Falcons QB Michael Penix Jr. tossed 3 TD passes for the second straight game in Sunday's win over the 49ers. They accompanied a mere 213 yards on 25-of-34 passing (73.5% completions), a modest rate of 6.3 yards per attempt. It marked the third time this season that Penix has completed more than 70% of his throws and the fourth time he has supplied a passer rating of more than 100.
2026 Fantasy Football Impact: Expect TD Regression
Penix's scoring passes came from 1, 5, and 21 yards out. It was his second straight game with a pair of TDs from the 10-yard line or closer.
Penix has attempted nine passes from that range over the past three weeks and generated 5 TDs, vs. just two attempts and 1 TD over his first two appearances this season.
He has thrown TDs on 9.1% and 8.8% of his passes the past two weeks, after posting a 3.9% TD rate over the first three games and 3.1% over his first two seasons.
We should expect that rate to stay higher than his pre-2026 performance, but you can also bet on Penix not continuing to throw scoring passes as frequently as he has the past two weeks. He and the offense also got a boost Sunday from San Francisco's 4 turnovers.
Expect to find Penix back in mid-to-low QB2 territory for a Week 8 visit to Tampa Bay, and in similar positions beyond that.
