Chargers look like they plan to lean run

The Chargers have hired Greg Roman as OC. He joins new HC Jim Harbaugh to lead a coaching staff with a run-heavy background. Roman has spent 10 years as an NFL OC with the 49ers (2011-14), Bills (2015-16), and Ravens (2019-22). Nine of those offenses ranked 28th or lower in pass attempts. All 10 ranked among the top 9 in rush attempts, including seven years inside the top 3. It's important to note the starting QBs for those teams. San Francisco (with Harbaugh as HC) transitioned from Alex Smith to Colin Kaepernick midway through 2012. Tyrod Taylor started for those Buffalo teams. And Lamar Jackson was the guy for Roman's full Baltimore run. Justin Herbert is clearly less of a runner than any of those guys and (arguably?) the best passer of the bunch. We wouldn't bet on the new Chargers going as run-heavy as all those previous offenses, but we have to expect more rushing lean than in the past few seasons. L.A. has finished three straight years with rush rates lower than 40%, ranking among the league's most pass-leaning teams. Roman's QBs have tended to pass efficiently. Smith, Kaepernick, and Taylor all posted better net yards per pass attempt under Roman than without him. And Jackson's hyper-efficient 2019 came in Roman's Baltimore debut. The Chargers have a lot more to sort through this offseason before we'll really know what the offense will look like. For now, though, we're lowering the expectation at least a bit for Chargers passing numbers. That said, Justin Herbert already sits just 10th among QBs in Underdog ADP. Feel free to take shots on him at that level, and know that he still carries upside beyond that.