I don't know about you, but I have a lot more trouble finding players I want to sell than targets to buy.
I mean, unless they bear obvious warts -- age, declining production, outlier seasons -- my roster is full of my babies. These are guys that have produced for me or flowers just waiting to blossom.
But we can't buy without selling anything. And we can't sell only old dudes or we won't get good stuff in return.
Still, there are some common factors we can look for in potential "sell" candidates. Advancing age is an obvious one, but many times you'll need to make the move when you know the guy probably still has at least 1-2 good seasons left in him. Otherwise, your league mate will share your concern. Expiring player contracts create obvious uncertainty. That can mean either a "buy" opportunity on someone you think could break out with another team, or a "sell" when you think his situation is much more likely to get worse. You'll find some such players listed below.
Obviously, many other deals will grow out of your own areas of roster weakness or strength as well as what's available in your particular league. As always, you can check our up-to-date dynasty rankings to see where we stand on a given player and feel free to email us for insight on a particular offer or scenario. You can also check out this week's podcast for more players that Jared and I are looking to buy or sell in dynasty this offseason.
Here, though, are 10 "sell" candidates we agreed on as a staff ...
Leonard Fournette, RB, Jaguars
Fournette just enjoyed easily his best season for total fantasy points … which is a big part of why you should look into selling him.
What was different for Fournette in 2019? He stayed healthy and caught a ton of passes.
After missing 10 full games and parts of others with injuries (plus another on suspension) over his 1st 2 seasons, Fournette lost only Week 17 to an illness this past season. He still fell 3 carries short of the 13-game total from his rookie season, but Fournette more than doubled his previous high for targets. His 76 receptions ranked 5th at the position and beat his previous best by 40.
What didn’t change for Fournette in 2019? Meager efficiency.
Among 36 RBs with 40+ targets for the season, Fournette ranked 27th in yards per catch, 30th in yards per target, 25th in yards per route run. Despite a career-best 4.3 yards per rush, Football Outsiders rated Fournette just 34th among 45 qualifying RBs in both main rushing-efficiency metrics -- below average/replacement-level performance in each category. Pro Football Focus similarly graded Fournette just 41st in rushing among the 45 RBs with 100+ attempts in 2019.
Over his 3 seasons in the league, Fournette has touched the ball a lot when healthy. He ranks 4th in that span in carries per game and 3rd in touches per game. But among the top 100 RBs in total carries since the start of 2017, Fournette ranks just 66th in non-PPR points per touch and 63rd in PPR points per touch.
In short, he has feasted totally on touch volume.
Fournette now enters the final year of his Jacksonville contract. That should mean another year of strong touch volume (assuming the Jaguars don’t select another RB early in the draft). But will any team invest next spring in a 26-year-old, inefficient RB with a history of lower-body injuries? Even a good 2020 isn’t likely to land Fournette in a workhorse role for the start of his next contract. And should he suffer another injury in the coming season, your “sell” window might close altogether.
Beyond Fournette himself, there are factors that could bring about backfield change in the coming year. Jaguars HC Doug Marrone is likely on his last chance in 2020. He recently changed OCs (to Jay Gruden). And Fournette’s expiring contract at the fore of a shallow backfield could motivate Jacksoville to address the position early this April.
All told, it’s tough to see Fournette’s value outlook improving over what it is right now. Don’t dump him just for the sake of dumping him, as we’d still bet on the veteran back helping fantasy teams as long as he’s healthy in 2020. But we’d also recommend seeing how good a package he might command in your dynasty league.