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Tom Brady - Fantasy Points Outlook

Basic Stats Basic Stats

Tom Brady
TB

QB TB

#8 Quarterback

399 Projected Points

ADP: Not Available
Bye: 9
Experience: 21 Yr(s)
Age: 44
Height: 6'4"
Weight: 225
40 Time: 5.28

Weekly Outlook

3d Projection

Med Floor

19

DS Projection

24.7

Consensus

38 other sites
24

Low Ceiling

28.2

Rest of
Season

24

Week 8 Projections
Yds TDs INT Rush Yds Fantasy Pts
320.8 2.3 0.7 2 24.7
Weekly Writeup

Rest Of Way Outlook

Yds TDs INT Rush Yds Fantasy Pts
298.4 2.3 0.8 1.2 24
Week 7
No Antonio Brown, no Rob Gronkowski … no problem for Brady. He chucked for 211 yards and 4 TDs in Sunday’s dismantling of the Bears.

And the crazy thing is that Brady didn’t play very well. He missed multiple open receivers and finished with a 55.6% completion rate.

“Offensively, we left about 20 points out there,” HC Bruce Arians said. “We scored 38 points — and really did not play very well offensively.”

And that’s a reminder of just how potent this Tampa offense is. We’ll see when Brady gets Brown and Gronk back, but he’s a locked-in QB1 regardless.
Week 6
Brady’s season has started so well that his 297 yards and 2 TDs against the Eagles stands as his 2nd-worst fantasy outing to date.

There was nothing to dislike, as Brady completed 80% of his throws, finding O.J. Howard and Antonio Brown for TDs. Even his late 2nd-quarter INT was basically a hail mary from his own 30 to the Philly 30 on a 3rd-and-15 with a minute left.

Through 6 weeks, Brady trails only Patrick Mahomes in fantasy points and fantasy points per game. He leads the league in passing yards. Even his 6.4% TD rate -- though higher than average both vs. the league and his past -- now sits 0.2 percentage points behind his 2020 rate.

Any QB is tradeable in a deal that can help you at other positions. But don’t look at Brady as a “crash” candidate in fantasy by any means.
Week 5
Facing a familiar Dolphins squad (and former Pats coach Brian Flores), Brady looked as sharp as ever. He posted a jaw-dropping 411-4 line on 30-of-41 passing en route to a 45-17 victory. Miami actually kept this one close until the 2nd half, when Brady tossed 2 downfield TDs to Mike Evans. His other scores went to Antonio Brown (x2) and Gio Bernard. Those throws — and many others — showed Brady’s touch and feel for pressure. It’s almost like Brady’s played more games than any other QB in league history. Through 5 games, he now sits a close 2nd in fantasy points behind Patrick Mahomes. Brady gets a short turnaround against the Eagles (on the road) on Thursday night. Note that he's dealing with a thumb injury, albeit one that shouldn't significantly affect his performance.
Week 4
After an emotional week leading up to Brady’s return to Foxborough, he arrived in New England to be met with a rainstorm that would last the whole game. Conditions were difficult throughout the game and Brady looked amped up early in the game, overthrowing several receivers during the 1st half. It was a tough night for Brady and the Bucs passing game as Belichick and the Patriots defense threw different looks and schemes at him throughout. It was an incredible game to watch Brady and his former team play chess on the field. Brady just missed on several big play opportunities that would have led to a better stat line. However, he was unable to find the end zone and ended the night 22/43 for 269 yards, 0 TDs, and 0 INTs. He added 3 yards on the ground on 4 carries. This was Brady’s lowest completion total and yardage total of the season, and the first game he has been kept out of the endzone. Brady and the Bucs passing game will look to rebound this weekend against a Dolphins defense that has given up multiple passing TDs every game for the last three weeks. We have him ranked at QB7 this week against the Dolphins. His next three games include MIA, @PHI, CHI. Brady is our QB8 the rest of the way.
Week 3
Brady looked somewhat human in this game, only throwing for 1 TD on the week. However, that was the only thing that was human as he threw for 432 yards vs. a top-level defense in the Rams. Brady has the best weapons at his disposal since the infamous 2007 campaign and is showing it by leading the NFL in passing TDs and ranking 2nd in passing yards. Most people would point out that a regression is coming, but with the Bucs struggling to find a consistent run game we expect them to keep riding with the pass game.
In Week 4 the Buccaneers take on the Patriots as Brady will face his old team for the first time. If you don’t think Brady will bring it for this game, then not sure if you will ever believe in Brady. Get Brady in all your DFS lineups for Week 4.
Week 2
Brady completed 24 of 36 passes for 276 yards and 5 TDs in the Bucs' 48-25, Week 2 win over the Falcons.
Brady was locked in from the start of the game with an opening TD drive capped off by a score to his old buddy Rob Gronkowski.
Brady went on to throw 4 more TD passes with another going to Gronk, 1 going to Chris Godwin and the other 2 going to Mike Evans.
The Bucs just have too much offense right now as Brady is picking apart defenses at will with the best weapons in the league.
Brady is an every week QB1 and has a great matchup in Week 3 against the Rams in a game that is projected for 56 points.
Week 1
A time traveler from the oughts might not recognize that the story of a man named Brady was not a rerun in 2021. He completed 32 of 50 passes for 379 yards and 4 TDs.

Three of the incomplete passes were thrown out of bounds to stop the clock while setting up a game-winning FG. Brady’s 2 INTs came in the 2nd quarter on a pass off WR Antonio Brown’s hands and a Hail Mary into the end zone on the final play of the 1st half. Dallas was unable to sack Brady.

Whether it’s in reruns or not, we can expect Brady to pull out wins almost every time a rally is needed. Will he be slowed down at age 44 much more than he was slowed down on the way to winning Super Bowl LV at age 43?

On Sunday, he’ll be going against the Falcons, whose 261 passing yards allowed in Week 1 were in the middle of the league.

Basic Stats Preseason Player Analysis

What You Need to Know:

  • Brady led a high-volume pass offense in his debut season with the Bucs. Tampa Bay ranked 3rd in pass rate (62.9%); Brady ranked 2nd in raw attempts (610).
  • Brady overcame a slow start to finish as the QB7 on the strength of 43 total TDs (40 passing). Only Aaron Rodgers tallied more passing scores.
  • Brady’s 6.6% TD rate marked his highest since 2010. A 2.0% INT rate was his highest since 2011.
  • Brady did attack defenses downfield more than expected. His 9.5-yard average depth of target ranked 3rd league-wide. ~15% of his targets traveled 20+ air yards — the 2nd highest rate among 36 QBs with 200+ attempts.
  • Brady earned the 5th best Pro Football Focus passing grade on deep passes (94.2). Clearly, his arm strength didn’t show a major drop-off.
  • Of course, he played alongside a loaded supporting cast, but the Bucs weren’t always at full strength. While Rob Gronkowski and Mike Evans played 16 games, Chris Godwin missed 4, and Antonio Brown only played in 8. Brown didn’t sign until late October.
  • -Each of those guys will return for 2021, while the Bucs also return all 5 O-line starters. Brady saw pressure on just 24.2% of his dropbacks. Only Aaron Rodgers, Philip Rivers and Ben Roethlisberger posted a lower rate.
  • The Bucs added dynamic WR/returner Jaelon Darden in Round 4 of the draft. He’ll start off buried on the depth chart, but he has the big-play skill set to benefit Brady if given opportunities.
  • At 44, Brady will always pose some decline risk. But there simply wasn’t much evidence to forecast a big drop for Brady in 2021.

Draft Sharks Bottom Line

Brady adjusted to a new team about as well as fantasy owners could have hoped. He finished as the QB7 with help from high volume — and a stacked supporting cast. Now, the Bucs run it back with the same 11 (and coaching staff) on offense.

Starting off with favorable matchups vs. Dallas and vs. Atlanta, Brady’s poised for another QB1 campaign.

Recent Shark Bites View All Shark Bites »

Bucs QB Tom Brady (thumb) put in a full practice on Wednesday and isn't listed on the final injury report for Thursday night's game vs. the Eagles. It's impossible to know exactly how big an issue that throwing thumb will be, but everything we've read and heard suggests that we shouldn't alter our fantasy outlook for Brady much, if at all.

View all Tom Brady Shark Bites »

NFL Network's Ian Rapoport confirms that Bucs QB Tom Brady (thumb) "should play" vs. the Eagles on Thursday night. "There's no serious injury at all," Brady said. "It's more of a discomfort." Any injury to a QB's throwing hand is worth monitoring. But at this point, we haven't heard anything to suggest that Brady needs to be benched in fantasy this week.

View all Tom Brady Shark Bites »

Bucs QB Tom Brady hurt his right thumb during Sunday's win over the Dolphins. He didn't miss any snaps in that game and is expected to be fine for Thursday night's game vs. the Eagles, according to NFL Network's Ian Rapoport. This is certainly a situation worth monitoring, but it sounds like Brady can be penciled into Week 6 fantasy lineups for now.

View all Tom Brady Shark Bites »

According to NFL Network’s Ian Rapoport, Bucs QB Tom Brady played last season with a torn MCL. He underwent surgery in February and isn’t in danger of missing time, but it’s certainly a noteworthy piece of news on the 44-year-old (in August). Brady’s ADP is currently inside QB1 range.

View all Tom Brady Shark Bites »

Bucs QB Tom Brady is participating in this week's minicamp after undergoing knee surgery after the Super Bowl. He admitted last month that the knee bothered him most of last season -- which makes his 4,633-yard, 40-TD campaign even more impressive. We'll keep an eye on Brady when training camp opens, but the knee shouldn't be an issue in 2021.

View all Tom Brady Shark Bites »

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