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132 Things I Learned Doing 2024 Fantasy Football Projections

By Jared Smola | Updated on Mon, 08 Apr 2024 . 1:37 PM EDT

Fantasy Football Projections: Key to Accurate Rankings

If detailed fantasy football projections aren’t part of your rankings process, you’re doing it wrong.

Fantasy football, after all, is a game based purely on statistical production.

Creating projections assigns statistical values to every player, rather than just ranking guys based on gut feel.

The projections process also forces us to take a deep dive into every team and every player.

That includes:

• Coaching tendencies
• Play volume
• Run-pass splits
• Performance trends
• Rush and target shares
• Efficiency metrics

These projections fuel our fantasy football rankings – which, by the way, have been the most accurate in the industry for three years running.

The 2024 fantasy football projections and rankings are available right now. We'll constantly tweak and update them throughout the offseason right up until the season opener.

As I worked through the projections, I jotted down interesting, noteworthy, or surprising tidbits I dug up. You'll find 132 of them below.

Enjoy!

Arizona Cardinals Projections

1. Kyler Murray’s ranks among QBs from Week 10 on:

• sixth in carries
• fifth in rushing yards
• fifth in rushing TDs
• fifth in red-zone carries
• third in carries inside the 5-yard line

2. Among 49 RBs with 90+ carries last year, James Conner ranked:

• fifth in yards per carry
• fourth in NFL Next Gen Stats’ rush yards over expected per attempt
• fifth in Pro Football Focus rush grade
• second in yards after contact per attempt
• fourth in PFF elusive rating

All five marks were career bests.

3. Michael Wilson’s 1.36 yards per route run last year ranked just 55th among 80 WRs with 50+ targets. But it was better than teammates Marquise Brown (1.25), Greg Dortch (1.15), and Rondale Moore (0.73).

4. Trey McBride’s 2.03 yards per route run last year ranked second to only George Kittle (2.22) among 33 TEs with 40+ targets. McBride’s YPRR jumped to 2.16 in eight games with QB Kyler Murray.

Atlanta Falcons Projections

5. Among 49 RBs with 90+ carries last season, Bijan Robinson ranked:

• 12th in RYOE per attempt
• 14th in yards after contact per attempt
• eighth in elusive rating

6. Drake London has scored 6 TDs on 13.0 expected TDs over the past two seasons. No WR has a bigger gap between actual and expected TDs during that span.

7. After averaging 9.3 yards per target and 2.02 YPRR as a rookie, Kyle Pitts has averaged 6.9 yards per target and 1.51 yards per route over the last two years.

Baltimore Ravens Projections

8. Lamar Jackson set career highs last year in:

• completion rate (67.2%)
• yards per pass attempt (8.0)
• PFF passing grade (85.1)

9. Jackson’s designed carries per game by season:

• 2018 -- 8.4
• 2019 -- 9.8
• 2020 -- 8.6
• 2021 -- 6.9
• 2022 -- 7.2
• 2023 -- 5.3

10. Zay Flowers averaged 6.4 targets per game on a 22.1% share in nine games with a healthy Mark Andrews vs. 7.1 targets per game on a 24.5% share in seven games without Andrews.

11. Mark Andrews’ 1.96 yards per route run last year ranked third among 33 TEs with 40+ targets. He has now ranked top 6 in YPRR at his position in all six of his NFL seasons.

Buffalo Bills Projections

12. The Bills in the first 10 games of the season under OC Ken Dorsey:

• 58.8% pass rate
• 59.6% neutral pass rate
• +5% Pass Rate Over Expected

Over the final seven games under OC Joe Brady:

• 48.2% pass rate
• 52.0% neutral pass rate
• -4% Pass Rate Over Expected

13. Josh Allen averaged 6.0 designed carries per game and 9.0 total carries per game under Brady – way up from his 2.0 designed carries per game and 4.8 total carries per game under Dorsey.

14. James Cook’s per-game splits with Dorsey vs. Brady:

• Dorsey: 12.0 carries, 2.8 targets, 11.2 expected PPR points (31st among RBs)
• Brady: 16.7 carries, 3.7 targets, 16.2 expected PPR points (10th)

15. Dalton Kincaid averaged 7.4 targets on a 19.8% share in five games without Dawson Knox vs. 4.9 targets on a 14.9% share in 11 games with Knox.

Carolina Panthers Projections

16. There have been 26 rookie QBs to attempt 300+ passes over the last 10 seasons. Bryce Young’s ranks among them:

• Passing yards per game: 23rd
• Completion rate: 16th
• Yards per attempt: 25th
• TD rate: 24th
• QB rating: 20th

17. Diontae Johnson drew 23.7% of Steelers targets in his 12 healthy games last year – down from 27.9% in 2021 and 25.7% in 2022.

18. Adam Thielen’s numbers in his first seven games vs. final 10 games last year:

19. Among 80 WRs with 50+ targets last season, Jonathan Mingo ranked:

• 80th in yards per target
• 79th in yards per route run
• 79th in PFF receiving grade

Chicago Bears Projections

20. Khalil Herbert has 11 career games with more than 12 carries. In those games, he has averaged:

• 18.6 carries
• 95.5 rushing yards
• 0.55 rushing TDs
• 5.1 yards per carry

21. D.J. Moore averaged 2.31 yards per route run last year. All other Bears WRs combined to average 0.70.

22. Keenan Allen averaged 8.3 catches per game last year, giving him 6+ catches per game in nine straight seasons.

23. Cole Kmet has improved his YPRR and PFF receiving grade each season. He ranked seventh in both metrics last year among 45 qualifying TEs.

Cincinnati Bengals Projections

24. After totaling just two carries over Cincinnati's first 11 games, Chase Brown claimed 7.0 carries per game on a 25.8% carry share over the final six.

Cleveland Browns Projections

25. The Browns ran 50 more plays than any other team last season. That was bigger than the gap from the No. 2 team to the No. 13 team in plays.

26. Among 45 QBs with 150+ pass attempts last year, Deshaun Watson ranked:

• 37th in completion rate
• 32nd in adjusted completion rate
• 41st in completion rate over expected
• 30th in yards per attempt
• 26th in PFF passing grade

27. Amari Cooper averaged a career-best 2.31 yards per route run last year, 14th among 80 qualifying WRs.

28. Elijah Moore ranked 64th among those 80 WRs with 1.14 yards per route. That followed an 80th-place finish among 80 qualifiers in 2022.

29. David Njoku drew a 15.6% target share in Deshaun Watson’s five healthy games vs. a 22.5% share in Njoku's 11 other games.

Dallas Cowboys Projections

30. In six games prior to their bye week last year, the Cowboys registered a:

• 53.6% pass rate
• 58.2% neutral pass rate
• -2% Pass Rate Over Expected

Over their final 11 games, those marks jumped to:

• 60.8% pass rate
• 61.2% neutral pass rate
• +7% Pass Rate Over Expected

31. CeeDee Lamb’s target shares by season:

• 2020 -- 17.4%
• 2021 -- 20.0%
• 2022 -- 28.1%
• 2023 -- 29.5%

32. Lamb has also improved his PFF receiving grade and yards per route run each season. He ranked third in PFF grade and fifth in YPRR among 80 qualifying WRs last year.

33. Jake Ferguson’s seven expected receiving TDs tied Travis Kelce for most among TEs. He tied for third at the position with 24 red-zone targets and tied for second with nine end-zone targets. (Ferguson’s 5 TDs tied for just seventh among TEs.)

Denver Broncos Projections

34. Javonte Williams’ carry share climbed from 44.9% over his first five games of last season to 52.5% over his final 11. His target share sunk, though, from 16.5% to 13.1%.

35. Broncos RBs accounted for 29.2% of the team’s targets last year, well above the league-average RB target share of 17.8%.

36. Courtland Sutton scored 14 TDs on 239 catches (5.9%) across his first five NFL seasons. He scored 10 times on 59 catches (16.9%) last year.

Detroit Lions Projections

37. The Lions led the NFL in total yards per game (387) and ranked fourth in points per game (26.9) over the last two seasons under OC Ben Johnson.

38. Carry shares in their first seven healthy games together last year:

• David Montgomery: 57.8%
• Jahmyr Gibbs: 28.9%

Final eight games:

• Montgomery: 48.2%
• Gibbs: 42.3%

39. Amon-Ra St. Brown has improved in each season in:

• catches
• receiving yards
• receiving TDs
• yards per target
• yards per route

40. Jameson Williams averaged 5.0 yards per target over his first 11 career games. He has averaged 10.1 over his last 10.

41. Sam LaPorta’s ranks among all rookie TE seasons since 2000:

• targets: second
• catches: first
• receiving yards: third
• receiving TDs: first
• PPR points per game: first

42. LaPorta led all TEs last year with 10 TDs but ranked just fourth with 6.8 expected TDs.

Green Bay Packers Projections

43. Jordan Love’s ranks over the final eight games of 2023:

• first in passing yards
• second in passing TDs
• third in completion rate
• 10th in yards per attempt
• first in PFF passing grade
• first in fantasy points

44. Here's how the Packers' top four WRs ranked in yards per route in 2023 (including playoffs):

1. Jayden Reed (1.95)
2. Dontayvion Wicks (1.94)
3. Romeo Doubs (1.64)
4. Christian Watson (1.48)

45. And here’s how they ranked in targets per route:

1. Reed (0.23)
2. Wicks (0.20)
3. Doubs (0.19)
4. Watson (0.19)

46. Luke Musgrave beat Tucker Kraft last year in targets per route (0.18 to 0.14), yards per route (1.41 to 1.13), and PFF receiving grade (69.6 to 65.1).

Houston Texans Projections

47. C.J. Stroud’s 8.2 yards per pass attempt last year ranked third among 30 qualifying QBs and first among 51 seasons of 300+ pass attempts by rookie QBs since 2000.

48. Joe Mixon led all RBs with 12.6 expected rushing TDs last year.

49. Mixon’s carries per game climbed from 14.6 over the first 11 games to 16.0 over the final six. But his carry share sunk from 73.2% to 58.9%.

50. Among 49 RBs with 90+ carries last year, Dameon Pierce ranked:

• 49th in yards per carry
• 47th in rush yards over expected per attempt
• 47th in yards after contact per attempt
• 46th in PFF rushing grade

51. Stefon Diggs averaged 8.6 yards per target and 2.45 yards per route run over the first nine games. Those averages plummeted to 5.5 and 1.38 over the final seven games. Those latter marks ranked 75th and 49th, respectively, among 79 qualifying WRs.

52. Nico Collins and Tank Dell played 50+% of snaps together in seven games last season. Production in those games:

53. Collins became just the fifth WR over the past 10 seasons to average 3+ YPRR on 50+ targets. (The others: Julio Jones, Cooper Kupp, Tyreek Hill, and Brandon Aiyuk.)

Indianapolis Colts Projections

54. Anthony Richardson totaled 20 carries and 13 designed carries in his two full games last year. That’s a full-season pace of 170 carries, which would have led all QBs, and 111 designed carries, which would have tied Jalen Hurts for tops at the position.

55. After ranking top-7 among RBs in PFF rushing grade in each of his first two NFL seasons, Jonathan Taylor ranked 34th among 42 qualifiers in 2022 and 29th out of 49 last year.

56. Michael Pittman averaged 10.1 targets on a 29.7% target share in his 15 healthy games, both top-8 marks among WRs.

Jacksonville Jaguars Projections

57. Trevor Lawrence’s 3.7% passing TD rate last year ranked 21st among 31 qualifiers. His 3.3% TD rate over the last three seasons ranks 27th out of 30 qualifiers.

58. Travis Etienne’s yards per carry plummeted from 5.1 in 2022 to 3.8 last year. The biggest culprit was a lack of long runs. Just 3.7% of his carries went for 15+ yards last year, way down from 7.3% in 2022.

59. Christian Kirk drew 22.3% of Jaguars targets in 2022 … and 22.3% of targets in his 11 healthy games last year.

60. In eight games with a snap rate north of 60% last year, Zay Jones averaged 7.4 targets on an 18.5% share.

61. Evan Engram’s 114 catches last year were the second most by a TE in NFL history, behind only Zach Ertz’s 116 in 2018. Both guys had Doug Pederson has their HC.

Kansas City Chiefs Projections

62. Chiefs pass rates in Patrick Mahomes’ six starting seasons:

• 2018 -- 61.1%
• 2019 -- 61.6%
• 2020 -- 61.9%
• 2021 -- 62.0%
• 2022 -- 61.9%
• 2023 -- 61.4%

63. Mahomes’ intended air yards per pass attempt has declined each season. Last year’s 6.5-yard average ranked 30th among 32 qualifiers.

64. Among 49 RBs with 90+ carries last season, Isiah Pacheco ranked:

• 17th in yards after contact per attempt
• 8th in rush yards over expected per attempt
• 10th in PFF rushing grade

65. Rashee Rice registered a 68+% route rate in each of his final six regular-season games. His averages in those games:

• 9.3 targets
• 7.2 catches
• 86.3 yards
• 0.5 TDs
• 18.8 PPR points

66. Travis Kelce’s 14.8 PPR points per game last year were his fewest since 2016 … but still led all TEs.

Las Vegas Raiders Projections

67. Zamir White beat Josh Jacobs last year in:

• yards per carry
• yards after contact per attempt
• missed tackles forced per attempt
• RYOE per attempt
• PFF elusive rating
• PFF rushing grade

68. Davante Adams has ranked second league-wide in targets each of the last three seasons (169, 180, 175 targets).

69. Adams finished last year with his lowest YPRR and PFF receiving grade since 2017. His 6.5 yards per target was his worst since 2015.

70. Jakobi Meyers scored on 1.2% of his catches over his first three NFL seasons. He has scored on 10.1% of his catches over the last two, including 11.3% last year.

Los Angeles Chargers Projections

71. 49ers ranks in plays per game under new Chargers HC Jim Harbaugh:

• 2011 -- 24th
• 2012 -- 30th
• 2013 -- 31st
• 2014 -- 21st

72. Justin Herbert’s 6.8 yards per pass attempt over the past two seasons ranked 22nd among 32 qualifying QBs. (He averaged 7.4 yards per attempt over his first two seasons.)

73. Among 80 WRs with 50+ targets last season, Quentin Johnston ranked:

• 71st in yards per target
• 75th in yards per route run
• 74th in PFF receiving grade

Los Angeles Rams Projections

74. Matthew Stafford earned a career-best 83.8 PFF passing grade in 2023. That ranked seventh among 30 qualifying QBs.

75. Among 49 RBs with 90+ carries last year, Kyren Williams ranked:

• 10th in RYOE per attempt
• seventh in yards after contact per attempt
• 12th in PFF elusive rating
• third in PFF rushing grade

76. Williams ranked second to Christian McCaffrey with 1.0 rushing TDs per game and led the league with 0.89 expected rushing TDs per game.

77. Among 96 rookie WRs with 50+ targets over the past 10 seasons, Puka Nacua ranked seventh in PFF receiving grade and fourth in yards per route. (The guys with more yards per route: Odell Beckham Jr., A.J. Brown, and Justin Jefferson.)

78. In 11 healthy regular-season games together, Nacua out-targeted Cooper Kupp just 95 to 94.

Miami Dolphins Projections

79. Tua Tagovailoa in 29 healthy games over the last two seasons ...

• Top-5 QB weeks: 7 (24%)
• Weeks outside the top 15: 14 (48%)

80. Opportunities in eight healthy games together last year:

• De’Von Achane: 83 carries, 35 targets
• Raheem Mostert: 96 carries, 21 targets

81. Tyreek Hill drew 30.9% of Dolphins targets in Tua Tagovailoa’s 12 healthy games in 2022. He got 31.7% in his 16 games this past season.

82. Jaylen Waddle saw 22.3% of Dolphins targets in Tua Tagovailoa’s 12 healthy games in 2022. Waddle’s share climbed slightly to 22.9% in his 13 healthy games last year.

Minnesota Vikings Projections

83. Justin Jefferson set career highs last year with:

• 30.0% target share (eight healthy games)
• 2.91 yards per route run
• 91.2 PFF receiving grade

84. Jordan Addison averaged 4.9 targets on a 14.6% share in seven healthy games with Jefferson last year. He averaged 7.0 targets on a 19.9% share in eight games without Jefferson.

85. T.J. Hockenson averaged 7.6 targets on a 19.9% share in five full games with Jefferson last year vs. 9.6 targets on a 27.4% share in eight games without Jefferson. 

New England Patriots Projections

86. Rhamondre Stevenson averaged 2.8 yards per carry and 1.8 yards after contact per carry over his first five games of last season vs. 4.9 yards per carry and 3.6 yards after contact per carry over his final seven. (He averaged 5.0 yards per carry and 3.8 yards after contact per carry in 2022.)

87. In eight games with a snap rate of 60+% last year, Demario Douglas averaged:

• 6.6 targets (21.2% share)
• 4.1 catches
• 46.1 receiving yards

88. Among 93 WRs with 40+ targets last season, JuJu Smith-Schuster ranked:

• 90th in yards per target
• 76th in yards per route run
• 79th in PFF receiving grade

New Orleans Saints Projections

89. Alvin Kamara’s 0.12 missed tackles forced per attempt and 2.51 yards after contact per attempt last year were both career lows.

90. Kamara’s target shares in healthy games the last three seasons:

• 2021 -- 18.8%
• 2022 -- 17.3%
• 2023 -- 19.1%

91. Among 49 RBs with 90+ carries last year, Jamaal Williams ranked:

• 48th in yards per carry
• 49th in RYOE per attempt
• 48th in yards after contact per attempt
• 48th in PFF elusive rating
• 49th in PFF rushing grade

92. Over the last two seasons, Chris Olave ranks:

• 15th among WRs in targets
• 16th in catches
• 16th in receiving yards
• 32nd in receiving TDs

93. Rashid Shaheed drew 12.1% of Saints targets in nine games with a healthy Michael Thomas last year vs. a 16.0% share in his other six.

New York Giants Projections

94. The 2023 Giants offensive line ranked:

• 30th in PFF run-blocking grade
• 32nd in adjusted line yards
• 32nd in PFF pass-blocking grade
• 32nd in adjusted sack rate

95. Daniel Jones’ 2.6% passing TD rate over the last four seasons ranked dead last among 27 qualifiers. No other QB was lower than 3.3%.

96. In eight games with a route rate of 70+% last year, Darren Waller averaged 6.9 targets, 4.9 catches, 53 yards, and 0.13 TDs per game. His 11.0 PPR points per game in those outings would have ranked ninth among TEs on the season.

New York Jets Projections

97. Breece Hall’s ranks among RBs from Week 5 on last year:

• carries: ninth
• rushing yards: ninth
• rushing TDs: 13th
• targets: first
• receptions: first
• receiving yards: first
• receiving TDs: second
• PPR points: second

98. Among 43 RBs with 30+ targets last year, Hall ranked first in PFF receiving grade and second in YPRR.

99. Garrett Wilson averaged 1.55 yards per route run last year. All other Jets WRs combined to average 0.55.

100. Tyler Conklin was one of just seven TEs to draw 80+ targets in each of the last two seasons.

Philadelphia Eagles Projections

101. All five of new OC Kellen Moore's offenses have ranked top-4 in pace and situation-neutral pace. (The Eagles ranked 18th in neutral pace last year.)

102. Jalen Hurts sunk from 11.0 total carries and 8.2 designed carries per game in 2022 to 9.2 total carries and 6.5 designed carries per game last year.

103. Eleven of Hurts’ 15 rushing TDs last year came from the 1-yard line. (Two others came from the 3.)

104. DeVonta Smith sunk from a 25.4% target share in 2022 to a 21.3% share last year.

105. Dallas Goedert’s 1.35 yards per route run last year was a career low and ranked 17th among 33 qualifying TEs.

Pittsburgh Steelers Projections

106. Among 49 RBs with 90+ carries last year, Jaylen Warren ranked:

• third in yards per carry
• third in yards after contact per attempt
• third in RYOE per attempt
• third in PFF elusive rating
• seventh in PFF rushing grade

107. George Pickens beat Diontae Johnson last year in both yards per target (10.8 to 8.2) and yards per route run (2.11 to 1.97).

108. Johnson out-targeted Pickens 81 to 58 in their 12 healthy games together.

109. Pat Freiermuth registered career lows last year with:

• 15.9% target-per-route rate
• 1.12 YPRR
• 68.7 PFF receiving grade

San Francisco 49ers Projections

110. The 2023 49ers ranked:

• fourth in passing yards
• second in passing TDs
• DEAD LAST in pass attempts

111. Brock Purdy’s 9.6 yards per pass attempt led the league by more than a yard and ranked No. 2 among 669 QB seasons of 300+ pass attempts since 2000.

112. Christian McCaffrey set career highs last year with:

• 5.4 yards per carry
• 3.4 yards after contact per attempt
• 0.22 missed tackles forced per attempt
• 65.5 PFF elusive rating
• 90.6 PFF rushing grade

113. Targets in 12 healthy games together last season:

• Brandon Aiyuk 76
• Deebo Samuel 75
• George Kittle 61

Seattle Seahawks Projections

114. Although his fantasy production was down vs. 2022, Geno Smith earned a personal-best PFF passing grade last year and essentially matched his 2022 adjusted completion rate (77.4% vs. 77.8%).

115. In 14 games together last year, Ken Walker averaged 13.8 carries and 2.4 targets per game to Zach Charbonnet’s 5.4 carries and 2.4 targets per game.

116. Seahawks WR targets in their 16 games together last year:

• D.K. Metcalf 119
• Tyler Lockett 117
• Jaxon Smith-Njigba 93

Tampa Bay Buccaneers Projections

117. Among 49 RBs with 90+ carries last year, Rachaad White ranked:

• 40th in yards per carry
• 44th in RYOE per attempt
• 42nd in yards after contact per attempt
• 34th in PFF Elusive Rating
• 43rd in PFF rush grade

118. White’s ranks among RBs over the past two seasons:

• seventh in targets
• fourth in catches
• fourth in receiving yards
• fifth in receiving TDs

119. Mike Evans tied for tops among WRs with 13 receiving TDs and ranked third with 10.9 expected receiving TDs. He ranked sixth at his position in red-zone targets and third in end-zone targets.

120. Chris Godwin tied for 73rd among WRs with just two receiving TDs but ranked 27th with 6.2 expected receiving scores.

121. Cade Otton led all TEs with 699 pass routes last year but failed to finish higher than 20th in targets, catches, or receiving yards. He ranked 41st among 45 qualifying TEs in yards per route.

Tennessee Titans Projections

122. Four of new HC Brian Callahan’s five Bengals offenses ranked top-12 in pass rate, including a trio of top-6 finishes. (The Titans never finished higher than 24th in pass rate in six seasons under HC Mike Vrabel.)

123. Will Levis’ 10.6 average air yards per pass attempt easily led all 32 qualifying QBs last year. (C.J. Stroud finished second at 9.0 yards.)

124. Among 49 RBs with 90+ carries last season, Tyjae Spears ranked:

• 11th in yards after contact per attempt
• fourth in PFF elusive rating
• 23rd in PFF rushing grade
• 32nd in RYOE per attempt

125. Spears’ 52 catches were the 10th-most by a rookie RB over the last 10 seasons.

126. DeAndre Hopkins registered a 27.7% target share in his Titans debut last year. He has now topped a 27% share in six of his last seven seasons (across three different teams).

127. Hopkins recorded his best PFF receiving grade and YPRR last year since 2020. He ranked 18th in both metrics among 80 qualifying WRs.

128. Treylon Burks’ efficiency plummeted from 2022 to 2023:

129. Chig Okonkwo sunk from a 26.2% target-per-route rate and 2.61 yards per route run in 2022 to 18.4% and 1.31 last year.

Washington Commanders Projections

130. New OC Kliff Kingsbury landed three of his four Cardinals offenses inside the top 8 in total offensive snaps.

131. Terry McLaurin finished with career lows last year in:

• target share (20.8%)
• yards per target (7.6)
• YPRR (1.56)
• PFF receiving grade (74.6)

132. Jahan Dotson ranked 78th in YPRR and 75th in PFF receiving grade among 80 WRs with 50+ targets last year.

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