J.D. McKissic - Fantasy Points Outlook

What You Need to Know:

• McKissic lost some target share in his 2nd Washington season. Teammate injuries helped boost him to a robust 17.5% in 2020. That number slipped to 14.4% last season, over his 11 healthy games.
• McKissic’s 4.8 targets per game still ranked 7th among RBs.
• Carson Wentz doesn’t look like he’s good for RB target counts. His first 4 Eagles teams (2016-19) all targeted RBs on less than 19% of attempts. Eagles RBs garnered 21.8% target share in 2020 (the year Wentz lost the job), and then last year’s group hit 21.5%. The Colts, meanwhile, went from 24.3% RB target share in 2020 to 21.7% with Wentz.
• Those are small samples and could certainly be more coincidence than Wentz effect.
• Wentz does like to move around the pocket and throw downfield. But he also scrambles at a lower rate than Taylor Heinicke did last year. According to Pro Football Focus, Heinicke scrambled on 7.3% of his dropbacks in 2021. Wentz hit 4.7%, a rate he has exceeded just 1 time in his career (2017). His career scramble rate: 4.3%.
• Those types of plays can also turn into RB checkdowns.
• McKissic needs those receptions to stick around, because he ranks just 82nd among RBs in carries per game over the past 2 years.
• In addition to keeping McKissic from leaving for Buffalo in free agency, Buffalo also drafted RB Brian Robinson in Round 3.

Draft Sharks Bottom Line:

There’s room for McKissic to factor into the replacement plan if Logan Thomas isn’t ready early in the season coming off his December ACL tear. Otherwise, a tenuous situation for McKissic’s fantasy upside got more challenging with the addition of another 3rd-round RB. And the new QB probably isn’t an upgrade for his target count, especially when you also factor in the arrival of WR Jahan Dotson and WR Curtis Samuel’s return from a groin injury. McKissic has a place in the double-digit rounds of PPR best-ball drafts. But he’s not a prospect worth getting excited about in any fantasy format.