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Ryan Fitzpatrick - Fantasy Points Outlook

Basic Stats Basic Stats

Ryan Fitzpatrick
WAS

QB WAS

#23 Quarterback

287 Projected Points

ADP: 17.9
Bye: 9
Experience: 14 Yr(s)
Age: 38
Height: 6'2"
Weight: 225
40 Time: 4.86

2021 Projections & Outlook

Scoring

#23 Quarterback

287 Projected Points

ADP Comp/Att P Yds P TD INT Att R Yds Fum
17.9 323/504 3604 22 15 221

3D Projections DS 3D Projections

3d Projection

High Floor

246.8

DS Projection

287

Consensus

38 other sites
193.95

High Ceiling

361.6

Ceiling Likelihood

Medium
How likely they will reach their ceiling projection

Basic Stats Preseason Player Analysis

What You Need to Know:

  • Fitzpatrick is the undisputed starter for the first time in a while. Fitzpatrick has started 16 games just once in the past 8 years. Even the 2019 season that found Fitzpatrick playing 15 games and starting 13 also found Miami giving an early-season shot to Josh Rosen.
  • Washington signed Fitzpatrick to a 1-year, $10 million deal in free agency, with $6 million of that guaranteed. The team then drafted no one at the position. The only other QBs on the roster are Kyle Allen, Taylor Heinicke and Steven Montez.
  • Fitzpatrick is coming off the best completion rate of his career: 68.5%. His 2nd-best mark came just 2 years prior with Tampa. That season, Fitzpatrick also set personal bests in TD rate (6.9%) and yards per attempt (9.6).
  • The past 4 seasons have also included 3 of Fitzpatrick’s 4 best Pro Football Focus grades and PFF adjusted completion rates.
  • Fitzpatrick finished last season 6th-best in Pro Football Reference’s “on-target throw %,” among 44 QBs with 90+ pass attempts. Fitzpatrick also ranked 7th-best in “bad throw %.”
  • The season before, though, he finished just 30th among 43 qualifiers in “on-target” and 17th in “bad-throw.”
  • Fitzpatrick clearly enhances Washington’s deep-passing aptitude over the players he’s replacing. In 2020, he rated well ahead of Alex Smith in both PFF passing grade and adjusted completion rate on deep balls. Dwayne Haskins ranked worst in the group.
  • In 2019, Kyle Allen was the most frequent QB starter for a Carolina offense under HC Ron Rivera and QBs coach-turned-OC Scott Turner. Allen finished that season 2nd worst in deep-passing grade among 38 qualifiers. He tied Haskins that year for the worst adjusted completion rate.
  • Fitzpatrick’s fantasy-scoring average over his 7 starts last season would have ranked 13th among QBs for the year, just ahead of Kirk Cousins, Matt Ryan and Joe Burrow (even if you remove Burrow’s injury game).
  • Before that, Fitzpatrick ranked:
    • 20th in fantasy points per game in 2019
    • 4th in 2018
    • 17th in 2015
    • 24th in 2014
    • 22nd in 2012
    • 16th in 2011
    • 10th in 2020
    • (Note: Skipped seasons featured minimal usage.)

Draft Sharks Bottom Line:

Fitzpatrick represents a QB upgrade for Washington. But it’s important to remember that he does so because of how bad their QBs were over the past 2 years -- not because he’s that good. At his best, Fitzpatrick is a daring downfield passer with sneaky rushing value (15.9 yards per game career, which is 254 yards over 16 games). Washington needs that daring to leverage the speed of WRs Terry McLaurin, Curtis Samuel and Dyami Brown.

Fitzpatrick has displayed upside all the way into QB1 range -- even in the twilight of his career. We, of course, wouldn’t recommend drafting him anywhere near that range. But with a current ADP of just QB22 in FFPC best-ball drafting, Fitzpatrick makes for a fine late QB2 or QB3 target -- especially in best-ball formats.

 

Recent Shark Bites View All Shark Bites »

QB Ryan Fitzpatrick has agreed to a 1-year deal with Washington, according to ESPN's Adam Schefter. The contract would pay the veteran $10 million, with an additional $2 million available through incentives. Fitzpatrick is reportedly expected to open camp as the starter, with Taylor Heinicke competing. Kyle Allen also remains in the mix. We'll see whether Washington adds more to the QB room via the draft. Fitzpatrick gets a mediocre group of pass-catchers with his new team, though WR Terry McLaurin looks like the best wideout he will have played with in a while. Fitzpatrick now looks OK as a late 3rd QB in best-ball drafts. And although it seems a little strange, Fitzpatrick looks like the best QB McLaurin will have had through his 3 pro seasons.

View all Ryan Fitzpatrick Shark Bites »

Dolphins QB Ryan Fitzpatrick tested positive for COVID and is out for Sunday's game vs. the Bills. Miami had already named QB Tua Tagovailoa the starter for that one, but this eliminates the possibility of Fitzpatrick entering if the rookie struggles.

View all Ryan Fitzpatrick Shark Bites »

ESPN's Adam Schefter reports that the Dolphins have officially named QB Ryan Fitzpatrick the Week 1 starter. Rookie Tua Tagovailoa reportedly showed flashes of what's to come during training camp, but it makes sense to ease him in after the hip injury that ended his college career prematurely. Fitzpatrick posted a big outing at New England late last season, but we'd rather not use him at the Patriots in Week 1 of this year.

View all Ryan Fitzpatrick Shark Bites »

The Athletic's Josh Tolentino and the South Florida Sun-Sentinel's Omar Kelly both said Tuesday that Ryan Fitzpatrick is the clear favorite to open the season as Miami's starting QB. The team is seemingly taking it slow with rookie QB Tua Tagovailoa, who's returning from a serious hip injury. "The former Alabama standout is also typically playing with the second and third team talent," Kelly writes. "Give him some time to get adjusted before you expect him to push for a starting spot." We always expected to see Fitzpatrick under center Week 1 -- but Tua still figures to take over at some point this season.

View all Ryan Fitzpatrick Shark Bites »

Dolphins GM Chris Grier "fully expects" QB Ryan Fitzpatrick to be back for 2020. He's due a reasonable $8 million, so it makes plenty of sense to bring him back even if he doesn't start all year. Miami is a strong bet to select a QB in the 1st round of this spring's draft, but Fitzpatrick could certainly open the season under center. He exceed expectations in 2019 and ranked 17th at his position in fantasy points per game.

View all Ryan Fitzpatrick Shark Bites »

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