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Julio Jones - Fantasy Points Outlook

Basic Stats Basic Stats

Julio Jones
TEN

WR TEN

#20 Wide Receiver

147 Projected Points

ADP: Not Available
Bye: 13
Experience: 10 Yr(s)
Age: 32
Height: 6'3"
Weight: 220
40 Time: 4.34

Weekly Outlook

3d Projection

Low Floor

4.3

DS Projection

7.9

Consensus

38 other sites
8

High Ceiling

12.6

Rest of
Season

8.4

Week 6 Projections
Rec Rec Yds Rec TDs Fantasy Pts
4.2 61.1 0.3 7.9
Weekly Writeup
Jones put in a full practice on Thursday, putting him in line to return on Monday night. Buffalo's suppressed WR production thus far, but Jones should see 6-8+ targets if he makes it through the game.

Rest Of Way Outlook

Rec Rec Yds Rec TDs Fantasy Pts
4 60 0.4 8.4
Week 3
Sunday was weird for Jones. He played just 50% of the offensive snaps and wound up tied with Nick Westbrook-Ikhine and Geoff Swaim for the team target lead at just 4. Jones caught 3 for 47 yards.

Afterward, HC Mike Vrabel wouldn’t say what limited Jones’ playing time. It has since emerged that he’s getting treatment for a leg injury. The Titans don’t yet know if he or A.J. Brown will be available for Week 4.

We’ll have to wait to learn more on this situation before judging Jones for Week 4 and beyond. If he makes it back and finds Brown out, Jones should be in for a nice target share.
Week 2
Jones turned back the clock in week 2, dominating the Seahawks secondary for a 6-128 line. Julio’s day could have been even bigger if his TD wasn’t called back. The great news for Julio owners is he looked to find his connection with QB Ryan Tannehill as his 8 targets only trailed A.J. Brown on the week. This, along with his usage of running a route on nearly 90% of Tannehill’s drop-backs, should keep him fantasy viable.
This week Julio is immediately back on the WR2 radar as he will go up against a Colts secondary that has allowed the 6th most PPR fantasy points to WR so far in 2021.
Week 1
Jones was underwhelming in his Titans debut. He caught 3 of his 6 targets for 29 yards. He was tied for 2nd on the team in targets with Chester Rogers. It's clearly early, but the connection between him and QB Ryan Tannehill has not found its stride yet. Going forward, things should improve immensely, as we don't believe Jones' tank is empty. Look for a rebound this week at Seattle.

Basic Stats Preseason Player Analysis

What You Need to Know:

  • Jones was traded to the Titans in June. Tennessee received Jones and a 2023 6th-round pick in exchange for a 2022 2nd-rounder and a 2023 4th.
  • Jones turned 32 in February.
  • But he’s remained excellent when on the field. Among 87 WRs with 50+ targets last year, Jones ranked 3rd in yards per target and 4th in yards per route run. He finished 28th and 5th out of 80 qualifiers in 2019.
  • Jones played 15 games in 2019 and ranked 3rd among WRs in PPR points and 5th in non-PPR. His scoring average in 7 healthy games last year would have ranked 4th in both PPR and non-PPR.
  • Durability has always been a problem for Jones. He missed 7 games and most of 2 others last year with a lingering left hamstring injury. He missed 1 game in 2019, 2 in 2016, 1 in 2014, 11 in 2013 and 3 in 2011. That’s 25 games missed over 10 NFL seasons.
  • Jones heads from a Falcons offense that ranked 8th in pass rate and 4th in pass attempts last year to a Titans offense that ranked 30th in both pass rate and attempts. Atlanta threw it 143 times more than Tennessee in 2020.
  • The good news: The Titans’ passing game was efficient last year, ranking 7th in yards per attempt and 4th in TD rate. They finished 23rd in passing yards but 8th in TDs.
  • The offseason departures of WR Corey Davis, WR Adam Humphries and TE Jonnu Smith leave behind 192 targets (a 40% share) from last year.
    • Davis, who Jones will basically be replacing, garnered 92 targets in 14 games. That’s 6.6 targets per game -- a full-season pace of 105 that would have ranked 32nd among WRs last year.
    • Davis saw a 22.1% target share in his 14 games.
  • There’s also a chance the Titans’ pass volume grows this year. Their run-heavy attack last season was partly by design. But going 11-5 and trailing for only 42% of offensive snaps helped boost the run rate. Consider this: Tennessee threw the ball on just 41% of their snaps when leading but 56% when trailing last year. So if they’re trailing more this year -- and Vegas has their over/under win total set at 9 -- the pass rate figures to climb.
  • The Titans lost OC and play-caller Arthur Smith, who took Atlanta’s HC job. He’ll be replaced by Todd Downing. He spent the past 2 seasons as Tennessee’s TE coach, so the team is looking for continuity in scheme. But Downing has just 1 season of NFL OC experience. That came back in 2017 with the Raiders, who finished 17th in total yards and 23rd in points.

Draft Sharks Bottom Line:

You know about Jones’ injury issues. And those aren’t likely to go away now that he’s 32.

But Jones has also remained dominant when on the field, performing as a top-5 WR in terms of efficiency and fantasy production over the past 2 seasons.

The concern in Tennessee is volume. The Titans ranked 3rd-to-last in both pass rate and pass attempts last season. We’re expecting them to throw it more in 2021 -- but not nearly as much as Jones’ old team did. And with A.J. Brown on the other side of the field, Jones won’t dominate targets.

It leaves him as a lower-end WR2 -- albeit one with a lofty weekly ceiling.

Recent Shark Bites View All Shark Bites »

Titans WR Julio Jones (hamstring) put in a full week of practice and isn't listed on the final report. That suggests Jones should be ready to step back into a full-time role against the Bills on Monday night. There's added risk in his 1st game back off a 2-week absence, though. And the matchup is tough vs. Buffalo's 2nd-ranked WR defense.

View all Julio Jones Shark Bites »

Titans WR Julio Jones (hamstring) was a full participant in Thursday's practice. He's on track to return for Monday night's game vs. the Bills. Buffalo currently ranks 2nd in adjusted fantasy points allowed to WRs, but Tennessee's passing volume should be up in this game.

View all Julio Jones Shark Bites »

Titans WR Julio Jones (hamstring) got on the practice field on Wednesday. It was an unofficial practice with the Titans playing the Bills on Monday night this week, but it seemingly puts Jones on track to return for that game. We'll get another update on his status tomorrow.

View all Julio Jones Shark Bites »

Titans WR Julio Jones (hamstring) is out for Sunday's game vs. the Jaguars. He remained sidelined in practice all week and has no timetable for return.

View all Julio Jones Shark Bites »

Titans WR Julio Jones (hamstring) remained sidelined on Thursday. He's a long shot to play vs. the Jaguars this weekend.

View all Julio Jones Shark Bites »

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