Bottom Line

Singletary signed a one-year deal worth just $2.75 million. That alone isn’t enough to guarantee a big role.

But he’s well set up to grab a significant share of work as the Texans’ likely No. 2 RB. And how big that share can be depends on multiple unknowns, including:

• New coaching staff, including first-time OC
• Offense with many new players, including QB and multiple RBs
• Team success

As long as his ADP doesn’t climb out of RB4 range, Singletary makes sense as a reserve option across formats.

What We Learned Last Year

• Singletary closed out four years as a work-share back with the Bills.
  • His career high (so far) in carries per game was the 12.6 of his rookie year.
  • Singletary then hit his low mark of 9.8 in 2020 before averaging 11.1 each of the past two years.
  • He averaged 2.4 receptions per game each of his four years.
• Singletary posted his two best Pro Football Focus rushing grades the past two years. His rankings by year in that category (among 70+ carry RBs):
  • T-14th
  • 35th
  • 11th
  • 10th
• He has proved consistently solid as a runner by other metrics as well. That includes finishing in positive territory in rushing yards over expected each year.
  • Singletary ranked 17th among 48 qualifying RBs at 0.43 RYOE per carry in 2019.
  • The three years since produced rates of 0.29, 0.28, and 0.15.
  • Dameon Pierce went for 0.37 last year (24th of 48), albeit in a different offense.
• Singletary hasn’t rated well as a receiver.
  • His Football Outsiders’ receiving DVOA has rated below the average level in each of his four seasons.
  • Singletary’s career-best yards-per-route (0.89) tied for just 53rd among 59 RBs with 20+ targets back in his rookie year (2019).
  • His best PFF receiving grade came last season, and tied for just 38th among 61 RBs with 20+ targets.
• Singletary did dramatically improve his pass-blocking grade in 2022.
  • After ranking no higher than 34th at the position through three seasons, he checked in 10th. And Singletary did so on the third-most pass-blocking reps among all RBs.

What to Expect in 2023

• This year’s Texans are sure to spread the backfield work more than last year’s version. Dameon Pierce drew 74% of carries over his 13 games. That would sit at or near the top of the league any season.
• Houston is also likely to lean at least a bit more toward the run than last year. The 2022 Texans ran on 39.2% of plays, the league’s eighth-lowest rate.
  • New HC Demeco Ryans and OC Bobby Slowik come from Kyle Shanahan’s 49ers staff. Just one of the six Niners teams they helped coach ran on less than 41.8% of plays.
  • Overall, those teams averaged 43.8% run.
  • This year’s rushing volume in Houston will also depend some on the success of the Texans’ offense and team overall. More leading/winning = more rushing.
• Singletary’s most likely edge vs. Pierce comes in the passing game. Neither has impressed as a receiver so far, but Singletary is coming off a good year in pass protection. That should prove especially attractive to a coaching staff breaking in rookie QB C.J. Stroud.
• Pierce did, at least, impress coaches and teammates with his improvement in pass protection through early workouts this spring.
• Mike Boone is the other backfield import. He signed a two-year deal, but that includes just $300,000 in guarantees. Boone has flashed ability at times but has just 99 carries and 18 catches through five pro seasons. He’s unlikely to be a significant factor.