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Josh Jacobs - Fantasy Points Outlook

Basic StatsJosh Jacobs's Basic Stats

Josh Jacobs
ADP: 3.5
Bye: 10
Experience: 5
Age: 26.3
Height: 5'10"
Weight: 223
40 Time: 4.69

Burst Score (Rank): 115.50 (35%)

Josh Jacobs's Weekly Outlook

Week 1 Projections
Rush Yds Rush TDs Rec Rec Yds Rec TDs Fantasy Pts
63.3 0.54 2.7 19.8 0.05 11.7
Weekly Writeup

Rest Of Way Outlook

Rush Yds Rush TDs Rec Rec Yds Rec TDs Fantasy Pts
81.5 0.6 2.8 20.7 0.1 13.9

Josh Jacobs's 2024 Projections & Outlook

Scoring

#14 Running Back

215.3 Projected Points

ADP Rush Atts Rush Yds Rush TDs 100 Fum Rec Rec Yds Rec TDs
3.5 226.5 949.5 8.1 3 1.5 40.5 297 0.75

3D Projections DS 3D Projections

Basic StatsJosh Jacobs's Preseason Player Analysis

View RB Fantasy Rankings »

Bottom Line

We know what Jacobs can do. We know that Green Bay has been a good situation for RBs. What we don’t know is exactly how the Packers will split work among RBs and how well Jacobs can bounce back from a rough 2023. An early RB12 ADP presents some risk, but that’s limited a bit by the market pushing all RBs later in drafts. Jacobs is ultimately an OK bet at cost – not a specific draft target.

What We Learned Last Year

  • Last season was not kind to Jacobs after his huge 2022.
    • He posted a career-low 3.5 yards per carry, fresh off a career-high 4.9.
    • Jacobs did tally his second-most yards per catch but saw his receptions per game decline for the second straight season.
    • His 2.35 yards after contact per carry were easily the fewest of his career, according to Pro Football Focus. That mark tied for 53rd among 59 RBs with 70+ carries.
    • Jacobs forced missed tackles at a drastically lower rate.
    • His minus-0.37 rush yards over expected per attempt ranked ninth-worst among 49 qualifiers, according to NFL Next Gen Stats. The year before found him 11th-best in that category.
  • The offense didn’t help. Las Vegas ranked just 27th in total DVOA.
  • Jacobs lost the final four games of the season to a quad injury.
    • It marked his second straight season with a quad issue, though Jacobs didn’t miss any games in 2022.
    • He also appeared as questionable on the injury report that season with hip and calf issues at other times.
  • The Raiders let Jacobs hit the open market after franchise-tagging him for 2023 and watched him walk ahead of his age-26 season.

What to Expect in 2024

  • Jacobs goes from last year’s No. 27 offense in DVOA to the No. 6 unit. That should help the lead RB, and it’s pretty clear that’s what Green Bay wants him to be.
  • The Packers gave him $48 million on a four-year contract, with $12.5 million of that guaranteed. The deal gives the team an out after this year if things aren’t working, but it also gives Jacobs the fifth-highest annual average of any RB in the league.
  • HC Matt LaFleur has given us a few interesting tidbits on Jacobs’ arrival, though, that need to factor into expectations …
    • First, it certainly doesn’t sound like LaFleur drove the Jacobs acquisition, which came almost immediately after the release of Aaron Jones: “It kind of caught me off-guard, to be honest. Certainly I knew there was some other things in play with Aaron Jones. I didn’t quite know how everything was going to go. It just happened really fast on that Monday. [Management] came down when they were allowed to start to talk to those guys. … I don’t know all the details to that. I’m not involved in those types of conversations.”
    • LaFleur has complimented Jacobs’ all-around skill set: “I just think when you look at his body of work, his play style, his running style, he’ll excel (in all situations). There are some things we can do in the pass game as well, get him out of the backfield.”
      • And later: “I think he is very capable of being a high-volume feature back, where he’s getting a bulk of the carries, but we’ll see how it plays out.”
    • But the coach has also told us he prefers not to overload a single player: “Philosophically, no matter who the runner is, typically, we like to platoon those guys, whether it’s two guys or three guys. I just think it allows the running backs to stay fresh throughout the duration of the season. … Then, when it gets down to the end of it, you’ve got to roll with whoever you feel gives you the best opportunity to win games.”
  • Over his five seasons with LaFleur (ages 25-29), here were Jones’ touch-per-game averages:
    • 2019: 17.9
    • 2020: 17.8
    • 2021: 14.9
    • 2022: 16.0
    • 2023: 15.6
  • Last year’s 15.6 touches per game tied Jones for 25th in the league among RBs. Injury affected that some, but we also saw AJ Dillon’s impact decrease amid poor performance.
    • His high of 17.9 touches per game would have ranked 13th among RBs last season.
  • In addition to bringing in Jacobs, the Packers drafted RB MarShawn Lloyd in Round 3. That made him the fourth RB off the board, enough draft capital to indicate the Packers like him.
    • Here’s what OC Adam Stenavich said in early May: “I would like to get him out there as much as possible. … It’ll be nice to get him the ball in space and just see what he can do. I think he’s gonna add a good explosive element to the offense, for sure.”
    • LaFleur has also called Lloyd a “matchup nightmare.”
  • The team also brought back Dillon. The Packers did so for the minimum amount, which obviously doesn’t guarantee any significant work. But LaFleur had interesting things to say after the re-signing:
    • “AJ is another guy that I think can be a high-volume guy. Unfortunately, this year, he battled through a lot of (injury) stuff throughout the course of the season, but I thought just from the things he was able to bring from a pass-protection standpoint this year, this was his best year at pass pro. I think there’s some versatility we can start to use with him moving forward, and start to use him more as a movable piece, not just a tailback.”
  • That makes three RBs with pass-game potential and a coach who says he prefers to use multiple backs. This looks like a fluid usage situation that we’ll have to watch for hints throughout summer – and likely continue to assess into the regular season.
  • Of course, the biggest question for Jacobs might not be how the Packers use him. He needs to rebound from the 2023 downturn. If he can stay healthy, the situation should help.
    • Packers RBs ranked just 27th in PPR points last year but fared much better across LaFleur’s first four seasons:
      • 2019: sixth
      • 2020: seventh
      • 2021: 10th
      • 2022: eighth

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Recent Shark Bites View All Shark Bites »

Josh Jacobs, RB GB

9:58am EDT 5/30/24

Packers sticking with committee backfield?

The Packers gave RB Josh Jacobs a big four-year, $48 million deal in free agency. But HC Matt LaFleur suggested on Wednesday that the team might stick with a RB-by-committee approach this season.

View Full Story »

The Packers "see shades of Aaron Jones" in rookie RB MarShawn Lloyd, according to ESPN's Jeremy Fowler. "Not only with his rushing ability, but his ability to catch passes out of the backfield," Fowler said. "So, the expectation is they're going to get him acclimated pretty early, try to use him a lot." Lloyd caught just 34 passes over his final three college seasons but averaged 13.3 yards per catch. The 220-pounder clocked a 4.46-second 40 time at the Combine, so he brings plenty of juice. We're not expecting Lloyd to see enough work behind Josh Jacobs to be a reliable fantasy play. But a Jacobs injury could turn the rookie into an exciting weekly starter.

View all MarShawn Lloyd Shark Bites »

The Packers re-signed RB A.J. Dillon to a one-year deal, according to NFL Network's Tom Pelissero. Dillon didn't seem to garner much interest on the open market after averaging a career-low 3.4 yards per carry last year. He'll return to Green Bay as a clear backup behind RB Josh Jacobs, who inked a four-year, $48 million deal earlier this week.

View all A.J. Dillon Shark Bites »

NFL Network's Ian Rapoport reports that the Packers are expected to sign RB Josh Jacobs. It's a surprising development. Green Bay has been set to let RB AJ Dillon walk in free agency but had been talking with RB Aaron Jones to adjust his contract. This move could signal those talks have broken down and Jones will move on. That said, the Packers might also envision a potential Jacobs-Jones backfield. Either way, a healthy Jacobs should rebound vs. last year's struggles -- especially in a better offense. He sports upside into the top 12 at the position. Whether Jacobs' Underdog Fantasy ADP rises higher than its current RB14 level will likely depend on Jones' situation. Jacobs is worth a look in best ball drafts right now while the market tries to sort all that out. The Raiders, meanwhile, appear to have Zamir White in line to take over the lead job. He filled in admirably over the final four games last season and would be a fine fantasy option if he reaches the regular season in that role. There's still, of course, room for the Raiders to address their backfield in free agency and/or the draft. And it's worth remembering that White was a fourth-round pick who barely saw the field until Week 15 of his second season. Gauge your dynasty league to see if there's excitement over his opportunity and consider trading White if you can get a good return.

View all Josh Jacobs Shark Bites »

Dynasty Overview View RB Dynasty Rankings »

Josh Jacobs, RB GB
Dynasty MVP 93.7
Position Rank #31 RB
3yr Projection
5yr Projection
10yr Projection
338
495
693
Dynasty Write-up
The Raiders declined Jacobs’ 5th-year option in 2022, then watched him enjoy his most productive year as a pro. He took a step back in 2023 while playing under the franchise tag, but he was utilized heavily under interim HC Antonio Pierce. He inked a 4-year deal with Green Bay, where we expect him to be among the busiest RBs league-wide in the short term.
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