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Kyle Pitts - Fantasy Points Outlook

Basic StatsKyle Pitts's Basic Stats

Kyle Pitts
ADP: 6.6
Bye: 12
Experience: 3
Age: 23.8
Height: 6'6"
Weight: 246
40 Time: 4.49
Speed Score: 123.10

SPARQx (Rank): 120.90 (88%)
Burst Score (Rank): 123.10 (78%)
Agility Score (Rank): 11.47 (64%)
Catch Radius (Rank): 10.19 (85%)

Kyle Pitts's Weekly Outlook

Week 1 Projections
Rec Rec Yds Rec TDs Fantasy Pts
4.1 52.9 0.29 7.1
Weekly Writeup

Rest Of Way Outlook

Rec Rec Yds Rec TDs Fantasy Pts
4.3 57.6 0.3 7.6

Kyle Pitts's 2024 Projections & Outlook

Scoring

#8 Tight End

168.1 Projected Points

ADP Rec Rec Yds Rec TDs 100 Fum
6.6 61.6 795.3 4.49 0 0

3D Projections DS 3D Projections

Basic StatsKyle Pitts's Preseason Player Analysis

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Bottom Line

The optimism is back for Pitts to finally perform up to his talent level after disappointing over the past two seasons.

Ditching the Arthur Smith offense for a more modern one that utilizes its talent is a welcome change. In addition, the massive QB upgrade to Kirk Cousins gives Pitts the best chance to hit his ceiling.

He is a year and a half removed from MCL and PCL surgery, coming into this season the healthiest of his career.

Pitts is an upside TE1 with a low floor and high ceiling.

What We Learned Last Year

  • Pitts’ per-game receiving statistics were in line with his 2022 season:
    • 5.1 targets (down from 5.8)
    • 3 receptions (up from 2.8)
    • 37.6 yards (up from 35.6)
    • 12.5 yards per catch (down from 12.7)
    • 0.21 TDs per game (up from 0.2)
  • Pitts ranked as the PPR TE14 in total fantasy points (132.6) and in points per game (5.1).
  • He played all 17 games despite getting MCL and PCL surgery in November 2022.
  • He had five top-12 finishes. He also had five TE25 or worse finishes.
  • Pitts' target share of 18.4% ranked 13th among TEs. It was also the lowest of his career.
  • Among 33 TEs with at least 40+ targets, Pitts ranked:
    • 11th in PFF receiving grade
    • Third lowest in-line snap percentage of that group (14.9%)
    • Highest average target depth among those TEs at 12.0 yards.

What to Expect in 2024

  • Pitts will play under HC Raheem Morris and first-time OC and play-caller Zac Robinson.
    • Robinson has been on the Rams’ staff since 2019 under Sean McVay, working as the QB coach and pass game coordinator since 2022.
    • Under Robinson, the Rams averaged 628 passes per season.
  • Kirk Cousins signed with the Falcons and will provide a significant QB upgrade
    • Last season Cousins had a superior 85.1 PFF passing grade compared to Desmond Ridder (53.2) and Taylor Heinicke (48.5)
  • The Falcons are expected to be pretty good. They lead the NFC South with a 9.5 win total at most sportsbooks.
  • This expectation of success is largely due to Cousins joining the team. The Falcons’ Super Bowl odds jumped from +4000 before Cousins to +2800 after he signed.
  • Pitts enters his 4th season at 23 years old. According to our aging curve research, a player with Pitts' career produces 98% of his peak value at age-23.

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Recent Shark Bites View All Shark Bites »

Kirk Cousins, QB ATL

11:15am EDT 7/25/24

Kirk Cousins Medically Cleared and Taking First Team Reps

Falcons QB Kirk Cousins (Achilles) has been medically cleared for training camp and will take all first-team reps while QBs Michael Penix Jr. and Taylor Heinicke split second-team reps.

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The Falcons' new coaching staff has big plans for TE Kyle Pitts this season. OC Zac Robinson said that Pitts is playing both TE and WR in his offense. “He’s learning basically two different positions,” Robinson said. “There’s some tight end and there’s some receiver. So, he’s got a lot on his plate. He’s handled it really well. I’m just excited to see him continue to get more comfortable in the system. The sky is the limit for what kind of season that he can have."

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Pro Football Talk's Mike Florio writes that he has "very credible indications" that QB Kirk Cousins is "seriously considering" a move to Atlanta to sign with the Falcons. Cousins' wife grew up near Atlanta, and the Falcons "have always been the top alternative to the Vikings for Cousins," per Florio. Cousins would be a nice fit playing indoors in new OC Zac Robinson's offense with WR Drake London, TE Kyle Pitts, and RB Bijan Robinson. Likewise, a move for Cousins would be excellent news for the fantasy value of Atlanta's key weapons. We should know who Cousins will be playing for in 2024 within the next couple of weeks.

View all Kirk Cousins Shark Bites »

The Falcons released TE Jonnu Smith. The 28-year-old set career highs last year with 50 catches and 582 receiving yards. Both marks ranked top-4 on the run-heavy Falcons. Smith's 1.55 yards per route ranked 11th among 45 qualifying TEs. He's still capable of making a fantasy football impact in 2024, depending on the landing spot. Smith's departure from Atlanta obviously doesn't hurt TE Kyle Pitts' outlook.

View all Jonnu Smith Shark Bites »

The Falcons are hiring Zac Robinson as their new OC under HC Raheem Morris, according to NFL Network's Ian Rapoport. The 37-year-old Robinson played QB at Oklahoma State from 2006 to 2009. He was selected in the seventh round of the 2010 NFL draft by the Patriots but never attempted a regular-season pass across four seasons. Robinson then spent some time working as an analyst for Pro Football Focus before joining Sean McVay's Rams in 2019 as assistant QB coach. Robinson worked his way up to QB coach and passing-game coordinator over the last two seasons, but this will be his first time calling plays. Robinson's new offense has plenty of skill-position talent in RB Bijan Robinson, WR Drake London, and TE Kyle Pitts, but QB remains a major question mark. Atlanta currently holds the eighth overall pick in this spring's draft.

View all Bijan Robinson Shark Bites »

Dynasty Overview View TE Dynasty Rankings »

Kyle Pitts, TE ATL
Dynasty MVP 90.8
Position Rank #7 TE
3yr Projection
5yr Projection
10yr Projection
289
467
830
Dynasty Write-up
Pitts became the second rookie TE to hit 1,000 yards. Year two was a major disaster, highlighted by a season-ending MCL tear. 2023 remained frustrating under now-fired HC Arthur Smith, despite a full 17-game season from Pitts. We're optimistic that Pitts can return to his 2021 form with Kirk Cousins.
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