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Javonte Williams - Fantasy Points Outlook

Basic StatsJavonte Williams's Basic Stats

Javonte Williams
ADP: 7.8
Bye: 14
Experience: 3
Age: 24.1
Height: 5'10"
Weight: 220
40 Time: 4.62
SPARQx (Rank): 122.40 (82%)
Burst Score (Rank): 122.70 (72%)
Agility Score (Rank): 11.02 (90%)
Three Cone Drill (Rank): 6.93

Javonte Williams's Weekly Outlook

Week 1 Projections
Rush Yds Rush TDs Rec Rec Yds Rec TDs Fantasy Pts
58.2 0.42 2.5 17.5 0.11 10.4
Weekly Writeup

Rest Of Way Outlook

Rush Yds Rush TDs Rec Rec Yds Rec TDs Fantasy Pts
61.2 0.5 2.7 19.9 0.1 11.5

Javonte Williams's 2024 Projections & Outlook

Scoring

#18 Running Back

159.6 Projected Points

ADP Rush Atts Rush Yds Rush TDs 100 Fum Rec Rec Yds Rec TDs
7.8 209 881.3 6.35 1.6 1.5 37.8 264.2 1.66

3D Projections DS 3D Projections

Basic StatsJavonte Williams's Preseason Player Analysis

View RB Fantasy Rankings »

Bottom Line

Williams sports a wide range of outcomes in 2024.

If he can bounce back from an underwhelming 2023 season that might have been impacted by a serious 2022 knee injury, he should maintain lead duties in a Sean Payton-led offense that’s consistently produced strong fantasy scorers at RB.

But if Williams remains inefficient, he could find himself in a two or even three-RB committee and be tough to trust as a weekly fantasy starter.

He’s worth gambling on at RB3-level prices. Any more expensive than that and he becomes a risky pick.

What We Learned Last Year

  • Williams ran for 774 yards and three TDs across 16 games last year, adding 47 catches for 228 yards and two TDs.
  • He suffered a hip injury early in Week 4 and missed Week 5.
  • Williams’ scoring averages in 15 healthy games ranked:
    • 31st among RBs in PPR points
    • 33rd in half-PPR
    • 35th in non-PRR
  • Williams’ playing time, volume, and production climbed from Week 7 on. Over that stretch, he averaged 15.4 carries and 3.9 targets per game and scored as the:
    • RB18 in PPR points
    • RB23 in non-PPR
  • Williams was one of the least effective runners in the NFL last year. Among 49 RBs with 90+ carries, he ranked:
    • 41st in yards per carry
    • 42nd in NFL Next Gen Stats’ Rush Yards Over Expected Per Attempt
    • 36th in yards after contact per attempt
    • 38th in Pro Football Focus Elusive Rating
    • 45th in PFF rushing grade
  • He was better as a receiver. Although he averaged just 4.9 yards per catch, Williams caught 81% of his 58 targets and ranked 10th among 43 qualifying RBs in yards per route.
  • It’s certainly worth considering that Williams was returning last year from a nasty injury. He tore the ACL, LCL, and posterior lateral corner in his right knee on October 2, 2022. Williams was cleared for the start of training camp last summer, but it’s fair to wonder if the knee was still a factor throughout the season.
  • Williams was more effective in a healthy 2021 rookie season. Among 52 RBs with 90+ carries, he ranked:
    • 19th in yards per carry
    • 21st in NFL Next Gen Stats’ Rush Yards Over Expected Per Attempt
    • 7th in yards after contact per attempt
    • 5th in Pro Football Focus Elusive Rating
    • 21st in PFF rushing grade

What to Expect in 2024

  • Williams will likely need to be better – at least returning to his rookie-year form – in order to match last year’s volume.
  • HC Sean Payton has a long history of deploying two- and even three-RB committees. The Broncos return RBs Jaleel McLaughlin and Samaje Perine and added rookie RBs Audric Estime and Blake Watson.
  • That said, Payton’s offense has been good for RB fantasy production.
    • His lead back has topped 15.5 touches per game in 13 of 16 seasons, averaging 17.3 touches per game.
    • Payton produced a top-22 RB in PPR points per game in each of his first 15 seasons.
    • Although that streak was snapped last year (Williams finished 34th in PPR points per game), the Broncos as a team ranked sixth in total RB PPR points. That was largely fueled by 131 RB catches – 15 more than any other team.
  • The 2023 Broncos ranked:
    • 9th in run rate
    • 18th in carries
    • 21st in RB carries
    • 1st in RB catches
  • With rookie QB Bo Nix likely under center and an underwhelming group of WRs and TEs, the Broncos figure to remain a run-leaning offense in 2024. And the RBs should again be heavily involved in the passing game.
  • The 2023 Broncos ranked:
    • 4th in Pro Football Focus run-blocking grade
    • 14th in Adjusted Lined Yards
  • They return four of five starters on the offensive line this year, with C Lloyd Cushenberry departing for Tennessee in free agency. He ranked 13th among 32 qualifying Cs in PFF’s 2023 run-blocking grades. It’s unclear who will replace Cushenberry, but this still projects to be an above-average O-line in 2024.

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Recent Shark Bites View All Shark Bites »

Javonte Williams, RB DEN

2:51pm EDT 5/13/24

Broncos backfield an open competition

Broncos HC Sean Payton said recently that his backfield is an open competition heading into the season. "All these guys, they're all competing for different roles, spots," Payton said. "We never put a cap on what they're competing for. I wanna see it. And then we'll go by what we see."

View Full Story »

The Broncos selected Notre Dame RB Audric Estime in Round 4 of the NFL Draft. A four-star prospect, Estime chose Notre Dame over others like Maryland, Rutgers, Virginia, and Nebraska. After a quiet freshman season behind Kyren Williams, the New York native split carries in 2022. The result? Team-highs in yards (920), yards per carry (5.9), and TDs (11). His production then rose across the board last fall. He flashed top-notch power with 4.27 yards after contact per attempt and tallied a strong Elusive Rating from PFF (126.5). The raw numbers turned up several career highs (209 carries, 1,341 yards, 18 TDs). While Estime caught all 26 of his college targets, we don’t forecast much of a receiving ceiling in the NFL. He also lacks the top-end speed to rip off explosives at the next level. Estime’s 4.71 forty-time at the NFL Combine was disappointing, but his Relative Athletic Score of 6.58 shows the strength of his complete profile. At 221 pounds, he tallied an 86th-percentile vertical and an 87th-percentile broad jump. Also note: Estime’s ten-yard split placed him in the 53rd percentile. The rookie joins a crowded backfield in Denver alongside Javonte Williams, Jaleel McLaughlin, and Samaje Perine – although Williams and Perine are both scheduled to be free agents next offseason.

View all Audric Estime Shark Bites »

Dynasty Overview View RB Dynasty Rankings »

Javonte Williams, RB DEN
Dynasty MVP 84.9
Position Rank #33 RB
3yr Projection
5yr Projection
10yr Projection
293
441
685
Dynasty Write-up
Williams entered 2022 with enormous expectations. But only four games in, he suffered an ACL/LCL tear in his right knee. He was rarely unleashed in Year 3 under new HC Sean Payton. Set for a full, healthy offseason in 2024, we remain optimistic on Williams' short-term prospects.
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