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Jahmyr Gibbs - Fantasy Points Outlook

Basic StatsJahmyr Gibbs's Basic Stats

Jahmyr Gibbs
ADP: 1.12
Bye: 5
Experience: 1
Age: 22.3
Height: 5'9"
Weight: 200
40 Time: 4.36

Jahmyr Gibbs's Weekly Outlook

Week 1 Projections
Rush Yds Rush TDs Rec Rec Yds Rec TDs Fantasy Pts
59.3 0.52 3.3 23.9 0.17 12.3
Weekly Writeup

Rest Of Way Outlook

Rush Yds Rush TDs Rec Rec Yds Rec TDs Fantasy Pts
46.4 0.3 3.8 30.6 0.2 10.3

Jahmyr Gibbs's 2024 Projections & Outlook

Scoring

#6 Running Back

261.7 Projected Points

ADP Rush Atts Rush Yds Rush TDs 100 Fum Rec Rec Yds Rec TDs
1.12 206.5 1012.4 8.89 2.5 1.6 54.3 393.8 2.78

3D Projections DS 3D Projections

Basic StatsJahmyr Gibbs's Preseason Player Analysis

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Bottom Line

Gibbs started slowly as a rookie, lost two games to injury, and split backfield work with a RB who beat him in carries. And he still ranked eighth among all RBs in PPR points per game. The only problem is that the whole market’s optimistic. That has Gibbs going fourth at the position pretty consistently, and around the 1-2 turn in 1-QB formats. He becomes a better play the further he gets into Round 2.

What We Learned Last Year

  • Gibbs’ rookie year got off to a worrisome start. He played just 19 snaps in the Week 1 win at Kansas City (compared with 55 for David Montgomery) and logged eight carries or fewer in three of his first four games.
  • Gibbs and Montgomery each dealt with early-season injuries. Over their first seven healthy games together, Montgomery doubled Gibbs’ carry share: 57.8% to 28.9%.
  • Things evened out over the season’s second half, though. From Week 10 through the playoffs, Gibbs drew 40.2% carry share to Montgomery’s 48.8%. The rookie also more than doubled his backfield mate in target share: 12.3% to 4.95%.
  • Despite being the smaller half of the backfield combo, Gibbs also got work near the goal line. He trailed Montgomery in that department but ranked 14th among all RBs in carries inside the 10-yard line. Five of Gibbs’ 10 rushing scores came from inside the 5.
  • Both RBs benefited from one of the league’s best O-lines. Detroit tied San Francisco for first in adjusted line yards last season, according to FTN. That measures how much yardage per carry is attributable to the blocking.
  • The overall strength of the offense helps as well.
    • Detroit climbed from seventh in offensive DVOA in 2022 to fifth last year.
    • The Lions have also ranked 12th and second in total plays under OC Ben Johnson the past two years.
    • And they climbed from 25th in points and 22nd in total yards in 2021 to fifth in scoring each of the past two years; fourth and third in yards.
  • The Lions also lean run-friendly with their play calling. They ranked 25th in situation-neutral pass rate last year, according to RBSDM.com, and rank 25th over Johnson’s two seasons.

What to Expect in 2024

  • We see no reason to expect significant changes to one of last year’s best offenses.
  • From Week 10 through the end of the regular season, Gibbs tallied the seventh-most non-PPR points among RBs; fifth-most PPR points.
    • That was with Montgomery ranking ninth and 13th, respectively, over the same span.
  • Actually, the Lions hope to get even more from Gibbs in Year 2, especially as a receiver.
    • Scottie Montgomery, assistant HC and RBs coach, said in June: "What we need him to do from a passing game standpoint is go to that next level. I do think there's a certain difference between route running from the backfield and being a really, really sufficient, and efficient check-down runner vs. what it is to be a great route runner, a guy that can run all types of choice (routes). We know we've seen him do those things, but now can you go into the slot and do a little bit more down the field? Some intermediate stuff, can we continue to grow him there? And that's what we're trying to do."
  • Gibbs tied for just 25th in average depth of target last year among 61 RBs who drew at least 20 targets.
    • Only nine RBs sported an aDOT of 1.0 or deeper.
    • Just three cracked 2.0 yards:
      • Kyle Juszczyk 5.5
      • Ameer Abdullah 3.0
      • Saquon Barkley 2.3
  • Any depth that Gibbs adds to his receiving profile has the potential to significantly boost his production vs. the rest of the position.

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Jahmyr Gibbs, RB DET

10:32am EDT 5/16/24

More work coming for Jahmyr Gibbs

Lions GM Brad Holmes said in a recent appearance on The Rich Eisen Show that he expects RB Jahmyr Gibbs to see a bigger workload in 2024. Gibbs averaged 12.1 carries and 3.5 catches per game as a rookie last year. His share of backfield touches grew throughout the season, so it certainly makes sense that he'll get the rock more in year 2.

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The Lions and QB Jared Goff agreed to a four-year, $212 million extension with $170 million guaranteed. The $53 million annual salary makes Goff the league's second-highest player (for now), behind only QB Joe Burrow. The new deal keeps Goff under contract with Detroit through 2027 and includes an option for 2028, according to NFL Network's Tom Pelissero.

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Ben Johnson will remain with the Lions as OC for the 2024 season, according to NFL Network's Tom Pelissero. Johnson had been a hot name in this year's coaching cycle and had been linked to Washington's still-open job. His return is excellent news for Detroit's offense. The Lions lead the NFL with 387 total yards per game and rank fourth with 26.9 points per game under Johnson over the past two seasons.

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Lions RB Jahmyr Gibbs totaled 13 carries for 30 rushing yards and a TD in Week 18 vs. the Vikings. Though the rookie ultimately fell short of the 1,000 rushing yard mark in 2023, he posted tremendous numbers as a pass-catcher. Gibbs finishes the season ranked seventh in targets (71), tied for eighth in receptions (52), and 16th in receiving yards (316) among all RBs. His combination of rushing and receiving acumen in Detroit’s high-powered offense makes a very strong case for Gibbs to be considered among the elite RBs in dynasty formats entering his age-22 season in 2024.

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Lions HC Dan Campbell said Monday that he plans to play his starters in this weekend's regular-season finale vs. the Vikings. Detroit has won the NFC North, can't drop lower than the No. 3 seed in the NFC, and can only climb to No. 2 with a win plus a Cowboys loss to the Commanders and an Eagles loss to the Giants. "We want to use this as fuel," Campbell said. "I’ve got pure octane right now. I woke up and I’m ready, so we’re moving forward.” There's still some risk that the Lions pull key starters at some point during this game, especially if Dallas and Philadelphia have big leads. But we'll be projecting the starters for at least close to normal workloads in the Week 18 Rankings.

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Dynasty Overview View RB Dynasty Rankings »

Jahmyr Gibbs, RB DET
Dynasty MVP 182.7
Position Rank #5 RB
3yr Projection
5yr Projection
10yr Projection
576
951
1,659
Dynasty Write-up
Despite a slow start, Gibbs largely delivered as a rookie RB. He averaged 5.2 YPC and popped in 10 TDs on 182 attempts, adding 52 receptions. David Montgomery will stick around for another year. And we know OC Ben Johnson will, despite plenty of HC interest this cycle.
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