3.21 yards per route run should also open eyes. That ranked eighth among 78 WRs with 80+ targets. Baker doesn’t always show plus speed on tape, but at 6’1, 207, he does a nice job in contested situations. We’ll just have to keep an eye on his hands. For his career, Baker dropped 15 passes for an 11.4% drop rate. The rookie joins a rebuilding Patriots offense that’s also added QB Drake Maye and WR Ja’Lynn Polk so far in this draft. There’s certainly opportunity for Baker to earn a 2024 role, although he’s only worth a shot in deep best-ball drafts for now. Longer term, he could develop into a top-2 option for New England.

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The Patriots drafted North Carolina QB Drake Maye in Round 1 of the NFL Draft. Maye took over as North Carolina’s starter in 2022 and turned in an incredible sophomore season. He racked up 4,321 yards and 38 TDs vs. just seven INTs on a 66.2% completion rate and 8.4 yards per attempt. Maye ranked third among 93 qualifying QBs in Pro Football Focus passing grades, displaying an impressive combination of aggression and decision-making. His 8.4% big-time throw rate – a PFF stat for downfield, tight-window completions – ranked second among those 93 QBs, while his 2.4% turnover-worthy play rate ranked 22nd. Maye’s wrong production took a step back last year: 3,608 yards and 24 TDs. He dealt with an ankle injury, an OC change, and the departure of go-to WR Josh Downs. But Maye still completed 63.3% of his passes at 8.5 yards per attempt and ranked seventh among 95 qualifiers in PFF passing grade. He has ideal size at 6’4, 223 pounds with an explosive release and the arm strength to make any throw on the field. Maye is also a plus athlete, throwing well on the run and rushing for 1,147 yards and 16 TDs over the past two seasons. There are shades of Justin Herbert to Maye’s game; he has that type of fantasy ceiling. To reach it, though, the Pats must upgrade the offense around him. For now, Maye’s looking at a WR corps of Demario Douglas, K.J. Osborn, Kendrick Bourne, and JuJu Smith-Schuster. There’s a chance that Jacoby Brissett is the Week 1 starter. Beyond superflex formats, Maye is off the redraft radar.

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UNC QB Drake Maye measured in at nearly 6'5, 223 pounds at the NFL Combine. He declined to throw or complete athletic testing. Per NFL Network's Ian Rapoport, Maye "impressed" in team interviews. There was certainly a lot to show off in 2022, when the now-21-year-old burst on the national stage. He showed NFL-caliber arm talent en route to a 4,321-38-7 passing line. His play plateaued last fall when WR Josh Downs jumped to the NFL. Still, Maye’s 2023 tape showed enough to keep us interested in him as a future top-12 fantasy QB. See where he lands in the pre-draft dynasty QB rankings.

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Dynasty Overview View QB Dynasty Rankings »

Drake Maye, QB NE
Dynasty MVP 218.4
Position Rank #41 QB
3yr Projection
5yr Projection
10yr Projection
643
1,097
2,214
Dynasty Write-up
Maye burst on the scene in 2022 with 4,321 passing yards, 38 TDs, and just 7 INTs. An ankle injury, an OC change, and losing go-to WR Josh Downs contributed to a relatively disappointing 2023. Still, Maye’s overall resume suggests he’s a future fantasy QB1. Well-built at 6’4, 230, he can make any throw on the field. Maye also ran for 1,147 yards and 16 TDs across his two starting campaigns. The situation in New England isn't great, but they have the resources to make a significant addition.
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