Zack Moss - Fantasy Points Outlook

Bottom Line

Moss heads toward training camp as the better bet to lead Cincinnati RBs in touches and fantasy points. But there’s likely room for Chase Brown to earn a larger role in his second season. Don’t over-invest in either player if you’re drafting early, and we’ll keep close watch throughout the summer.

What We Learned Last Year

• Moss took advantage of multiple injuries to Jonathan Taylor last season, opening the year as Indy’s lead back and scoring the sixth-most PPR points among all RBs over the first five weeks.
• Even with Taylor returning to play 10 games, Moss still wound up 28th among RBs in PPR points per game.
• His fantasy production probably shouldn’t have surprised people as much as it did. Taylor’s injury obviously opened opportunity. And Moss’ quiet finish to his Buffalo stint lowered expectations. But he performed well in 2022 over eight games with the Colts.
  • His 4.3 yards per carry in 2023 actually marked a dip vs. his 4.9 in 2022.
  • Moss also went for fewer yards after contact per carry last season (2.79 vs. 3.04), according to Pro Football Focus.
  • His elusive rating was the second-lowest of his four NFL seasons.
  • His PFF rushing grade checked in near his previous marks but also lowest for his career.
• Moss’ rush yards over expected per carry significantly improved the past two years. His averages by year:
  • 2020: 0.01
  • 2021: -0.78 (second-worst among qualifiers)
  • 2022: 0.28
  • 2023: 0.71 (fifth-best)
• Last year’s Colts ranked 19th in adjusted line yards – yards per carry attributable to blocking. The Bengals finished 23rd.

What to Expect in 2024

• The Bengals saved about $5.75 million by trading Mixon away. They gave Moss a two-year, $8 million contract that includes $4.5 million in Year 1 – right at the start of free agency.
  • The timing tells us they targeted Moss, rather han just “a RB.”
  • The money might not tell us a whole lot. Moss’ $4 million annual average ranked just ninth among free-agent RBs this year, $250K ahead of Antonio Gibson (who got a three-year deal).
• Chase Brown – a fifth-round pick last year – will share the work. He saw limited use as a rookie, with the peak coming late. Brown drew 25.8% carry share and 5.7% target share over the final six games.
  • Mixon garnered 58.9% carry share and 9.1% target share over the same span.
• Moss has never led a team in carries per game.
  • He finished second to Devin Singletary in Buffalo each of his first two years.
  • He trailed three Buffalo teammates before getting traded in 2022.
  • And he followed Jonathan Taylor each of the past two years.
• Moss pointed out in talking to the Cincinnati media early that he has always shared backfield work and is ready to share with Brown.
• Moss did lead Taylor in targets per game last season. Back with the 2021 Bills, he also outperformed Devin Singletary as a receiver, despite trailing Singletary in opportunities.
  • Moss’ PFF receiving grades have been less kind, though, declining each of the past three years (from a weak starting point).
  • Among 70 RBs who drew at least 15 targets last season, Moss ranked 67th in receiving grade.
  • Chase Brown ranked fourth. He also rated terribly in pass-blocking grade, albeit on just eight opportunities. He graded better in that area in college.
• Expect Moss to open as the lead ball carrier. The receiving work could be more up for grabs. It’s also possible that a strong summer for Brown siphons more of Moss’ potential work than even the Bengals planned when signing the vet.
• This will be a key backfield situation to watch in what should get back to being a strong offense. Cincinnati ranked seventh in scoring two straight years before falling to 16th last season with QB Joe Burrow missing nearly half the year.