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Curtis Samuel - Fantasy Points Outlook

Basic Stats Basic Stats

Curtis Samuel
WAS

WR WAS

#38 Wide Receiver

126 Projected Points

ADP: 9.11
Bye: 9
Experience: 4 Yr(s)
Age: 24
Height: 5'11"
Weight: 197
40 Time: 4.31

2021 Projections & Outlook

Scoring

#38 Wide Receiver

126 Projected Points

ADP Rec Rec Yds Rec TDs 100 Fum
9.11 67 788 5 1

3D Projections DS 3D Projections

3d Projection

Med Floor

107.1

DS Projection

126

Consensus

38 other sites
98.7

High Ceiling

161.3

Ceiling Likelihood

Medium
How likely they will reach their ceiling projection

Basic Stats Preseason Player Analysis

What You Need to Know:

  • Samuel is back with the HC from his 1st 3 years and an OC who was on the Panthers’ offensive staff in 2018 and 2019. Scott Turner spent most of that span as QBs coach under his dad, Norv Turner, but coordinated Carolina’s offense over the final 4 games of 2019.
  • After Washington signed Samuel in free agency -- for $34.5 million over 3 years, with $23 million guaranteed, Turner said: “High energy guy, really intelligent. You can do a lot of different things with him. He’s only 24 years old, I think he’s just scratching the surface on what he’s capable of.”
  • Samuel’s usage has varied quite a bit through his first 4 seasons.
    • He saw a huge boost in slot usage in 2020: 71.4% of snaps, according to Pro Football Focus. Samuel spent just 28.7%, 24.8% and 33.8% of snaps in the slot the previous 3 years.
    • After just 11 total backfield snaps under the Turners in 2018-19, Samuel spent 70 snaps lined up in the backfield for the 2020 Panthers.
  • Samuel’s rushing attempts have climbed every season: 4, 8, 19, 41.
  • His average target depths climbed as well, before last year.
    • Samuel saw a 9.4 ADOT as a 2017 rookie under OC Mike Shula, according to Pro Football Focus.
    • That climbed to 12.2 in 2018 under Norv Turner, then 14.8 in 2019, when Scott Turner took over for his dad late in the year.
    • Samuel’s ADOT shortened to a career-low 7.5 under HC Matt Ruehle and OC Joe Brady last year.
  • Samuel posted the best PFF receiving grade of his career in 2020 and his highest yards per route run to date.
    • His annual YPRR -- starting with 2017 -- have gone: 0.85, 1.66, 0.97, 1.93.
    • The 2020 number ranked 30th among 115 wideouts who saw 30+ targets.
  • Samuel’s downfield-heavy role under the Turners in 2019 didn’t seem to work, but he had Kyle Allen as his QB for nearly all of that. Allen finished 2019 ranked 2nd-worst in deep-ball passing grade among 38 QBs with 15+ deep attempts. He tied Dwayne Haskins for the group’s worst adjusted completion rate to that range.
  • Ryan Fitzpatrick has endured some ups and downs as a deep thrower -- and a QB in general -- but arrives as a clear upgrade over the options for 2020 Washington and 2019 Carolina.

Draft Sharks Bottom Line:

Last time Samuel worked under Scott Turner (and Norv Turner), we got a season of unrealized air yards. He thrived in 2020 in a system that nearly halved his ADOT and multiplied his backfield snaps. Scott Turner has touted Samuel’s versatility, so we’d bet on more variation to his role than what the 2019 Panthers did. But Samuel’s usage will probably also look different from what the 2020 Panthers did. Ultimately, he lands in a place with plenty of opportunity available. Washington sent 110+ targets to 3 players last year: Terry McLaurin, Logan Thomas and J.D. McKissic. Of the 3, only McLaurin belongs in 100+ target territory.

Samuel’s best-ball ADP as of this writing sits right at our WR38 projection for him in PPR. He sports upside from that level if we can get enough good Ryan Fitzpatrick and/or Washington goes heavy on pass volume. (The team finished 2020 as the league’s 9th most pass-heavy.)

 

Recent Shark Bites View All Shark Bites »

Washington placed WR Curtis Samuel on the active/PUP list for the start of training camp. Samuel sustained a groin strain during OTAs, so we'd bet on this being a cautious approach to managing that issue. We'll keep an eye on how long the former Panther remains out of action.

View all Curtis Samuel Shark Bites »

Washington beat writer JP Finlay expects WR Curtis Samuel to line up on the outside "more often than not" this season. Samuel excelled last year while playing 61% of his snaps in the slot. He played just 32% in the slot back in 2019 and was much less efficient -- although crappy QB play was at least partly to blame. That 2019 campaign came under OC Scott Turner, who Samuel is reuniting with in Washington. We'll keep an eye on his usage this summer, but we'd prefer to see him inside. Finlay believes that with Samuel playing mostly outside the numbers, Adam Humphries will be the team's #3 and primary slot receiver. That'd leave WR Dyami Brown as no better than the #4 WR.

View all Curtis Samuel Shark Bites »

Washington signed WR Curtis Samuel to a 3-year, $34.5 million deal, ESPN's Adam Schefter reports. It's a nice landing spot. Samuel is familiar with OC Scott Turner's offense after spending 2018 and 2019 with him in Carolina. And he should slide right in as the clear #2 WR behind Terry McLaurin. Samuel improved his numbers all 4 years with the Panthers, culminating with a 77-851-3 line this past season. He also carried 72 times over that 4-year span, including a 19-130-1 line under Turner in 2019.

View all Curtis Samuel Shark Bites »

Panthers WR Curtis Samuel (hamstring) is listed as questionable for Saturday night's game against the Packers. He was added to the injury report and limited on Thursday. We'll look for updates on Samuel and will get his game status around 7 pm ET on Saturday. Samuel has finished as a top-32 half-PPR WR in 6 of his last 7 outings.

View all Curtis Samuel Shark Bites »

Panthers WR Curtis Samuel has been activated from the COVID list. He was deemed a high-risk close contact but never actually tested positive for the virus. He should be able to practice Friday and play against the Broncos this weekend. Samuel has averaged a solid 6.8 targets and 2.2 carries per game over his last 5 and figures to get a usage boost on Sunday with WR D.J. Moore (COVID) out.

View all Curtis Samuel Shark Bites »

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