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10-Team Half-PPR Draft Strategy

By Matt Schauf | Updated on Wed, 10 Jul 2024 . 10:08 PM EDT
De'Von Achane could be a key piece of your 10-team half-PPR draft strategy.

How to Win Your Draft

What’s the best strategy for a 10-team, half-PPR draft? Let’s break that down …

Drafting in a 10-team league vs. 12 means more value in securing a top player at a certain spot. 

You gain more advantage from locking up the No. 1 QB or TE, for example, when there are fewer teams than you do when the league is larger.

There’s not quite as much emphasis here on those one-starter positions, though, as you’ll find in an eight-team setup.

Playing half-PPR decreases the impact of receiving volume vs. full-PPR formats. 

You’ll still tend to favor higher-volume pass-catchers, because more opportunities generally means more production. But the format plays friendlier to efficient producers, guys who do a better job of turning targets into yards and TDs. It’s less kind to the WRs who load up on short-range receptions.

But it also lessens the heavy TD reliance that you find in non-PPR setups.

Your specific draft strategy will depend on the specifics of your draft.

That’s why we start this process with the industry’s best fantasy draft cheat sheet: the Draft War Room.

It syncs directly with your redraft league to import your scoring and lineup settings. Then it tracks the action – in real time – throughout your draft, constantly recalculating player values as you go to deliver updated pick recommendations at every turn.

For this article, I manually set up a Draft War Room for 10 teams, half-PPR scoring and these lineup settings:

  • 1 QB
  • 2 RBs
  • 2 WRs
  • 1 TE
  • 1 Flex (RB/WR/TE)
  • 1 K
  • 1 DST
  • 7 bench spots

Then I ran through a 16-round draft from each pick zone to lay out the best strategy from any position.

To find the strategy appropriate to your draft position, see below …

Select Your Draft Spot:

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10

 

Christian McCaffrey should rank among the top 3 picks in your 10-team half-PPR draft strategy.

10-Team Half-PPR Draft Strategy: Pick 1, 2, or 3

Round 1

Top Target: CeeDee Lamb

Lamb and McCaffrey sit basically tied for the top spot in this format, with a bigger step down to No. 3 Hill in 3D Value. All three are obviously coming off tremendous seasons. Lamb beats Hill thanks primarily to a more pass-happy offense (eighth in attempts last year vs. 20th).

Next Best: Christian McCaffrey

Taking McCaffrey over Lamb at the top spot would be just fine. The best way to determine your favorite option would be to run multiple mock drafts starting with each guy, to see how you like the roster builds that follow.

Of course, we’ll be running through the rest of a draft from up top right here to show you how it can go.

Other options: Tyreek Hill

 

Rounds 2 & 3

Top Targets: Travis Etienne, Drake London

Whether you start with Lamb or McCaffrey, Etienne likely leads the recommendations at this turn.

Etienne’s efficiency dipped in 2023, but he saw workhorse usage. Etienne ranked seventh among RBs in opportunity share and half-PPR points per game. And the Jaguars have finished among the top 13 in yards and points for two straight years.

London looks like a top fantasy football breakout candidate for 2024. The biggest issue: He’s so popularly viewed that way that he might well be gone before this stage of your draft.

There will be other WR candidates, though.

Next Best: Deebo Samuel, Chris Olave, Marvin Harrison Jr., De’Von Achane

If you started your draft with Lamb, you could come away from this turn with Etienne and Achane – or Isiah Pacheco – as your top two RBs, which would be solid. Or you could go McCaffrey and follow with two of these WRs. Either should give you an upside base.

ADP for this format might keep Samuel from popping to the top of your recommendations, depending on when you’re drafting. But he sits 10th behind Drake London in our half-PPR WR rankings. Don’t trust that he’ll stick around for your next turn if he’s the guy you want.

Samuel ranked ninth among WRs in half-PPR points per game last year.

Other Options

Nico Collins, Isiah Pacheco, Mike Evans, Jaylen Waddle

 

Rounds 4 & 5

Top Targets: Kenneth Walker, Jaylen Waddle

Even if you get here with two RBs and one WR, there’s a chance Walker edges the WR options at the end of Round 4. He beats the next crop of RBs in:

  • Baseline projection
  • Floor projection
  • Ceiling projection
  • Consensus projection

And Walker could benefit if the Seattle offense gains explosiveness with the switch to an OC who helped the Washington Huskies rack up yardage and points over the past two years.

Of course, this will also depend on whether your draft goes according to ADP for the format. If your league favors WRs more through the first three rounds, you could find a different batch of names here.

Next Best: Cooper Kupp, Brandon Aiyuk

If this collection of WRs actually reaches you at the 4-5 turn, then you should be sure to grab at least one – and maybe two.

Kupp carries enticing bounce-back potential if he enters this season healthy. Aiyuk’s contract situation will bear watching through the summer. But he obviously showed his potential by scoring as the WR14 in half-PPR points per game in 2023.

Other Option

D.J. Moore

 

Rounds 6 & 7

Top Targets: Tee Higgins, Joe Burrow

Combining Cincinnati’s QB and No. 2 WR at this turn would be fun. And the uncertainty around Higgins’ status helps his chances of falling to this range.

Higgins has signed his franchise-tag tender, which indicates he’ll report to training camp on time. Sure, he carries injury risk. But he also finished WR14 in half-PPR points per game in each of Burrow’s past two healthy seasons (2021 and 2022).

You could do worse than leaving Round 7 with Burrow, 3 RBs, and 3 WRs for a team that only needs to start two at those two spots.

Next Best: Dak Prescott, James Conner

Just don’t want Tee Higgins? That’s OK. But there’s a tier break between him and the next set of WRs likely to be available here.

Conner would make for a nice RB3, especially at cost. He has finished three straight seasons among the top 11 RBs in half-PPR points per game.

And Prescott arrives as a perennially underrated fantasy QB. You might not even realize that he finished last season third in total points.

Other Options

David Montgomery, Kyle Pitts, Johnathon Brooks, D’Andre Swift

 

Rounds 8 & 9

Top Targets: Jayden Daniels, Jake Ferguson

If you pass on QB until this turn, then Daniels likely leads your pick recommendations.

ADP says you don’t need to take him yet, but the rookie makes for a strong play here. Upside Mode kicks in at this stage of your draft and plays a big role in pushing Daniels to the top.

His rushing ability gives him top-6 upside at the position – and you a potential advantage at QB, especially if Daniels hits from this late in your draft.

Ferguson pretty easily beats the next TEs on floor (over Brock Bowers) and ceiling (over Dallas Goedert)

Next Best: Rashee Rice, Javonte Williams

We’re all still awaiting a league decision on Rice’s potential suspension. That’s likely to affect his ADP somehow. At the moment, he looks like a risk worth taking at market cost. Rice finished last regular season outscoring Travis Kelce as Patrick Mahomes’ top target.

Williams similarly carries some risk that’s baked into his price. His efficiency lagged in 2023, but that was no surprise given his return from a serious knee injury.

If Williams retains a clear lead role in an RB-friendly offense – 10th most half-PPR points in 2023; 15 more receptions than any other team’s RBs – then he could smash from this draft position.

TIP

Read more on Javonte Williams plus 8 other underrated fantasy football players.

Other Options

Raheem Mostert, Tony Pollard, Brock Bowers, DeAndre Hopkins, Najee Harris

 

Rounds 10 & 11

Top Targets: Xavier Worthy, Kendre Miller

If you get to this point without a QB or TE, then go ahead and fill those gaps. If you’ve already drafted starters at every position, though, you should be focused on upside plays.

That’s what you’ll find in this first-round WR set to work with Patrick Mahomes and second-year RB who would benefit if Alvin Kamara declines.

You could even pair Worthy with an earlier Rashee Rice pick to chase Chiefs WR production regardless of how Rice’s situation plays out.

Next Best: Jaxon Smith-Njigba, Devin Singletary

JSN features similar upside at WR. He still must contend with D.K. Metcalf and Tyler Lockett. But Lockett heads into his age-32 season. Our aging-curve research shows that age historically brings potential for a WR to reach a production cliff.

Lockett’s mortality aside, Smith-Njigba has already indicated that the new offense of OC Ryan Grubb will prove more favorable to the young WR than last year’s version.

Singletary presents a different kind of upside. He’s a limited player, but the Giants paid him like they expect him to clearly lead the backfield. Singletary could deliver regular starter production on the strength of his workload – even if his offense and O-line remain weak.

Other Options

Brock Bowers, Caleb Williams, Rome Odunze, Chase Brown

 

Rounds 12 & 13

Top Targets: Caleb Williams, Mike Williams

You don’t need to draft a second QB in your 10-team league. You’re more likely to get a second one recommended if you take Jayden Daniels as your starter. That’s because we’ve given him a low Trust Factor rating.

Daniels presents exciting upside. But he’s also a rookie whose passing stats exploded in his final (fifth) college season. And he steps into a Washington offense that doesn’t surround him with exciting talent.

That means a wide range of potential outcomes, including a lower floor than plenty of other QBs. Trust Factor deals with that by increasing the value of backup-QB options in your draft. And Williams would certainly fit well in that role.

All that said, you should also be able to find insurance QBs on the waiver wire of a 10-team league throughout the season.

Next Best: Brian Thomas Jr., Jerry Jeudy

Beyond considering backups at QB and/or TE, you should be focused on upside bench options at WR and RB. Feel free to favor whichever position your team needs more – or to lean toward favorite players at either spot.

The most important tip: Don’t stay married to any guys you draft in this range. Your league will have value plays emerge from early-season waivers. Be willing to dump some of your late picks to grab them.

Other Options

Gabe Davis, Curtis Samuel, Rashid Shaheed, Chase Brown

 

Rounds 14-16

Top Targets: Upside + K + DST

Time to secure your season-opening kicker and team defense. Your DWR rankings will obviously still help with both.

Our Trust Factor ratings add a layer at DST by favoring positive early-season matchups – and devaluing defenses with bad initial matchups. That’s how you should play the position all season rather than trying to find one every-week starter (in most formats).

 

De'Von Achane presents big upside in the early rounds of your 10-team half-PPR draft strategy.

10-Team Half-PPR Draft Strategy: Pick 4, 5, or 6

Round 1

Top Target: Justin Jefferson

A year ago, Jefferson went as the clear top overall pick in PPR and half-PPR drafts. Then he lost seven games to injury … but also scored the fourth-most half-PPR points per game at the position, despite playing half his season with Nick Mullens/Joshua Dobbs/Jaren Hall as QB.

No one’s excited about this year’s Sam Darnold-J.J. McCarthy combo. But Jefferson still retains the upside to lead his position in fantasy points. And now you can get him in the middle or even second half of Round 1.

Next Best: Ja’Marr Chase

Just 5 total fantasy points separate Chase, Jefferson, and Amon-Ra St. Brown in our half-PPR rankings. You can’t really go wrong among the three.

Chase gets a boost from Joe Burrow’s healthy return. The WR’s fantasy scoring fluctuated wildly amid last year’s QB issues:

  • First four games (Burrow playing through calf injury): WR21
  • Next five (with better Burrow): WR3
  • Final seven (starting with Burrow injury game): WR33

Other Options

Breece Hall, Bijan Robinson, Amon-Ra St. Brown

These two RBs are also in play for the 4-6 range. Play around with the Mock Draft Trainer to see whether you prefer to start your build with a top WR or a top RB.

 

Round 2

Top Target: Derrick Henry

Age 29 isn’t supposed to be good for RBs. But Henry spent that year leading the league in carries for the fourth time in five seasons. And his efficiency metrics stayed good vs. his career numbers.

Now he goes from a Titans offense that finished last year 25th in overall DVOA to a Ravens group that ranked fourth – despite a shaky RB corps.

Henry could decline some physically this year and still help your fantasy team by virtue of his situation upgrade. And his salary ($9 million per year) clearly shows Baltimore doesn’t expect decline.

Next Best: Travis Etienne, Isiah Pacheco

If Henry’s gone, these backfield leaders – in what should be good offenses – look good from either a floor or ceiling perspective.

Other Options

De’Von Achane, Chris Olave, Drake London

If you opened with a Round 1 RB, then you’re more likely looking at one of these WRs in Round 2.

 

Round 3

Top Target: De’Von Achane

Achane opened best ball drafting season going near the 1-2 turn. But he has since slid in ADP to the point where you’re likely to get a shot at him in this range.

The second-year back brings an enticing ceiling and should get more work than he did as a rookie. You’ll have to put up with weekly volatility, though. He’s simply not built like a workhorse and will always share work.

Keep that in mind as you build around him.

Next Best: Drake London

Current ADP says London will reach you here, but don’t count on it. He climbed quickly and dramatically through best ball season and is likely to go early across formats this summer if positive reports persist from Falcons training camp.

Don’t let London out of Round 2 unless you’re prepared to not get him.

Other Options

Josh Jacobs, Joe Mixon, James Cook, Nico Collins, Mike Evans

 

Round 4

Top Target: Cooper Kupp

Kupp’s 11 healthy outings last year produced a WR20-level scoring average. His target share checked in near Puka Nacua’s when they played together. And we’ve obviously seen the ultimate Kupp ceiling.

He’s a solid-to-strong bet in this range of your draft, whether as a WR2 or WR3.

Next Best: Jaylen Waddle, Deebo Samuel

The particular names available at this level will vary by draft. I’ll be surprised if Samuel’s ADP resides in Round 4 of 10-team drafts come August.

If you do see him here, snap him up. Samuel finished ninth among WRs in half-PPR points per game last year.

Other Options

Josh Jacobs, D.J. Moore, Kenneth Walker

If your league goes WR-heavier in the early rounds, you might see RBs more prominent displayed among the Round 4 recommendations. Either way, just make sure you don’t let position runs make you follow the pack and pass on available value.

 

Round 5

Top Target: Kenneth Walker

Walker’s a little tricky this year.

His baseline looks good, because we expect a talented offense to improve on last year’s production. If Walker maintains the clear backfield lead, he could deliver big value from this range of your draft.

If, on the other hand, new OC Ryan Grubb favors getting Zach Charbonnet more involved, then Walker could prove frustrating.

He’s easier to like as a RB3 than RB2 – though the latter could also work with a solid insurance pick behind him (see later rounds).

Next Best: D.J. Moore, Tee Higgins

Either Moore or Higgins makes for a nice play here.

Moore managed a WR12 finish in half-PPR points per game last season, despite catching passes from Justin Fields and Tyson Bagent. Adding Keenan Allen and Rome Odunze might lower that ceiling, but it also lowered his best ball ADP (WR21 on Underdog Fantasy, which uses half-PPR scoring).

Other Options

Malik Nabers, DeVonta Smith, Rhamondre Stevenson

 

Round 6

Top Target: Tee Higgins

Higgins stands a better chance than Moore of making it to this round. He sits 27th among WRs in the aforementioned ADP.

Higgins’ injury history might make you groan. But it’s easy to forget that he finished WR14 in half-PPR points per game in each of Joe Burrow’s past two healthy seasons (2021 and 2022).

Next Best: Joe Burrow, Dak Prescott

If you’ve already collected five players between RB and WR and don’t find the crop at either position exciting in this round, then you can opt for a QB.

Prescott finished third among fantasy QBs last year. Burrow checked in fourth when last we got a healthy year from him (2022).

Other Options

Tank Dell, James Conner, David Montgomery, D’Andre Swift

The RBs here would be fine, but you’re also likely to see at least one of them – and maybe more – get back to you in Round 7.

 

Round 7

Top Target: James Conner

See?

Conner’s an easy bet. The perennially underrated RB has finished three straight seasons among the top 11 in half-PPR points per game.

Next Best: Jonathan Brooks, D’Andre Swift

Don’t like Conner? Then you’re a monster. But you can also find younger options at the same position here.

Other Options

Kyle Pitts, Jordan Love

Don’t need (or want?) an RB at this turn? There’s plenty of upside to either of these guys at a one-starter position. Each has shown the potential to produce like a difference-maker in your 10-team league.

 

Round 8

Top Target: Jayden Daniels

Upside Mode turns on at this point, and that helps propel Daniels to the top of the board – if you haven’t already drafted a QB.

Upside Mode highlights a player’s ceiling projection and likelihood of hitting that ceiling to chase upside through the second half of your draft.

Next Best: Jake Ferguson

If you did already select a QB but not a TE, then Ferguson makes plenty of sense. He popped for a TE8 half-PPR finish in his first year as a starter – and then delivered his best game of the season (10-93-3 for 32.3 half-PPR points) in the playoff loss.

Other Options

Rashee Rice, DeAndre Hopkins

If you’re set at QB and TE come Round 8, then it’s plenty late enough to ignore the downside risk and chase the upside on these WRs.

 

Round 9

Top Target: Jake Ferguson

You can take a shot on Ferguson lasting another round. He’d be an even better pick here.

Next Best: Raheem Mostert, Javonte Williams

If RB is your flavor at this turn, then there’s plenty of upside to either Mostert or Williams.

The first showed us an obscenely high ceiling by scoring the second-most half-PPR points at the position last year. Mostert’s probably not getting close to that in 2024. But he’s also falling outside of RB2 range in drafts.

Williams hasn’t had a chance to show us his ceiling yet. He did operate as the clear backfield leader last year despite coming off a serious knee injury.

If he keeps that role in 2024 and plays more explosively, Williams could prove to be a steal in this range.

Other Options

Tony Pollard, Dallas Goedert, Brock Bowers

Here are your TE consolation prizes if you wait on the position. Either could serve you just fine. Bowers presents plenty of unknowns between being a rookie and his shaky offense. Goedert’s solid but lacks the ceiling appeal of others at his position.

 

Round 10

Top Target: Christian Watson

Watson’s hamstrings have been a recurring issue for him and fantasy managers. He says he figured out the issue through testing this offseason, though, and has worked on it.

Fixed? We’ll see. But there’s a lot more upside than risk from a Round 10 draft position.

Next Best: Xavier Worthy, Jaxon Smith-Njigba

Similarly, these young guys present much more upside than risk at this stage of your draft. No matter which option you favor, this looks like a good turn for an upside wideout.

Other Options

Rome Odunze, Keon Coleman, Tyjae Spears

Spears sneaks in as an upside play if you’re already well-stocked at WR by this point.

 

Round 11

Top Target: Kendre Miller

Miller didn’t generate much buzz for his performance in spring workouts, with HC Dennis Allen sounding more like he thinks the second-year back needs to be challenged.

We’ll see what the training-camp reports say. But Miller’s a clear upside case.

New Orleans drafted him in Round 3 just last year. Jamaal Williams then stunk in his first season after signing as a free agent. Alvin Kamara’s 29 and coming off a career-low 6.2 yards per catch – plus a three-year run of just 3.9 yards per rush.

Next Best: Devin Singletary

Some of those young WRs mentioned above might remain available in this round. Feel free to add them to your consideration.

At RB, you could favor the higher floor of Singletary over the uncertainty of Miller.

The new Giant won’t wow anyone, but his three-year free-agent contract guarantees a solid-to-strong workload.

Other Options

Caleb Williams, Chase Brown, Ezekiel Elliott

Backup QB? Upside RB stash? Floor play for insurance? Choose your fighter.

 

Round 12

Top Target: Caleb Williams

It’s OK to leave your 10-team draft with just one QB. If you do select a backup, that’s a nice spot to have Williams.

You stand to benefit if he delivers on his promising talent and friendly situation. And you’re not hurt if he endures a bumpy debut season.

If you select an iffier starter such as Jayden Daniels, adding a backup will make more sense than if you opened with a proven QB commodity.

Next Best: Tyler Lockett, Jameson Williams

Feel like betting on Lockett remaining Lockett? Prefer to bet on Williams breaking out in his third season?

Other Options

Mike Williams, Brian Thomas Jr., Jerry Jeudy, Curtis Samuel

Rather pass on both and favor one of these guys? Any of those options is fine.

If you’re not targeting a backup at QB or TE in this round, then it’s a good time to stash a WR.

 

Round 13

Top Target: Jameson Williams

Williams obviously gets more attractive the later you can draft him. If the training-camp reports on him stay as positive as the spring buzz, though, you’ll likely have to chase him much earlier than this. 

Be careful not to chase the hype too far up the board. The earlier he goes, the riskier he becomes.

Next Best: Mike Williams

Williams is a different risk-reward play. He has already proved he can produce. But he’s coming off an ACL tear and working with a new QB who’s coming off an Achilles’ tear.

As I said with other players, though, the upside outweighs the risk at this stage of your draft. That’s why your Draft War Room flips on Upside Mode instead of Reality Mode through the second half of your draft.

Other Options

Brian Thomas Jr., Jerry Jeudy, Curtis Samuel

No one (at least outside of Cleveland) is excited about Jeudy at this point. But he’s a fine late stash in case Amari Cooper’s contract squabble lingers into summer – or even in case the Browns’ passing finally improves

 

Rounds 14-16

Top Targets: Upside + K + DST

Close out your draft with an upside stash, a kicker, and a defense – in whichever order makes sense.

Our Trust Factor works differently with defenses than other positions, adding value to those with positive opening matchups while downgrading those with tough initial opponents.

You should plan to target matchups more than one season-long option at DST.

 

Jahmyr Gibbs fits in Round 2 of your 10-team half-PPR draft strategy.

10-Team Half-PPR Draft Strategy: Pick 7 or 8

Round 1

Top Target: Justin Jefferson

Current ADP says Jefferson is commonly getting to the eighth spot in these drafts. We’ll see if that’s the case come August, and you obviously can’t count on it happening in any individual draft. But he should be a pretty easy pick if/when he does.

Next Best: Amon-Ra St. Brown

St. Brown currently sits one spot ahead of Jefferson by ADP for this format. You’ll likely be in good shape with either as your top WR.

Other Options

Jonathan Taylor, Puka Nacua

Nothing wrong with letting Taylor or Nacua open your draft either. Nacua’s one year of production makes him a little less “safe” than the previous two WRs.

Not sure whether to start your draft with a WR or RB? Play around with the Mock Draft Trainer to see which delivers you better rosters.

 

Round 2

Top Target: Jahmyr Gibbs

Gibbs scored as a top-7 RB across formats from Week 10 on last season. That was with David Montgomery healthy and also producing top-13 numbers.

Gibbs should avoid his early-season touch deficiencies in Year 2, with a chance he gains more beyond his late-season load.

Even if he doesn’t, the second-year runner has showed he can score as an RB1.

Next Best: Kyren Williams

Williams has a chance to remain in the mix for your Round 3 pick. The Rams’ Round 3 selection of RB Blake Corum plus Williams’ spring foot trouble has pushed his best ball ADP later.

Williams delivered the second-most points per game at the position last year, though. And we’re betting he’ll remain the clear lead back in a good offense – perhaps still close to a workhorse.

Williams led the league in opportunity share last season, drawing 23% of Rams’ carries plus targets over his 12 games. (Christian McCaffrey got 22.2% among 49ers.)

Other options

Garrett Wilson, Derrick Henry

If you’re pumped for a Wilson breakout season, then feel free to push him ahead of the RBs here and leave that position for the next couple of rounds.

 

Round 3

Top Target: De’Von Achane

Achane looks like Jahmyr Gibbs but with a smaller workload.

We’re betting he’ll grow beyond last year’s 10.3 touches per game. But Achane might not reach the 15.6 that Gibbs averaged.

Still, the Dolphin has already showed that his weekly spikes go as high as any RB’s. If you’re willing to plan around his likely volatility, then he’s an enticing Round 3 pick.

Next Best: Jalen Hurts, Joe Mixon

You might think that you should wait until late for your QB because there will be plenty to feed your whole 10-team league.

The second half of that is true. But you don’t necessarily need to adhere to the first part.

The smaller league also allows you to gain more of an advantage by grabbing a top-shelf producer at a one-starter position.

Hurts leads our QB rankings this year and carries plenty of value at this point in your draft.

Other Options

Drake London, Josh Jacobs, Nico Collins, Mike Evans

 

Round 4

Top Target: Deebo Samuel

If Samuel actually gets to Round 4, then he should be a pretty easy selection. He finished ninth among WRs in half-PPR points per game last year.

Next Best: Jaylen Waddle, Cooper Kupp

If Samuel doesn’t this long and either of these options does, then either Waddle or Kupp would also make plenty of sense – especially if you’ve gotten here without a WR.

Other Options

Josh Jacobs, Kenneth Walker, Nico Collins, D.J. Moore

 

Round 5

Top Target: Cooper Kupp

Current ADP for the format says Kupp can be a Round 5 option. Don’t count on him lasting that long. But target him if he does.

How many other Round 5 picks have a No. 1 overall season at the position in their background?

Next Best: Rhamondre Stevenson

Antonio Gibson arrives to challenge Stevenson’s receiving production. But the Patriots also gave their incumbent a hefty contract extension.

That clearly indicates their continued belief.

Other Options

Malik Nabers, Aaron Jones, Anthony Richardson, Tee Higgins

The argument for Richardson in this round is the same as the Hurts argument two rounds earlier. The Colts QB just has yet to show us that his rushing pushes his fantasy ceiling as high as that of Hurts or Josh Allen.

But it might.

 

Round 6

Top Target: Joe Burrow

If you get here without a QB, then Burrow makes plenty of sense.

His last two healthy seasons found him seventh (2021) and fourth (2022) among QB scorers.

Next Best: Malik Nabers, Tee Higgins

Already have a QB or don’t want one yet? WR looks good at this turn, no matter how many you already have.

Other Options

David Montgomery, Jonathan Brooks, James Conner, D’Andre Swift, Dak Prescott

 

Round 7

Top Target: James Conner

Conner looks most likely among the RBs listed above to bet to this round.

He has finished three straight seasons among the top 11 RBs in half-PPR points per game. Yet his injury history keeps him perennially underrated.

Next Best: Jonathon Brooks

Prefer young upside over underrated old guys? That’s fine.

This second-round pick could become Carolina’s clear lead back at some point this year. He’s certainly the Panthers’ most talented option.

Current ADP says you might also be able to snag him next round.

Other Options

David Njoku, Raheem Mostert, Tony Pollard, Najee Harris, Javonte Williams

 

Round 8

Top Target: Jake Ferguson

Ferguson delivered top-10 fantasy numbers in his first starting turn. He’s a nice pick if you waited on TE to this point.

Next Best: Raheem Mostert, Javonte Williams

ADP says you might still be able to draft either of these guys next round – and perhaps even Round 10 for Williams. Just don’t count on that if you covet either player.

Each resides in an upside spot. Mostert gets downgraded by drafters for his age and crowded backfield, but he finished second among all RBs in fantasy points last year.

Other Options

Tony Pollard, Najee Harris, Zamir White, Jaylen Warren, DeAndre Hopkins, Christian Kirk

 

Round 9

Top Target: Raheem Mostert

Upside Mode kicks on for this turn. That’s a clear mark in Mostert’s favor. He might have the widest range of possible outcomes for any RB in this area code.

Next Best: Javonte Williams

More on Williams in the next section … 

Other options: 

Tony Pollard, Jayden Reed, Zack Moss, Marquise Brown

 

Round 10

Top Target: Javonte Williams

I’ve gotten here with:

  • one QB
  • one TE
  • four RBs
  • and three WRs

Does Williams as the top recommendation mean we’re overvaluing RBs? Perhaps.

But more likely it highlights him as an attractive upside target vs. what’s expected to be available at the position going forward. WR, meanwhile, flattens out in this range.

Next Best: Tony Pollard

Tyjae Spears has gathered fantasy buzz through the spring and summer, with HC Brian Callahan calling his top two backs “interchangeable” talents on more than one occasion. But that has left Pollard in a value range of drafts.

He actually settles into a group of value RBs, according to our ADP Market Index for 12-team half-PPR drafts … 

Draft Sharks ADP Market Index reveals Raheem Mostert, Tony Pollard, Jonathon Brooks, and Javonte Williams as fantasy football draft values.

Other Options

Marquise Brown, Christian Watson, Xavier Worthy, Jaxon Smith-Njigba, Diontae Johnson

Not feeling RB at this turn? Or maybe just don’t need one? 

There are likely plenty of young, upside WRs available too.

Our ADP Market Index Reveals Key Values

 

Round 11

Top Target: Xavier Worthy

If you favor one of the other WRs listed, that’s fine. But it’s tough to argue against a first-round wideout working with Patrick Mahomes at this stage in any draft.

Next Best: Jaxon Smith-Njigba

Smith-Njigba faces a tougher path to target share than Worthy, with D.K. Metcalf and Tyler Lockett still around. But it sounds like the new offensive scheme will start him out in a better place than last year’s did.

And if Lockett reaches the cliff in his age-32 season, JSN would stand to benefit.

Other Options

Jayden Daniels, Keon Coleman, Courtland Sutton, Tyler Lockett, Jameson Williams

If you didn’t draft a QB earlier, then Daniels has likely popped to the top of your board by now – perhaps as early as Round 8. He’s a high-upside play for 2024.

 

Round 12

Top Target: Dallas Goedert

For this exercise, I drafted Jake Ferguson back when he sat tops among the recommendations. You don’t need to draft a second TE at all in your 10-team league. 

But it’s also fine to do so and then roll with whichever guy starts delivering or platoon the two.

Next Best: Courtland Sutton, Tyler Lockett, Jameson Williams

The reason you don’t need to secure that second TE is because more will always be available on – and/or emerge from – waivers. But that’ll also be true at WR.

Some wideouts will stand out much more than others from this range. We use Upside Mode to help highlight the best bets. We won’t nail them all, though.

Don’t be afraid to collect as many as you can reasonably fit to maximize your chances of hitting that guy.

Other Options

Mike Williams, Brian Thomas Jr., Jerry Jeudy, Curtis Samuel, Gabe Davis

 

Round 13

Top Target: Kendre Miller

Miller will get less attractive if we get negative reports on his performance and progress through summer. But his situation is undeniably positive.

Jamaal Williams played poorly in his first season with the team. Alvin Kamara turned in a career-low 6.2 yards per catch and third straight season of 4.0 yards per carry or less. He has always been at his best when sharing the backfield.

If Miller can prove ready, he should open the year complementing Kamara. That would present some early value with contingent upside in case Kamara goes down or declines further.

Next Best: Justin Herbert, Chase Brown

The Chargers’ change to run-heavy coaches and WR purge makes Herbert far less attractive than he used to be. But being Justin Herbert makes him worth a shot at some point.

Brown should push to split the Cincinnati backfield with Zack Moss in some way. Exactly how that split plays out will determine whether he’s a fine pick or a terrific one from this range.

Other Options

Jared Goff, Dalton Schultz, Pat Freiermuth

You could wait until late in your draft for a TE and then pair a couple of them and see if one breaks out. Freiermuth ranks among our top fantasy football sleepers.

 

Rounds 14-16

Top Targets: Upside + K + DST

Close out your draft with an upside stash, a kicker, and a defense – in whichever order makes sense.

Our Trust Factor works differently with defenses than other positions, adding value to those with positive opening matchups while downgrading those with tough initial opponents.

You should plan to target matchups more than one season-long option at DST.

 

Jonathan Taylor looks good at the 1-2 turn as part of your 10-team half-PPR draft strategy.

10-Team Half-PPR Draft Strategy: Pick 9 or 10

Rounds 1 & 2

Top Target: Jonathan Taylor, Puka Nacua

Given the options in this range, your best bet looks like leaving Round 2 with a RB and a WR.

Next Best: Saquon Barkley, Garrett Wilson

Feel free to mix and match your favorites among these players.

I’d also recommend playing with the Mock Draft Trainer to see how starting with two WRs or two RBs works out for you. Better to get that experience before you’re on the clock and deciding between specific names.

Other options: 

Jahmyr Gibbs, A.J. Brown

 

Rounds 3 & 4

Top Targets: De’Von Achane, Drake London

You’re in great shape if you find this pair at the 3-4 turn and leave Round 4 with a pair of upside players at both RB and WR.

In the current market, Achane has a better chance of staying on the board. I’ll be shocked if London gets to this range. His buzz skyrocketed as soon as Atlanta signed Kirk Cousins.

Next Best: James Cook, Josh Jacobs, Mike Evans, Deebo Samuel

Even if London’s gone, though, there’s plenty of upside in Samuel – who sits one spot behind London in our half-PPR WR rankings – Evans and the three WRs listed below.

Other Options

Nico Collins, Cooper Kupp, Jaylen Waddle

 

Rounds 5 & 6

Top Targets: Rhamondre Stevenson, Malik Nabers

I’ve gotten here with two RBs and two WRs rostered. If you started with one RB and three WRs, then you’re probably getting different rankings at this turn.

Next Best: Aaron Jones, DeVonta Smith

Similarly attractive duo. Jones hits Minnesota at an age that threatens physical decline. But he’ll also be the lead back for what should be a solid-to-good offense.

Smith gets a new OC in Kellen Moore, who should be good for the Eagles’ passing efficiency.

Other Options

Joe Burrow, James Conner, David Montgomery, Jonathan Brooks

Early Round 6 seems a bit early for these RBs. The specific names might differ on your board depending on what you’ve drafted so far and how ADP stands when you draft.

 

Rounds 7 & 8

Top Targets: James Conner, Jake Ferguson

If you passed on Conner last round and get another shot at him here, you’re drafting well.

He has ranked among the top 11 RBs in half-PPR points per game each of the past three seasons. You can find insurance to fill the weeks he misses with the next injury.

Ferguson looks like a high-floor TE option. He ranked second among Cowboys in his first full season as starter. And Dallas ranked eighth in pass attempts and first in scoring.

Next Best: David Njoku, Jordan Love, Jayden Daniels

If you’re in good shape at RB at WR through six rounds, then consider addressing both QB and TE at this turn.

Love dominated over the second half of last season. Daniels carries top-6 upside right away thanks to his rushing ability.

And even if either falters in 2024, you’ll be able to find a replacement in your 10-team league.

Other Options

Amari Cooper, DeAndre Hopkins, Chris Godwin

 

Rounds 9 & 10

Top Targets: Jayden Daniels, Raheem Mostert

Daniels pops as the strong top recommendation here, despite an ADP that says he might even come back at your next turn.

That’s because Upside Mode has turned on, factoring ceiling projections and breakout likelihood more heavily to help you target those potential difference makers in the later rounds.

Mostert also stands out for upside after finishing second among RBs in fantasy points in 2023.

Next Best: Javonte Williams, Jayden Reed

There’s plenty of upside to this duo as well.

Williams should be more efficient with another offseason of separation from his 2022 knee injury. We’ll watch to see if he retains the clear lead in the Denver backfield.

Reed led Green Bay in targets per game, claimed a significant rushing role, and racked up 10 total TDs as a second-round rookie.

If you can get him around the 9-10 turn, that mitigates the downside risk of his playing time staying inconsistent.

Other Options

Tony Pollard, Marquise Brown, Christian Watson

 

Rounds 11 & 12

Top Targets: Xavier Worthy, Brock Bowers

The spotlight’s on young upside here. We’ve historically seen rookie WRs deliver value later in the regular season, and Worthy joins a team that got just that from Rashee Rice a year ago.

Of course, if he doesn’t find room to make a similar impact in 2024, then you can dump this Round 11 selection for help from the waiver wire.

Bowers could have landed in a better spot, but his talent’s worth betting on late in your draft – even if you already have a TE.

That League Sync Will Help Beyond Draft Day

Next Best: Keon Coleman, Devin Singletary

Coleman got drafted a little later than Worthy but faces a less-crowded path to worthwhile target shares.

Singletary should be an easy pick if he stays on the board this late. He’s clearly set up to lead the Giants in touches this season. And you don’t have to be “good” to offer some value if you’re getting the ball enough.

Other Options

Courtland Sutton, Tyler Lockett, Dallas Goedert, Jameson Williams, Caleb Williams, Mike Williams, anyone else named Williams (no, not really)

 

Rounds 13 & 14

Top Targets: Justin Herbert, Kendre Miller

If you drafted Jayden Daniels as your lead QB, you’re more likely to see backup-QB recommendations in this range of your draft. That’s because he carries a lower Trust Factor than most of the QBs ahead of him.

We use Trust Factor to decipher between QBs who have proved we can count on them (think Allen, Hurts, Mahomes) and those who haven’t.

Speaking of unproven players: Miller had basically no shot to deliver as a rookie, thanks to injuries. He’s well set up to make a second-year impact, though, if healthy and ready.

We’ll watch reports on him from training camp to confirm he’s on track to take advantage.

Next Best: Jared Goff, Brian Thomas Jr.

Goff’s offense has ranked among the top 5 in scoring and yards each of the past two years.

He has famously become a startable fantasy asset in home games. This year finds six of eight road games taking place in domes or warm-weather cities. That should help.

Thomas might spend his rookie season drawing inconsistent target shares. But there’s also room for him to climb a just-OK WR depth chart that shed Calvin Ridley.

Other Options

Trevor Lawrence, Jerry Jeudy, Curtis Samuel, Gabe Davis, Rashid Shaheed, Jakobi Meyers

 

Rounds 15 & 16

Top Targets: K + DST

We still do full-season projections for these positions, but that’s not how you should draft them.

In most formats, you’ll want to cycle through defenses and kickers during the season to take advantage of good matchups and avoid bad ones. Very few options at either position score consistently.

We’ve found a way to weight your draft rankings to favor those defenses with better early matchups. So you can trust that we’re factoring that into your draft rankings.

Kicker is a little different in that you can do well by riding a kicker in a top offense. But that’s also a position not enough fantasy players look to stream. Just don’t go too hard after any kicker, and use our weekly kicker rankings in season to help guide your lineup setting.

 

The Ultimate Strategy for Your Draft

No article can perfectly match your draft.

You'll see surprise picks. You'll find falling value. You'll face tough decisions.

But you can make all of that easier to navigate by setting up your Draft War Room ahead of time.

Learn all about it in this video ...

Matt Schauf Author Image
Matt Schauf, Editor
Matt has earned two Fantasy Pros accuracy awards for IDP rankings and won thousands of dollars as a player across best ball, dynasty, and high-stakes fantasy formats. He has been creating fantasy football content for more than 20 years, with work featured by Sporting News, Rotoworld, Athlon, Sirius XM, and others. He's been with Draft Sharks since 2011.
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