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IDP Hits: Week 12

By Matt Schauf | Updated on Sat, 25 Nov 2023 . 1:00 PM EST

Target This Matchup Every Week

The Giants may have snatched the surprise win from last week’s road trip to Washington. But they also continued to confirm that they’re a high-upside sack matchup for literally every defense.

They allowed 9 sacks in that game to a D that recently traded away its top two pass rushers and has since fired its DC. Here’s how those 9 sacks got distributed:

• LB David Mayo 2
• DT Jonathan Allen 1.5
• Edge K.J. Henry 1.5 (more on him below)
• LB Jamin Davis 1
• DT Daron Payne 1
• CB Benjamin St-Juste 1
• Edge Casey Toohill 1

This doesn’t necessarily mean you should play all potential sackers against Tommy DeVito going forward. But it does mean that everyone with any pass-rush chances gets a boost.

This week for New England, that means these guys hit the IDP radar:

• Edge Deatrich Wise
• Edge Anfernee Jennings
• Edge Josh Uche
• DT Christian Barmore

LBs Ja’Whaun Bentley and Jahlani Tavai also gain sack upside. Each is averaging at least 6 pass-rushing opportunities per game for the season.

And don’t be surprised if we get sack production from safeties Kyle Dugger and Jabrill Peppers.

Upside in Fantasy Playoffs

The Giants (finally, mercifully) get their bye in Week 13. Here's who they face on the other side of that, plus some sneaky potential sackers on those teams:

• Packers
  • Edge Preston Smith
  • DT Kenny Clark
  • DT Devonte Wyatt
• Saints
  • Edge Cameron Jordan
  • DT Bryan Bresee
• Eagles
  • Edge Josh Sweat
  • DT Fletcher Cox
  • DT Jalen Carter
• Rams
  • DT Kobie Turner
  • Edge Michael Hoecht
  • LB Ernest Jones

Week 12 IDP Injuries to Watch

• Frankie Luvu, LB, Carolina Panthers (shoulder)
• Robert Spillane, LB, Las Vegas Raiders (ankle)
• Devin White, LB, Tampa Bay Buccaneers (foot)
• Germaine Pratt, LB, Cincinnati Bengals (illness)
• Ja’Whaun Bentley, LB, New England Patriots (hamstring)
• Anthony Walker, LB, Cleveland Browns (hamstring)
• Deatrich Wise, DE, New England Patriots (shoulder)
• Roy Robertson-Harris, DT, Jacksonville Jaguars (ankle)
• Logan Hall, DL, Tampa Bay Buccaneers (illness)
• Marcus Epps, S, Las Vegas Raiders (neck)
• Juan Thornhill, S, Cleveland Browns (calf)
• Marlon Humphrey, CB, Baltimore Ravens (calf)
• Carlton Davis, CB, Tampa Bay Buccaneers (hip)

Team Notes

Arizona Cardinals

If you haven’t already noticed him, DT Dante Stills is worth some attention in deeper redraft leagues and dynasty formats.

The sixth-round rookie quickly worked into a prominent defensive role, reaching a 41% snap share in Week 3. He hasn’t dipped below that number since and has topped 50% in five of the ensuing eight games.

That includes 58%, 58%, and 82% the past three weeks. And Still has produced. He’s up to 3.5 sacks, 5 tackles for loss and 5 QB hits on the season. The past four weeks alone have included 2.5 sacks, 3 tackles for loss and 4 QB hits.

Upside Prospect

Stills has more than just early playing time and recent production going for him. He sported an intriguing prospect profile.

The West Virginia alum is slender for the position – 286 pounds at 6’3.5 – with short arms (22nd percentile). But he delivered 74th-percentile or better measurements among DTs in:

• 40 time: 4.85 seconds (93rd)
• 10-yard split: 1.72 seconds (74th)
• Broad jump: 9’5 (90th)
• 3-cone drill: 7.38 seconds (79th)

That indicates the burst and agility to be able to work his way into the backfield. And so do his college stats:

• 53.0 career tackles for loss
• 24.5 career sacks
• Two seasons of more than 1.0 TFL per game

Combine that with the early returns, and Stills looks at least stashable for DT-required dynasty formats and potentially usable now in deeper DT-required leagues.

Buffalo Bills

LB Tyrel Dodson delivered a strong stat line in the Week 11 win over the Jets:

• 7 tackles (6 solo)
• 1 sack
• 1 forced fumble

If you’re wondering why he doesn’t sit higher in the Week 12 LB rankings, it’s because Dodson played just 68% of the snaps.

I’m chalking the performance up to the opponent more than Dodson’s weekly upside.

Buffalo’s next four games feature opponents that have been negative matchups for LB scoring – plus a Week 13 bye in the middle. Dodson’s not especially interesting on waivers.

Chicago Bears

LB Tremaine Edmunds tallied 8 tackles (4 solo) and an INT in Sunday’s return from a knee injury. But he also saw his snaps limited vs. his pre-injury role.

Edmunds played 66% of snaps Sunday at Detroit. Just one of his eight healthy games fell short of 94% snap share before the Week 8 injury.

We’ll see whether the Bears were just easing him back in or want to keep LB Jack Sanborn more involved. 

Sanborn’s 47% share against the Lions was obviously down vs. the two games Edmunds missed, but it beat his usual involvement from before Edmunds’ injury.

Cleveland Browns

Edge Za’Darius Smith has seen his playing time drop over the past three games.

It started subtly. Week 9 found Smith matching his season low in total snaps (30) and finishing just a percentage point short of his previous low. But that 58% snap share dipped to 50% and then 48% the next two games.

At the same time, though, Smith has generated 4 QB hits over the past three games. That matched his total from the previous six contests. So maybe the 31-year-old needs this change to get more effective.

Looking Ahead

We knocked Smith down the rest-of-season rankings. If he can play well over the next three weeks, though, Smith might return to the IDP starting mix in time for a Week 15 matchup with Chicago and a Week 17 home date with the Jets.

Edge Ogbonnia Okoronkwo notched a season-high 5 tackles (4 solo) last time out and his first sack since Week 4. That production might suggest that Okoronkwo picked up the playing time Smith lost. But no.

Okoronkwo’s 57% snap share against Pittsburgh fit right in the middle of his range for the season.

He did rack up 4 tackles for loss against the Steelers, though. We’ll see if that motivates any playing-time boost.

Houston Texans

With LB Denzel Perryman serving the first half of his two-game suspension, LBs Christian Harris and Blake Cashman both played 100% of the defensive snaps in Sunday’s win over the Cardinals.

It marked the first time this season that two Houston LBs played every snap. Week 6 found Cashman playing 100% and Henry To’oTo’o missing just 1 snap. The two games before that found two LBs cracking 90%.

Overall, though, this defense has given us no more than one full-timer per week. And the lead LB in both Week 9 and Week 10 played less than 90%.

Here's your list of playing-time leaders by week:

• Week 10: Perryman 86%, Harris 64%
• Week 9: Cashman 82%, Perryman 65%
• Week 8: Cashman 91%
• BYE
• Week 6: Cashman 100%, To’oTo’o 99%
• Week 5: To’oTo’o 97%, Cashman 96%
• Week 4: To’oTo’o 95%, Harris 90%
• Week 3: To’oTo’o 95%, Cashman 63%
• Week 2: Perryman 100%, To’oTo’o 81%
• Week 1: Perryman 95%, Harris 72%

Pittsburgh Steelers

After losing LBs Cole Holcomb and Kwon Alexander to season-ending injuries in consecutive weeks, the Steelers rolled out LB Elandon Roberts for 100% playing time Sunday against the Browns. LB Mykal Walker – newly off the practice squad – got in for 84%.

Those are higher rates than either of the team’s top 2 LB roles have yielded this season. Chalk at least some of that up to the matchup, with a Cleveland offense sporting rookie QB Dorian Thompson-Robinson in just his second start. 

Extra LBs likely made sense in the plan to spy DTR’s potential rushing, combat an expected lean on the RBs, and as part of a pass defense likely expecting targets to travel shorter on average than with Deshaun Watson in the lineup.

Continue to treat Roberts as the lead and a weekly starting option for IDP lineups. We’ll see about Walker – as well as Myles Jack, whom Pittsburgh brought back from retirement this week.

Tennessee Titans

LB Monty Rice emerged as the surprising tackle leader in Sunday’s loss to the Jaguars. His 8 tackles came on just 41% playing time, so he still shouldn’t be in your IDP plans. But his role should command some attention.

Rice’s increased playing time the past two games has come at the expense of starter Jack Gibbens. The second-year LB went from a season-high 82% snap share in the Week 9 loss to the Steelers, to 42% in Week 10 and then 41% against the Jaguars.

Sunday marked the first game this year that Gibbens didn’t open on the field.

That makes him droppable in redraft IDP leagues. Gibbens has produced just decent tackle production, which makes him not worth waiting on, to see if playing time swings back in his favor.

Lead LB Azeez Al-Shaair also saw his playing time dip vs. Jacksonville (70%). But that’s an outlier vs. the rest of his season. Al-Shaair has played at least 92% in every other game.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Rookie Edge Yaya Diaby racked up 2 sacks among 3 tackles for loss in Sunday’s defeat at San Francisco. That doesn’t necessarily mean you should start him this week.

Diaby’s impressive performance does give him 4 QB hits and 5 tackles for loss over just the past two weeks. All four of his sacks for the season have come within the past four games.

So what’s the problem? His playing time remains low. Diaby played just 35% of the defensive snaps against the 49ers. For the season, he has played 35.4% of snaps and hasn’t exceeded 43% in a game.

That’s obviously enough for Diaby to produce at times. But it’s not quite enough for us to start him in most IDP lineups.

That said, the recent production for the third-round pick with a 98th-percentile speed score certainly bodes well for his future. You should stash Diaby on your dynasty roster.

Tampa Bay’s current edge starters are 31-year-old Shaq Barrett and Joe Tryon-Shoyinka, who has disappointed vs. his 2021 first-round draft status.

Washington Commanders

Another rookie edge rusher, K.J. Henry, delivered 1.5 sacks and 2 passes defensed in Sunday’s loss to the Giants. But was it a breakout performance or a blip?

The full answer there is obviously unknown. But you shouldn’t get excited about Henry right now.

The fifth-round pick didn’t open the game on the field. Seventh-round classmate Andre Jones started opposite Casey Toohill. Henry did play 67% of snaps to rank second behind Toohill. But he had played just 21 total snaps for the season before Sunday. Week 9 marked Henry’s first defensive action of the year, following seven games as a healthy scratch.

Thursday’s loss to the Cowboys found him playing another 57% of the snaps … but offering basically nothing statistically.

He was also just OK as a prospect. Henry supplied a nice 78th-percentile speed score via Combine testing, running an 84th-percentile 40 time at 6’4, 251 pounds. But he never reached 10 tackles for loss in a season across five years at Clemson and never tallied more than 4 sacks in a season.

You can stash him in dynasty and see what happens if you’d like. But I’m much more interested in the Bucs’ Diaby (above).

More Week 12 Fantasy Football Tips

Matt and Jared preview Week 12 on the offensive side in this video ... with a look ahead to streaming defenses for Week 13 and beyond.