Isiah Pacheco's 2024 Projections & Outlook
Scoring
#37 Running Back
150.3 Projected Points
ADP |
Rush Atts |
Rush Yds |
Rush TDs |
100 |
Fum |
Rec |
Rec Yds |
Rec TDs |
Not Available |
149.2 |
670.5 |
5.33 |
1 |
1.4 |
28.5 |
189.1 |
1.11 |
DS 3D Projections
Bottom Line
Pacheco ranked 14th among RBs in PPR and non-PPR points per game last year. He was even better in seven games without RB Jerick McKinnon, posting a scoring average that would have ranked third at his position.
McKinnon remains unsigned as of now, leaving Clyde Edwards-Helaire as Kansas City’s No. 2 RB – and giving Pacheco legitimate RB1 upside in a high-scoring Chiefs offense.
Durability is a concern, but Pacheco is a value anywhere in Round 3 or beyond.
What We Learned Last Year
- Pacheco ranked 14th among RBs in both PPR and non-PPR points per game last year.
- He missed Weeks 14 and 15 with a shoulder injury and was held out of a meaningless regular-season finale.
- In his 14 games, Pacheco averaged:
- 14.6 carries
- 66.8 rushing yards
- 3.5 targets
- 3.1 catches
- 17.4 receiving yards
- 0.6 TDs
- He was even busier and more productive in seven games (including 3 playoff games) without RB Jerick McKinnon. In those, Pacheco averaged:
- 17.9 carries
- 82.1 rushing yards
- 3.7 targets
- 3.6 catches
- 15.6 receiving yards
- 1.1 TDs
- His 20.2 PPR points per game in those outings would have ranked third among RBs on the season.
- Pacheco’s usage equated to 18.8 expected PPR points per game, which would have ranked sixth at his position.
- Pacheco was effective as a runner last year. Among 49 RBs with 90+ carries, he ranked:
- 17th in yards after contact per attempt
- 27th in missed tackles forced per attempt
- 8th in NFL Next Gen Stats’ Rush Yards Over Expected Per Attempt
- 10th in Pro Football Focus rushing grade
- Pacheco ranked just 29th in yards per route run among 43 RBs with 30+ targets but ranked 11th in PFF receiving grade.
- Pacheco emerged over the second half of his 2022 rookie season, ranking 13th league-wide in carries and fifth in rushing yards.
- His 4.7 yards per carry over the last two years ranks 12th among 49 RBs with 200+ carries during that span.
What to Expect in 2024
- Jerick McKinnon remains unsigned as of now, giving Pacheco a RB1-level ceiling similar to what we saw in his seven games without McKinnon last year.
- The Chiefs’ RB depth chart behind Pacheco:
- Clyde Edwards-Helaire
- Deneric Prince
- Louis Rees-Zammit
- Keaontay Ingram
- The Chiefs have typically ranked in the top half of the league in total RB PPR points under HC Andy Reid and QB Patrick Mahomes:
- 2018 - 5th
- 2019 - 16th
- 2020 - 25th
- 2021 - 15th
- 2022 - 5th
- 2023 - 11th
- The 2023 Chiefs ranked 20th in Adjusted Line Yards and 18th in Pro Football Focus run-blocking grades
- They return four of five starters on the offensive line, opting to not re-sign LT Donovan Smith, who ranked 67th among 70 qualifying OTs in Pro Football Focus’ 2023 pass-blocking grades. He’ll be replaced by either 2023 third-round pick Wanya Morris or 2024 second-rounder Kingsley Suamataia.
- The biggest concern with Pacheco is durability.
- He underwent surgeries on his hand and shoulder shortly after the 2022 season.
- He re-injured that shoulder last year, had a clean-up procedure, and missed two games.
- Pacheco also suffered a concussion in Week 16, although he was cleared for Week 17.
- Our Injury Predictor gives him a 90.4% chance of injury this season and 3.40 projected games missed – both second most among RBs.