Alec Pierce Fantasy Overview

Production & Fantasy Finishes

Pierce took a significant step forward in 2025, finishing WR28 overall with 183.3 PPR points across 15 games. He averaged 12.2 points per game, good for WR27 in points per game. For context on how big that jump was:

That trajectory earned him a four-year, $114 million contract extension, and the underlying numbers explain why the Colts were willing to pay.

But Pierce was pretty volatile. He had two top-five fantasy finishes, but no other top-12 finishes last season. He also had seven weeks outside the top-36.

Pierce set career highs across the board in 2025: 84 targets, 47 catches, 1,003 yards, 6 TDs, and a 2.10 YPRR that ranked 16th among 76 WRs with 50+ targets. His 81.0 PFF receiving grade ranked 18th out of 111 qualified receivers.

Usage & Role

Pierce maintained his deep work from previous seasons while expanding his opportunities and production in other areas of the field.

Pierce ranked third on the team in target share at 17.4%, just behind Tyler Warren (19.4%) and Michael Pittman Jr. (19.7%). That increased to 18.3% in Jones’ 12 full games.

Pierce’s target share and targets per route run have improved in each of the past two seasons:

His opportunities have been increasing and should increase even more with target-share leader Pittman moving on.

Pierce also had another strong downfield season in 2025.

He led eligible WRs in:

• Average depth of target (20.0 yards),
• Yards per reception (21.3)

Pierce has consistently seen plenty of deep work:

Efficiency & Regression

What made 2025 different was Pierce’s success on short and intermediate routes. His PFF grades on those targets have climbed over the last two seasons:

Both 2025 marks were career highs. A WR who can stress defenses deep and win underneath is much tougher to cover than a one-dimensional speed threat, and that development helped earn the big contract.

Offensive Context

The environment helped too. The Colts posted a 3.1% pass rate over expected in QB Daniel Jones’ 12 full games after posting negative PROE figures in each of the prior two seasons.

More passing volume obviously means more opportunities, and Pierce capitalized. He also carried over that production to Philip Rivers and Riley Leonard games after Jones’ injury, suggesting the upswing is real and not necessarily QB dependent.

Pierce’s best two fantasy performances of the season came in Weeks 16 with Rivers (24.6 points, WR5 overall) and Week 18 with Leonard (29.1 points, WR2).

Injury History & Durability

The opportunity is real, but the concerns stack up quickly. Pierce had ankle surgery in March, hasn’t guaranteed he’ll be ready for Week 1, and is working off a reported 4-6 month recovery timeline. That leaves his early-season availability in doubt.

There’s also no guarantee Pierce will be 100% even if he opens the season on the field. We’ll have to track reports on Pierce’s practice participation and even observations on how close he looks to normal speed as the start of the season draws closer.

The timing gets even trickier when you add Jones’ Achilles recovery. If both players are easing into the season, the Colts’ passing game could open at reduced capacity and destabilize Pierce’s early fantasy outlook.

Projected Role & Competition

The silver lining is the opening in the WR room. Indy traded Michael Pittman Jr. to the Steelers and added no meaningful replacement. His 19.7% target share has to go somewhere. Pierce is an obvious candidate to absorb part of that volume after landing his new contract.

There is some competition for those targets. Tyler Warren already topped Pierce in target share last season, while Josh Downs has drawn praise from GM Chris Ballard. That means target competition, but the Colts gave Pierce $114 million because they want him heavily involved.

Paths To Ceiling

If Pierce gets healthy and stays healthy, leads the team in targets, and builds on last year’s short-to-intermediate growth, he could push into WR2 territory in fantasy scoring.

His deep-ball profile brings the kind of spike-week potential that swings fantasy matchups, and the Colts have clearly committed to him.

But the ankle surgery could cost him games or leave him compromised early in the season, and his 2025 production was a major jump from anything he’d shown before. That means he’ll need to prove factors such as the career highs in catch rate and yards per route can stick rather than regress.

If he reverts to a one-dimensional deep threat, you're looking at a volatile week-to-week option who could bust with plenty of quiet games. And, of course, there’s the risk that the ankle simply dogs him all season.

If his ADP hangs around WR36, that seems more risk than reward.