10-Team PPR Draft Strategy

 

Round-by-Round 10-team Draft Strategy

You’re heading into a 10-team PPR draft. What do you need to know?

Here are two key things …

1) This format favors opportunity volume.

When you’re trying to decide between closely ranked players, lean toward the guy with volume upside.

The leader in targets and/or receptions won’t always be the better fantasy producer. But if you’re weighing them together in your draft, then there’s already at least something about them that makes them similar values.

Select the option with a path to a volume spike, and you’ll get the guy with an easier breakout case.

2) There will be plenty of “good” players for everyone.

What’s that mean? It’s easier in a 10-team league for every manager to start out with a team he/she likes – especially if you only need to start 2 WRs and 2 RBs – than it is in a 12-team draft.

So you can afford to go after a top QB and/or TE rather than stacking WRs and RBs basically whenever you think it makes sense.

But “top” is the key. You want to chase ultimate upside here. That’s where you’ll gain edges.

And if some of those upside targets disappoint, this league size will make it easier to find attractive replacements on waivers.

How Can You Take Advantage of the Format?

It all starts with your Draft War Room.

Use the fantasy football league sync to import all the specific settings from your league. And then as you draft, that Draft War Room will automatically update with every pick.

The result: round-by-round pick recommendations catered to your exact draft situation.

I used the Draft War Room to lay out these pick paths from every area of your 10-team draft. We're going 16 rounds with these lineup settings:

• 1 QB
• 2 RBs
• 2 WRs
• 1 TE
• 1 Flex (RB/WR/TE)
• 1 K
• 1 DST
• 7 bench spots

Just click your draft position to check it out …

 

10-Team PPR Draft Strategy: Pick 1, 2, or 3

Round 1

Top Target: CeeDee Lamb

It’s close between Lamb and McCaffrey at the top of the board, but McCaffrey’s higher injury risk makes it a little less close.

There’s a lot of luck involved to any player navigating an NFL season healthily (or not). The nature of his position leaves McCaffrey needing a bit more luck than Lamb.

Next Best: Christian McCaffrey

That said, McCaffrey’s certainly not killing your team if he stays healthy.

Other Options

Tyreek Hill

Hill checks in a clear third in a less pass-happy offense than Lamb’s.

Our Injury Guide also has Hill projected for slightly more injury risk than Lamb. (We’re splitting hairs at the top of the board.

 

Rounds 2 & 3

Top Targets: Travis Etienne & Drake London

If you opened with Lamb, then Etienne – or our highest projected available RB – should pretty easily lead your recommendations at the end of Round 2.

If you opened with McCaffrey … then it’s probably still Etienne here (or Derrick Henry if he lasted). RB value drops off more precipitously as you move down the draft board.

The Round 3 recommendation will depend on your first two picks. 

If you grabbed a WR and a RB, then Achane might very well lead your Round 3 options. 

If you opened with two RBs, then you’re likely looking at a parade of WRs up top.

Next Best: De’Von Achane & Chris Olave

Leaving Round 3 with at least one RB and one WR looks like the right move. There’s room to play with who that third player is.

Use the Mock Draft Trainer to try different combos to start your draft and see which build you like best.

Of course, if your league starts three WRs instead of two, then getting a pair of wideouts among these first three picks will get more attractive.

Other Options

Marvin Harrison Jr., Nico Collins, Joe Mixon

 

Rounds 4 & 5

Top Targets: Jaylen Waddle & Cooper Kupp

If your draft goes according to current ADP, then this will be a great spot to snag two WRs.

Waddle clearly trails Tyreek Hill in target share and will endure some weekly volatility because of it. But that will include spike weeks thanks to his speed and situation.

Kupp narrowly trailed Puka Nacua in targets when both were in the lineup together last year. In each case, there’s room for two WRs to be supported.

Note: If you already drafted a Dolphin, you should probably lean away from relying on a second this early in your draft.

Next Best: Kenneth Walker & Deebo Samuel

Walker mixes in among the WR options at this turn and looks especially attractive as a RB3.

Walker ranked fifth in the league in carry share last season. If he fills a similar role this year and the offense rebounds under a new coaching staff, he could deliver nice fantasy scores. 

That said, the new staff also brings risk of a role shift. That’s why Walker fits better as a RB3 than RB2.

Other Options

Brandon Aiyuk, D.J. Moore, Malik Nabers, Josh Jacobs

 

Rounds 6 & 7

Top Targets: James Conner & Joe Burrow

ADP might push Conner behind a couple of other RBs in your recommendations. But we rank Conner higher than Swift, Montgomery, and Brooks. And he’s probably not getting back to you late in Round 8.

If you want to target a different RB here, that’s fine. But I’m taking a guy who has finished each of the past three years among the top 12 RBs in PPR points per game.

The Draft War Room would also like you to take a QB around this turn.

Burrow comes up first and finished fourth among QBs in fantasy points last time he was healthy (2022).

Next Best: D’Andre Swift & Dak Prescott

Prescott would fit fine as well, coming off his own QB3 fantasy finish.

Other Options

Jonathan Brooks, David Montgomery, Kyle Pitts, Tee Higgins

If you simply don’t want to draft a QB yet, then Pitts presents intriguing PPR upside. And Higgins can help build out your WR corps.

Don’t expect any of these players to make it to your next turn.

 

Rounds 8 & 9

Top Targets: Jake Ferguson & Jaylen Warren

Upside Mode has kicked on for this turn. That automatically increases the value of the ceiling projections and ceiling likelihood within our 3D Value system to highlight high-upside players the rest of the way.

Ferguson and Warren carry plenty of upside. Ferguson delivered top-9 fantasy numbers in his first full starting season. And his best game didn’t even come until the playoffs (10-93-3).

Warren passed Najee Harris in receiving usage in his second season and outperformed Harris in rushing efficiency for the second straight year.

Next Best: Javonte Williams & Brock Bowers

Williams carries the upside of potentially once again leading the backfield in Sean Payton’s RB-friendly offense.

He slides to this range of the draft because there’s plenty of competition, and he must prove he’s more explosive than last year’s post-ACL version. If he does, Williams could be a steal in this range.

ADP says Williams might make it back to you late in Round 10. But you should only trust that if you’re fine with not getting him.

Bowers’ upside has been plain to see since he was leading Georgia in receiving as a freshman. We’ll see if he can overcome his NFL situation as a rookie at a position that traditionally starts slowly. But the talent is worth betting on at this point.

Other Options

Dallas Goedert, Rashee Rice, Najee Harris, Raheem Mostert, DeAndre Hopkins, Tony Pollard

 

Rounds 10 & 11

Top Targets: Diontae Johnson & Brock Bowers

Johnson arrives with a clear path to leading a needy Panthers offense in targets.

There’s upside to being in that position. There’s upside in the possibility of QB Bryce Young improving under new HC Dave Canales. And there’s upside in the likelihood that the offense will improve after ranking among the worst in the league by varying measures (including 31st in DVOA).

Bowers shows up again here despite my sample team already having a TE rostered.

As I said before, the talent’s simply worth betting on at some point.

Next Best: Jayden Daniels & Tyjae Spears

Daniels climbs near the top of the list even if you already have a QB. You don’t need to take a backup QB at any point in your 10-team draft. But if you do, might as well make it a high-ceiling option.

Spears similarly brings an intriguing ceiling. You’ll want to start him as a reserve, though, until we see exactly how he fits with Pollard. 

And if the latter goes down … Spears could break out.

Other Options

Marquise Brown, Jaxon Smith-Njigba, Xavier Worthy, Christian Watson, Caleb Williams, Rome Odunze

 

Rounds 12 & 13

Top Targets: Caleb Williams & Xavier Worthy

If you didn’t draft a backup QB by now, you’re likely getting one recommended. You still don’t need to select one if you’d prefer not to.

Otherwise, this turn looks WR heavy. The group features different flavors of upside, starting with a first-round rookie set to catch passes from Patrick Mahomes.

Next Best: Justin Herbert & Tyler Lockett

These two could each prove underrated.

In Herbert’s case, it would be a matter of his talent overcoming a run-heavy offense and the losses of his top two WRs.

Lockett needs to overcome an age (32) that historically finds decline in WR production. Plus there’s the challenge of a new coaching staff. But this is late enough to bet on him still being Tyler Lockett.

Other Options

Jared Goff, Trevor Lawrence, Mike Williams, Brian Thomas Jr., Jerry Jeudy, Curtis Samuel

 

Rounds 14, 15 & 16

Top Targets: Upside + K + DST

Time to secure your season-opening kicker and team defense. Your DWR rankings will obviously still help with both.

Our Trust Factor ratings add a layer at DST by favoring positive early-season matchups and devaluing defenses with bad matchups. 

That’s how you should play the position all season rather than trying to find one every-week starter (in most formats).

 

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10-Team PPR Draft Strategy: Pick 4, 5, or 6

Round 1

Top Target: Justin Jefferson

Are you wary of Jefferson this early because of his QB situation? You shouldn’t be.

He only got Kirk Cousins for half of his 2023 outings. Yet Jefferson still ranked fifth in PPR points per game. And that was including the game he left early with a hamstring injury and his limited return game.

Throw out those two, and Jefferson’s 24.1 points per game would have led the position – and beat his own 2022 rate by 2.6 points.

Next Best: Ja’Marr Chase

Chase would be a fine option if you miss out on Jefferson – or even if you simply prefer the Bengal.

Chase gets a boost from Joe Burrow’s healthy return. The WR’s fantasy scoring fluctuated wildly amid last year’s QB issues:

• First four games (Burrow playing through calf injury): WR21
• Next five (with better Burrow): WR3
• Final seven (starting with Burrow injury game): WR33

Other options

Amon-Ra St. Brown, Breece Hall, Bijan Robinson

Three WRs lead the list in this range, but Hall and Robinson trail close behind by 3D Value points.

Play around with the Mock Draft Trainer to see if you prefer the resulting roster from starting with a RB vs. drafting a WR first.

 

Round 2

Top Target: Jahmyr Gibbs

One reason to lean WR in Round 1 is because of all the RBs hanging out in this range.

The specific players who get to you will vary by draft, but it’s a tightly packed group in our rankings.

Gibbs racked up the fifth-most PPR points among RBs from Week 10 on last season. That stretch found him and David Montgomery healthy and sharing the backfield.

Next Best: Kyren Williams

We’ll see what his ADP does through the summer, but you might see Williams make it back to you in Round 3.

Drafters started the year overconfident, drafting this guy in Round 1 of best ball contests off last year’s No. 2 finish in points per game.

But the market has overcorrected, pushing Williams a little too far down in many places – especially after the Rams drafted RB Blake Corum in Round 3.

Other Options

Travis Etienne, Derrick Henry, Isaiah Pacheco, De’Von Achane, Chris Olave, Drake London

 

Round 3

Top Target: De’Von Achane 

Achane reached 20 snaps played in just nine games last year. He finished six of those weeks among the top 15 PPR backs, five among the top 8, and four among the top 5.

You’ll probably still have to deal with more weekly touch volatility than most other early-round RBs. But he’s bound to get the ball more as a sophomore. And we’ve already seen how high the ceiling goes.

Next Best: Drake London

London spent his rookie year ranking sixth among all WRs in target share before last season’s backslide.

He’ll finally get a real NFL QB for the first time this season and a more pass-friendly offense. Atlanta ranked last in the league in neutral-situation pass rate (43.8%) over the past two seasons, according to RBSDM.com.

Other options

Joe Mixon, Josh Jacobs, Nico Collins, Jaylen Waddle

As you can see from the options, this turn can bring you a RB or WR. It’s OK to favor a particular player. Look ahead to see what’s likely to be available at each position going forward.

 

Round 4

Top Targets: Jaylen Waddle

Not much separates these two WRs. Waddle leads in floor projection and edges Kupp in ceiling projection. Kupp leads in baseline and consensus projections.

Either will make for a nice addition to your squad here.

Next Best: Cooper Kupp

Kupp’s likely a better bet for target share. Waddle finished 27th and 30th among WRs in share the past two years.

But he’s also 5.5 years older. And although we’re expecting a bounce back from a healthy cup, there’s a chance he’s starting to decline physically.

In short: Both present upside as well as questions. Each player – and his situation – is worth betting on at this stage, though.

Other options

Josh Jacobs, Rachaad White, D.J. Moore, Brandon Aiyuk

 

Round 5

Top Target: D.J. Moore

Current ADP says Kupp might make it back to you in Round 5. Same for Deebo Samuel. Don’t trust that for either player. If either does get to your Round 5 turn, pounce.

Moore looks similarly good. Sure, he faces more target challenges with the arrivals of Keenan Allen and Rome Odunze. But he also gets a QB upgrade and probably a lot more team pass attempts.

Last year’s Bears ranked just 27th in attempts; second in rushes.

Next Best: Malik Nabers

Nabers carries some risk just by virtue of being a rookie. His landing spot isn’t great. But it does give him a good shot at immediately leading the team in targets – and perhaps dominating.

Getting him as a third WR in a league that starts two would be a nice way to get in on his upside without risking too much.

Other options: 

Rhamondre Stevenson, DeVonta Smith

 

Round 6

Top Target: D’Andre Swift

The Bears gave Swift a top-10 RB salary in free agency. They clearly plan to use him plenty.

He’s coming off a career high in carries (14.3 per game) but a career low in receptions (2.4 per game). Expect that to balance out in Chicago and for the Bears to offer a bit more work near the goal-line than the tush-push Eagles.

Next Best: James Conner

ADP says Conner’s likely to make it back next round. He still makes sense here. But if we can trust that ADP for the format, the expected Round 7 group at RB makes it OK to favor Burrow or Higgins in this spot instead.

Other options

David Montgomery, Jonathan Brooks, Joe Burrow, Tee Higgins

 

Round 7

Top Target: James Conner

Conner finished each of the past three seasons among the top 12 RBs in PPR points per game.

The risk of decline in his age-29 season is baked into this draft price.

Next Best: Kyle Pitts

Just like London earlier, Pitts stands to benefit from dramatic improvements in the Atlanta pass offense.

The fourth-year TE clearly remained limited last season by the knee injury that ended his 2022 prematurely.

Last time we got a full healthy season, Pitts racked up 68 catches for 1,026 yards. That marked just the second time a rookie TE reached 900 yards (Mike Ditka in 1961 the other).

Note: If you drafted London earlier, then adding Pitts to the same lineup probably isn’t maximizing your scoring potential.

Other Options

Jonathon Brooks, David Njoku, Jaylen Warren, Chris Godwin

 

Round 8

Top Targets: Jake Ferguson

If you get here without a TE, then Ferguso makes plenty of sense. He delivered 10 top-12 PPR weeks en route to a No. 9 finish at the position in his first starting turn.

Ferguson ranked second among Cowboys in targets last season and could do so again in 2024.

Next Best: DeAndre Hopkins, Chris Godwin

Each of these wideouts brings a nice record of proven production. And each is probably going later than he should.

Hopkins must contend with the arrival of WR Calvin Ridley but has earned targets at higher rates through most of his career and sports a higher production peak.

Godwin ranked just 37th among WRs in PPR points per game last season. But he checked in 28th in expected PPR points per game and suffered from some bad TD luck.

That scoring average was also his lowest in five years, indicating some bounce-back potential for the 28-year-old. He ranks among the most underrated fantasy football players this draft season.

Other Options

Diontae Johnson, Terry McLaurin, Jordan Love

 

Round 9

Top Target: Jayden Daniels

You can see the effect of Upside Mode at this turn.

Daniels carries a Round 12 ADP for the format as of this writing. But he pops to the top of the draft-board rankings here because of the high fantasy ceiling he presents.

Daniels’ rushing ability boosts his chances of approaching that ceiling more so than if we had to rely primarily on the rookie out-dueling other QBs with his arm.

Next Best: Diontae Johnson

ADP says Johnson will make it to you at this turn and might get back to you next time. Taking him at either spot makes plenty of sense.

Johnson spent five years leading the Steelers in target share and peaked as the PPR WR8 in 2021.

He joins a needy Panthers offense that should see at least some improvement under new HC Dave Canales. He played significant roles the past two years in the resurrections of Geno Smith and Baker Mayfield.

Other Options

Rashee Rice, Raheem Mostert, Jayden Reed

 

Round 10

Top Target: Diontae Johnson

If you grabbed Daniels last round and find Johnson here, then you’ve had a nice mid-draft turn. Both players carry upside well beyond their draft positions and could become weekly starters.

Next Best: Javonte Williams

If you reach this turn not needing – or just not wanting – a wideout, then Williams fits as well.

He’ll face competition for touches heading into the season and isn’t a lock to lead the 2024 backfield as clearly as he did in Sean Payton’s first season. 

But if Williams does maintain his role, we should get a more explosive version now that he’s a year further beyond the 2022 knee injury.

Other Options

Marquise Brown, Jaxon Smith-Njigba, Xavier Worthy, Christian Watson

The pack of WRs surrounding Williams here shows that this round is a good time to address that position – even if you don’t fancy Diontae Johnson.

 

Round 11

Top Target: Brock Bowers

Even if you get here with a TE already rostered, you’re likely to see Bowers around the top of your board.

That’s the value of a top-12 TE still being available plus the Upside Mode boost.

Bowers certainly is no lock to produce right away, with some combo of Aidan O’Connell and Gardner Minshew at QB. But he already delivered right away – and hugely – at Georgia. 

So making a modest bet on that talent continuing to win seems like a fine idea.

Next Best: Dallas Goedert

You don’t need to take a second TE in your 10-team league, but Goedert makes sense as a No. 2 if you do.

If you waited on a starter, you could platoon two guys with lower-level TE1 outlooks.

Or you could even wait until this point in your draft to take your first, and then decide whether to add a second over the ensuing rounds.

Pairing Pat Freiermuth with Bowers or Goedert would give you nice upside at the position.

Other Options

Devin Singletary, Jaxon Smith-Njigba, Kendre Miller

 

Round 12

Top Target: Caleb Williams

This is a good time for a backup QB, especially if you drafted Jayden Daniels as your first.

You’re more likely to get a backup-QB recommendation with Daniels rostered than other top QBs because he checks in lower on our new Trust Factor scale.

That’s a measure we use – on a 1-5 scale – to indicate how “safe” a player is. While we love Daniels’ upside, there’s no denying he presents some risk … simply because he’s new to the NFL.

Next Best: Justin Herbert

You don’t need to insure against that risk in your draft. Nearly all 10-team leagues will continue to present QB options on waivers throughout the season.

But drafting insurance behind a player such as Daniels makes more sense than rostering a second QB behind someone who has proved to be a dependable weekly fantasy performer.

Other Options

Jared Goff, Trevor Lawrence, Xavier Worthy, Courtland Sutton

 

Round 13

Top Target: Mike Williams 

The pick in this round can come down to what you want …

Do you dig a proven NFL producer who should sport some TD upside with a healthy Aaron Rodgers at a cheap draft price?

Next Best: Jameson Williams

Want to buy in on the breakout potential and building buzz of this former first-round pick in Year 3 with one of the league’s top offenses?

Other options

Brian Thomas Jr., Jerry Jeudy, Curtis Samuel

Even if you don’t favor – or get a shot at – either Williams here, you’ll still find options with plenty of upside vs. their Round 13 price tags.

Good time to stash a WR.

 

Rounds 14-16

Top Targets: Upside + K + DST

Use these final three rounds for one more Upside play at any position plus your initial starter at kicker and defense.

I say “initial” because neither is a position where you should stay married to your draft pick all year.

Sure, you might land a quality kicker in a good offense and roll with him until his bye arrives. But also don’t be afraid to adjust in season if you see a guy at the top of the weekly kicker rankings and available on your waiver wire. (We actually have a kicker projections model.)

As for team defense: You should look to leverage good matchups (and avoid bad ones) over trying to ride a single D all year.

We’ve set up the Trust Factor for DST to favor positive early matchups and downgrade defenses with troublesome openers.

 

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10-Team PPR Draft Strategy: Pick 7 or 8

Round 1

Top Target: Justin Jefferson

If either Jefferson or St. Brown makes it to you in this range, you should feel like you’re getting away with robbing a jewelry store.

Jefferson endured a rough 2023 that included losing seven games to a hamstring injury and losing his QB to an Achilles’ tear while he was out.

The stud still checked in fifth among WRs in PPR points per game – even including the game he left early for injury and his limited return outing.

Next Best: Amon-Ra St. Brown

St. Brown was one of the four WRs who finished ahead of Jefferson.

His two full seasons as a starter have found him seventh and third among WRs in total PPR points – and that’s with a game missed each year.

Other Option

Puka Nacua

Nacua’s likely next on your board if all three of these wideouts make it to your turn. But you can see by his 3D Value that there’s a gap between the Ram and the two players above.

 

Round 2

Top Target: Jahmyr Gibbs

The upside with Gibbs outweighs the risk, especially in PPR.

What’s the biggest concern? That he doesn’t get enough work to produce consistently for you.

Well, he finished eighth in PPR points per game as a rookie, despite:

• Starting the season with a more limited role
• Losing two games to a hamstring injury
• Sharing with David Montgomery

Are the Lions going to give less work in Year 2 to a guy they drafted 12th overall? Not likely.

Is the offense about to crash after finishing two straight years among the top 5 in points and yards and then retaining their hot-name OC? Also not likely.

Next Best: Kyren Williams

Williams isn’t guaranteed to reprise his role as workhorse for the Rams. But HC Sean McVay has tended to lean on one RB more than deploying a committee.

Williams ran efficiently in 2023 and led the position in opportunity share. He could come down some in either or both of those areas and still pay off.

Other Option

Travis Etienne

Etienne performed less efficiently in 2023 than the other two RBs mentioned in this round. But he ranked seventh in opportunity share and faces no new backfield challenges.

There’s upside to his offense on whole as well. The Jags dipped from 10th in scoring and yards in HC Doug Pederson’s first season to 13th in each category last year.

 

Round 3

Top Target: De’Von Achane 

Achane is the lower-floor version of Jahmyr Gibbs.

You’ll have to put up with weekly volatility … but that means high spikes to go with the dips. 

Achane reached 20 snaps played in just nine games last year. He finished five of those among the top 8 PPR backs; four among the top 5.

Next Best: Drake London

London should be the favorite to lead the rebuilt Falcons in targets. 

He ranked sixth among all WRs in target share as a rookie just two years ago.

And Kirk Cousins – even coming off a torn Achilles’ tendon – should be a dramatic upgrade over Marcus Mariota/Desmond Ridder/Taylor Heinicke.

Other Options

James Cook, Rachaad White

 

Round 4

Top Target: Jaylen Waddle

Waddle disappointed relative to his high ADP last year, finishing just 22nd among WRs in PPR points per game. 

But he landed 14th in the same role the year before. And he actually ranked higher in expected PPR points per game last year (19th) than in 2022 (27th).

Next Best: Cooper Kupp

We all should have been a bit more wary of Kupp heading into last season, given the summer hamstring trouble.

But barring any physical issues this summer, there’s no reason to believe he can’t rebound.

His 14.6 PPR points per game across 11 healthy outings last year would have ranked 20th at the position for the season. 

That, of course, followed two straight seasons as the top per-game scorer.

Other Options

Nico Collins, Josh Jacobs, Deebo Samuel, D.J. Moore

 

Round 5

Top Target: WR

We’re going position over specific name to account for the ADP variability here.

Current ADP says you could have a shot at Kupp, Samuel, or Moore here. If any of those three gets to you, click him.

If all three are gone, Malik Nabers pops up as the top recommendation. This is late enough to grab the rookie, too – especially if you only start two wideouts.

Next Best: Rhamondre Stevenson

Stevenson faces a challenge for receptions with Antonio Gibson’s arrival. But he also got a $9 million-per-year extension in June.

That shows New England’s continued commitment to its lead back, who should be squarely in his prime at 26.

Our historical aging-curve research shows that nearly all RB archetypes produce at 94% of their peak or better in their age-26 season.

Other Options

DeVonta Smith, Aaron Jones, Trey McBride, Tee Higgins

 

Round 6

Top Target: Rhamondre Stevenson

If you didn’t take Stevenson last turn and get another shot, then it becomes even easier to take him.

Next Best: D’Andre Swift

This range of RB – if Stevenson’s gone – gets a little trickier.

The ordering will vary by ADP at the time of your draft, as well as exactly who remains on the board.

This is also an OK turn at which to ignore the RB recommendation and target another position. Because the options should remain similar for at least one more turn.

Other Options

James Conner, David Montgomery, Jonathan Brooks, Dalton Kincaid

 

Round 7

Top Target: David Njoku

The Draft War Room tends to lean away from the top couple of tiers at TE for 10-team leagues. Part of that is Njoku and Jake Ferguson looking solid-to-strong in this range of your draft.

You can also approximate top-level TE production by pairing TEs from this point on in your draft, and then either leaning on whichever performs better or platooning the duo based on matchups and team performance.

Next Best: James Conner

Conner’s bound to wind down at some point. But he enters this season off three straight finishes among the top 12 RBs in PPR points per game.

He also carries an $8 million cap hit and no signal that the Cardinals plan to significantly shrink his role.

If that changes this summer, we’ll adjust.

Other Options

Jonathon Brooks, Jake Ferguson, Chris Godwin

 

Round 8

Top Target: Jaylen Warren

Warren has outperformed Najee Harris in rushing efficiency each of his two seasons with the team. Last year saw him take the primary backfield receiving role away from Harris.

What does Year 1 under OC Arthur Smith look like? We’ll see.

But we know that he has hosted run-friendly offenses through five seasons as OC-then-HC across two stops.

Next Best: Raheem Mostert

Mostert scored the third-most PPR points per game among RBs last year. Clearly, no one expects him to repeat that production, fueled by an obscene 21 total TDs.

But the market seems to be overcorrecting, drafting him 28th among RBs so far by best ball ADP.

That makes Mostert one of the most undervalued RBs on the board by our ADP Market Index.

Other Options

Najee Harris, DeAndre Hopkins, Chris Godwin, Christian Kirk

 

Round 9

Top Target: Jayden Daniels

Upside Mode kicks on for this turn, and that makes Daniels a prime target for any roster that gets here without a QB.

Upside Mode incorporates all the same factors that have driven your 3D Values to this point. But it enhances the emphasis on ceiling projections and ceiling likelihood.

Why? Because the further you get into your draft, the more you should be targeting high-upside players and ignoring their downside risk.

Disappointing performers in this range and beyond can more easily be dropped for emergent waiver options. 

The late-rounders who deliver, though? They win championships.

Next Best: Diontae Johnson

You can play with how you order Johnson and Daniels over these two turns.

Current ADP says Daniels will linger on the board longer. So if you want both, it’s probably better to start by taking Johnson.

Really, though, you can just take your favorite between them first – the one you’ll shed tears over missing.

Other Options

Jayden Reed, Raheem Mostert

 

Round 10

Top Target: Diontae Johnson

The upside case for Johnson gets easier to make the longer he lingers on the board.

He’s coming off five straight seasons of leading the Steelers in targets per game. Now he goes to a Panthers team that really needs him to do the same.

The biggest question isn’t the wideout, but how much upside QB Bryce Young can actually support.

Well, a 33-year-old Adam Thielen finished 17th among PPR wideouts last year – in one of the league’s worst offenses, and with Young performing as one of the league’s worst QBs.

Next Best: Javonte Williams

Williams would be risky earlier in your draft as one of your RB starters. But like Johnson, he gets easier to like the later we go.

Williams’ situation will bear watching through the summer, to see exactly what role Denver plans for him. But we should gain clarity in that area before most leagues draft.

Other Options

Marquise Brown, Jaxon Smith-Njigba, Tony Pollard 

 

Round 11

Top Target: Brock Bowers

Remember that tip about potentially pairing TEs? Here’s where you can start considering a second.

No one’s excited about Bowers landing with the Raiders. But his talent is undeniable and turned into immediate production at Georgia.

He joins an offense whose dominant target leader heads into his age-32 season. That year traditionally carries risk of hitting a production cliff, according to our player-aging research.

Next Best: Dallas Goedert

Goedert’s the higher-floor, lower-ceiling alternative to Bowers. Feel free to favor him over the rookie or pass on both and look to Pat Freiermuth around the next turn.

Other Options

Devin Singletary, Jaxon Smith-Njigba, Kendre Miller, Chase Brown, Xavier Worthy

 

Round 12

Top Target: Caleb Williams

Did you take Jayden Daniels as your lead QB? If so, then you’re more likely to get a backup recommended in this range.

That’s because Daniels carries a lower Trust Factor than many other QBs on our list.

It’s obviously not that we don’t like the rookie. (Just check his position in our QB rankings.)

The low Trust Factor simply indicates that we don’t know what we can expect from him as much as we do with the more proven QBs. So a backup makes sense, just in case Daniels doesn’t deliver.

Caleb Williams Set Up to Succeed

This other rookie, of course, is also no lock to deliver in 2024. But the Bears have set Williams up well by adding Keenan Allen, Rome Odunze, and D’Andre Swift to D.J. Moore.

Williams looks especially good if you can get him as a fantasy backup and suffer nothing if he doesn’t produce.

Next Best: Justin Herbert

Herbert’s likely to linger even longer in your draft because of the new run-leaning offense and purging of his WRs.

But at some level, it’s worth simply betting on the QB’s talent. This is that point.

All that said, you don’t need to draft a second QB in your 10-team league if you don’t want to. There will be options on waivers.

Other Options

Xavier Worthy, Courtland Sutton, Tyler Lockett, Jared Goff

 

Round 13

Top Target: Mike Williams 

It’s OK to be wary of Williams with a new team and coming off an ACL tear. But that’s why he’s lingering well into the double-digit rounds.

At this point, you’re risking next to nothing by taking a shot that he emerges as the Jets’ No. 2 target and a preferred end-zone option for Aaron Rodgers.

Next Best: Brian Thomas Jr.

Same deal for a different fantasy entity here.

None of us can really know what 2024 holds for the Jaguars’ first-round WR. But Thomas enters an offense with no alpha target hog.

Calvin Ridley’s departure leaves more work behind than Gabe Davis tended to command before he moved from Buffalo to Jacksonville.

Other Options

Jerry Jeudy, Curtis Samuel, Jakobi Meyers

 

Rounds 14-16

Top Targets: Upside + K + DST

Use this range to add one more upside player at whatever position makes sense for your roster.

Then grab your season-opening kicker and defense.

I emphasize “season opening” because you shouldn’t stay married to your drafted starter at either position.

Tools Help You Make the Right Pick

We’ve built the Trust Factor on team defenses to boost those options with good early matchups and downgrade those in poor spots.

That’s how you should play the position throughout the year, rather than looking to rely on a single DST.

Our Free Agent Finder will help guide those weekly plays throughout the season. It's just one of many fantasy football tools built to help you win.

 

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10-Team PPR Draft Strategy: Pick 9 or 10

Rounds 1 & 2

Top Target: Puka Nacua & Jonathan Taylor

Feel free to mix and match among the six players highlighted at this first turn.

Your biggest takeaway should be that starting your draft with a WR and a RB around the 1-2 is likely to treat you best.

Nacua operated as the target leader even when Cooper Kupp returned last year, including a big 9-181-1 receiving line in the playoff loss at Detroit.

Taylor has yet to share the field with QB Anthony Richardson and figures to lose some TDs to the big guy. But if the offense gets stronger overall, the workhorse RB will surely benefit.

Next Best: Garrett Wilson & Jahmyr Gibbs

Wilson finally gets a good QB after two years with Zach Wilson & the Wonders.

He turned into a target hog last year, ranking seventh in the league in target share. That gives him a nice PPR floor – as long as Aaron Rodgers stays healthy.

Gibbs has already proved he can produce despite sharing the backfield. From Week 10 on last season (when he and Montgomery were both healthy), Gibbs ranked fifth among all RBs in PPR points.

Other Options

A.J. Brown, Saquon Barkley

 

Rounds 3 & 4

Top Targets: De’Von Achane & Drake London

Following your WR/RB start with a similar turn looks good for a lineup that starts two players at each position.

Achane will give you some weeks with frustratingly low touch totals. But even that’s bound to improve vs. last year, when he reached 20 snaps played in just nine games. He finished four of those among the top 5 PPR backs.

London looks like the top target bet for an offense that should throw a lot more after ranking last in neutral pass rate over the past two years.

And those passes should look a lot better from Kirk Cousins than they did from the Mariota-Ridder-Heinicke monster.

Next Best: Josh Jacobs & Jaylen Waddle

Jacobs’ new contract says “workhorse.” HC Matt LaFleur’s history – and his offseason words – say he favors multiple backs over leaning too heavily on one guy.

Either way, Jacobs steps into a situation that has proved friendly to RB production across LaFleur’s five Green Bay seasons.

Jacobs needs to rebound from poor efficiency last season. But he also plays a position at which touch volume matters more than per touch efficiency – at least for regular fantasy production.

A Sneaky Waddle Stat

If you drafted Waddle last year, then you probably got a disappointing return on your investment. But at least part of that was bad luck.

He actually improved in expected PPR points per game vs. 2022, climbing from 27th in that category to 19th.

That points to bounce-back upside in 2024. Waddle finished eighth among PPR wideouts in 2022.

Other Options

Cooper Kupp, James Cook, Deebo Samuel, Nico Collins

 

Rounds 5 & 6

Top Targets: Malik Nabers & Rhamondre Stevenson

Why not run it back with the WR-RB pairing?

This duo features a rookie with a clear path to immediately dominating his team in target share and a 26-year-old (prime age) RB who just got a $9 million-per-year extension from a team that’ll need to lean on him.

Next Best: DeVonta Smith & Aaron Jones

Nabers and/or Stevenson already gone by your turn? (Or maybe you just don’t want either/both?) This duo looks solid-to-strong as well.

We know what Smith is: a very good – and still young – wideout who will trail A.J. Brown in target share but produce efficiently.

Jones is a proven commodity as well but enters a new situation.

As long as he can avoid steep decline at 29 (until Dec. 2), Jones appears to be well set up in an offense that ranked 10th in yards last year.

He’ll share the rushing work with Ty Chandler to some degree but should dominate receiving work.

Other Options

Tee Higgins, Trey McBride

 

Rounds 7 & 8

Top Targets: James Conner & David Njoku

If you get here with three RBs and three WRs, then the Draft War Room will probably really want you to get your TE and another RB.

This pairing gives you:

• a RB off three straight top-12 finishes in PPR points per game
• a TE who ranked 10th and sixth in PPR points the past two years

Next Best: Jake Ferguson & Raheem Mostert

This pairing, meanwhile, features two dudes who finished among the top 9 scorers at their positions.

Ferguson’s being drafted around where he finished (TE9) but rated even better in 2023 expected PPR points (TE7) and saved his best performance for the playoffs (10-93-3 on 12 targets).

Mostert’s clearly bound for regression from his RB3 finish in PPR points per game. But his ADP (RB28 as of this writing) is over-correcting for that.

Other Options

Jaylen Warren, Najee Harris, Javonte Williams, Tony Pollard, Brock Bowers, Dallas Goedert

 

Rounds 9 & 10

Top Targets: Jayden Daniels & Diontae Johnson

Upside Mode has turned on for this turn, placing more emphasis on our ceiling projections and projected likelihood of a player hitting that ceiling.

Frankly, though, this duo looks good from either a ceiling or floor perspective.

Daniels’ Rushing Makes Him Safer

The rookie QB’s upside clearly relies heavily on his rushing ability. But those yards will also help his weekly floor.

Just two QBs averaged 50+ rushing yards per game last season: Lamar Jackson and Justin Fields. Only three more reached 30 per game.

Daniels looks like a strong candidate for that 50+ range, which would give him a 3+ point weekly floor advantage over most QBs.

Johnson Brings Proven Production

The new Panthers WR led Pittsburgh in targets per game for each of his five seasons. That included two years among the league’s top 15 WRs in target share.

He should find a similar role in a needy Panthers offense. And we’ve already seen Johnson peak as PPR WR8 in 2021, with a 39-year-old Ben Roethlisberger chucking passes.

Next Best: Jayden Reed & Caleb Williams

Speaking of upside, Reed cracked the top 30 fantasy WRs and led his team in targets per game as a rookie.

Even if his role doesn’t grow in Year 2, he’s closer to his floor at ADP than his ceiling.

Williams presents a wide range of potential outcomes in his first season. But that includes an attractive ceiling in an offense built up to help him right away.

Other Options

Brock Bowers, Marquise Brown, Jaxon Smith-Njigba, Tyjae Spears, Austin Ekeler, Zack Moss,

 

Rounds 11 & 12

Top Targets: Brock Bowers & Devin Singletary

Even if you drafted a TE already, Bowers makes sense as an upside stash.

If his lackluster offense and QB situation drag him down, he’ll be droppable. If they don’t, you might have a gem to platoon with your other low-level TE1.

Singletary is a known quantity but could see a career-high workload with the Giants.

They gave him a three-year deal to reunite with HC Brian Daboll, who OC’d the Bills during Singletary’s early years.

Next Best: Jaxon Smith-Njigba & Kendre Miller

JSN has already sounded optimistic for his role under the new coaching staff. 

We’ll see whether it’s enough to propel him into fantasy relevance, but he’s easier to take a shot on this deep in your draft.

This summer should tell us more about how ready Miller is to seize his opportunity. But that opportunity is clear, with Alvin Kamara 29 and coming off poor rushing and receiving efficiency.

Other Options

Chase Brown, Xavier Worthy, Zach Charbonnet, Keon Colean, Courtland Sutton

 

Rounds 13 & 14

Top Targets: Justin Herbert & Mike Williams

This range looks good for QB insurance, especially if you started with Jayden Daniels or Caleb Williams.

You don’t need to select a backup in your 10-team draft. But it’s fine to do so behind a rookie starter.

Next Best: Jared Goff & Brian Thomas Jr.

Williams vs. Thomas at this turn gives you the choice between:

• a proven vet going late because of an ACL recovery and team switch
• a rookie with a wide range of potential outcomes

Neither is a wrong answer on draft day. And if you don’t like either, you’ll find more WR options (and another QB) below.

Other Options

Jerry Jeudy, Curtis Samuel, Jakobi Meyers, Gabe Davis, Trevor Lawrence

 

Rounds 15 & 16

Top Targets: K + DST

We still do full-season projections for these positions, but that’s not how you should draft them.

In most formats, you’ll want to cycle through defenses and kickers during the season to take advantage of good matchups and avoid bad ones. Very few options at either position score consistently.

We’ve found a way to weight your draft rankings to favor those defenses with better early matchups. So you can trust that we’re factoring that into your draft rankings.

Kicker is a little different in that you can do well by riding a kicker in a top offense. But that’s also a position not enough fantasy players look to stream. Just don’t go too hard after any kicker, and use our weekly kicker rankings in season to help guide your lineup setting.

 

Build Your 10-Team Draft Strategy

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The Draft War Room will sync with your league and guide you through your draft -- for any format.

Learn more about the industry's most powerful draft assistant in this video.