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Julio Jones - Fantasy Points Outlook

Basic Stats Basic Stats

Julio Jones
TEN

WR TEN

#20 Wide Receiver

145 Projected Points

ADP: 4.4
Bye: 13
Experience: 10 Yr(s)
Age: 32
Height: 6'3"
Weight: 220
40 Time: 4.34

2021 Projections & Outlook

Scoring

#20 Wide Receiver

145 Projected Points

ADP Rec Rec Yds Rec TDs 100 Fum
4.4 75 1097 6 4

3D Projections DS 3D Projections

3d Projection

High Floor

120.4

DS Projection

145

Consensus

38 other sites
183.6

Med Ceiling

179.8

Ceiling Likelihood

High
How likely they will reach their ceiling projection

Basic Stats Preseason Player Analysis

What You Need to Know:

  • Jones was traded to the Titans in June. Tennessee received Jones and a 2023 6th-round pick in exchange for a 2022 2nd-rounder and a 2023 4th.
  • Jones turned 32 in February.
  • But he’s remained excellent when on the field. Among 87 WRs with 50+ targets last year, Jones ranked 3rd in yards per target and 4th in yards per route run. He finished 28th and 5th out of 80 qualifiers in 2019.
  • Jones played 15 games in 2019 and ranked 3rd among WRs in PPR points and 5th in non-PPR. His scoring average in 7 healthy games last year would have ranked 4th in both PPR and non-PPR.
  • Durability has always been a problem for Jones. He missed 7 games and most of 2 others last year with a lingering left hamstring injury. He missed 1 game in 2019, 2 in 2016, 1 in 2014, 11 in 2013 and 3 in 2011. That’s 25 games missed over 10 NFL seasons.
  • Jones heads from a Falcons offense that ranked 8th in pass rate and 4th in pass attempts last year to a Titans offense that ranked 30th in both pass rate and attempts. Atlanta threw it 143 times more than Tennessee in 2020.
  • The good news: The Titans’ passing game was efficient last year, ranking 7th in yards per attempt and 4th in TD rate. They finished 23rd in passing yards but 8th in TDs.
  • The offseason departures of WR Corey Davis, WR Adam Humphries and TE Jonnu Smith leave behind 192 targets (a 40% share) from last year.
    • Davis, who Jones will basically be replacing, garnered 92 targets in 14 games. That’s 6.6 targets per game -- a full-season pace of 105 that would have ranked 32nd among WRs last year.
    • Davis saw a 22.1% target share in his 14 games.
  • There’s also a chance the Titans’ pass volume grows this year. Their run-heavy attack last season was partly by design. But going 11-5 and trailing for only 42% of offensive snaps helped boost the run rate. Consider this: Tennessee threw the ball on just 41% of their snaps when leading but 56% when trailing last year. So if they’re trailing more this year -- and Vegas has their over/under win total set at 9 -- the pass rate figures to climb.
  • The Titans lost OC and play-caller Arthur Smith, who took Atlanta’s HC job. He’ll be replaced by Todd Downing. He spent the past 2 seasons as Tennessee’s TE coach, so the team is looking for continuity in scheme. But Downing has just 1 season of NFL OC experience. That came back in 2017 with the Raiders, who finished 17th in total yards and 23rd in points.

Draft Sharks Bottom Line:

You know about Jones’ injury issues. And those aren’t likely to go away now that he’s 32.

But Jones has also remained dominant when on the field, performing as a top-5 WR in terms of efficiency and fantasy production over the past 2 seasons.

The concern in Tennessee is volume. The Titans ranked 3rd-to-last in both pass rate and pass attempts last season. We’re expecting them to throw it more in 2021 -- but not nearly as much as Jones’ old team did. And with A.J. Brown on the other side of the field, Jones won’t dominate targets.

It leaves him as a lower-end WR2 -- albeit one with a lofty weekly ceiling.

 

Recent Shark Bites View All Shark Bites »

NFL Network's Ian Rapoport reports that the Falcons are trading WR Julio Jones to the Titans for "at least a 2nd-round pick." We'll see about the final details, but the move obviously means big impact for a pair of offenses. Acquiring a top-shelf WR talent could indicate a desire to lean a little more toward the pass in Tennessee. Jones' arrival certainly hurts the target ceiling for A.J. Brown and leaves fewer looks for other Titans. His departure from Atlanta makes Calvin Ridley the #1 wideout and elevates the rest of a shaky depth chart. Tajae Sharpe and Olamide Zaccheaus could be battling for the #2 outside WR spot in 3-wide sets. Rookie TE Kyle Pitts finds a higher target ceiling as well. We'll continue evaluating this developing situation for both offenses.

Update: Rapoport hears that the Falcons are receiving a 2022 2nd-round pick and a 2023 4th for Jones and a 2023 6th-rounder.

View all Julio Jones Shark Bites »

The Athletic's Jeff Schultz reports that the Falcons "would like to trade" WR Julio Jones. We heard from NFL Network's Ian Rapoport in April that teams had been calling Atlanta to inquire about the availability of Jones. But this is the 1st report saying the team is actually looking to move him. The Falcons are in a rough spot vs. the salary cap and would save $15.3 million against it by trading Jones after June 1. Schultz lists the Ravens, 49ers, Patriots, Colts and Chargers as teams who might be interested. Stay tuned.

View all Julio Jones Shark Bites »

NFL Network's Ian Rapoport hears that teams have been calling the Falcons to inquire about the availability of WR Julio Jones. Talks like this happen all the time, so this certainly doesn't mean Jones is on his way out. But it's worth noting that Atlanta is up against the salary cap and would save about $15 million by dealing Jones after June 1. "A trade could not happen for cap reasons before June 1, but teams know Atlanta’s brutal cap situation and are calling," Rapoport said. "A deal won’t happen now, but later? Maybe." We'll continue to keep an eye on this. A Jones trade would be a blow to QB Matt Ryan's fantasy stock but leave a ton of targets available for Calvin Ridley, Russell Gage, Hayden Hurst and potentially rookie Kyle Pitts.

View all Julio Jones Shark Bites »

Falcons WR Julio Jones (hamstring) is out for Sunday’s game vs. the Bucs. He ends up missing 5 of the season’s final 6 games. Calvin Ridley and Russell Gage will again operate as Atlanta’s top 2 WRs this weekend.

View all Julio Jones Shark Bites »

Falcons WR Julio Jones (hamstring) is out for Sunday’s game against the Chiefs. Calvin Ridley and Russell Gage will continue to operate as Atlanta’s top 2 WRs. Jones’ absence makes Matt Ryan a shaky QB1 play.

View all Julio Jones Shark Bites »

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