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Kyle Pitts - Fantasy Points Outlook

Basic StatsKyle Pitts's Basic Stats

Kyle Pitts
ADP: N/A
Bye: 11
Experience: 3
Age: 23.3
Height: 6'6"
Weight: 246
40 Time: 4.49
Speed Score: 123.10
SPARQx (Rank): 120.90 (88%)
Burst Score (Rank): 123.10 (78%)
Agility Score (Rank): 11.47 (65%)
Catch Radius (Rank): 10.20 (85%)

Kyle Pitts's Weekly Outlook

Week 1 Projections
Rec Rec Yds Rec TDs Fantasy Pts
3.9 50.3 0.28 6.8
Weekly Writeup

Rest Of Way Outlook

Rec Rec Yds Rec TDs Fantasy Pts
4.3 57.6 0.3 7.6

Kyle Pitts's 2024 Projections & Outlook

Scoring

#9 Tight End

114.1 Projected Points

ADP Rec Rec Yds Rec TDs 100 Fum
Not Available 66.3 855.1 4.76 0 0

3D Projections DS 3D Projections

Basic StatsKyle Pitts's Preseason Player Analysis

View TE Fantasy Rankings »
Bottom Line

If you don’t want to be in on Pitts this year, that’s fine. He probably still won’t get help from his team’s passing volume, and his QB remains iffy.

But if you’re “out” on Pitts because you just think he’s an overrated talent, then you’re setting yourself up to lose out when things do break right for him. We recommend changing that mindset.

What We Learned Last Year
  • Two prime factors kept us from learning much about Pitts in his second season.
  • First, his team barely threw the ball. Atlanta ran at the league’s second-highest rate for the season, trailing only Chicago. It was even worse when QB Marcus Mariota was starting. The Falcons ranked 32nd in neutral-situation pass rate over those 13 weeks.
  • That improved a little when rookie Desmond Ridder took over after the bye. Atlanta ranked 24th in neutral pass rate over that span.
  • Pitts ranked second among TEs in target share for the season, trailing only Ravens TE Mark Andrews by a slimmer margin than the gap between Pitts and No. 3 Travis Kelce.
  • Atlanta’s lack of total volume left him with just the position’s seventh most targets through 11 weeks, though. Poor QB play helped turn that into just 28 receptions, 18th among TEs over that span.
  • Why just 11 weeks? Because that’s when an MCL injury ended Pitts’ season.
  • Before he went down, Pitts compiled a worse catch rate, fewer yards per catch, a lower Pro Football Focus receiving grade, fewer yards per route, and a worse passer rating on balls thrown his way than he did as a rookie in 2021.
    • That collection shows a mix of QB effect and areas in which Pitts could improve.
    • He still ranked a solid eighth in receiving grade at the position and seventh in yards per route.
What to Expect in 2023
  • Pitts should be ready to start the season. But we don’t know whether his QB situation or team passing volume will improve.
  • Desmond Ridder should be a passing upgrade over Marcus Mariota, but he earned a worse PFF passing grade last season. If he falters in Year 2, Atlanta did add former Commanders QB Taylor Heinicke as insurance.
  • Atlanta should pass at a higher rate than it did before Pitts went down last season. That rate did climb after Ridder entered the lineup. And HC Arthur Smith’s 2021 Falcons ranked 14th in the league in neutral-situation pass rate.
    • That team sported Matt Ryan at QB, with Mike Davis and Cordarrelle Patterson leading the backfield.
    • We’re not expecting a Ridder-Bijan Robinson remix to approach that level. But there’s at least hope for some more passing volume.
  • Really, the reason to bet on Pitts is his own talent, though. He ranks 14th all-time in receiving yards for a TE through two seasons, despite tying for just 137th in games played and tying for 28th in receptions.
  • Pitts has spent less than 26% of his passing-down snaps at an inline position, meaning he’s running from the slot or out wide three-quarters of the time. Translation: They want him running routes and catching passes, not blocking.

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Recent Shark Bites View All Shark Bites »

Bijan Robinson, RB ATL

9:24pm EST 1/27/24

Falcons hire Zac Robinson as OC

The Falcons are hiring Zac Robinson as their new OC under HC Raheem Morris, according to NFL Network's Ian Rapoport. The 37-year-old Robinson played QB at Oklahoma State from 2006 to 2009. He was selected in the seventh round of the 2010 NFL draft by the Patriots but never attempted a regular-season pass across four seasons. Robinson then spent some time working as an analyst for Pro Football Focus before joining Sean McVay's Rams in 2019 as assistant QB coach. Robinson worked his way up to QB coach and passing-game coordinator over the last two seasons, but this will be his first time calling plays. Robinson's new offense has plenty of skill-position talent in RB Bijan Robinson, WR Drake London, and TE Kyle Pitts, but QB remains a major question mark. Atlanta currently holds the eighth overall pick in this spring's draft.

View all Bijan Robinson Shark Bites »

Falcons TE Kyle Pitts believes the knee he injured in 2022 remained a factor throughout the 2023 campaign. He had surgery on November 29, 2022 to repair MCL and PCL damage to his right knee, missed most of the offseason program, and was limited at the start of training camp. "It's a continual growth in terms of coming off an injury," Pitts said. "So each week was trying to get better, keep getting stronger and, you know, just doing what I need to do to get back to the bionic knee that I used to have. That natural knee, you know, after surgery." Pitts had two of his four best fantasy outings of 2023 over the final five weeks of the season. Hopefully healthier in 2024 and with HC Arthur Smith finally out of the way, Pitts has obvious bounce-back potential.

View all Kyle Pitts Shark Bites »

The Falcons will bench QB Desmond Ridder for the second time this season, The Athletic reports. Ridder mustered just 152 passing yards with one TD and one INT in the Week 15 loss to the Panthers. He's at 10 TDs vs. 10 INTs for the season and ranks 32nd among 33 qualifying QBs in Pro Football Focus' passing grades. This figures to be the end of Ridder's tenure in Atlanta. We'll see where he lands in 2024, but it's likely to be as a backup. QB Taylor Heinicke will take back over for the Falcons vs. the Colts this weekend. He's made three appearances this season, registering a 55.4% completion rate and 6.7 yards per attempt. Those marks are both worse than Ridder's this season.

View all Desmond Ridder Shark Bites »

Falcons TE Jonnu Smith hauled 5 of 6 targets for a team-high 100 receiving yards in Week 9 vs. the Vikings. Most of that production game on a 60-yard TD on a screen pass in the third quarter. Sunday was the first time he out-targeted teammate Kyle Pitts over the past four games. Pitts was fine (4 catches, 56 yards), though it’s disappointing that he didn’t see a more significant role without WR Drake London (groin) in the lineup. The duo of Smith and Pitts rank as the TE14 and 17 in PPR points per game, respectively. Both are relatively decent lineup options, though the frustrating nature of HC Arthur Smith’s offense makes them hard to count on for consistency. Their prospects won’t be any easier for the rest of the season, either. The Falcons’ remaining schedule ranks as the ninth-toughest for TEs per our adjusted fantasy points allowed.

View all Jonnu Smith Shark Bites »

Falcons WR Drake London (groin) is out for Sunday’s game vs. the Vikings. That leaves Atlanta with WRs Van Jefferson, KhaDarel Hodge, Mack Hollins, and Scotty Miller. Seriously. TEs Kyle Pitts and Jonnu Smith should draw more targets with London out. RBs Bijan Robinson and Cordarrelle Patterson could also play expanded roles in the passing game.

View all Drake London Shark Bites »

Dynasty Overview View TE Dynasty Rankings »

Kyle Pitts, TE ATL
Dynasty MVP 73.8
Position Rank #11 TE
3yr Projection
5yr Projection
10yr Projection
237
376
675
Dynasty Write-up
Pitts became the second rookie TE to hit 1,000 yards. Year two was a major disaster, highlighted by a season-ending MCL tear. 2023 remained frustrating under now-fired HC Arthur Smith, despite a full 17-game season from Pitts. We remain optimistic that Pitts can return to his 2021 form -- if Atlanta can find the right QB.
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