Malik Nabers - Fantasy Points Outlook

Bottom Line

We love Nabers for dynasty. His LSU tape proved dynamic, with fluid movement skills and slippery post-catch ability.

He’s poised for 100+ targets right away – but his efficiency is uncertain. Can Daniel Jones stay healthy? If so, can he perform as a league-average QB?

Those questions have Nabers profiling as a low-floor, high-ceiling fantasy option. We’re not eager to buy at his current Underdog ADP (WR20).

What We Learned Last Year

• Nabers posted big-time production at LSU over the past two seasons.
  • Across 27 games, he racked up 161 catches, 2,586 yards, and 17 TDs.
  • That stretch includes a sophomore breakout with solid market shares: 22.4% of the catches and 27.0% of the receiving yards.
• Last year, Nabers ranked second nationally in receiving yards and third in receiving TDs.
  • Among 286 qualifiers, Nabers sat first in PFF receiving grade and third in yards per route run.
  • Playing alongside Round 1 pick Brian Thomas Jr., Nabers boosted his market shares: 35.6% of the receiving yards; 31.8% of the receiving TDs.
• Nabers’ tape showed a dynamic athlete, both downfield and in post-catch situations.
• He averaged 17.6 yards per catch and led the FBS in plays of 20+ and 30+ yards.
• Nabers also averaged 6.6 yards after catch per reception.
• The Louisiana native showed versatility by splitting his time between outside positions and the slot.

What to Expect in 2024

• Nabers enters the league on the young side, turning 21 in July.
• His injury history turns up no cause for concern.
• The Giants drafted him sixth overall as the WR2.
• It’s the perfect landing spot for opportunity.
  • The 2023 Giants featured Darius Slayton, Wan'Dale Robinson, and Darren Waller as top target-getters.
  • The WRs return, but Waller retired.
  • GM Joe Schoen didn't make any other notable investments at WR.
  • New York downgraded at RB, swapping out Saquon Barkley for Devin Singletary.
• QB play remains a huge red flag.
  • Daniel Jones is coming off a November ACL tear.
  • He hasn’t reached 7.0 YPA as an NFL passer. (He tallied 5.7 YPA last season.)
  • His career completion rate underwhelms at 64.3%. Same for his 3.3% TD rate.