Ravens HC John Harbaugh told reporters Wednesday that RB Keaton Mitchell is not expected back until "sometime during the season," according to ESPN's Adam Schefter. Harbaugh did add that Mitchell's "on schedule" in his recovery from a mid-December ACL tear but won't participate in training camp.
Mitchell's uncertain status makes him a high-risk, low-reward pick in current best ball drafting. He averaged just 9.1 touches per week even at full health last year, never reaching 10 carries in a game. Mitchell's game also relies heavily on speed. He stands just 5'8, 178 pounds and scored last year's two TDs from 40 and 39 yards out.
The low ceiling on Mitchell's workload should affect his long-term projection more than his ACL recovery. Derrick Henry's arrival for 2024 should leave even fewer touches available this season, which could drive Mitchell's dynasty market value down for next offseason. Don't chase him in your dynasty league now. We'll see how things look closer to the end of the season.
The biggest winners right now should be rookie RB Rasheen Ali and RB Justice Hill. Ali should have a better shot at earning early-season touches. He's much closer to Hill in size and college role, so an emerging Ali could pose bigger problems for Hill's work than it would for a healthy Mitchell.
Hill, of course, can also benefit from more available touches if he holds off Ali this summer.
Don't bet on Mitchell's status affecting Henry's role or workload in any meaningful way.
We've knocked another two games off Mitchell's 2024 projection, which pushes him down our RB rankings.
Expect Mitchell to take a hit in best ball ADP as well. He has already been a late-round pick, which should limit the impact. As I said earlier, though, selecting Mitchell at any point loads of risk and limited upside.
The short end of the ACL return window is generally still about nine months. That would be mid-September from Mitchell's mid-December injury. We'll have to see how close he actually gets to that timeline.
Even once he returns to the field, we'll have to see how close Mitchell is to normal speed and explosiveness.
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