Bottom Line

One of the biggest surprises of 2022, Pacheco ended up leading the Chiefs in carries (170), rushing yards (830) and rushing TDs (5) as a seventh-round rookie.

The majority of that production came over the second half of the season, when Pacheco ranked 13th league wide in carries and fifth in rushing yards.

He played a minimal role in the passing game but still ranked 18th among RBs in PPR points and 14th in non-PPR points from Week 10 on.

Pacheco returns to the same backfield in 2023 alongside Jerick McKinnon and Clyde Edwards-Helaire, making him a good bet to play a similar role in his sophomore season.

What We Learned Last Year

• Pacheco was a seventh-round pick in the 2022 NFL Draft.
• He totaled just 2,442 yards and 18 TDs on 4.3 yards per carry aross four seasons on bad Rutgers offenses. But he boosted his stock with a 4.37-second 40 time at 216 pounds at the Combine. That gave him a 99th percentile Speed Score.
• Pacheco used a strong summer to earn a top-3 role in the Chiefs backfield to open his rookie season. He carried 44 times for 197 yards (4.5 YPC) over the first eight games of the season.
• Pacheco replaced Clyde Edwards-Helaire as Kansas City’s lead ball-carrier in Week 10. Over the final nine games of the regular season, he averaged:
  • 14.0 carries
  • 70.3 rushing yards
  • 0.4 rushing TDs
  • 1.2 targets
  • 1.1 catches
  • 13.0 receiving yards
• Pacheco ranked 13th in carries and fifth in rushing yards over that span.
• But he ranked 53rd among RBs in targets, 45th in catches, and 25th in receiving yards.
• Pacheco also played just 21% of the Chiefs’ snaps inside the red zone over those nine games, ceding most of that work to Jerick McKinnon (56% snaps). It’s worth noting, though, that both guys totaled 21 red-zone opportunities (carries + targets) during that stretch.
• Pacheco still ranked a solid 18th among RBs in PPR points and 14th in non-PPR points from Week 10 on.
• He slightly overachieved vs. his usage, ranking 22nd in expected PPR points and 17th in expected non-PPR points.
• Pacheco ranked eighth among 48 qualifying RBs in NFL Next Gen Stats’ Rush Yards Over Expected Per Attempt.
• From Week 10 on, he ranked 20th among 44 qualifiers in Pro Football Focus’ rushing grades and 32nd in Elusive Rating.
• On very limited opportunity, Pacheco ranked 15th among 88 qualifying RBs in Pro Football Focus’ receiving grades and 54th in yards per route run.

What to Expect in 2023

• The Chiefs return Clyde Edwards-Helaire and re-signed Jerick McKinnon to a one-year, $1.3 million contract in May. They didn’t make any significant additions to the backfield, though.
• That makes Pacheco the favorite to lead the 2023 Chiefs in carries.
• We’ll see if he can expand his pass-catching production. McKinnon was good in that department last year. And even Edwards-Helaire has a better receiving resume than Pacheco, who totaled only 47 receptions across four college seasons.
• The Chiefs have ranked top-15 in total RB PPR points in four of QB Patrick Mahomes’ five seasons, including a fifth-place finish last year. So there’s plenty of fantasy production to be had here.
• Pacheco underwent offseason surgeries on his hand and labrum. He missed OTAs, and HC Andy Reid didn’t have a timetable for Pacheco’s return when asked in early May.
• The Athletic's Nate Taylor said in late June that Pacheco is expected back by the "middle" of training camp. We’ll keep an eye on his recovery.