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Curtis Samuel - Fantasy Points Outlook

Basic Stats Basic Stats

Curtis Samuel
WAS

WR WAS

#51 Wide Receiver

108 Projected Points

ADP: Not Available
Bye: 9
Experience: 4 Yr(s)
Age: 25
Height: 5'11"
Weight: 197
40 Time: 4.31

Weekly Outlook

Week 6 Projections

This player does not have a weekly prediction

Rest Of Way Outlook

Rec Rec Yds Rec TDs Fantasy Pts
2.8 30 0.2 5.4
Week 4
Samuel debuted in Week 4, snagging 4 of 4 targets for 19 yards. Nothing to write home about. But note that Logan Thomas left Sunday’s game with a hamstring injury. And remember, Washington inked Samuel to a 3-year, $34.5 million deal this offseason, so we know expectations are high. With Taylor Heinicke showing more than enough to keep this offense afloat, Samuel could quickly develop into a spot-start WR3.

Basic Stats Preseason Player Analysis

What You Need to Know:

  • Samuel is back with the HC from his 1st 3 years and an OC who was on the Panthers’ offensive staff in 2018 and 2019. Scott Turner spent most of that span as QBs coach under his dad, Norv Turner, but coordinated Carolina’s offense over the final 4 games of 2019.
  • After Washington signed Samuel in free agency -- for $34.5 million over 3 years, with $23 million guaranteed, Turner said: “High energy guy, really intelligent. You can do a lot of different things with him. He’s only 24 years old, I think he’s just scratching the surface on what he’s capable of.”
  • Samuel’s usage has varied quite a bit through his first 4 seasons.
    • He saw a huge boost in slot usage in 2020: 71.4% of snaps, according to Pro Football Focus. Samuel spent just 28.7%, 24.8% and 33.8% of snaps in the slot the previous 3 years.
    • After just 11 total backfield snaps under the Turners in 2018-19, Samuel spent 70 snaps lined up in the backfield for the 2020 Panthers.
  • Samuel’s rushing attempts have climbed every season: 4, 8, 19, 41.
  • His average target depths climbed as well, before last year.
    • Samuel saw a 9.4 ADOT as a 2017 rookie under OC Mike Shula, according to Pro Football Focus.
    • That climbed to 12.2 in 2018 under Norv Turner, then 14.8 in 2019, when Scott Turner took over for his dad late in the year.
    • Samuel’s ADOT shortened to a career-low 7.5 under HC Matt Ruehle and OC Joe Brady last year.
  • Samuel posted the best PFF receiving grade of his career in 2020 and his highest yards per route run to date.
    • His annual YPRR -- starting with 2017 -- have gone: 0.85, 1.66, 0.97, 1.93.
    • The 2020 number ranked 30th among 115 wideouts who saw 30+ targets.
  • Samuel’s downfield-heavy role under the Turners in 2019 didn’t seem to work, but he had Kyle Allen as his QB for nearly all of that. Allen finished 2019 ranked 2nd-worst in deep-ball passing grade among 38 QBs with 15+ deep attempts. He tied Dwayne Haskins for the group’s worst adjusted completion rate to that range.
  • Ryan Fitzpatrick has endured some ups and downs as a deep thrower -- and a QB in general -- but arrives as a clear upgrade over the options for 2020 Washington and 2019 Carolina.

Draft Sharks Bottom Line:

Last time Samuel worked under Scott Turner (and Norv Turner), we got a season of unrealized air yards. He thrived in 2020 in a system that nearly halved his ADOT and multiplied his backfield snaps. Scott Turner has touted Samuel’s versatility, so we’d bet on more variation to his role than what the 2019 Panthers did. But Samuel’s usage will probably also look different from what the 2020 Panthers did. Ultimately, he lands in a place with plenty of opportunity available. Washington sent 110+ targets to 3 players last year: Terry McLaurin, Logan Thomas and J.D. McKissic. Of the 3, only McLaurin belongs in 100+ target territory.

Samuel’s best-ball ADP as of this writing sits right at our WR38 projection for him in PPR. He sports upside from that level if we can get enough good Ryan Fitzpatrick and/or Washington goes heavy on pass volume. (The team finished 2020 as the league’s 9th most pass-heavy.)

Recent Shark Bites View All Shark Bites »

Washington WR Curtis Samuel (groin) is out for Sunday's game vs. the Chiefs. He appears to be looking at another multi-week absence. WR Cam Sims (hamstring) has also been ruled out. WR Dyami Brown (knee) is listed as questionable after a limited week of practice. With WR Terry McLaurin (hamstring) also questionable, Adam Humphries, Deandre Carter and Dax Milne are Washington's only healthy WRs. It's obviously a concern for QB Taylor Heinicke.

View all Curtis Samuel Shark Bites »

Washington WR Curtis Samuel is "week to week" after aggravating his lingering groin injury in Sunday's loss to the Saints, HC Ron Rivera said. Samuel hasn't been able to shake this issue and can be dropped in all but the deepest of fantasy football leagues.

View all Curtis Samuel Shark Bites »

Washington WR Curtis Samuel is questionable to return to Sunday's game vs. the Saints with a groin injury. This is presumably the same issue Samuel has been dealing with since the spring. Stay tuned for an update.

View all Curtis Samuel Shark Bites »

Washington WR Curtis Samuel (groin) is active for today’s game vs. the Saints. Samuel played just 37% of the offensive snaps in his 2021 debut last week and got in just 1 limited practice this week. He’s a shaky fantasy play.

View all Curtis Samuel Shark Bites »

Washington WR Curtis Samuel (groin) is expected to play vs. the Saints today, per NFL Network's Ian Rapoport. Samuel played just 37% of the offensive snaps in his 2021 debut last week and got in just 1 limited practice this week. He's not a viable fantasy option until we know he's at least close to 100%.

View all Curtis Samuel Shark Bites »

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