Week 1 Matchups That Matter: Can Houston Slow Down Josh Allen Again?

Welcome to Week 1’s Matchups That Matter

“Start your studs.”

It’s cliché ... but generally good advice for Week 1 start/sit decisions.

If we wanna get more precise, I'd say: “Start your studs and players with relatively safe volume projections.” But that doesn’t have the same ring to it.

Point is: Week 1 is not the time to get cute with matchup-based lineup decisions. Because, well ... we don’t have any 2026 matchup data.

So the Week 1 version of Matchups That Matter is the least valuable of the season. (How’s that for a sales job?!)

That doesn't mean you should ignore the data below. Implied totals are calibrated for 2026, and even the 2025 matchup data has some predictive value.

This article gives you a peek at the process behind our weekly projections and rankings. Below are the key metrics we use to set those numbers, so you can make sharper start/sit calls every week.

When you’re ready to set your lineup, hit the Week 1 Rankings and your Team Dashboard page for customized start/sit advice.

Good luck in Week 1!

Jump to:

• One Matchup to Know
• Game Totals
• Projected Points
• Projected Plays
• Weather Concerns
• Quarterback Matchups
• Running Back Matchups
• Wide Receiver Matchups
• Tight End Matchups
• Defense/Special Teams Matchups
• Kicker Matchups

One Matchup to Know

Here’s a key schematic edge from each of this week's 16 games that could impact fantasy production.

Patriots at Seahawks: Seattle Susceptible to Short Passes

The Seahawks ranked 16th in EPA allowed on passes 0-9 yards from the line of scrimmage last year. They ranked top seven vs. both intermediate and deep passes.

Upgrade: Hunter Henry

Rams vs. 49ers: Motion Edge For Rams

The Rams ranked 10th in motion rate and third in EPA per play using motion last year, while the 49ers ranked 27th in EPA per play allowed with motion.

Upgrade: Rams offense

Falcons at Steelers: Good Spot For Steelers' Run Game

The Steelers ranked sixth in EPA per rush last season, while the Falcons ranked 27th in EPA per rush allowed.

Upgrade: Rico Dowdle and Jaylen Warren

Ravens at Colts: Schematic Edge For Jonathan Taylor

The Colts ranked sixth in percentage of runs using a gap scheme last year and first in EPA per rush on those plays. The Ravens ranked 29th in EPA per rush allowed on gap runs. (New HC Jesse Minter's Chargers defense ranked 15th against gap runs last year.)

Upgrade: Jonathan Taylor

Bills at Texans: Houston's Pass Defense Built To Stop The Bills

The Bills ranked second in percentage of pass plays using motion and second in EPA per pass on those plays. The Texans led the league in EPA per pass allowed on plays with motion.

Downgrade: Bills passing game

Bears at Panthers: Chicago's Best Path is Underneath

The Bears ranked third in EPA per play on passes within 9 yards of the line of scrimmage last year. The Panthers ranked 29th in EPA per play allowed on those passes.

Upgrade: Luther Burden and Colston Loveland
Downgrade: Rome Odunze

Browns at Jaguars: No Hope For Browns Passing Game

Cleveland ranked dead last in EPA per pass last year, while the Jaguars ranked third in EPA per pass allowed.

Downgrade: Browns passing game

Saints at Lions: Pressure Matchup Favors Jared Goff

The Saints ranked ninth in blitz rate last year but just 21st in pressure rate. The Lions led the league in EPA per pass when blitzed and jumped from 24th when pressured to third when not pressured.

Upgrade: Lions passing game

Jets at Titans: Good Spot For Wan'Dale Robinson

The Jets ranked 31st in EPA per play allowed on passes within 9 yards of the line of scrimmage last year.

Upgrade: Wan'Dale Robinson

Buccaneers at Bengals: Tough Start For Emeka Egbuka

The Bengals, led by CB D.J. Turner, allowed the second-fewest yards per game to opposing No. 1 WRs last year. They ranked eighth vs. No. 2 WRs, 15th vs. No. 3s, and 32nd vs. TEs.

Downgrade: Emeka Egbuka
Upgrade: Chris Godwin and Cade Otton

Cardinals at Chargers: Motion Could Kill Cardinals

The Cardinals ranked 24th in EPA per play allowed on plays with motion. OC Mike McDaniel's Dolphins led the league in motion rate last year.

Upgrade: Chargers offense

Packers at Vikings: Strong Matchup For Vikings New Run Game

The Vikings are expected to use more zone run schemes this season. Last year's Packers ranked 31st in EPA per play allowed on zone runs.

Upgrade: Jordan Mason and Aaron Jones

Dolphins at Raiders: Expect TE-Heavy Game Plan From Raiders

Miami ranked 28th in EPA per play allowed against 12 personnel (2 TEs, 2 WRs) last year. The Raiders ranked sixth in usage of that package and project to finish near the top of the league again this season under HC Klint Kubiak.

Upgrade: Michael Mayer

Commanders at Eagles: RPO Mismatch

The Eagles ranked fifth in EPA per play allowed on RPO plays last year. The Commanders ranked 24th.

Upgrade: Jalen Hurts
Downgrade: Jayden Daniels

Cowboys at Giants: Smash Spot For Javonte Williams

Dallas ranked eighth in EPA per rush last year, while the Giants finished dead last in EPA per rush allowed. The Cowboys have an especially big edge on gap runs, where they finished fourth in EPA last year and the Giants' defense 32nd.

Upgrade: Javonte Williams

Broncos at Chiefs: Denver's Man Coverage Gives Chiefs Trouble

Denver used man coverage at the fourth-highest rate last year, while the Chiefs ranked just 25th in EPA per play vs. man (fifth vs. zone).

Downgrade: Chiefs passing game

Highest Game Totals

1. Buccaneers at Bengals (50.5)
2. Saints at Lions (49.5)
3. Cowboys at Giants (48.5)
4. 49ers vs. Rams (48.0)
t-5. Ravens at Colts (47.5)
t-5. Bears at Panthers (47.5)
t-5. Cardinals at Chargers (47.5)

Lowest Game Totals

t-13. Falcons at Steelers (40.5)
t-13. Dolphins at Raiders (40.5)
15. Browns at Jaguars (40.0)
16. Jets at Titans (38.5)

Projected Points

We can use Vegas lines to calculate how many points each team is expected to score this week (called "implied points").

Here's how each team stacks up this week:

Highest Implied Points

1. Chargers (28.5)
2. Lions (28.25)
3. Bengals (27.0)
4. Cowboys (25.75)
5. Rams (25.5)
t-6. Ravens (25.25)
t-6. Bears (25.25)
8. Eagles (25.0)

Lowest Implied Points

27. Commanders (19.5)
28. Cardinals (19.0)
29. Dolphins (18.75)
30. Jets (18.5)
31. Falcons (17.25)
32. Browns (15.75) 

Projected Plays

The chart below shows how many plays we're projecting each team to run vs. the league average for the week. More plays = more chances for fantasy points.

Most Projected Plays

1. Cowboys (64.4)
2. Bears (63.9)
3. Lions (63.5)
t-4. Rams (63.3)
t-4. Saints (63.3)

Fewest Projected Plays

28. Jets (60.7)
t-29. Seahawks (60.5)
t-29. Panthers (60.5)
31. Browns (59.8)
32. Dolphins (59.7)

Weather Concerns

No weather issues this week!

Quarterback

5 Best QB Matchups (based on 2025 adjusted fantasy points allowed)

1. Jaxson Dart vs. Cowboys (+46.0%)
2. Joe Burrow vs. Buccaneers (+22.7%)
3. Cam Ward vs. Jets (+21.1%)
4. Tua Tagovailoa at Steelers (+20.1%)
5. Jalen Hurts vs. Commanders (+19.1%)

5 Worst QB Matchups (based on 2025 adjusted fantasy points allowed)

28. Jayden Daniels at Eagles (-18.0%)
29. Caleb Williams at Panthers (-18.4%)
30. Jacoby Brissett at Chargers (-22.0%)
31. Josh Allen at Texans (-25.8%)
32. Jordan Love at Vikings (-36.2%)

Running Back

5 Best RB Matchups (based on 2025 adjusted fantasy points allowed)

1. Giants vs. Cowboys (+26.7%)
2. Cowboys at Giants (+24.6%)
3. Buccaneers at Bengals (+23.4%)
4. Chargers vs. Cardinals (+21.5%)
5. Titans vs. Jets (+19.2%)

5 Worst RB Matchups (based on 2025 adjusted fantasy points allowed)

28. Chiefs vs. Broncos (-13.6%)
29. Patriots at Seahawks (-16.6%)
30. Seahawks vs. Patriots (-16.9%)
31. Packers at Vikings (-17.7%)
32. Falcons at Steelers (-17.9%)

Wide Receiver

5 Best WR Matchups (based on 2025 adjusted fantasy points allowed)

1. Giants vs. Cowboys (+33.4%)
2. Panthers vs. Bears (+21.9%)
3. Colts vs. Ravens (+19.9%)
4. Ravens at Colts (+19.3%)
5. Falcons at Steelers (+17.9%)

5 Worst WR Matchups (based on 2025 adjusted fantasy points allowed)

28. Bears at Panthers (-15.4%)
29. Chiefs vs. Broncos (-15.5%)
30. Bills at Texans (-18.8%)
31. Commanders at Eagles (-20.9%)
32. Packers at Vikings (-27.8%)

WR/CB Matchup Upgrades

Bengals WRs Ja'Marr Chase and Tee Higgins vs. Buccaneers CBs Zyon McCollum, Benjamin Morrison, and Jacob Parrish

Lions WRs Amon-Ra St. Brown and Jameson Williams vs. Saints CBs Kool-Aid McKinstry, Quincy Riley, and Jonas Sanker

Giants WR Malik Nabers vs. Cowboys CBs DaRon Bland and Cobie Durant

Panthers WRs Tetairoa McMillan and Jalen Coker vs. Bears CBs Tyrique Stevenson and Cam Lewis

Chargers WR Ladd McConkey vs. Cardinals CB Garrett Williams

Titans WR Wan'Dale Robinson vs. Jets CB Jarvis Brownlee

WR/CB Matchup Downgrades

Chiefs WRs Rashee Rice and Xavier Worthy vs. Broncos CBs Pat Surtain, Riley Moss, and Ja'Quan McMillian

Buccaneers WR Emeka Egbuka vs. Bengals CB D.J. Turner

Bills WR D.J. Moore vs. Texans CBs Derek Stingley and Kamari Lassiter

Commanders WRs Terry McLaurin and Stefon Diggs vs. Eagles CBs Quinyon Mitchell, Riq Woolen, and Cooper DeJean

Tight End

5 Best TE Matchups (based on 2025 adjusted fantasy points allowed)

1. Buccaneers at Bengals (+54.2%)
2. Eagles vs. Commanders (+31.4%)
3. Raiders vs. Dolphins (+30.1%)
4. Falcons at Steelers (+29.8%)
5. Chargers vs. Cardinals (+28.0%)

5 Worst TE Matchups (based on 2025 adjusted fantasy points allowed)

28. Colts vs. Ravens (-20.5%)
29. Dolphins at Raiders (-21.3%)
30. Steelers vs. Falcons (-23.4%)
31. Commanders at Eagles (-35.4%)
32. Texans vs. Bills (-42.5%)

Defense/Special Teams

5 Best DST Matchups (based on 2025 adjusted fantasy points allowed)

1. Jaguars vs. Browns (+90.1%)
2. Dolphins at Raiders (+82.3%)
3. Packers at Vikings (+75.3%)
4. Lions vs. Saints (+47.0%)
5. Buccaneers at Bengals (+42.8%)

5 Worst DST Matchups (based on 2025 adjusted fantasy points allowed)

28. Giants vs. Cowboys (-38.5%)
29. Texans vs. Bills (-39.5%)
30. Saints at Lions (-40.3%)
31. Panthers vs. Bears (-46.1%)
32. 49ers vs Rams (-56.2%)

Kicker

5 Best K Matchups (based on 2025 adjusted fantasy points allowed)

1. Joey Slye vs. Jets (+37.8%)
2. Dominic Zvada vs. Cowboys (+32.7%)
3. Jake Bates vs. Saints (+24.6%)
4. Cameron Dicker vs. Cardinals (+24.5%)
5. Chris Boswell vs. Falcons (+15.3%)

5 Worst K Matchups (based on 2025 adjusted fantasy points allowed)

28. Jason Myers vs. Patriots (-17.4%)
29. Andres Borregales at Seahawks (-26.2%)
30. Harrison Mevis vs. 49ers (-27.9%)
31. Andre Szmyt at Jaguars (-34.2%)
32. Tyler Bass at Texans (-40.3%)