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Tom Brady - Fantasy Points Outlook

Basic Stats Basic Stats

Tom Brady


#8 Quarterback

399 Projected Points

ADP: 7.2
Bye: 9
Experience: 21 Yr(s)
Age: 43
Height: 6'4"
Weight: 225
40 Time: 5.28

2021 Projections & Outlook


#8 Quarterback

399 Projected Points

ADP Comp/Att P Yds P TD INT Att R Yds Fum
7.2 426/646 5039 38 13 30

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Basic Stats Preseason Player Analysis

What You Need to Know:

-Brady led a high-volume pass offense in his debut season with the Bucs. Tampa Bay ranked 3rd in pass rate (62.9%); Brady ranked 2nd in raw attempts (610).

-Brady overcame a slow start to finish as the QB7 on the strength of 43 total TDs (40 passing). Only Aaron Rodgers tallied more passing scores.

-Brady’s 6.6% TD rate marked his highest since 2010. A 2.0% INT rate was his highest since 2011.

-Brady did attack defenses downfield more than expected. His 9.5-yard average depth of target ranked 3rd league-wide. ~15% of his targets traveled 20+ air yards — the 2nd highest rate among 36 QBs with 200+ attempts.

-Brady earned the 5th best Pro Football Focus passing grade on deep passes (94.2). Clearly, his arm strength didn’t show a major drop-off.

-Of course, he played alongside a loaded supporting cast, but the Bucs weren’t always at full strength. While Rob Gronkowski and Mike Evans played 16 games, Chris Godwin missed 4, and Antonio Brown only played in 8. Brown didn’t sign until late October.

-Each of those guys will return for 2021, while the Bucs also return all 5 O-line starters. Brady saw pressure on just 24.2% of his dropbacks. Only Aaron Rodgers, Philip Rivers and Ben Roethlisberger posted a lower rate.

-The Bucs added dynamic WR/returner Jaelon Darden in Round 4 of the draft. He’ll start off buried on the depth chart, but he has the big-play skill set to benefit Brady if given opportunities.

-At 44, Brady will always pose some decline risk. But there simply wasn’t much evidence to forecast a big drop for Brady in 2021.

Draft Sharks Bottom Line

Brady adjusted to a new team about as well as fantasy owners could have hoped. He finished as the QB7 with help from high volume — and a stacked supporting cast. Now, the Bucs run it back with the same 11 (and coaching staff) on offense.

Starting off with favorable matchups vs. Dallas and vs. Atlanta, Brady’s poised for another QB1 campaign.


Recent Shark Bites View All Shark Bites »

According to NFL Network’s Ian Rapoport, Bucs QB Tom Brady played last season with a torn MCL. He underwent surgery in February and isn’t in danger of missing time, but it’s certainly a noteworthy piece of news on the 44-year-old (in August). Brady’s ADP is currently inside QB1 range.

View all Tom Brady Shark Bites »

Bucs QB Tom Brady is participating in this week's minicamp after undergoing knee surgery after the Super Bowl. He admitted last month that the knee bothered him most of last season -- which makes his 4,633-yard, 40-TD campaign even more impressive. We'll keep an eye on Brady when training camp opens, but the knee shouldn't be an issue in 2021.

View all Tom Brady Shark Bites »

Bucs QB Tom Brady admitted that his left knee was an issue throughout last season. "It just took a lot," he said "Every week I was kind of tending to my knee, and I thought I would love to see a season where I can focus on some other strength stuff that I want to do, some other technique stuff where I’m not just focused on protecting my knee all the time." Despite that, Brady threw for 4,633 yards and 40 TDs in his Bucs debut, finishing 7th among QBs in fantasy points. He underwent what he called "pretty serious" knee surgery after the Super Bowl and will resume throwing next week. The knee shouldn't be an issue by the time training camp kicks off, but we'll keep an eye on the soon-to-be 44-year-old.

View all Tom Brady Shark Bites »

The Bucs and QB Tom Brady agreed to a 1-year contract extension. He's now signed through the 2022 season -- but the real reason for this move is the $19 million it saves Tampa against the cap this year. Brady remained plenty effective in 2020, chucking for 4,633 yards and 40 TDs and finishing 7th among QBs in fantasy points. It's certainly possible that he plays at least 2 more seasons with the Bucs.

View all Tom Brady Shark Bites »

Bucs QB Tom Brady will undergo what HC Bruce Arians described as "clean-up" surgery on his left knee. That's the knee in which Brady tore his ACL back in 2008. He hasn't missed a game due to injury since. We'll keep an eye on Brady's status this offseason, but this shouldn't impact his 2021 campaign.

View all Tom Brady Shark Bites »

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