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Waddle joins Denver after a solid but unspectacular 2025 that included strong underlying efficiency on a struggling Dolphins offense. He now lands in a pass-leaning Sean Payton attack that ranked third in plays per game, and Denver’s investment of first- and third-round picks gives him a real shot to become the team’s No. 1 WR. That ceiling makes him a solid value at a spring best-ball ADP of WR24.
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Waddle caught 64 balls on 100 targets for 910 yards and 6 TDs across 16 games last year (Waddle missed most of Week 17 with a rib injury sustained in the second quarter against the Buccaneers). Through Week 16 last year, he finished:
He posted three top-12 weekly finishes and seven top-24 finishes. But Waddle also finished outside the top 36 seven times.
That made him a useful but inconsistent fantasy starter.
Waddle drew a 22.9% target share through Week 16 last season. In 11 full games without Tyreek Hill, that climbed to 24.5%.
He worked downfield often, with his 13.2-yard average depth of target ranking 18th among 76 qualifying WRs. Waddle’s 38.7% air-yards share ranked fourth.
Waddle has commanded solid target shares throughout his career, reaching 20+% in four of five seasons:
Sharing an offense with Tyreek Hill since 2022 helped keep those shares from climbing higher.
Waddle also played a full-time role in 2025, registering a 93.9% route rate. He lined up wide on 76.5% of his snaps and in the slot 23.0% of the time, giving Denver flexibility in how to deploy him.
Waddle’s fantasy production undersold the quality of his 2025 play.
Among 76 WRs with 50+ targets, he ranked:
Those marks also lined up with most of his career. The table below reveals 2024 as the outlier, which makes sense given that Waddle dealt with a late-season knee injury and lost QB Tua Tagovailoa for six games:
YPRR | TPRR | PFF Grade | |
2021 | 1.74 (32nd) | 0.25 (20th) | 78.5 (20th) |
2022 | 2.59 (Third) | 0.23 (30th) | 85.0 (11th) |
2023 | 2.63 (Sixth) | 0.30 (Fourth) | 90.7 (Fifth) |
2024 | 1.53 (52nd) | 0.19 (61st) | 71.5 (50th) |
2025 | 2.19 (14th) | 0.26 (12th) | 84.0 (12th) |
That history matters on a new team that clearly paid to feature him.
Waddle ranked well ahead of new teammate Courtland Sutton in the these metrics last year. Sutton finished 30th in PFF receiving grade, 35th in yards per route run, and 34th in targets per route run.
Waddle’s TD production ran close to expectation last year. He posted a 9.4% TD rate vs. an 8.6% expected rate. That followed a 2024 season in which he underachieved badly, scoring on just 3.4% of targets vs. an 8.1% expected rate.
Denver’s offense presents strong passing volume.
The Broncos ranked third in plays per game, ninth in pass rate, and 10th in pass rate over expected last season. QB Bo Nix led the league with 612 pass attempts.
That volume made up for lags in efficiency. Denver ranked 25th in yards per pass attempt, while Nix ranked 32nd among qualifying QBs in yards per attempt and 30th in completion rate over expected.
Denver’s pass volume should give Waddle enough chances to matter weekly, especially if his target-earning ability carries over from the Dolphins. And the Broncos likely targeted the speedy wideout to help those efficiency issues.
Waddle should immediately compete with Courtland Sutton for the team target lead.
Sutton is coming off a 125-target, 1,017-yard season and still profiles as a strong X boundary and red-zone WR. Waddle primarily played the Z WR role in Miami and figured to do the same in Denver. They can certainly compliment each other.
Waddle better than Sutton last year by most efficiency metrics, including yards per route run, PFF receiving grade, and targets per route run.
They also return young WR depth with Troy Franklin, Marvin Mims, and Pat Bryant.
Evan Engram also projects for a meaningful underneath role after seeing 77 targets in 16 games last season.
Waddle could certainly become Denver's No. 1 WR after the Broncos traded a first- and third-round pick for him this offseason. His talent and efficiency give him the best chance on the roster to earn volume through separation.
QB Bo Nix finished last season:
The efficiency still needs work. Nix ranked 32nd in yards per attempt and 30th in completion percentage over expected.
But Denver’s pass volume and pace should still boost weekly target opportunities.
Sean Payton has consistently built fantasy-friendly offenses throughout his coaching career, including in Denver.
Payton has gradually shifted the Broncos toward a faster, more pass-leaning offense over the last three seasons:
Plays | Pace | Pass Rate | Neutral Pass Rate | Pass Rate Over Expected | |
2023 | 59.8 | 29th | 55.6% | 55.9% | -1.1% |
2024 | 62.1 | 15th | 56.3% | 58.0% | +3.3% |
2025 | 64.2 | 13th | 58.2% | 58.2% | +5.5% |
Even with Dobbins healthy through the first 10 weeks, Denver still leaned pass-heavy:
Payton’s history suggests Denver could continue trending further toward the pass and a faster pace in 2026.
His ceiling case starts with Waddle becoming Denver’s target leader over Sutton.
That seems likely. Waddle beat Sutton last year in PFF receiving grade, yards per route run, and targets per route run. He also commanded a 24.5% target share in 11 full games without Tyreek Hill.
If Waddle earns something close to that share in Denver’s high-volume passing game, he could push into high-end WR2 territory.
He’d also benefit if Nix improves as a downfield passer. Waddle ranked fourth among WRs in air-yards share last year and averaged 14.2 yards per catch, so the big-play upside is there.
Waddle’s efficiency doesn’t guarantee he becomes Denver’s No. 1 WR. He could still settle in as the No. 2 WR behind Sutton despite the draft capital invested in him.
Sutton is coming off a 1,017-yard season and ranked ninth among WRs in air-yards share. Engram presents another underneath target, and Denver also fed RBs heavily in the passing game.
A new scheme could also leave Waddle in a different role than he had in Miami, more complementary piece than Denver's new No. 1.
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