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Nabers looks set up to dominate targets whenever he’s healthy. But the timing of when he’ll see the field is a mystery, with a Week 1 return and a stint on the Physically Unable to Perform List both in play. The downside potential makes him a shaky pick under his current mid-Round 3 ADP. If he slips into Round 4 or Round 5, though, Nabers becomes easier to stomach as a WR2.
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Nabers tore the ACL and meniscus in his right knee only four games into last season. That limited him to three full games -- each with Russell Wilson -- and lines of:
Those turned into WR29, WR2, and WR87 fantasy finishes.
He caught two passes for 20 yards before leaving a Week 4 matchup with the Chargers, his first game with Jaxson Dart.
Nabers looked set for another high-volume season after finishing his rookie year second in targets and first in target share. His 29 targets through three weeks tied Jaxon Smith-Njigba for second-most among WRs and put him on a full-season pace of 164.
The small sample also showed heavier deep-ball usage. Nabers’ 17.9-yard average depth of target ranked fourth among 78 WRs with 10+ targets through Week 3, while his 55.3% air yards share ranked second. As a rookie, he posted a 9.7-yard aDOT and accounted for 46.1% of the Giants’ air yards.
The Giants went pass-heavy in Nabers’ three full games, ranking seventh in situation-neutral pass rate at 61.7%. But that dropped to 50.2% across Dart’s 12 starts, ranking 28th, with Nabers absent for all but two quarters.
Those figures came under the previous Brian Daboll-Mike Kafka staff.
Nabers dealt with injuries before last season even started, sitting out part of the offseason program with a toe issue that stemmed from college. Shoulder and back injuries cost him time in training camp, though he made it back for Week 1.
His season ended with the Week 4 knee injury. He underwent surgery in late October before needing a follow-up procedure in April.
Nabers still sits comfortably atop the target pecking order.
Wan’Dale Robinson’s departure opens up 140 targets, and the Giants didn’t add an obvious replacement. Instead, Darius Slayton, Calvin Austin III, Darnell Mooney, and rookie Malachi Fields will compete for roles.
Regardless of how that plays out, it’s a strong setup for Nabers to push for another 30% target share.
If Nabers stays healthy, the next variable is Dart’s development. His rookie year was defined more by gutsy rushing than polished passing.
Among 42 QBs with 150+ attempts, he finished:
Dart entered the lineup in Week 4 and spent nearly all of his rookie sample without Nabers. So the shaky passing numbers aren’t a major red flag, but they do leave Nabers attached to an unproven QB.
The Giants bolstered the O-line by taking RT Francis Mauigoa with the 10th overall pick. He’ll kick inside to RG in Year 1, with the other four starters returning around him. This unit already finished 10th in Pro Football Focus pass-blocking grade and 11th in ESPN pass-block win rate last season, a positive sign for the passing game.
New OC Matt Nagy spent the past three seasons as Chiefs OC, but this is his first play-calling gig since 2021 in Chicago.
Nagy’s four Bears offenses weren’t consistently pass-heavy with Mitchell Trubisky and Justin Fields at QB. They finished 24th, 14th, eighth, and 17th in pass attempts, plus 27th, 11th, sixth, and 25th in pass rate.
His units cracked the top-20 in scoring only once.
That would be a concern for most WRs, but not one who projects as the offensive focal point as Nabers does.
There’s also a history of Nagy overseeing units that delivered high-end volume for the WR1. Allen Robinson ranked third among WRs in targets in 2019 and 2020, while Darnell Mooney ranked 11th in targets in 2021, his most productive season.
Nabers proved his value as a rookie, finishing second at the position with 170 targets and eighth in PPR points per game.
He can access a similar ceiling this year, given the Giants’ weak WR room. Another year of Jaxson Dart also brings the potential for better QB play than Nabers got from Daniel Jones, Drew Lock, and Tommy DeVito in 2024.
The Giants are “hopeful” that Nabers can suit up for Week 1. Even if he’s ready, a slow start would make sense after a major knee injury and limited practice time with Dart.
Nabers’ weekly scoring could also swing more to the downside if Dart plateaus as a passer. Less team passing volume would obviously hurt the upside as well. The Giants ranked eighth in pass attempts in 2024 (compared with 25th in rushing attempts).
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Malik Nabers Opens Camp in Individual Drills. Week 1 Looks Possible
Malik Nabers Opens Camp in Individual Drills. Week 1 Looks Possible
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Training camp should give us a clearer read on Giants WR Malik Nabers’ return to action. But there’s reason to question his readiness, especially with the team offering few useful details. Nabers tore the ACL and meniscus in his right knee last September. Earlier this year, he underwent a scar-tissue cleanup procedure that might have been more significant than the label suggests.
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