Don’t Trust The Box Score: The Omar Cooper Breakout is Real
The Box Score Lies. The Film Doesn't.
Fantasy football is all about the box score: Yards and TDs equal fantasy points, and fantasy points win your league.
But not every 5-100-1 is built the same. That’s why we use advanced analytics and film to identify talented players on the verge of delivering numbers.
Every week, I’ll bring my 22 years of experience analyzing college and NFL film to highlight when the box score doesn't match reality, showcasing a few players who performed significantly better or worse than their stats indicate.
Omar Cooper Jr., WR, New York Jets
Omar Cooper Jr. returned to the Jets lineup Sunday after a four-week IR stint. His high-ankle sprain didn’t seem to bother him as Cooper exploded for 103 yards and a TD, catching 6 of his 7 targets.
I watched Cooper’s film against the Patriots to see whether that stat line and WR6 PPR finish were legit.
Cooper’s TD was the most explosive play of the day. The success relied on a good play call plus Cooper’s explosiveness to hit an open zone.
The Patriots run a modified Cover-2 (with additional man coverage against Garrett Wilson). Cooper’s route splits the safeties, and he hits another gear when one of them sits slightly more shallow than he should.
That allows Cooper to get separation for what should be a pretty easy deep TD pass. Instead, Geno Smith underthrows the pass, forcing Cooper to turn around and make the catch through contact.
He succeeds and gets the long TD.
I chalk this TD up more to play design than to Cooper’s talent, but a less athletic slot WR may not have created enough separation to catch the underthrown TD. That highlights the difference between Cooper and WR Isaiah Williams, who filled in while Cooper was on IR. Williams likely doesn’t get to the spot quickly enough to turn around and make that catch with space.
This is the play that makes me buy into Cooper potentially sustaining this strong production.
Cooper goes into motion, becoming the outside WR on the play. The Patriots run a Cover-3, with star CB Christian Gonzalez in coverage. Gonzalez slides back into a deeper zone anticipating that Cooper will run further down the field. Instead, Cooper takes a sharp cut inside and fools Gonzalez for a moment.
That creates enough separation for Cooper to get across the middle and make a 19-yard catch against one of the best CBs in the league.
Cooper’s route running in college lacked the polish and suddenness to trick top DBs, but that appears to be improving in the NFL.
That offers plenty of hope for the future.
This is another good route from Cooper using a shuffle step to run a drag against CB Marcus Jones. Cooper gets a step on Jones with the play clearing out the entire left side of the field. This should produce a big after-catch gain for Cooper … but it doesn’t.
Smith places the ball a bit behind Cooper instead of leading him on the drag, so Jones tackles him immediately.
That shows one of the drawbacks for this year. The QB play may not allow Cooper to maximize his talent. Underthrows or inaccurate passes have plagued Smith for a few years, and this game was no different.
Overall, Cooper matched his box score. He looked excellent on film and may have had an even bigger day with more accurate passes.
His playing time backed it up, too. Cooper played 82.3% of snaps with an 85.7% route rate. If he stays on the field for 80+% of snaps, he should have enough opportunity to be startable as a rookie and continue his growth as a player. That is worth having on your bench to see how the Jets utilize Cooper going forward.
But Adonai Mitchell opened the season as the No. 2 WR and is nearing a return from his finger injury. We’ll have to see how they fit together playing-time wise. If Mitchell remains out this week, though, Cooper’s worth a look for your fantasy lineup.
Ja’Kobi Lane, WR, Baltimore Ravens
Ja’Kobi Lane also returned to the field Sunday from a Week 1 hand fracture. The rookie garnered buzz throughout the preseason with some hope that he can become the No. 2 WR to Zay Flowers.
Lane did not get Lamar Jackson at QB for this game but still flashed some positive traits despite a scaled-down passing approach against the Browns.
Lane runs a clean slant here for an easy completion. He handfights the CB to get a slight cushion before cutting into the slant. Lane positions himself well to box out the defender and make the catch.
He gets swallowed up soon after the catch, but Lane shows why he drew that early buzz. The Ravens have lacked a good route runner with soft hands to make clean catches into contact for years.
Lane shows that he can accomplish that.
Lane runs an in route on this play with a slight pick from the slot WR to give him a step in front of the CB. Huntley, scared of the route getting jumped, puts the ball way out in front.
Lane tracks the ball well, stretching out his hands and bringing in the pass through contact with LB Carson Schwesinger.
Jackson may have trusted himself (and Lane) a bit more and placed the ball closer to the WR. That could have helped Lane break through for some yards after the catch as well.
Lane’s hands and ball tracking give him the upside to be a possession WR who can consistently move the chains.
Not everything was positive for Lane, though. He struggled against press man coverage, especially against CB Denzel Ward.
Lane runs a corner route on this play nearing the end of the half, so the Ravens are trying to pick up big yardage.
He gets press-man coverage from Ward in Cover 1. Huntley put the ball in the right spot with no safety help over the top, but Lane never really gets free from Ward.
Ward’s physicality knocks Lane off his route, and the rookie never reaches the spot where the ball is headed to try to make a sideline catch.
There were certainly positives overall in Lane’s film. He runs sharp routes with no wasted movement, and his size, hands, and ball tracking all point to NFL-starter potential.
But there are still issues. He lacks the physicality to beat press coverage in the NFL, and he also wasn’t able to showcase much after the catch in this game. So that part remains unknown.
Lane deserves a spot on your fantasy bench, but I wouldn’t rush to start him. Jackson’s return will help the offense on whole and could benefit Lane as well, but I still think there will be a significant learning curve here.
Christian Watson, WR, Green Bay Packers
Watson was our Breakout pick heading into the season, and he has come through so far. He sits as WR5 in PPR points per game, even after a WR39 finish in Week 6.
Watson caught just 3 of 6 targets for 64 yards, while teammate Matthew Golden caught 6 of 13 targets for 104 yards and a TD. I wanted to review Watson’s film to see whether this was actually a bad game (and if Golden may pass Watson for the rest of the season).
Watson’s “worst” play was a drop in the end zone on a 27-yard pass. But, it wasn’t actually that bad (until the drop).
Watson adjusts his out route as Jordan Love moves out of the pocket. He turns upfield and loops past the man coverage, separating well enough for Love to hit him in the end zone.
But the receiver drops it.
Catching this would have made Watson WR11 for the week and given him his fourth WR1 performance of the season.
I don’t get overly worried about WR drops. They happen to everyone, and as long as they don’t become a consistent problem, they can generally be overlooked. I wouldn’t lose faith in Watson as a top-12 fantasy WR moving forward.
The rest of the game showcased Watson’s strengths, both mentally and physically.
Watson runs a hook route against the Cowboys’ Cover 2, settling behind the shallow zones. Love places the ball to the right of the MLB, forcing Watson to adjust and make a diving catch.
He reaches out and plucks it for a 27-yard completion.
Watson ran the route with a great read of the zones in front of him. He held his spot as defenders started reading Love’s eyes and closing on him. After the pass, Watson moved to make the catch with the defenders clear of the area.
That is elite WR manipulation.
Watson also displayed his after-catch ability after his in route on this play. He gets a large cushion against man coverage for an easy catch across the middle.
The safety starts to close on Watson as the pass is thrown. Watson identifies him and the angle, juking back inside to evade the contact. He picks up an additional 8 yards after the catch thanks to breaking that tackle.
This was another good game from Watson, even if that didn’t show in the box score. He got open against every type of coverage and was an end-zone drop away from WR1 territory.
