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Isiah Pacheco - Fantasy Points Outlook

Basic StatsIsiah Pacheco's Basic Stats

Isiah Pacheco
ADP: 6.3
Bye: 10
Experience: 1 Yr(s)
Age: 24.5
Height: 5'10"
Weight: 216
40 Time: 4.37
SPARQx (Rank): 133.90 (96%)
Burst Score (Rank): 115.10 (31%)
Agility Score (Rank): 11.36 (55%)
Three Cone Drill (Rank): 7.09

Isiah Pacheco's Weekly Outlook

Week 4 Projections
Rush Yds Rush TDs Rec Rec Yds Rec TDs Fantasy Pts
62.2 0.4 2.4 18 0.1 10.6
Weekly Writeup
Pacheco leads this Chiefs' RB committee with 35 carries so far in 2023. Given the strength of his offense, he should have a decent shot of returning value this week, though the Jets' defense ranks as the sixth-toughest matchup in adjusted fantasy points allowed to RBs. We view him as a low-end RB2 in lineups.

Rest Of Way Outlook

Rush Yds Rush TDs Rec Rec Yds Rec TDs Fantasy Pts
58.3 0.4 1.5 12.1 0.1 9.7

Isiah Pacheco's 2023 Projections & Outlook

Scoring

#25 Running Back

155.5 Projected Points

ADP Rush Atts Rush Yds Rush TDs 100 Fum Rec Rec Yds Rec TDs
6.3 198.7 933.2 6.9 2.1 2 24.5 193.5 0.9

3D Projections DS 3D Projections

Basic StatsIsiah Pacheco's Preseason Player Analysis

View RB Fantasy Rankings »
Bottom Line

One of the biggest surprises of 2022, Pacheco ended up leading the Chiefs in carries (170), rushing yards (830) and rushing TDs (5) as a seventh-round rookie.

The majority of that production came over the second half of the season, when Pacheco ranked 13th league wide in carries and fifth in rushing yards.

He played a minimal role in the passing game but still ranked 18th among RBs in PPR points and 14th in non-PPR points from Week 10 on.

Pacheco returns to the same backfield in 2023 alongside Jerick McKinnon and Clyde Edwards-Helaire, making him a good bet to play a similar role in his sophomore season.


What We Learned Last Year
  • Pacheco was a seventh-round pick in the 2022 NFL Draft.
  • He totaled just 2,442 yards and 18 TDs on 4.3 yards per carry aross four seasons on bad Rutgers offenses. But he boosted his stock with a 4.37-second 40 time at 216 pounds at the Combine. That gave him a 99th percentile Speed Score.
  • Pacheco used a strong summer to earn a top-3 role in the Chiefs backfield to open his rookie season. He carried 44 times for 197 yards (4.5 YPC) over the first eight games of the season.
  • Pacheco replaced Clyde Edwards-Helaire as Kansas City’s lead ball-carrier in Week 10. Over the final nine games of the regular season, he averaged:
    • 14.0 carries
    • 70.3 rushing yards
    • 0.4 rushing TDs
    • 1.2 targets
    • 1.1 catches
    • 13.0 receiving yards
  • Pacheco ranked 13th in carries and fifth in rushing yards over that span.
  • But he ranked 53rd among RBs in targets, 45th in catches, and 25th in receiving yards.
  • Pacheco also played just 21% of the Chiefs’ snaps inside the red zone over those nine games, ceding most of that work to Jerick McKinnon (56% snaps). It’s worth noting, though, that both guys totaled 21 red-zone opportunities (carries + targets) during that stretch.
  • Pacheco still ranked a solid 18th among RBs in PPR points and 14th in non-PPR points from Week 10 on.
  • He slightly overachieved vs. his usage, ranking 22nd in expected PPR points and 17th in expected non-PPR points.
  • Pacheco ranked eighth among 48 qualifying RBs in NFL Next Gen Stats’ Rush Yards Over Expected Per Attempt.
  • From Week 10 on, he ranked 20th among 44 qualifiers in Pro Football Focus’ rushing grades and 32nd in Elusive Rating.
  • On very limited opportunity, Pacheco ranked 15th among 88 qualifying RBs in Pro Football Focus’ receiving grades and 54th in yards per route run.

What to Expect in 2023
  • The Chiefs return Clyde Edwards-Helaire and re-signed Jerick McKinnon to a one-year, $1.3 million contract in May. They didn’t make any significant additions to the backfield, though.
  • That makes Pacheco the favorite to lead the 2023 Chiefs in carries.
  • We’ll see if he can expand his pass-catching production. McKinnon was good in that department last year. And even Edwards-Helaire has a better receiving resume than Pacheco, who totaled only 47 receptions across four college seasons.
  • The Chiefs have ranked top-15 in total RB PPR points in four of QB Patrick Mahomes’ five seasons, including a fifth-place finish last year. So there’s plenty of fantasy production to be had here.
  • Pacheco underwent offseason surgeries on his hand and labrum. He missed OTAs, and HC Andy Reid didn’t have a timetable for Pacheco’s return when asked in early May.
  • The Athletic's Nate Taylor said in late June that Pacheco is expected back by the "middle" of training camp. We’ll keep an eye on his recovery.

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Jerick McKinnon, RB KC

7:55pm EDT 9/24/23

Jerick McKinnon, all other Chiefs RBs good vs. the Bears

Chiefs RB Jerick McKinnon found the end zone twice in Week 3 with 3 catches for 19 yards as a receiver. Fellow RBs Isiah Pacheco and Clyde Edwards-Helaire also had success in the blowout victory vs. the Bears, recording 15 carries apiece for a combined 117 rushing yards. Both Pacheco and Edwards-Helaire had 1 rushing TD as well. This game was a total demolition, and it’s unlikely we’ll see this many points from all three Chiefs’ backs moving forward. We’ll look forward to starting Pacheco again in Week 4 vs. the Jets.

View all Jerick McKinnon Shark Bites »

Chiefs RB Isiah Pacheco (hamstring) is active for today’s game vs. the Bears. He got in limited practices on Thursday and Friday – and then reportedly looked and felt good enough in a Saturday workout to play today. This is a plus matchup against a bad Bears defense, but the hamstring adds risk to Pacheco’s fantasy profile. See where he lands in the Week 3 RB Rankings.

View all Isiah Pacheco Shark Bites »

Chiefs RB Isiah Pacheco (hamstring) is expected to play vs. the Bears on Sunday, per insider Jordan Schultz. "The team will re-evaluate in the morning just to be sure, but I’m told Pacheco had a good workout Saturday morning," Schultz tweets. Pacheco gets a pristine matchup as a big home favorite against a bad Chicago defense. But he missed a lot of time this offseason after a pair of surgeries and is now dealing with this hamstring, so it's tough to imagine Pacheco handling a huge workload tomorrow. See where he sits in the Week 3 RB Rankings.

View all Isiah Pacheco Shark Bites »

Chiefs RB Isiah Pacheco (hamstring) is listed as questionable for this weekend’s game vs. the Bears. He got in limited practices on Thursday and Friday. We’ll look for further updates on Pacheco’s status, but we won’t get Kansas City’s inactives until a little before 3 pm ET on Sunday. He’ll be a risk/reward RB2 play in this plus matchup if he ends up giving it a go.

View all Isiah Pacheco Shark Bites »

Chiefs RB Isiah Pacheco (hamstring) returned to a limited practice on Thursday. We'll see what he does on Friday and how he's listed on the final injury report. If healthy, Pacheco is in a great spot this weekend with the Chiefs huge home favorites against the Bears.

View all Isiah Pacheco Shark Bites »

Dynasty Overview View RB Dynasty Rankings »

Isiah Pacheco, RB KC
Dynasty MVP 115.5
Position Rank #20 RB
3yr Projection
5yr Projection
10yr Projection
380
594
1,008
Dynasty Write-up
Pacheco quickly went from a 7th-round rookie to Kansas City’s lead back. Now, he’ll need to clean up the fumbles. And his long-term receiving upside remains to be seen. But just watching Pacheco play, you can tell he has the juice and power to maximize opportunities. He should retain a similar role for 2023. We'll keep an eye on how he returns from offseason shoulder/hand surgeries.
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