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J.D. McKissic - Fantasy Points Outlook

Basic Stats Basic Stats

J.D. McKissic
WAS

RB WAS

#51 Running Back

81 Projected Points

ADP: Not Available
Bye: 9
Experience: 5 Yr(s)
Age: 28
Height: 5'10"
Weight: 190
40 Time: 4.57

Weekly Outlook

3d Projection

High Floor

5.1

DS Projection

6.5

Consensus

38 other sites
6

Low Ceiling

8.6

Rest of
Season

6.8

Week 7 Projections
Rush Yds Rush TDs Rec Rec Yds Rec TDs Fantasy Pts
19.8 0.1 4.2 33.2 0.1 6.5
Weekly Writeup
McKissic set season highs last week in carries, rushing yards, targets, receptions, receiving yards and playing time -- as Antonio Gibson saw his smallest snap share of the season. Gibson's shaky health adds upside, as does Green Bay arriving as 9.5-point favorite this week.

Rest Of Way Outlook

Rush Yds Rush TDs Rec Rec Yds Rec TDs Fantasy Pts
25 0.1 3.2 25 0.2 6.8
Week 3
After an impressive showing Thursday night against the Giants, McKissic massively underwhelmed against Buffalo. He saw just 5 total opportunities, gaining 23 yards on his 3 carries and adding 15 yards on his 2 receptions.

This usage or lack thereof is a bit of a head scratcher. With Washington being down for a large part of the game, many would assume McKissic would get plenty of run. And it's not from a lack of being on the field either. McKissic was on the field 46.3% of time compared to 57.4% for Antonio Gibson.

McKissic will have his time to shine in PPR leagues via work in the passing game, but be ready for underwhelming performances like we saw in Week 3. He does not possess the safe floor some other similar role RBs do.
Week 2
McKissic continues to play a vital role in the Washington offense, totaling 93 scrimmage yards and a rushing TD just before half. He cracked off a huge 56-yard reception—one of 5 receptions on the day—that set up a late TD to give Washington the lead. Despite the successes, he was out-touched by Antonio Gibson 15-9. McKissic’s value has always been in PPR leagues, and he paid that off again last week. The situation is still a bit too volatile to trust him on a regular basis, but it is encouraging to see him getting his looks with new QB Taylor Heinicke under center. A tough matchup in Buffalo this weekend could actually work in his favor as the Bills will surely look to shut down the run early on.

Basic Stats Preseason Player Analysis

What You Need to Know:

  • McKissic fell into the perfect situation for compiling targets in 2020. Before the Week 8 bye, he drew 13.6% of team targets. That share would have ranked 5th at the position for the year. But McKissic got even more as the year went on.
  • Injuries at WR and Alex Smith’s emergence as starter boosted McKissic’s looks. He got 19.9% of post-bye targets -- 20.8% in games shared with Antonio Gibson (who dealt with turf toe late in the season.
  • By year end, McKissic’s 110 targets led all RBs -- 3 ahead of #2 Alvin Kamara and 33 ahead of #3 Nyheim Hines.
  • Football Outsiders ranked him just 28th in receiving DYAR among 50 qualifying RBs, 37th in DVOA (with a rating below the average player at the position).
  • Pro Football Focus graded McKissic 37th among 154 RBs in receiving; 20th among the 61 backs with 20+ targets.
  • In his 5th season since entering the NFL as an undrafted free agent, McKissic topped his previous high in carries by 39 and his previous target high by 46. Each of those marks had been set with the Seahawks in 2017.
  • McKissic is heading into his age-28 season with his 3rd NFL team.
  • He has averaged a ho-hum 7.4 yards per catch for his career.
  • McKissic caught 289 balls across 4 seasons as a WR at Arkansas State. He averaged just 9.8 yards per reception for his career there and topped out at 18 carries. He did lead 3 of his 4 offenses in receptions.
  • His time spent at WR increased while backfield time decreased in 2nd half of 2020. Here’s the breakdown, according to PFF snap counts ...
    • First 6 games: 78.9% in backfield, 10.1% slot, 11.1% wide
    • Final 11 games: 61.7% backfield, 21.7% slot, 16.7% wide
    • Final 7 games with Antonio Gibson: 52.1% backfield, 30.3% slot, 17.6% wide
  • Washington signed Curtis Samuel in free agency and drafted Dyami Brown to upgrade the WR corps. New QB Ryan Fitzpatrick has also proved more willing to throw downfield than Alex Smith.
  • HC Ron Rivera says undrafted rookie RB Jaret Patterson reminds him of Darren Sproles, who played for the Chargers all 4 seasons that Rivera spent on the defensive staff. That could mean a receiving role if Patterson makes the team.

Draft Sharks Bottom Line:

McKissic’s out-of-nowhere RB16 finish in 2020 was just about being in the right place at the right time. His production came totally via target volume, most among all RBs. If his role comes anywhere close to that this season, it’ll be bad news for Washington. Expect a huge drop in target volume for the lackluster veteran. If you want to pick McKissic late in a PPR draft, we won’t fight you too hard. But don’t use 2020 as the template for his upside going forward.



Recent Shark Bites View All Shark Bites »

Seahawks RB J.D. McKissic suffered a Jones Fracture in his foot in practice, ESPN's Adam Schefter reports. Schefter adds that McKissic is expected to be sidelined 4-6 weeks, but we've seen this injury cause long-term complications. McKissic was battling C.J. Prosise for a pass-catching role in Seattle's backfield but obviously won't be an early-season factor now.

View all J.D. McKissic Shark Bites »

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