Bottom Line

Pierce doesn’t look likely to turn into a player you’ll want to start in redraft lineups this year. He needs to grow his target share significantly and get worthwhile QB play.

But Pierce’s intriguing size-speed combo, late ADP, and upside deep passer at QB make him a solid-to-good selection for best ball lineups. We like him better than Michael Pittman as a stack with Anthony Richardson, given the immense difference in draft cost.

What We Learned Last Year

• Pierce’s size and speed translated to downfield use in the pros just like in college. His 12.2-yard average depth of target last year led Colts starters. Staying around that number would be fine. Pierce’s 16.8-yard career college aDOT reveals further upside.
• As a second-round rookie, he ranked third among Colts in targets, receptions, and receiving yards. He trailed Michael Pittman and Parris Campbell in all categories, as well as playing time.
• Pierce tied for just 80th among WRs in target share.
• Among 97 WRs with 40+ targets, he ranked:
  • 67th in targets per route
  • 71st in yards per route
• The Colts threw at the league’s 10th-highest rate, on the way to a 4-12-1 record.

What to Expect in 2023

• Parris Campbell is gone. Indy added WR Isaiah McKenzie on a small one-year deal and drafted WR Josh Downs in Round 3. They figure to duke it out for the No. 3 WR role and primary slot duty.
• Pierce should be the favorite to operate as the No. 2 WR, alongside Michael Pittman.
• Indy will almost certainly pass less.
  • New HC Shane Steichen hails from a run-friendly Philadelphia scheme.
  • Rookie QB Anthony Richardson arrives with exploitable rushing upside. His speed and athleticism will also turn some pass plays into runs via scrambling.
• Richardson should be good for Pierce’s game – whenever the rookie is ready.
  • The QB did his best work on deep balls in his lone starting college season.
  • Among 148 QBs with 20+ deep attempts (20+ yards downfield), Richardson ranked (according to PFF):
    • 25th in total deep attempts
    • 20th in deep-passing grade
    • 16th in deep-passing yards
• The Colts have yet to reveal a timeline for Richardson taking over. But they had him splitting first-team reps with Gardner Minshew in OTAs. We’ll see about training camp and preseason. Historically, first-round QBs tend to reach the field before the middle of their rookie seasons.