Bottom Line

McKinnon was awesome over the final 10 games of last season, ranking top-2 among RBs in targets, catches, receiving yards, and receiving TDs. He ranked fifth among RBs in PPR points and ninth in non-PPR points over that span.

He’s due for TD regression in 2023 after scoring eight times on 43 catches over those last 10 games.

But McKinnon looks like the favorite for primary pass-catching duties in Kansas City again, with only Isiah Pacheco and Clyde Edwards-Helaire to fend off.

If he keeps it, McKinnon will again be a valuable asset, especially in PPR leagues.

What We Learned Last Year

• McKinnon opened last season in a bit role behind Clyde Edwards-Helaire and Isiah Pacheco, averaging just 4.1 carries and 2.4 targets over the first seven games.
• McKinnon replaced Edwards-Helaire as Kansas City’s primary pass-catching back over the final 10 games. His per-game averages during that stretch:
  • 4.3 carries
  • 17.2 rushing yards
  • 0.1 rushing TDs
  • 5.4 targets
  • 4.3 catches
  • 39.6 receiving yards
  • 0.8 receiving TDs
• McKinnon ranked fifth among RBs in PPR points and ninth in non-PPR points over that span.
• He ranked:
  • second among RBs in targets
  • second in catches
  • first in receiving yards
  • first in receiving scores
  • eighth among 43 qualifiers in Pro Football Focus receiving grade
  • 10th among 43 qualifiers in yards per route run
• McKinnon drew a 14.0% target share in those final 10 games.
• He also played a big role in the red zone, playing 56% of Kansas City’s snaps inside the 20-yard line and drawing 25 red-zone opportunities (carries + targets) – tied for eighth most among RBs.

What to Expect in 2023

• The Chiefs re-signed McKinnon to a one-year, $1.3 million contract in May – a similar deal to the one he played on last year.
• Isiah Pacheco and Clyde Edwards-Helaire return. It’s the same backfield in Kansas City as last year.
• Consider McKinnon the favorite to handle passing-down work again in 2023. We’ll see if Edwards-Helaire rebounds, or if Pacheco earns more targets in his second NFL season.
• McKinnon will be hard-pressed to match last year’s TD production. He scored on 18.6% of his catches over those final 10 games. The league-wide RB receiving TD rate over the last three seasons is 3.9%.
• McKinnon registered 4.0 expected receiving TDs based on his usage in those final 10 games.
• He ranked 25th among RBs in expected PPR points per game during that stretch; 42nd in expected non-PPR points per game.