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Kyle Pitts - Fantasy Points Outlook

Basic StatsKyle Pitts's Basic Stats

Kyle Pitts
ADP: 6.6
Bye: 11
Experience: 2 Yr(s)
Age: 22.9
Height: 6'6"
Weight: 246
40 Time: 4.49
Speed Score: 123.10
SPARQx (Rank): 120.90 (88%)
Burst Score (Rank): 123.10 (80%)
Agility Score (Rank): 11.47 (64%)
Catch Radius (Rank): 10.21 (85%)

Kyle Pitts's Weekly Outlook

Week 3 Projections
Rec Rec Yds Rec TDs Fantasy Pts
3.3 43.9 0.3 6.2
Weekly Writeup
It’s not as bad for Pitts as you might think. He ranks second among all TEs with a 92% route rate through two weeks. He’s drawn a decent 16% target share. And he ranks first at his position in air-yards share and fifth in total air yards. The Falcons are 3-point underdogs in Detroit on Sunday, so they might be forced to pass more than Arthur Smith would like.

Rest Of Way Outlook

Rec Rec Yds Rec TDs Fantasy Pts
4 49.2 0.3 6.7

Kyle Pitts's 2023 Projections & Outlook

Scoring

#9 Tight End

92.7 Projected Points

ADP Rec Rec Yds Rec TDs 100 Fum
6.6 50 710.7 4 1 1.2

3D Projections DS 3D Projections

Basic StatsKyle Pitts's Preseason Player Analysis

View TE Fantasy Rankings »
Bottom Line

If you don’t want to be in on Pitts this year, that’s fine. He probably still won’t get help from his team’s passing volume, and his QB remains iffy.

But if you’re “out” on Pitts because you just think he’s an overrated talent, then you’re setting yourself up to lose out when things do break right for him. We recommend changing that mindset.

What We Learned Last Year
  • Two prime factors kept us from learning much about Pitts in his second season.
  • First, his team barely threw the ball. Atlanta ran at the league’s second-highest rate for the season, trailing only Chicago. It was even worse when QB Marcus Mariota was starting. The Falcons ranked 32nd in neutral-situation pass rate over those 13 weeks.
  • That improved a little when rookie Desmond Ridder took over after the bye. Atlanta ranked 24th in neutral pass rate over that span.
  • Pitts ranked second among TEs in target share for the season, trailing only Ravens TE Mark Andrews by a slimmer margin than the gap between Pitts and No. 3 Travis Kelce.
  • Atlanta’s lack of total volume left him with just the position’s seventh most targets through 11 weeks, though. Poor QB play helped turn that into just 28 receptions, 18th among TEs over that span.
  • Why just 11 weeks? Because that’s when an MCL injury ended Pitts’ season.
  • Before he went down, Pitts compiled a worse catch rate, fewer yards per catch, a lower Pro Football Focus receiving grade, fewer yards per route, and a worse passer rating on balls thrown his way than he did as a rookie in 2021.
    • That collection shows a mix of QB effect and areas in which Pitts could improve.
    • He still ranked a solid eighth in receiving grade at the position and seventh in yards per route.
What to Expect in 2023
  • Pitts should be ready to start the season. But we don’t know whether his QB situation or team passing volume will improve.
  • Desmond Ridder should be a passing upgrade over Marcus Mariota, but he earned a worse PFF passing grade last season. If he falters in Year 2, Atlanta did add former Commanders QB Taylor Heinicke as insurance.
  • Atlanta should pass at a higher rate than it did before Pitts went down last season. That rate did climb after Ridder entered the lineup. And HC Arthur Smith’s 2021 Falcons ranked 14th in the league in neutral-situation pass rate.
    • That team sported Matt Ryan at QB, with Mike Davis and Cordarrelle Patterson leading the backfield.
    • We’re not expecting a Ridder-Bijan Robinson remix to approach that level. But there’s at least hope for some more passing volume.
  • Really, the reason to bet on Pitts is his own talent, though. He ranks 14th all-time in receiving yards for a TE through two seasons, despite tying for just 137th in games played and tying for 28th in receptions.
  • Pitts has spent less than 26% of his passing-down snaps at an inline position, meaning he’s running from the slot or out wide three-quarters of the time. Translation: They want him running routes and catching passes, not blocking.

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Recent Shark Bites View All Shark Bites »

Kyle Pitts, TE ATL

5:07pm EDT 9/24/23

Kyle Pitts underwhelms again

Falcons TE Kyle Pitts led the team in Week 3 with nine targets -- the second most of his career. He caught five of them but totaled just 41 yards. QB Desmond Ridder looked Pitts' way downfield a few times, but the duo was unable to connect. Another frustrating outing for the talented TE. Pitts has at least seen 14 targets over the last two weeks, which is enough to support him as a low-end TE1. But he needs to get better QB play -- and better play calling -- if he's going to come close to reaching his fantasy ceiling.

View all Kyle Pitts Shark Bites »

Falcons WR Drake London led the team in receiving in Week 2, tallying 6 catches on 7 targets for 67 yards and a TD vs. the Packers. Fantasy managers who stuck with the second-year wideout in lineups were rewarded handsomely. But those who started TE Kyle Pitts? Well, they’re not so happy. Pitts only hauled in 2 of his 5 targets for 15 receiving yards in the victory. Fellow TE Jonnu Smith saw 6 targets and turned his opportunities into 4 catches for 47 yards. It’s starting to feel like both London and Pitts being viable fantasy assets in the same week might be a pipedream. Fortunately, we’re only a pair of games into the 2023 season, but early results aren’t encouraging. Pitts will have a chance to get right in Week 3 vs. the Lions.

View all Drake London Shark Bites »

Falcons TE Kyle Pitts led Atlanta with 44 receiving yards in the opener. He saw only 3 targets — a subpar 16.6% team share. He also had one catch wiped out by a penalty. Desmond Ridder attempted only 18 passes here, as Atlanta leaned into a strong run game. That’s the risk for fantasy owners in the weeks ahead, adding volatility to Pitts’ outlook. Still, given the state of TE, the Falcon will remain a fantasy starter for the foreseeable future. Pitts faces Green Bay in Week 2.

View all Kyle Pitts Shark Bites »

The Falcons have “slowly added” to TE Kyle Pitts’ workload in training camp, per The Athletic’s Josh Kendall. Pitts underwent surgery for an MCL tear back in November. The 22-year-old has avoided setbacks this summer, but we’ll be curious to monitor his preseason snaps. If healthy, a top-3 ceiling remains on the table for this third-year pro. See where he sits inside the fantasy TE rankings.

View all Kyle Pitts Shark Bites »

Falcons HC Arthur Smith said Saturday that he's "very pleased" with TE Kyle Pitts' progression from offseason knee surgery. "Every day he's doing more," Smith added. Pitts is practicing with a brace on that repaired knee and doesn't look quite 100% to us. But he still has six weeks before the start of the regular season. We'll continue to keep a close eye on his status.

View all Kyle Pitts Shark Bites »

Dynasty Overview View TE Dynasty Rankings »

Kyle Pitts, TE ATL
Dynasty MVP 75.8
Position Rank #4 TE
3yr Projection
5yr Projection
10yr Projection
228
387
739
Dynasty Write-up
Pitts became the 2nd rookie TE to hit 1,000 yards. Year 2 was a major disaster, highlighted by a season-ending MCL tear. Only 22, however, we remain bullish on his long-term outlook.
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