FFPC Main Event Strategy Guide: How to win at QB and TE
In the final part of our FFPC Main Event Strategy Series, I’ll discuss how to attack the onesie positions: TE and QB.
In Part 2, I gave a few ideas on some TEs and QBs to draft. But these positions can sometimes be faded by owners, leaving value after the single digit rounds. Smashing the flex positions is one of the most important strategies for a draft, but you don’t want to give up on QB or TE while doing so. Don't forget, we are trying to win $500K here and we need a juggernaut at every position.
There are a few successful ways to draft TE and QB, so let's get started.
You should definitely check out the 2021 TE Strategy Guide. This is a starting point. But the FFPC is TE premium (1.5 PPR for TEs), so we need to treat it differently.
If you want one of the elite TEs you need to be prepared to use your first round pick on either Travis Kelce or Darren Waller.
As you can see from the FFPC Main Event ADP above, if you don't have a top 3 pick you probably aren’t getting Kelce. I have the 2nd pick in 2 Main Events and will be taking Dalvin Cook in 1 and Kelce in the other, assuming McCaffery goes 1.01. Kelce is such a huge advantage in these TE-premium leagues, but you have to be willing to be thin on RB in the early rounds to grab that early TE.
Waller is my clear cut TE2, but I struggle to take him that early in Round 1 when I can have T.J. Hockenson in Round 3 or sometimes Round 4. A case can certainly be made for Waller here, but unless I am getting the no-doubt TE1 in Round 1 I usually pass.
After Round 1
Kittle has been falling to the late 2nd round in recent Main Events. I know it’s scary to think about, but I have been fading Kittle all offseason. Question marks about the QBs and new weapons emerging are concerns for Kittle’s volume. My biggest knock on Kittle has more to do with another player....
Hockenson has been going a full round later and, to me, is a lock for more targets than Kittle. The Lions will always be playing from behind -- and don't forget he’s already broken out as the TE4 in 2020 on only 101 targets. I think 120 or even 130 targets are within reach for this future star. He has been the top TE I have been targeting after Kelce.
Mid-Round Dead Zone
The mid rounds are the TE Dead Zone. The TEs with the 3rd, 4th and 5th highest win rates from 2020 came from ADPs of TE10 or later. I usually don’t touch TE in this range, instead opting for WRs. If I did go TE, it would be Noah Fant (ADP 6.10) or Tyler Higbee (ADP 7.04).
In 2019, Higbee showed the ability to carry a fantasy team when given the opportunity. Maybe he gets the chance again with TE Gerald Everett gone.
Noah Fant has a chance to be a breakout star, and I think low aDot QB Teddy Bridgewater winning the job in Denver is a good sign for Fant.
If I don't take an Elite TE in Rounds 1-3, I fade the position until the double digit rounds. Here are my top TE targets with ADP. Don't be afraid to take 2 or 3 of them. In 2019 when I placed 5th in the Main Event, I had Ertz, Goedert and Gesicki.
Jonnu Smith (10.02)
Gerald Everett (11.02)
Hunter Henry (12.12)
Austin Hooper (13.12)
Zach Ertz (14.01)
Hayden Hurst (20.05)
Tyler Conklin (20.12)
Waiting on a QB has been beaten into my head since I was a young boy. You only have to start 1 QB, so why spend top draft capital? Well the answer is simple… kind of.
The top QBs have such great rushing upside that they can put up those monster weeks that can help win $500K. In 2019, I had Lamar Jackson at QB. He finished as the QB1 and made me a ton of money.
So yes, I want those QBs with that huge rushing and spike-week potential. But here’s the catch: You don’t need to spend top draft capital to get it. I drafted Jackson in the double digit rounds in 2019. That's what made him so valuable. I was able to grab RBs and WRs through the single digit rounds and add Lamar as the icing on the cake.
Take an elite QB?
The only reason to take one of the elite QBs is to stack them with an early receiver for huge scoring potential in the money weeks (15-17). I would only take Patrick Mahomes, Josh Allen, Kyler Murray, Lamar Jackson or Dak Prescott if I was stacking them with their top receiving options. I still prefer to pass on the elites and lock in massive upside in the double digit rounds.
This is where you can get a leg up on your opponents. Find that QB in the middle to late rounds that has weekly QB1 upside. Here are a few of my favorites.
Trey Lance (ADP: 12.08)
Rushing upside to the moon. Lance is only a rookie and isn't starting the season as the starter (probably). But with Shannahan at the helm, Lance could be a late season money winner. The 49ers also boast the easiest QB strength of schedule by far. Don't be afraid to take him as your first QB.
Justin Fields (12.12)
Notice a trend? I want that rushing upside for high-end QB1 weeks. I expect Fields to take over by Week 3 and never look back. Watching him run around in the preseason has me even more hyped. He has top 8 QB upside and is going as QB14.
Sam Darnold (18.5)
Darnold will be re-born in Carolina. The Panthers are absolutely loaded with talent and Darnold will be the beneficiary. I can see a healthy Darnold finishing around QB15 and he’s being drafted as QB25. You can almost get him as your last pick and is a perfect pairing with Lance or Fields while you wait for them to get the starter role.
I hope some of these strategies and targets are useful to you in your Main Event drafts. I have been using these strategies for years with much success. Don’t be afraid to push the limits and get your guys ... this is the FFPC Main Event after all!
DraftSharks.com has all the in-season tools you need to dominate after the draft, from free agent targets to strength of schedule updates to start/sit recommendations.
See you all in the draft room. Good luck!