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Curtis Samuel - Fantasy Points Outlook

Basic StatsCurtis Samuel's Basic Stats

Curtis Samuel
WAS

WR WAS

#75 Wide Receiver

82.2 Projected Points

ADP: 19.11
Bye: 14
Experience: 6 Yr(s)
Age: 27.1
Height: 5'11"
Weight: 195
40 Time: 4.31
Speed Score: 110.50
SPARQx (Rank): 119.90 (89%)
Burst Score (Rank): 122.40 (57%)
Agility Score (Rank): 11.42 (29%)
Catch Radius (Rank): 10.05 (54%)

Curtis Samuel's Weekly Outlook

Week 5 Projections
Rec Rec Yds Rec TDs Fantasy Pts
3.5 37.2 0.2 5.4
Weekly Writeup

Rest Of Way Outlook

Rec Rec Yds Rec TDs Fantasy Pts
3.1 32.2 0.2 4.9

Curtis Samuel's 2023 Projections & Outlook

Scoring

#75 Wide Receiver

78.1 Projected Points

ADP Rec Rec Yds Rec TDs 100 Fum
19.11 50.1 515.1 3.1 1.3 1.4

3D Projections DS 3D Projections

Basic StatsCurtis Samuel's Preseason Player Analysis

View WR Fantasy Rankings »
Bottom Line

Samuel’s hot start to 2022 quickly faded. What remained was a middling WR4, held back by one of the league’s shakiest QB situations.

Washington’s offensive outlook improved a bit for 2023 – especially with the arrival of OC Eric Bieniemy. But when this unit is healthy, the math just doesn’t add up to Samuel becoming more than a spot-start fantasy option.


What We Learned Last Year
  • After an injury-riddled 2021 (hamstring, groin), Samuel played all 17 games in 2022.
  • He started hot, registering the PPR WR10 and WR11 lines over the first two weeks.
    • That stretch included 20 targets (22.9% team share), 15 catches, 133 yards, and 2 TDs.
    • He added five carries and would tally 38 for the season, second most among WRs.
  • Over the final 15 games, Samuel finished as a top-24 WR only three times. And that was with rookie WR Jahan Dotson missing five games (hamstring).
  • On the year, Samuel tallied 64-656-4 on a 16.6% target share, well behind Terry McLaurin’s 22.6%.
  • Samuel remained an elusive, open-field asset. He tallied 1 broken tackle per 8 receptions, the second-best mark among WRs.
  • So why was the early-season production unsustainable? QB play certainly factored in.
    • Taylor Heinicke and Carson Wentz ranked 25th and 29th, respectively, in on-target percentage (per Pro Football Reference).
    • Washington QBs combined for a 62.1% completion rate, a 4.3% TD rate, 6.8 yards per attempt, and a QBR south of 45.0. Ugly.

What to Expect in 2023
  • Washington returns Terry McLaurin and Jahan Dotson as its top two pass catchers.
    • The Commanders didn’t upgrade on Logan Thomas at TE. Samuel projects as the likely No. 3 target.
  • He’ll adjust to new starting QB Sam Howell.
    • Howell started only one game as a Round 5 rookie. Samuel saw 1 target (on 19 pass attempts) vs. Dallas.
  • Eric Bieniemy joined on as the OC, replacing Scott Turner.
    • He spent the past 10 years in Kansas City – five as the RB coach, five as the OC.
    • He worked in a collaborative play-calling role with HC Andy Reid as the Chiefs offense ranked top 6 in points and yards in each of Bieniemy’s seasons as OC.
    • Washington, of course, doesn’t have anyone with Patrick Mahomes’ resume. But a league-average QB season is within Sam Howell’s range of outcomes.
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Curtis Samuel, WR WAS

5:45pm EDT 10/1/23

Curtis Samuel gets involved, scores vs. Eagles

After just 7 total targets and 5 receptions over the previous two games, Commanders WR Curtis Samuel tallied 7 receptions for 51 yards on 8 targets in Sunday's loss to the Eagles. Samuel added a 1-yard TD on his only carry of the game. The combo obviously made for a nice fantasy line, but Washington's elevated passing volume and condensed target distribution helped. Sam Howell attempted 41 passes -- despite taking 5 sacks -- and only threw more than 3 targets to Samuel, Jahan Dotson (9), and Terry McLaurin (10). Samuel has now drawn a target on just 14.3% of Howell's attempts for the season. He's not a lineup option for most leagues, despite an upside matchup with Chicago in Week 5.

View all Curtis Samuel Shark Bites »

Commanders WR Curtis Samuel (illness) has been removed from the Week 3 injury report. He'll play vs. the Bills tomorrow. Samuel has caught all eight of his targets for 73 scoreless yards through two games, adding another 19 yards on two carries.

View all Curtis Samuel Shark Bites »

Commanders WR Curtis Samuel (illness) did not practice on Friday and is listed as questionable for this weekend’s game vs. the Bills. He should be able to play in that one, but hopefully you’re not counting on Samuel in Week 3 fantasy lineups.

View all Curtis Samuel Shark Bites »

Commanders WR Terry McLaurin (turf toe) landed just 2 catches on 6 targets for 31 receiving yards in Sunday’s win vs. the Cardinals. Teammate Curtis Samuel led the team in receiving with 54 yards and a perfect 5-for-5 on his targets. McLaurin has dealt with this toe injury dating back to the preseason and practiced in a limited fashion for much of this week. It’s no surprise he got out-targeted by WR Jahan Dotson (5 for 40 yards on 7 targets) in Week 1, though we expect McLaurin’s impact to increase as he becomes further removed from the ailment. An underrated takeaway to consider before their Week 2 matchup vs. the Broncos is that TE Logan Thomas led the Commanders with 8 targets in this game—something to remember for those in deeper leagues.

View all Terry McLaurin Shark Bites »

Related Players Curtis Samuel, Logan Thomas, Jahan Dotson

Commanders HC Ron Rivera noted how WR Curtis Samuel’s skill set fits the new offense. Washington is now under the direction of OC Eric Bieniemy. “I think it fits in very well,” Rivera said. “Go back and get an opportunity to look at the stuff that they did in Kansas City and look at how creative and inventive they have been over the years with the receivers that they've had. Everything from running the jet sweeps to going vertical to working underneath, and the coverages against the coverages. You know, it's about getting the ball into the hands as quick as possible in as much space as possible, allowing these guys to make plays.” Highlighting Samuel’s catch-and-run ability makes sense. But we’re likely talking about the No. 3 option for an offense with QB concerns. Samuel, 27, projects as a bench stash to begin the season.

View all Curtis Samuel Shark Bites »

Dynasty Overview View WR Dynasty Rankings »

Curtis Samuel, WR WAS
Dynasty MVP 59.9
Position Rank #121 WR
3yr Projection
5yr Projection
10yr Projection
201
309
508
Dynasty Write-up
While Samuel stayed healthy last year, he faded after a hot start. New OC Eric Bieniemy adds optimism to this offense for '23. Samuel, though, figures to remain the clear WR3 behind Terry McLaurin and Jahan Dotson. The former Panther also enters a contract season.

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