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Curtis Samuel - Fantasy Points Outlook

Basic StatsCurtis Samuel's Basic Stats

Curtis Samuel
ADP: 11.7
Bye: 12
Experience: 7
Age: 27.9
Height: 5'11"
Weight: 195
40 Time: 4.31
Speed Score: 110.50

SPARQx (Rank): 119.90 (89%)
Burst Score (Rank): 122.40 (56%)
Agility Score (Rank): 11.42 (30%)
Catch Radius (Rank): 10.02 (53%)

Curtis Samuel's Weekly Outlook

Week 1 Projections
Rec Rec Yds Rec TDs Fantasy Pts
4.2 45.7 0.3 7.7
Weekly Writeup

Rest Of Way Outlook

Rec Rec Yds Rec TDs Fantasy Pts
3.5 38.3 0.2 6.2

Curtis Samuel's 2024 Projections & Outlook


#49 Wide Receiver

162.8 Projected Points

ADP Rec Rec Yds Rec TDs 100 Fum
11.7 58.8 639.8 4.2 0 0

3D Projections DS 3D Projections

Basic StatsCurtis Samuel's Preseason Player Analysis

View WR Fantasy Rankings »

Bottom Line

Samuel’s career-best fantasy finish came in 2020 – alongside current Bills OC Joe Brady.

That year, he slotted 23rd in PPR, averaging 14.1 points per game.

That’s a low-probability ceiling for Samuel. Still, his dynamic skill set should thrive with Josh Allen and a passing game that lacks proven weapons.

Consider Samuel a worthwhile mid-round target.

What We Learned Last Year

  • Samuel sat out one game with a toe injury.
    • After struggling with injuries early in his career, Samuel has now missed only one game over the past two seasons.
  • Among 49 WRs with 80+ targets, Samuel ranked 8th in catch rate, 47th in yards per catch, 47th in aDOT, and T-41st in yards per route run.
  • Samuel scored 4 TDs, bringing his career TD rate to a modest 6.9%.
    • He’s never topped 6 TDs in a single season.
  • He remained a primary slot, playing 70.2% of his snaps from that alignment.
  • Samuel benefited from a Washington offense that led the league in pass rate (69%).

What to Expect in 2024

  • Samuel brings familiarity with OC Joe Brady.
    • The duo worked together in 2020 in Carolina, when Samuel set career highs in catches (77), yards (851), and rush attempts (41).
  • Look for Samuel to be a hybrid player who works in motion to scheme up free releases/targets.
  • His contract indicates the Bills view him as a legitimate piece of the offense. Consider that they lost Stefon Diggs and Gabe Davis.
    • That duo takes away 241 targets from 2023.
    • Meanwhile, Samuel’s deal calls for $15 million in guaranteed money. He’s easily Buffalo’s highest-paid WR.
  • Keon Coleman arrived as an early Round 2 pick.
    • While he projects more on the outside, Coleman’s development will play a key role in Samuel’s ultimate target count.
    • The same goes for Khalil Shakir, who’s more similar to Samuel as a slot type. Shakir came on down the stretch last year and will push for a larger role this summer.
  • Josh Allen returns and remains squarely in his prime.
    • Aside from some issues with INTs, Allen’s advanced numbers show no cause for concern.

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Keon Coleman, WR BUF

11:59am EDT 6/14/24

Should We Expect a Slow Start From Keon Coleman?

Bills GM Brandon Beane suggested recently that WR Keon Coleman still has a lot of developing to do. Beane noted the big difference between college and NFL playbooks and that Coleman will need to learn to stay engaged on run plays.

View Full Story »

According to multiple reports, the Bills are sending WR Stefon Diggs to the Texans. Buffalo is also sending a 2024 sixth-round pick and 2025 fifth-rounder to Houston, while getting back only a second-round pick in 2025. Diggs' production fell off late last season after the Bills switched offensive coordinators. Now 30 and in a new offense, Diggs will have to show he's not in decline. He'll add the challenge of splitting targets with Houston's emergent young wideouts. Nico Collins (seventh) and Tank Dell (12th) both ranked among the top 12 WRs in PPR points per game last season, with rookie QB C.J. Stroud. The Diggs addition obviously lowers the target-share ceiling for all three wideouts. We'll also have to see exactly how Houston plans to deploy them. Diggs spent 35.7% of his pass snaps in the slot last year; 34.2% the year before. He topped 30% in that category for three of his four Buffalo seasons, surpassed only by his 2016 sophomore season (62.9%). Collins spent 20.1% of his time in the slot last year; Dell 28.7%. We'd bet on all three moving around the formation some. But Diggs could wind up primarily replacing Robert Woods (55.5% slot) and Noah Brown (39.3%). The trio gives Stroud one of the league's best WR groups and boosts his fantasy upside. The QB already sat sixth at the position in Underdog Fantasy ADP, though. That adds risk to Stroud as a draft target and gives him little room to move up. QB Josh Allen, meanwhile, has lost his top two wideouts (Gabe Davis the other) while adding only WR Curtis Samuel this offseason. The dearth of remaining talent adds risk to his fantasy outlook, though you shouldn't expect the high-level rusher to move significantly down our rankings. As for other affected players: Diggs' departure leaves target share available for TE Dalton Kincaid and Khalil Shakir. His arrival in Houston makes life tougher for TE Dalton Schultz. He already sat just 13th among TEs in best ball ADP, though, and will likely fall further following this trade. Be sure to check our rankings for your format to see all the effects of this high-impact deal.

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The Bills are signing WR Curtis Samuel to a three-year, $24 million deal, according to ESPN's Adam Schefter. The contract can be worth up to $30 million and includes $15 million in guarantees. It almost certainly locks Samuel in as the No. 2 WR alongside Stefon Diggs. It's worth noting, however, that he's getting significantly smaller annual averages than Gabe Davis (Jaguars) and Darnell Mooney (Falcons). Each of those free-agent WRs got deals with $13 million annual averages and more guaranteed money. For now, Samuel looks poised to battle TE Dalton Kincaid for the No. 2 spot in targets. Though we'll see whether Buffalo adds a WR early in the draft. Samuel presents intrigue in that his short-range game differs from the skill sets of Diggs and Davis, who spent the past four years in Buffalo. Samuel also played under Bills OC Joe Brady in Carolina in 2020, when he trailed Robbie Chosen and D.J. Moore by more than 20 targets apiece. Samuel did garner a career-high 41 carries that season, but the Panthers only got three games of RB Christian McCaffrey. For fantasy, Samuel looks interesting and obviously lands with an upside QB. But it's tough to like him as more than a high-WR4 to low-WR3. Samuel's short-range game makes him more attractive for lineup-setting leagues than best ball drafts. His arrival is also bad news for WR Khalil Shakir, who has spent 72% of his snaps in the slot over two seasons in Buffalo. Shakir can play outside as well. But you shouldn't consider him before the end of best ball drafts.

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Commanders WR Terry McLaurin managed no receptions on just 3 targets in Sunday's blowout loss to the Dolphins. And he wasn't happy about it. "I ran a lot of cardio today," he told reporters after the game. It's been a disappointing season for Washington's top wideout. Despite his offense leading the league in pass attempts entering Sunday and ranking ninth in passing yards, McLaurin was working on a career-low 57.8 yards per game. That's obviously coming down even further after Sunday's 0. WR Curtis Samuel tied with RB Antonio Gibson, and WR Jahan Dotson for the team lead with 5 targets. Samuel and Gibson caught four passes apiece, while Samuel led the team with 65 receiving yards. Washington's WRs don't look likely to help you a whole lot the rest of the way. After a Week 14 bye, the Commanders get the league's third-toughest schedule for WR scoring over the final three fantasy weeks. That includes matchups with the Jets and 49ers in the final two rounds of most fantasy playoffs.

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Commanders WR Curtis Samuel racked up 9 receptions for 100 yards in Thursday's loss to the Cowboys. He drew 27.3% of the team's targets, accounted for 32.1% of the receptions, and delivered 33.3% of the yards. No teammate exceeded 5 catches or 52 yards in the game. The big receiving line followed consecutive games that Samuel finished with just 6 and 5 receiving yards. He has reached 50 yards five times now in 11 games. But should we just chalk Thursday's numbers up to variance? Samuel's not likely to deliver another stat line that big over his final four fantasy outings. But he can be a low-level starting option the rest of the way. Samuel had caught 4+ passes in five straight games before missing Week 9 with an injury. Samuel came back for the mere three receptions across two games before the big one against Dallas. The Cowboys have been tough in coverage but also play outside WRs tougher than slot WRs. Week 13 will bring a Miami defense that has fared better against slot WRs than outside but also been a positive matchup for opponent WRs overall. Miami's offensive scoring ability also gives that game shootout potential -- or a chance Washington is chasing once again. Either case would drive up passing volume. Washington gets its bye in Week 14. But then come two more opponents (Rams and Jets) that allow more production to slot WRs than outside. A Week 17 matchup with San Francisco doesn't look good for anyone. Though Samuel's short average target depth (6.4 yards) could help his volume in another matchup that's likely to find the Commanders trailing. He carries some low-level upside in deeper leagues, as a WR3 or PPR flex. Just don't overrate Samuel's production in Dallas.

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Dynasty Overview View WR Dynasty Rankings »

Curtis Samuel, WR BUF
Dynasty MVP 80.0
Position Rank #101 WR
3yr Projection
5yr Projection
10yr Projection
Dynasty Write-up
Samuel tallied a ho-hum 62-613-4 line in 2023. A March move to Buffalo reunites him with former OC Joe Brady. The change of scenery also allows for a higher target ceiling, especially after the Bills' trade of Stefon Diggs.
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