Gus Edwards - Fantasy Points Outlook

What You Need to Know:

• Edwards suffered an ACL tear last September 9.
• HC John Harbaugh conceded on August 10 that Edwards is unlikely to be ready for the start of the season
  • "Gus is doing really well. He's kind of a patient rehab guy," Harbaugh said. "I don't know that he'll be the first week, but before the season's over I think he's going to be roaring and ready to go."
• Last time he was on the field, Edwards beat Dobbins in Pro Football Focus rushing grade, ranking 5th in that category among 64 RBs with 70+ carries in 2020. Edwards ranked well behind Dobbins in elusive rating, checking in 34th. (Dobbins ranked 11th.)
• Edwards narrowly trailed Dobbins in 2020 workload. He actually edged Dobbins 9.0 carries per game to 8.9 for the season. Dobbins led in carry share after the bye, when Baltimore removed Mark Ingram from the lead spot. But in their 9 shared contests after the bye, Dobbins led just 31.5% to 25.1%. And the 2 matched in targets over that span (10 total).
• Edwards also narrowly trailed Dobbins in yards after contact per attempt in 2020: 3.28 vs. 3.35, according to PFF. Both ranked among the position’s top 11.

Draft Sharks Bottom Line:

J.K. Dobbins brings much more upside as an athlete and all-around RB. But the limited sample we have to go on didn’t show Baltimore treating the 2 players that way. In fact, the Ravens extended Edwards just last June. We would much rather bet on the upside of Dobbins between them. But so would every fantasy player. That’s why there’s 12 rounds of difference between them in ADP as of this writing, and we’d bet on that continuing. That alone makes Dobbins overvalued and Edwards a solid-to-strong stash in WR5 range.