Bottom Line

Ridley has been a very good player when on the field.

He will have been off the field for nearly two years when this season begins, though, and playing his first game with a new team.

It’s easy to bet on the talent, and you’ll want pieces of a Jacksonville offense that could challenge for a top 5 spot in scoring. But Ridley has settled in as a top-20 WR in ADP.

To pay off there, he’ll either need to emerge as Jacksonville’s target leader or regain his strong efficiency of 2020. Combining those factors would give him WR1-level upside.

What We Learned Last Year

• The only thing we learned about Ridley last year: His talent remains so desirable that Jacksonville traded two draft picks for him even though the wideout was suspended all season.
  • Atlanta got a fifth-round pick in this year’s draft and a conditional 2024 pick. That selection could be as high as the second round, if Ridley signs an extension.
• Ridley hasn’t played since October 24, 2021. He was averaging a career-high 6.2 receptions per game but down on yardage vs. the previous two years.
  • Ridley left that team midseason for mental-health reasons and then got suspended for 2022 for gambling.
• His last full season was back in 2020. Ridley finished 11th among WRs in target share that year. He also:
  • Tied for 11th in receptions
  • Ranked fourth in receiving yards
  • Tied for eighth in TD catches
  • Ranked seventh in yards per route
• It was a breakout third season for Ridley, as teammate Julio Jones missed seven of 16 games. Ridley progressed to that point through two good seasons, increasing his receptions per game and yards per catch each year.
• Christian Kirk led the 2022 Jaguars in target share, ranking 23rd among all WRs in that category. Zay Jones followed, ranking 33rd among WRs. Evan Engram ranked 14th among TEs, trailing Jones by 5 percentage points.

What to Expect in 2023

• If he’s at full strength and not rusty, Ridley is probably Jacksonville’s best WR.
• The Jaguars were one of eight teams last year that had two WRs with target shares of 20% or higher. Engram checked in third on the team at 17.1%.
• Fitting Ridley into the offense will necessarily shift targets around. We currently have Ridley and Kirk projected for about the same target shares (with Ridley missing one game). Jones follows, a few percentage points behind. And Engram sits a few more percentage points behind him.
• There’s plenty of room for those specific shares to vary, though. We’ll be watching closely through the summer for signals of the target hierarchy as well as how often Jacksonville plans to run 3-WR sets.
  • Last year’s Jags ranked just 18th in rate of “11” personnel (1 TE, 1 RB, 3 WRs) on first down, running that formation on 54% of plays.
  • Swapping out Marvin Jones for Calvin Ridley should encourage more of that. Only one of Doug Pederson’s five Eagles teams exceeded 55% in that category, though.
• Although Ridley faces plenty of target competition, it helps that no incumbent Jaguar has proved to be a target hog at any point.