Week 4 DraftKings Tournament Picks
Russell Wilson ($5,800) + Courtland Sutton ($5,300) + Marvin Mims ($3,900)
This trio might not have 80-point upside. But 60 points would be enough considering the stack costs just $15,000.
The Broncos draw a Bears defense that ranks 31st in pass defense DVOA and will be without starting CB Jaylon Johnson and starting S Eddie Jackson on Sunday.
Denver’s 25.0-point implied total is the seventh-highest on the main slate.
Wilson has played well through three weeks, sitting 10th in Pro Football Focus’ passing grades. And he’s already turned in a 30.9-point outing.
Sutton tallied 21.1 DraftKings points last week. He’s totaled 18 targets over his last two games while leading the Broncos in pass routes in both.
Mims, meanwhile, has easily been Denver’s best WR on a per-route basis. In fact, the rookie leads the entire NFL with an absurd 7.22 yards per route.
The problem is that Mims has averaged just nine routes per game.
But there are whispers from the Denver media that the Broncos are ready to expand Mims’ role. If that’s the case, he’s a huge GPP value at just $3,900.
Joe Burrow ($6,500) + Ja’Marr Chase ($7,800) + Tee Higgins ($6,800)
It wasn’t a full-fledged breakout, but there were signs of life from the Bengals offense last Monday night. Most importantly, Burrow did not reinjure that calf. He was a full participant in practice all week.
This Sunday’s matchup vs. Tennessee gives the Bengals a chance at that breakout.
The Titans have resumed their pass-funnel ways early this season, ranking third in run defense DVOA and 26th in pass defense DVOA. As a result, they’ve faced the sixth highest Pass Rate Over Expected.
The Bengals don’t need to be convinced to pass a bunch. They rank second in pass rate and sixth in Pass Rate Over Expected so far this season.
So there’s potential for massive volume from Burrow this weekend. Against a defense allowing a 72% completion rate and 8.4 yards per pass attempt – both bottom-five marks.
Chase will carry plenty of ownership in DraftKings tournaments. But Burrow is projected for just 4% ownership and Higgins 5%.
- Josh Allen ($8,200) + Stefon Diggs ($8,100) + Dalton Kincaid ($3,200)
- Tua Tagovailoa ($7,400) + Tyreek Hill ($9,200) + Jaylen Waddle ($7,600)
- Justin Herbert ($7,800) + Keenan Allen ($7,900) + Quentin Johnston ($3,700)
James Cook, Bills ($6,300)
We want exposure to this Bills offense that’s sporting a 28.0-point implied total – second-highest on the main slate.
The passing game will be popular, but Cook is flying under the radar. He’s projected for just 8% ownership.
And, at least on paper, he has a better matchup than Buffalo’s passing game.
The Dolphins look like a run-funnel defense early on this season, ranking 12th in pass defense DVOA but 26th in run defense DVOA.
And teams are leaning run against them, registering the 13th-highest Run Rate Over Expected.
I’m not saying the Bills will come out in the Wishbone on Sunday, but Cook should be a significant part of the game plan.
The fact that he’s not getting goal-line work is a fair argument against his tournament-winning upside. But he’s as good a bet as any RB to score from distance. His 32.2% Breakaway Rate (carries of 15+ yards) ranks seventh among 42 RBs with 20+ total carries.
And Cook is getting everything else. He ranks 15th among RBs in carries and ninth in targets.
He’s already posted a 22.9-point outing this season – without scoring a TD. So 30 is within his range of outcomes.
De’Von Achane, Dolphins ($5,700)
DFS players have gotten too smart for their own good.
Five years ago, a $5,700 RB coming off a 54.3-point game would have been uber chalk the following week.
Now, a $5,700 RB coming off a 54.3-point game is projected for 2% ownership.
Folks don’t want to get caught “chasing points.”
But playing Achane this week isn’t chasing points, especially at 2% ownership.
We still don’t know exactly what this Achane-Mostert Miami backfield will look like on a weekly basis. But it’s tough to imagine Achane not having a consistently significant role after what he did last week (and the fact that the Fins spent the 84th overall pick of this spring’s draft on him.)
We know Achane has the ability to break long plays. But his DraftKings upside is also elevated by the fact that he saw six opportunities (carries + targets) inside the 10-yard line last week. Mostert got just two. So, despite his 185-pound frame, Miami seems willing to use Achane at the goal line.
The Bills are a generally solid run defense, ranking sixth in DVOA. But they’ve allowed the second highest percentage of runs against them to go for 15+ yards this season (8.9%). That’s a bad problem to have vs. Achane.
- Christian McCaffrey ($9,200)
- Tony Pollard ($7,800)
- Josh Jacobs ($7,100)
- Raheem Mostert ($6,500)
- Alvin Kamara ($6,100)
- Kyren Williams ($6,000)
Tee Higgins, Bengals ($6,800)
I’ll certainly be playing Higgins on Burrow teams. But I like him enough to play him as a one-off, too.
In fact, at 5% projected ownership against the Titans’ 28th-ranked WR defense, I think Higgins is the best tournament play we’ve seen so far this season.
Yes, he’s already turned in two duds this year. But we don’t need to rewind very far to see the upside. Higgins exploded for 28.9 DraftKings points just two weeks ago.
There’s been nothing wrong with Higgins’ usage so far this season. He’s drawn a 23% target share and ranks seventh among all WRs in air yards.
The floor is low. But the ceiling is lofty. Sounds like a perfect tournament play.
Quentin Johnston, Chargers ($3,700)
The rookie is far from a finished product. It’s why I recommended WR Josh Palmer as the cash-game play this week.
But Johnston beats Palmer on upside, making him the preferred tournament play.
That’s because Johnston is the guy who can replace the big-play ability the Chargers lost when WR Mike Williams went down with a torn ACL. The 6’3, 208-pound rookie averaged 19.0 yards per catch across three college seasons, busting long plays via both deep balls and after-catch skills.
I expect Palmer to play ahead of Johnston this weekend, but the rookie will be on the field plenty even as the No. 3 WR. Palmer ran a route on 67% of Chargers pass plays over the first three weeks of the season. That’s a fair expectation for Johnston in Week 4.
And the matchup is prime against the Raiders, who rank 29th in pass defense DVOA.
- Tyreek Hill ($9,200)
- Ja’Marr Chase ($7,800)
- Jaylen Waddle ($7,600)
- Chris Olave ($7,100)
- Puka Nacua ($6,700)
- Brandon Aiyuk ($6,200)
- George Pickens ($5,400)
- Courtland Sutton ($5,300)
- Marvin Mims ($3,900)
George Kittle, 49ers ($5,100)
It sounds like WR Deebo Samuel will play through his knee and rib injuries on Sunday. But it’s tough to believe he’ll be anywhere close to 100%.
WR Brandon Aiyuk is returning from a shoulder injury.
And WR Jauan Jennings won’t play.
So there’s a good chance that Kittle sees more volume than usual. He might even be the focal point of the passing game.
Kittle showed us last week that there’s still upside, turning nine targets into seven catches and 90 yards.
And the matchup is excellent on Sunday against a Cardinals defense that’s allowed the ninth most catches and fourth most receiving yards to TEs. They rank 20th in TE coverage DVOA.
Kittle’s 49ers have the highest implied total of the week at 28.75 points.
- Gerald Everett ($3,600)
- Dalton Kincaid ($3,200)
- Chig Okonkwo ($3,100)
- Logan Thomas ($3,100)