Fantasy Takeaways from Week 15 Usage

By Jared Smola 9:13am EST 12/21/22

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Arizona Cardinals

RB snap rates:

James Conner - 91%
Keaontay Ingram - 13%

Route rates:

James Conner - 78%
Keaontay Ingram - 13%

DeAndre Hopkins - 96%
Marquise Brown - 91%
A.J. Green - 56%
Robbie Anderson - 44%
Greg Dortch - 9%

Trey McBride - 80%
Maxx Williams - 11%
Stephen Anderson - 4%

Takeaways:

• More workhorse usage for Conner, who handled 16 of 17 RB carries (94%) and drew 5 targets (14% share).

Atlanta Falcons

RB snap rates:

Cordarrelle Patterson - 50%
Tyler Allgeier - 49%
Avery Williams - 14%
Caleb Huntley - 3% (injured)

Route rates:

Cordarrelle Patterson - 48%
Tyler Allgeier - 33%
Avery Williams - 10%
Caleb Huntley - 0% (injured)

Drake London - 83%
Olamide Zaccheaus - 83%
Damiere Byrd - 50%
KhaDarel Hodge - 18%

Anthony Firkser - 40%
MyCole Pruitt - 38%
Parker Hesse - 18%

Takeaways:

• With Huntley exiting early with a season-ending Achilles injury, Allgeier set a season high with 17 carries. Patterson’s 14 carries were his most since Week 3.
• London accounted for 42% of Atlanta’s targets, 54% of the catches and … wait for it … 72% of the receiving yards.

Baltimore Ravens

RB snap rates:

J.K. Dobbins - 38%
Justice Hill - 38%
Gus Edwards - 17%

Route rates:

Justice Hill - 43%
J.K. Dobbins - 16%
Gus Edwards - 3%

Demarcus Robinson - 76%
Devin Duvernay - 68%
DeSean Jackson - 43%
James Proche - 8%

Mark Andrews - 92%
Isaiah Likely - 62%
Josh Oliver - 27%

Takeaways:

• Dobbins distanced himself from Edwards in this one, winning the carry battle 13 to 7. Hill handled the majority of the passing-down work.

Buffalo Bills

RB snap rates:

Devin Singletary - 60%
James Cook - 36%
Nyheim Hines - 4%

Routes rates:

Devin Singletary - 45%
James Cook - 37%
Nyheim Hines - 6%

Gabriel Davis - 100%
Stefon Diggs - 92%
Isaiah McKenzie - 65%
Khalil Shakir - 16%
Cole Beasley - 16%

Dawson Knox - 78%
Quintin Morris - 14%

Takeaways:

• Singletary rebounded to a 60% snap rate after sinking to 44% and 49% the previous 2 weeks. He handled 13 of 18 RB carries (72%) and saw 4 targets (10%). Will that level of usage continue in Week 16? I honestly have no idea.
• Knox has posted 88%, 89% and 78% route rates the past 3 weeks and garnered 15 targets over the last 2. Don’t bank on that level of volume every week, but he’s certainly a viable low-end TE1 as long as this playing time holds.

Carolina Panthers

RB snap rates:

Chuba Hubbard - 63%
D’Onta Foreman - 30%
Raheem Blackshear - 4%

Routes rates:

Chuba Hubbard - 55%
D’Onta Foreman - 10%
Raheem Blackshear - 6%

D.J. Moore - 100%
Terrace Marshall - 90%
Shi Smith - 58%
Laviska Shenault - 19%

Tommy Tremble - 48%
Stephen Sullivan - 32%
Ian Thomas - 26%

Takeaways:

• Carolina ran just 46 offensive plays in this one.
• In trailing game script, we saw Hubbard lead this backfield in playing time. He finished with 4 carries and 3 targets to Foreman’s 10 carries and 0 targets. Try to avoid this backfield going forward.
• Moore’s target shares from Sam Darnold:
  • Week 12 - 32%
  • Week 14 - 13%
  • Week 15 - 26%

Chicago Bears

RB snap rates:

David Montgomery - 68%
Darrynton Evans - 27%
Trestan Ebner - 8%

Route rates:

David Montgomery - 50%
Darrynton Evans - 32%
Trestan Ebner - 6%

Byron Pringle - 94%
Dante Pettis - 82%
Velus Jones - 71%
Nsimba Webster - 21%
Equanimeous St. Brown - 6% (injured)

Cole Kmet - 88%
Ryan Griffin - 9%

Takeaways:

• Montgomery’s volume figures to take at least a slight hit with Khalil Herbert’s return in Week 16. Montgomery averaged 14.3 carries and 4.0 targets with Herbert out the past 4 games – up from 14.0 carries and 2.1 targets in 8 healthy games with Herbert.

Cincinnati Bengals

RB snap rates:

Joe Mixon - 64%
Samaje Perine - 38%

Route rates:

Joe Mixon - 44%
Samaje Perine - 29%

Ja’Marr Chase - 100%
Tee Higgins - 96%
Tyler Boyd - 80%
Trenton Irwin - 24%
Stanley Morgan - 4%

Mitchell Wilcox - 76%
Devin Asiasi - 7%

Takeaways:

• Mixon’s playing time improved a tad from Week 14: from a 58% snap rate and 43% route rate to a 64% snap rate and 44% route rate. He still out-carried Perine just 11 to 7 but out-targeted him 6 to 1.
• Higgins was a full-go in this one after the Week 14 fiasco, drawing 8 targets for a 21% share.

Cleveland Browns

RB snap rates:

Nick Chubb - 70%
Kareem Hunt - 26%
D’Ernest Johnson - 5%

Route rates:

Nick Chubb - 62%
Kareem Hunt - 21%
D’Ernest Johnson - 0%

Amari Cooper - 88%
Donovan Peoples-Jones - 85%
Michael Woods - 62%
Daylen Baldwin - 15%
Demetric Felton - 6%

David Njoku - 74%
Harrison Bryant - 26%
Pharaoh Brown - 12%

Takeaways:

• A season-high snap rate for Chubb in this Browns win. He’s now averaged 22.0 carries in wins this season vs. 15.0 in losses.

Dallas Cowboys

RB snap rates:

Tony Pollard - 55%
Ezekiel Elliott - 51%

Route rates:

Ezekiel Elliott - 40%
Tony Pollard - 37%

CeeDee Lamb - 100%
Michael Gallup - 89%
Noah Brown - 77%
James Washington - 9%

Dalton Schultz - 89%
Peyton Hendershot - 17%
Sean McKeon - 6%

Takeaways:

• Brown has racked up 15 targets on a 22% share over the past 2 weeks. But he remains Dallas’ #3 WR in terms of playing time and isn’t a guy I’d trust in Week 16 fantasy lineups.

Denver Broncos

RB snap rates:

Latavius Murray - 64%
Marlon Mack - 29%
Devine Ozigbo - 7%

Route rates:

Latavius Murray - 39%
Marlon Mack - 30%
Devine Ozigbo - 3%

Jerry Jeudy - 91%
Brandon Johnson - 67%
Freddie Swain - 52%
Montrell Washington - 3%
Jalen Virgil - 3%

Greg Dulcich - 85%
Eric Saubert - 61%
Eric Tomlinson - 18%

Takeaways:

• Mack picked up more passing-down snaps in this one and out-targeted Murray 4 to 1. Murray, though, racked up 24 carries to Mack’s 5.
• Dulcich saw just 2 targets (8%) but still registered a high-end route rate. I wouldn’t alter expectations for him going forward based on this game. He remains a fringe TE1.

Detroit Lions

RB snap rates:

D’Andre Swift - 40%
Justin Jackson - 32%
Jamaal Williams - 31%

Route rates:

D’Andre Swift - 42%
Justin Jackson - 32%
Jamaal Williams - 13%

Amon-Ra St. Brown - 89%
D.J. Chark - 84%
Josh Reynolds - 61%
Kalif Raymond - 34%
Jameson Williams - 16%

Shane Zylstra - 42%
Brock Wright - 21%
James Mitchell - 21%

Takeaways:

• Swift’s 17 opportunities (8 carries, 9 targets) were his 3rd most of the season, trailing only his 18 in Week 1 and 20 in Week 13.

Green Bay Packers

RB snap rates:

Aaron Jones - 56%
A.J. Dillon - 37% (injured)
Patrick Taylor - 13%

Route rates:

Aaron Jones - 61%
A.J. Dillon - 36% (injured)
Patrick Taylor - 6%

Allen Lazard - 97%
Christian Watson - 94%
Randall Cobb - 56%
Romeo Doubs - 31%

Robert Tonyan - 47%
Josiah Deguara - 28%
Marcedes Lewis - 19%

Takeaways:

• Prior to exiting for a concussion check, Dillon had tallied 11 carries and 3 targets to Jones’ 11 carries and 5 targets.
• Doubs saw 5 targets (17% share) in his return, but the 31% route rate means we can’t trust him in Week 16 fantasy lineups.

Houston Texans

RB snap rates:

Dare Ogunbowale - 43%
Royce Freeman - 38%
Rex Burkhead - 19%

Route rates:

Dare Ogunbowale - 38%
Rex Burkhead - 32%
Royce Freeman - 11%

Phillip Dorsett - 95%
Chris Moore - 92%
Amari Rodgers - 49%

Jordan Akins - 59%
Teagan Quitoriano - 59%
Brevin Jordan - 11%
Mason Schreck - 8%

Takeaways:

• Freeman led Houston with 11 carries; Burkhead paced the RBs with 4 targets. Hopefully you’re not messing with this backfield going forward.
• Moore followed his 11 targets (41% share) in Week 14 with 9 targets (31% share) in this one.

Indianapolis Colts

RB snap rates:

Zack Moss - 67%
Deon Jackson - 32%
Jonathan Taylor - 3% (injured)

Route rates:

Zack Moss - 38%
Deon Jackson - 24%
Jonathan Taylor - 3% (injured)

Michael Pittman - 97%
Alec Pierce - 92%
Parris Campbell - 89%
Ashton Dulin - 14%

Mo Alie-Cox - 41%
Kylen Granson - 32%
Jelani Woods - 30%

Takeaways:

• Moss pretty easily led the Colts’ Taylor-less backfield in snaps, routes and carries (24 to Jackson’s 13). I’d expect Jackson to play at least a bit more in trailing game script, though. Indianapolis also elevated RB Jordan Wilkins from the practice squad on Tuesday. Consider Moss and Jackson just low-end RB3s in Week 16.

Jacksonville Jaguars

RB snap rates:

Travis Etienne - 73%
JaMycal Hasty - 23%
Snoop Conner - 4%

Route rates:

Travis Etienne - 56%
JaMycal Hasty - 24%
Snoop Conner - 4%

Christian Kirk - 100%
Zay Jones - 98%
Marvin Jones - 76%
Jamal Agnew - 9%
Tim Jones - 9%

Evan Engram - 89%
Chris Manhertz - 4%
Dan Arnold - 2%

Takeaways:

• Jaguars targets over the last 5 games:
  • Zay Jones - 51 (26% share)
  • Christian Kirk - 46 (24%)
  • Engram - 37 (19%)
  • Marvin Jones - 17 (9%)

Kansas City Chiefs

RB snap rates:

Jerick McKinnon - 62%
Isiah Pacheco - 35%
Ronald Jones - 3%

Route rates:

Jerick McKinnon - 68%
Isiah Pacheco - 21%
Ronald Jones - 0%

JuJu Smith-Schuster - 87%
Marquez Valdes-Scantling - 68%
Justin Watson - 53%
Skyy Moore - 19%
Kadarius Toney - 6%

Travis Kelce - 81%
Noah Gray - 49%
Jody Fortson - 19%

Takeaways:

• Chiefs RB usage over the last 3 weeks:
  • McKinnon - 113 snaps, 70 routes, 24 carries, 19 targets
  • Pacheco - 81 snaps, 32 routes, 42 carries, 6 targets
• Smith-Schuster in his last 7 full, healthy games has averaged 8.3 targets on a 19.5% share.

Las Vegas Raiders

RB snap rates:

Josh Jacobs - 75%
Ameer Abdullah - 22%
Zamir White - 4%

Route rates:

Josh Jacobs - 57%
Ameer Abdullah - 23%
Zamir White - 2%

Davante Adams - 100%
Mack Hollins - 89%
Hunter Renfrow - 59%
Keelan Cole - 27%

Darren Waller - 66%
Foster Moreau - 43%

Takeaways:

• Renfrow’s disappointing season continued with a 1-catch, 14-yard outing on 3 targets (8% share)
• Waller delivered a 3-48-1 line in his return but posted an underwhelming 66% route rate and 8% target share. I’d expect those marks to climb going forward, but he should still be considered a low-end TE1 for Week 16.

Los Angeles Chargers

RB snap rates:

Austin Ekeler - 69%
Joshua Kelley - 35%

Route rates:

Austin Ekeler - 62%
Joshua Kelley - 13%

Keenan Allen - 98%
Mike Williams - 96%
Josh Palmer - 66%
DeAndre Carter - 17%

Gerald Everett - 60%
Donald Parham - 23%
Tre McKitty - 13%

Takeaways:

• Everett seemingly lost a few routes to Parham, who played for the first time since Week 6. But he still garnered a decent 6 targets (14% share). Everett has now caught 4+ balls in 7 straight healthy games.

Los Angeles Rams

RB snap rates:

Cam Akers - 76%
Malcolm Brown - 16%
Kyren Williams - 9%

Route rates:

Cam Akers - 61%
Malcolm Brown - 21%
Kyren Williams - 7%

Van Jefferson - 96%
Tutu Atwell - 89%
Ben Skowronek - 54% (injured)
Austin Trammell - 36%
Brandon Powell - 11%
Lance McCutcheon - 4%

Tyler Higbee - 54%
Brycen Hopkins - 18%

Takeaways:

• Akers’ 76% snap rate was his season high and the 2nd highest by a Rams RB this year. He handled 12 of 14 RB carries (86%) and tallied 3 targets (14% share).

Miami Dolphins

RB snap rates:

Raheem Mostert - 76%
Salvon Ahmed - 24%

Route rates:

Raheem Mostert - 66%
Salvon Ahmed - 11%

Tyreek Hill - 89%
Jaylen Waddle - 71%
Trent Sherfield - 60%
Braylon Sanders - 26%
Cedrick Wilson - 23%

Mike Gesicki - 34%
Durham Smythe - 26%

Takeaways:

• As we expected, Mostert dominated Dolphins backfield work sans Jeff Wilson. It does sound like Wilson should be back for Week 16, though.

Minnesota Vikings

RB snap rates:

Dalvin Cook - 85%
Alexander Mattison - 14%

Route rates:

Dalvin Cook - 75%
Alexander Mattison - 15%

Justin Jefferson - 93%
Adam Thielen - 93%
K.J. Osborn - 85%
Jalen Reagor - 7%
Jalen Nailor - 3%

T.J. Hockenson - 84%
Johnny Mundt - 6%

Takeaways:

• Osborn’s 31.7 PPR points in this one account for 27% of his season total. He reached double-digit points in just 2 of his first 13 games. Nothing changed with his playing time. He just happened to earn a 30% target share on a day when the Vikings ran 86 plays and threw it 54 times. Be careful trusting him in Week 16 fantasy lineups.

New England Patriots

RB snap rates:

Rhamondre Stevenson - 66%
Pierre Strong - 26%
Kevin Harris - 11%

Route rates:

Rhamondre Stevenson - 49%
Pierre Strong - 31%
Kevin Harris - 6%

Tyquan Thornton - 94%
Nelson Agholor - 83%
Jakobi Meyers - 71%
Kendrick Bourne - 23%

Hunter Henry - 77%
Jonnu Smith - 40%

Takeaways:

• Stevenson’s playing time was scaled back a bit coming off the ankle injury, particularly on passing downs. He still came away with 168 total yards and a score.
• Meyers’ playing time was down a bit returning from his concussion.

New Orleans Saints

RB snap rates:

Alvin Kamara - 62%
David Johnson - 33%

Route rates:

David Johnson - 48%
Alvin Kamara - 43%

Rashid Shaheed - 95%
Chris Olave - 86%
Jarvis Landry - 67%

Juwan Johnson - 62%
Taysom Hill - 52%
Adam Trautman - 29%

Takeaways:

• David Johnson running more routes than Kamara: coaching malpractice.
• Juwan Johnson’s 4-67-2 line came on a team-high 6 targets (32% share). The route rate was a bit lower than we’d like to see, though. And Johnson had registered a subpar 13% target share in his previous 7 games.

New York Giants

RB snap rates:

Saquon Barkley - 86%
Matt Breida - 17%

Route rates:

Saquon Barkley - 63%
Matt Breida - 14%

Darius Slayton - 100%
Isaiah Hodgins - 94%
Richie James - 86%
Kenny Golladay - 3%
Marcus Johnson - 3%

Daniel Bellinger - 97%
Nick Vannett - 3%

Takeaways:

• Off the injury report, Barkley was back to full-go, racking up 18 carries and 8 targets.
• Bellinger finished with 1 catch on 4 targets for 4 yards. But that 97% route rate keeps him on the radar.

New York Jets

RB snap rates:

Michael Carter - 52%
Zonovan Knight - 48%

Route rates:

Michael Carter - 56%
Zonovan Knight - 20%

Garrett Wilson - 100%
Elijah Moore - 88%
Jeff Smith - 46%
Braxton Berrios - 44%
Denzel Mims - 10%

Tyler Conklin - 51%
C.J. Uzomah - 24%

Takeaways:

• Knight missed some time in this one with an ankle injury but isn’t on the Week 16 injury report.
• Wilson drew 9 targets (26% share) in QB Zach Wilson’s return.
• Don’t chase Uzomah’s 2-TD game.

Philadelphia Eagles

RB snap rates:

Miles Sanders - 55%
Kenneth Gainwell - 40%
Boston Scott - 5%

Route rates:

Kenneth Gainwell - 43%
Miles Sanders - 41%
Boston Scott - 9%

DeVonta Smith - 100%
A.J. Brown - 98%
Quez Watkins - 66%
Zach Pascal - 20%

Jack Stoll - 68%
Grant Calcaterra - 43%
Tyree Jackson - 2%

Takeaways:

• The Eagles opened this one with a pass-heavy game plan, which left Sanders with a minimal role. His 11 carries were his 3rd fewest in a game this season.

Pittsburgh Steelers

RB snap rates:

Najee Harris - 66%
Jaylen Warren - 34%

Route rates:

Najee Harris - 39%
Jaylen Warren - 26%

Diontae Johnson - 96%
George Pickens - 96%
Steven Sims - 65%
Gunner Olszewski - 22%
Miles Boykin - 9%

Pat Freiermuth - 70%
Zach Gentry - 26%

Takeaways:

• Johnson drew a whopping 45% target share from QB Mitchell Trubisky in this one after registering a 32% target share in Trubisky’s 3 starts to open the season. Unfortunately for Johnson, QB Kenny Pickett is on track to return this week.
• Freiermuth didn’t see a single target, but his route rate was actually up from where it’d been the previous 2 weeks.

San Francisco 49ers

RB snap rates:

Christian McCaffrey - 89%
Jordan Mason - 11%

Route rates:

Christian McCaffrey - 90%
Jordan Mason - 3%

Brandon Aiyuk - 100%
Jauan Jennings - 87%
Ray-Ray McCloud - 65%
Danny Gray - 6%
Willie Snead - 3%

George Kittle - 84%
Tyler Kroft - 10%

Takeaways:

• The 49ers ran 61 plays in this one. 34 of them (56%) were McCaffrey runs or targets.

Seattle Seahawks

RB snap rates:

Ken Walker - 75%
Travis Homer - 25%

Route rates:

Ken Walker - 65%
Travis Homer - 24%

D.K. Metcalf - 96%
Tyler Lockett - 92% (injured)
Marquise Goodwin - 65%
Penny Hart - 4%
Dareke Young - 2%

Noah Fant - 47%
Will Dissly - 45%
Colby Parkinson - 35%

Takeaways:

• Walker returned to a full workload, handling 12 of 13 RB carries (92%) and 5 targets (11%) – although he’s now back on the injury report with ankle trouble.
• Lockett’s absence for at least Week 16 will elevate Goodwin to the #2 spot and open up opportunity for Metcalf and the TEs.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers

RB snap rates:

Leonard Fournette - 57%
Rachaad White - 39%

Route rates:

Leonard Fournette - 54%
Rachaad White - 29%

Mike Evans - 92%
Chris Godwin - 90%
Russell Gage - 69%
Breshad Perriman - 13%
Scotty Miller - 10%
Deven Thompkins - 10%

Cade Otton - 48%
Cameron Brate - 46%
Ko Kieft - 15%

Takeaways:

• Fournette pulled clear ahead of White in terms of playing time in this one, but HC Todd Bowles said afterward that it wasn’t by design. Both guys remain fringe RB2s going forward.
• Gage’s route rate was lower than we’d like, but he drew 12 targets for a big 27% share. He’s in play as a WR4 for Week 16 if Julio Jones remains out.

Tennessee Titans

RB snap rates:

Derrick Henry - 71%
Hasaan Haskins - 19%
Julius Chestnut - 2%

Route rates:

Derrick Henry - 44%
Hasaan Haskins - 24%
Julius Chestnut - 0%

Robert Woods - 94%
Nick Westbrook-Ikhine - 88%
Chris Conley - 59%
Racey McMath - 29%

Chig Okonkwo - 59%
Austin Hooper - 53%
Geoff Swaim - 15%

Takeaways:

• After a stretch of depressed snap rates, Henry has now topped 70% in 2 straight, totaling 38 carries and 9 targets in those 2 games.
• This was a season-high route rate for Okonkwo – and his 4th straight game with 5+ targets.

Washington Commanders

RB snap rates:

Antonio Gibson - 60%
Brian Robinson - 38%

Route rates:

Antonio Gibson - 64%
Brian Robinson - 17%

Terry McLaurin - 92%
Jahan Dotson - 89%
Curtis Samuel - 67%
Cam Sims - 8%
Dyami Brown - 6%

Logan Thomas - 72%
John Bates - 28%
Cole Turner - 6%

Takeaways:

• Gibson out-snapped Robinson for the 1st time in 3 weeks – likely at least in part to Washington trailing for almost 3 quarters of the game. Robinson still led the way with 12 carries to Gibson’s 5. Gibson out-targeted Robinson 4 to 1.
• Dotson matched McLaurin with a team-high 6 targets (21% share). That gives the rookie 15 targets (21% share) to McLaurin’s 18 (26%) over the last 2 games.